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SAS Notes for SAS®9 - 65925: Clicking a URL for a stored process in Excel brings up the SAS Stored Process Web Application Welcome page

After you submit a stored process from the SAS Stored Process Web Application, the generated URL is placed into a cell in a Microsoft Excel worksheet. When you click this URL, you expect that the stored process is sub




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SAS Notes for SAS®9 - 34114: Creating a detailed SAS Stored Process Server log by default

The SAS Stored Process Server does not create a detailed log file by default. However, you can create a detailed SAS Stored Process Server log file (that will contain information about all of the code that was executed) by using this approach. AUTO




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UIowa and UCLA studying ways to reduce risk of COVID-19 infection in emergency room staff

(University of Iowa Health Care) A $3.7 million grant from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been awarded to the University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine and the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA to study ways to reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection among frontline health care workers in hospital emergency departments.




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Minimum energy requirements for microbial communities to live predicted

(University of Warwick) A microbial community is a complex, dynamic system composed of hundreds of species and their interactions, they are found in oceans, soil, animal guts and plant roots. Each system feeds the Earth's ecosystem and their own growth, as they each have their own metabolism that underpin biogeochemical cycles. Researchers from the School of Life Sciences at the University of Warwick have produced an extendable thermodynamic model for simulating the dynamics of microbial communities.




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New freeze-resistant trichinella species discovered in wolverines

(US Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service) A new freeze-resistant Trichinella species has been discovered in wolverines by Agricultural Research Service scientists and their colleagues. Trichinella are parasites that cause the disease trichinosis (formally referred to as trichinellosis), which people can get by eating raw or undercooked meat from infected animals.




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Mats made from nanofibers linked to a red wine chemical could help prevent oxidation

(Texas A&M University) Spoiling foods, souring wine and worsening wounds have a common culprit -- a process called oxidation. Although the ill effects of these chemical reactions can be curtailed by antioxidants, creating a sturdy platform capable of providing prolonged antioxidant activity is an ongoing challenge.




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Ocean acidification prediction now possible years in advance

(University of Colorado at Boulder) CU Boulder researchers have developed a method that could enable scientists to accurately forecast ocean acidity up to five years in advance. This would enable fisheries and communities that depend on seafood negatively affected by ocean acidification to adapt to changing conditions in real time, improving economic and food security in the next few decades.




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Drs. Rasheeda Hall and Kah Poh (Melissa) Loh honored With AGS's Arti Hurria Memorial Award

(American Geriatrics Society) The American Geriatrics Society (AGS) and the AGS Health in Aging Foundation today conferred one of their newest honors, the Arti Hurria Memorial Award for Emerging Investigators in Internal Medicine Focused on the Care of Older Adults, on two experts: Rasheeda Hall, MD, a board-certified nephrologist and assistant professor of medicine at Duke University; and Kah Poh (Melissa) Loh, MBBCh, BAO, a board-certified internist, hematologist, and oncologist at the University of Rochester Medical Center.




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Redesign of a Diabetes System of Care Using an All-or-None Diabetes Bundle to Build Teamwork and Improve Intermediate Outcomes

Frederick J. Bloom
Jul 1, 2010; 23:165-169
From Research to Practice




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An Uncertain Future: Predicting the Economy After COVID-19

Abby Joseph Cohen and Alexis Crow share insights on the economic impact of COVID-19 in a discussion moderated by Pierre Yared. 




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'Our Shared Humanity': The Legacy of Kofi Annan

Research Event

3 June 2019 - 10:00am to 4 June 2019 - 5:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

This event is now full and registration has closed.

Participants include

Zeinab Badawi, Presenter, BBC Global Questions and HardTalk
Lakhdar Brahimi, The Elders; Chair, Panel on United Nations Peace Operations (2000)
Alan Doss, President, Kofi Annan Foundation 
Raila Odinga, High Representative for Infrastructure Development, African Union; Prime Minister of Kenya (2008-13)
Patrick Gaspard, President, Open Society Foundations
Michèle Griffin, Senior Policy Advisor to the UN Secretary-General
Ian Martin, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General in East Timor (1999), Nepal (2007-09) and Libya (2011-12)
Strive Masiyiwa, Chair of the Board, AGRA; CEO, Econet Wireless
Amina Mohammed, Deputy Secretary-General, United Nations
Kumi Naidoo, Secretary-General, Amnesty International
Danny Sriskandarajah, Chief Executive, Oxfam
Mark Suzman, Chief Strategy Officer and President of Global Policy and Advocacy, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

In a decade as UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan championed a vision of global governance anchored in shared responsibility and the rights and dignity of the individual.

Confronted with multiple global crises that raised questions about the UN’s purpose, Annan pressed for human rights and development to be at the centre of international efforts and sought to broaden participation in shaping and delivering solutions to global challenges.

As the UN’s 75th anniversary approaches, this conference will explore Annan’s legacy for the future of global governance.

Questions include the appropriate response to high-profile and ongoing failures to prevent human rights atrocities and protect victims of conflict, the impact of technology on democracy, lessons from the Millennium Development Goals for the Sustainable Development Goals and ways to meaningfully involve civil society, businesses and individuals in addressing global challenges.

The conference will bring together key figures involved in Annan’s initiatives with actors currently engaged in conflict prevention, humanitarian action, human rights and development to identify lessons and generate forward-looking recommendations.

This conference is being held as part of a series, including a public event hosted by UNA-UK at Central Hall in Westminster, exploring Kofi Annan's legacy.

This initiative is generously supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Open Society Foundations and enjoys the cooperation of the Kofi Annan Foundation.

Chanu Peiris

Programme Manager, International Law
+44 (0)20 7314 3686




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‘Our Shared Humanity’ – The Legacy of Kofi Annan

23 October 2019

The ‘Our Shared Humanity’ conference explored Kofi Annan’s legacy for the future of global governance in the run-up to the UN’s 75th anniversary. This paper summarizes key points raised during the conference, and presents the substantive recommendations that emerged from the discussion.

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Kofi Annan meets with high-school students in Kabul, Afghanistan, in January 2002. Photo: Getty Images.

About the Conference

In the run-up to the UN’s 75th anniversary and almost a year after his death, Chatham House and the United Nations Association – UK (UNA-UK) held a two-day conference to explore Kofi Annan’s legacy in the context of the current period of global uncertainty.

The ‘Our Shared Humanity’ conference brought together a global and diverse group of individualsworking on peace and security, human rights and development issues to:

  • Reflect critically on Annan’s record, and capture lessons learned from his tenure as UN secretary-general, and his later work as a mediator and elder statesperson; and
  • Generate recommendations for current policymakers and influencers.

This paper summarizes key points raised during each session of the conference, and presents the substantive recommendations that emerged from the discussion.

In order to bring the conference themes to a wider audience, UNA-UK held a public event on the eve of the first day of the conference at Central Hall Westminster – where the UN had held its first ever meetings in 1946 – with speakers including Nane Annan, Sherrie Westin (president of global impact and philanthropy, Sesame Workshop), Amina Mohammed (current UN deputy secretary-general) and Mary Robinson (chair of The Elders and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights).
 




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MtrP, a putative methyltransferase in Corynebacteria, is required for optimal membrane transport of trehalose mycolates [Lipids]

Pathogenic bacteria of the genera Mycobacterium and Corynebacterium cause severe human diseases such as tuberculosis (Mycobacterium tuberculosis) and diphtheria (Corynebacterium diphtheriae). The cells of these species are surrounded by protective cell walls rich in long-chain mycolic acids. These fatty acids are conjugated to the disaccharide trehalose on the cytoplasmic side of the bacterial cell membrane. They are then transported across the membrane to the periplasm where they act as donors for other reactions. We have previously shown that transient acetylation of the glycolipid trehalose monohydroxycorynomycolate (hTMCM) enables its efficient transport to the periplasm in Corynebacterium glutamicum and that acetylation is mediated by the membrane protein TmaT. Here, we show that a putative methyltransferase, encoded at the same genetic locus as TmaT, is also required for optimal hTMCM transport. Deletion of the C. glutamicum gene NCgl2764 (Rv0224c in M. tuberculosis) abolished acetyltrehalose monocorynomycolate (AcTMCM) synthesis, leading to accumulation of hTMCM in the inner membrane and delaying its conversion to trehalose dihydroxycorynomycolate (h2TDCM). Complementation with NCgl2764 normalized turnover of hTMCM to h2TDCM. In contrast, complementation with NCgl2764 derivatives mutated at residues essential for methyltransferase activity failed to rectify the defect, suggesting that NCgl2764/Rv0224c encodes a methyltransferase, designated here as MtrP. Comprehensive analyses of the individual mtrP and tmaT mutants and of a double mutant revealed strikingly similar changes across several lipid classes compared with WT bacteria. These findings indicate that both MtrP and TmaT have nonredundant roles in regulating AcTMCM synthesis, revealing additional complexity in the regulation of trehalose mycolate transport in the Corynebacterineae.




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HIGD2A is required for assembly of the COX3 module of human mitochondrial complex IV

Daniella H Hock
Apr 21, 2020; 0:RA120.002076v1-mcp.RA120.002076
Research




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Chemical Genetics of AGC-kinases Reveals Shared Targets of Ypk1, Protein Kinase A and Sch9

Michael Plank
Apr 1, 2020; 19:655-671
Research




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Flow-induced reorganization of laminin-integrin networks within the endothelial basement membrane uncovered by proteomics

Eelke P. Béguin
Apr 24, 2020; 0:RA120.001964v1-mcp.RA120.001964
Research




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Discovery of a Redox Thiol Switch: Implications for Cellular Energy Metabolism

Xing-Huang Gao
May 1, 2020; 19:852-870
Research




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Compliance Checklists No Longer Required at Initial Manuscript Submission

Alma L. Burlingame
Apr 1, 2020; 19:571-571
Editorial




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Strengthening Urban Preparedness and Resilience Against Biological Threats in Accra

Invitation Only Research Event

1 March 2019 - 10:30am to 2 March 2019 - 3:00pm

Chatham House, London

Capacity to contain and respond to biological threats varies considerably across the world. Yet such preparedness is vital for prevention, impact-reduction and resilience in the face of biological events, whether they be natural or deliberate outbreaks.

Chatham House is conducting a series of meetings to strengthen urban preparedness for, and resilience against, biological threats in African countries. This meeting will examine the preparedness and prevention mechanisms in Accra, reviewing the comprehensiveness of city-level preparedness.  

This meeting will focus on the formation and implementation of city-level action plans in the context of preparedness for managing biological threats. It will also explore how local authorities are contributing to this effort with their knowledge and expertise.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Nilza Amaral

Project Manager, International Security Programme




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Artificial Intelligence Prediction and Counterterrorism

9 August 2019

The use of AI in counterterrorism is not inherently wrong, and this paper suggests some necessary conditions for legitimate use of AI as part of a predictive approach to counterterrorism on the part of liberal democratic states.

Kathleen McKendrick

British Army Officer, Former Visiting Research Fellow at Chatham House

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Surveillance cameras manufactured by Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co. at a testing station near the company’s headquarters in Hangzhou, China. Photo: Getty Images

Summary

  • The use of predictive artificial intelligence (AI) in countering terrorism is often assumed to have a deleterious effect on human rights, generating spectres of ‘pre-crime’ punishment and surveillance states. However, the well-regulated use of new capabilities may enhance states’ abilities to protect citizens’ right to life, while at the same time improving adherence to principles intended to protect other human rights, such as transparency, proportionality and freedom from unfair discrimination. The same regulatory framework could also contribute to safeguarding against broader misuse of related technologies.
  • Most states focus on preventing terrorist attacks, rather than reacting to them. As such, prediction is already central to effective counterterrorism. AI allows higher volumes of data to be analysed, and may perceive patterns in those data that would, for reasons of both volume and dimensionality, otherwise be beyond the capacity of human interpretation. The impact of this is that traditional methods of investigation that work outwards from known suspects may be supplemented by methods that analyse the activity of a broad section of an entire population to identify previously unknown threats.
  • Developments in AI have amplified the ability to conduct surveillance without being constrained by resources. Facial recognition technology, for instance, may enable the complete automation of surveillance using CCTV in public places in the near future.
  • The current way predictive AI capabilities are used presents a number of interrelated problems from both a human rights and a practical perspective. Where limitations and regulations do exist, they may have the effect of curtailing the utility of approaches that apply AI, while not necessarily safeguarding human rights to an adequate extent.
  • The infringement of privacy associated with the automated analysis of certain types of public data is not wrong in principle, but the analysis must be conducted within a robust legal and policy framework that places sensible limitations on interventions based on its results.
  • In future, broader access to less intrusive aspects of public data, direct regulation of how those data are used – including oversight of activities by private-sector actors – and the imposition of technical as well as regulatory safeguards may improve both operational performance and compliance with human rights legislation. It is important that any such measures proceed in a manner that is sensitive to the impact on other rights such as freedom of expression, and freedom of association and assembly.




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A World Without the NPT Redux

Invitation Only Research Event

10 February 2020 - 3:00pm to 4:30pm

Chatham House

Event participants

Dr Joseph Pilat, Los Alamos National Laboratory and Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Chair: Dr Patricia Lewis, Research Director, International Security Programme, Chatham House

In the late 1980s, with the 1995 decision on the future of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) looming, Joseph Pilat wrote an essay on "A World without the NPT?" which was published in The International Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime in the 1990s, edited by John Simpson (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1986). In this piece, the speaker attempted to think through the effects of a limited or no agreement on extension to the treaty and regime, to nuclear non-proliferation, arms control and energy and to the broader geopolitical landscape. The purpose was not a prediction, but a cautionary tale of the value of the treaty.

Now, nearly 25 years after indefinite extension and 50 years after the NPT's entry into force, the treaty and the regime are facing serious challenges. In this roundtable meeting, the speaker will revisit the questions he addressed thirty years ago.




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Predictions and Policymaking: Complex Modelling Beyond COVID-19

1 April 2020

Yasmin Afina

Research Assistant, International Security Programme

Calum Inverarity

Research Analyst and Coordinator, International Security Programme
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the potential of complex systems modelling for policymaking but it is crucial to also understand its limitations.

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A member of the media wearing a protective face mask works in Downing Street where Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson is self-isolating in central London, 27 March 2020. Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images.

Complex systems models have played a significant role in informing and shaping the public health measures adopted by governments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. For instance, modelling carried out by a team at Imperial College London is widely reported to have driven the approach in the UK from a strategy of mitigation to one of suppression.

Complex systems modelling will increasingly feed into policymaking by predicting a range of potential correlations, results and outcomes based on a set of parameters, assumptions, data and pre-defined interactions. It is already instrumental in developing risk mitigation and resilience measures to address and prepare for existential crises such as pandemics, prospects of a nuclear war, as well as climate change.

The human factor

In the end, model-driven approaches must stand up to the test of real-life data. Modelling for policymaking must take into account a number of caveats and limitations. Models are developed to help answer specific questions, and their predictions will depend on the hypotheses and definitions set by the modellers, which are subject to their individual and collective biases and assumptions. For instance, the models developed by Imperial College came with the caveated assumption that a policy of social distancing for people over 70 will have a 75 per cent compliance rate. This assumption is based on the modellers’ own perceptions of demographics and society, and may not reflect all societal factors that could impact this compliance rate in real life, such as gender, age, ethnicity, genetic diversity, economic stability, as well as access to food, supplies and healthcare. This is why modelling benefits from a cognitively diverse team who bring a wide range of knowledge and understanding to the early creation of a model.

The potential of artificial intelligence

Machine learning, or artificial intelligence (AI), has the potential to advance the capacity and accuracy of modelling techniques by identifying new patterns and interactions, and overcoming some of the limitations resulting from human assumptions and bias. Yet, increasing reliance on these techniques raises the issue of explainability. Policymakers need to be fully aware and understand the model, assumptions and input data behind any predictions and must be able to communicate this aspect of modelling in order to uphold democratic accountability and transparency in public decision-making.

In addition, models using machine learning techniques require extensive amounts of data, which must also be of high quality and as free from bias as possible to ensure accuracy and address the issues at stake. Although technology may be used in the process (i.e. automated extraction and processing of information with big data), data is ultimately created, collected, aggregated and analysed by and for human users. Datasets will reflect the individual and collective biases and assumptions of those creating, collecting, processing and analysing this data. Algorithmic bias is inevitable, and it is essential that policy- and decision-makers are fully aware of how reliable the systems are, as well as their potential social implications.

The age of distrust

Increasing use of emerging technologies for data- and evidence-based policymaking is taking place, paradoxically, in an era of growing mistrust towards expertise and experts, as infamously surmised by Michael Gove. Policymakers and subject-matter experts have faced increased public scrutiny of their findings and the resultant policies that they have been used to justify.

This distrust and scepticism within public discourse has only been fuelled by an ever-increasing availability of diffuse sources of information, not all of which are verifiable and robust. This has caused tension between experts, policymakers and public, which has led to conflicts and uncertainty over what data and predictions can be trusted, and to what degree. This dynamic is exacerbated when considering that certain individuals may purposefully misappropriate, or simply misinterpret, data to support their argument or policies. Politicians are presently considered the least trusted professionals by the UK public, highlighting the importance of better and more effective communication between the scientific community, policymakers and the populations affected by policy decisions.

Acknowledging limitations

While measures can and should be built in to improve the transparency and robustness of scientific models in order to counteract these common criticisms, it is important to acknowledge that there are limitations to the steps that can be taken. This is particularly the case when dealing with predictions of future events, which inherently involve degrees of uncertainty that cannot be fully accounted for by human or machine. As a result, if not carefully considered and communicated, the increased use of complex modelling in policymaking holds the potential to undermine and obfuscate the policymaking process, which may contribute towards significant mistakes being made, increased uncertainty, lack of trust in the models and in the political process and further disaffection of citizens.

The potential contribution of complexity modelling to the work of policymakers is undeniable. However, it is imperative to appreciate the inner workings and limitations of these models, such as the biases that underpin their functioning and the uncertainties that they will not be fully capable of accounting for, in spite of their immense power. They must be tested against the data, again and again, as new information becomes available or there is a risk of scientific models becoming embroiled in partisan politicization and potentially weaponized for political purposes. It is therefore important not to consider these models as oracles, but instead as one of many contributions to the process of policymaking.




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Legal Provision for Crisis Preparedness: Foresight not Hindsight

21 April 2020

Dr Patricia Lewis

Research Director, Conflict, Science & Transformation; Director, International Security Programme
COVID-19 is proving to be a grave threat to humanity. But this is not a one-off, there will be future crises, and we can be better prepared to mitigate them.

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Examining a patient while testing for COVID-19 at the Velocity Urgent Care in Woodbridge, Virginia. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images.

A controversial debate during COVID-19 is the state of readiness within governments and health systems for a pandemic, with lines of the debate drawn on the issues of testing provision, personal protective equipment (PPE), and the speed of decision-making.

President Macron in a speech to the nation admitted French medical workers did not have enough PPE and that mistakes had been made: ‘Were we prepared for this crisis? We have to say that no, we weren’t, but we have to admit our errors … and we will learn from this’.

In reality few governments were fully prepared. In years to come, all will ask: ‘how could we have been better prepared, what did we do wrong, and what can we learn?’. But after every crisis, governments ask these same questions.

Most countries have put in place national risk assessments and established processes and systems to monitor and stress-test crisis-preparedness. So why have some countries been seemingly better prepared?

Comparing different approaches

Some have had more time and been able to watch the spread of the disease and learn from those countries that had it first. Others have taken their own routes, and there will be much to learn from comparing these different approaches in the longer run.

Governments in Asia have been strongly influenced by the experience of the SARS epidemic in 2002-3 and - South Korea in particular - the MERS-CoV outbreak in 2015 which was the largest outside the Middle East. Several carried out preparatory work in terms of risk assessment, preparedness measures and resilience planning for a wide range of threats.

Case Study of Preparedness: South Korea

By 2007, South Korea had established the Division of Public Health Crisis Response in Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) and, in 2016, the KCDC Center for Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response had established a round-the-clock Emergency Operations Center with rapid response teams.

KCDC is responsible for the distribution of antiviral stockpiles to 16 cities and provinces that are required by law to hold and manage antiviral stockpiles.

And, at the international level, there are frameworks for preparedness for pandemics. The International Health Regulations (IHR) - adopted at the 2005 World Health Assembly and binding on member states - require countries to report certain disease outbreaks and public health events to the World Health Organization (WHO) and ‘prevent, protect against, control and provide a public health response to the international spread of disease in ways that are commensurate with and restricted to public health risks, and which avoid unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade’.

Under IHR, governments committed to a programme of building core capacities including coordination, surveillance, response and preparedness. The UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk highlights disaster preparedness for effective response as one of its main purposes and has already incorporated these measures into the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and other Agenda 2030 initiatives. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has said COVID-19 ‘poses a significant threat to the maintenance of international peace and security’ and that ‘a signal of unity and resolve from the Council would count for a lot at this anxious time’.

Case Study of Preparedness: United States

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Center for Disease Control (CDC) established PERRC – the Preparedness for Emergency Response Research Centers - as a requirement of the 2006 Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act, which required research to ‘improve federal, state, local, and tribal public health preparedness and response systems’.

The 2006 Act has since been supplanted by the 2019 Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness and Advancing Innovation Act. This created the post of Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) in the Department for Health and Human Services (HHS) and authorised the development and acquisitions of medical countermeasures and a quadrennial National Health Security Strategy.

The 2019 Act also set in place a number of measures including the requirement for the US government to re-evaluate several important metrics of the Public Health Emergency Preparedness cooperative agreement and the Hospital Preparedness Program, and a requirement for a report on the states of preparedness and response in US healthcare facilities.

This pandemic looks set to continue to be a grave threat to humanity. But there will also be future pandemics – whether another type of coronavirus or a new influenza virus – and our species will be threatened again, we just don’t know when.

Other disasters too will befall us – we already see the impacts of climate change arriving on our doorsteps characterised by increased numbers and intensity of floods, hurricanes, fires, crop failure and other manifestations of a warming, increasingly turbulent atmosphere and we will continue to suffer major volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis. All high impact, unknown probability events.

Preparedness for an unknown future is expensive and requires a great deal of effort for events that may not happen within the preparers’ lifetimes. It is hard to imagine now, but people will forget this crisis, and revert to their imagined projections of the future where crises don’t occur, and progress follows progress. But history shows us otherwise.

Preparations for future crises always fall prey to financial cuts and austerity measures in lean times unless there is a mechanism to prevent that. Cost-benefit analyses will understandably tend to prioritise the urgent over the long-term. So governments should put in place legislation – or strengthen existing legislation – now to ensure their countries are as prepared as possible for whatever crisis is coming.

Such a legal requirement would require governments to report back to parliament every year on the state of their national preparations detailing such measures as:

  • The exact levels of stocks of essential materials (including medical equipment)
  • The ability of hospitals to cope with large influx of patients
  • How many drills, exercises and simulations had been organised – and their findings
  • What was being done to implement lessons learned & improve preparedness

In addition, further actions should be taken:

  • Parliamentary committees such as the UK Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy should scrutinise the government’s readiness for the potential threats outlined in the National Risk register for Civil Emergencies in-depth on an annual basis.
  • Parliamentarians, including ministers, with responsibility for national security and resilience should participate in drills, table-top exercises and simulations to see for themselves the problems inherent with dealing with crises.
  • All governments should have a minister (or equivalent) with the sole responsibility for national crisis preparedness and resilience. The Minister would be empowered to liaise internationally and coordinate local responses such as local resilience groups.
  • There should be ring-fenced budget lines in annual budgets specifically for preparedness and resilience measures, annually reported on and assessed by parliaments as part of the due diligence process.

And at the international level:

  • The UN Security Council should establish a Crisis Preparedness Committee to bolster the ability of United Nations Member States to respond to international crisis such as pandemics, within their borders and across regions. The Committee would function in a similar fashion as the Counter Terrorism Committee that was established following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States.
  • States should present reports on their level of preparedness to the UN Security Council. The Crisis Preparedness Committee could establish a group of experts who would conduct expert assessments of each member state’s risks and preparedness and facilitate technical assistance as required.
  • Regional bodies such as the OSCE, ASEAN and ARF, the AU, the OAS, the PIF etc could also request national reports on crisis preparedness for discussion and cooperation at the regional level.

COVID-19 has been referred to as the 9/11 of crisis preparedness and response. Just as that shocking terrorist attack shifted the world and created a series of measures to address terrorism, we now recognise our security frameworks need far more emphasis on being prepared and being resilient. Whatever has been done in the past, it is clear that was nowhere near enough and that has to change.

Case Study of Preparedness: The UK

The National Risk Register was first published in 2008 as part of the undertakings laid out in the National Security Strategy (the UK also published the Biological Security Strategy in July 2018). Now entitled the National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies it has been updated regularly to analyse the risks of major emergencies that could affect the UK in the next five years and provide resilience advice and guidance.

The latest edition - produced in 2017 when the UK had a Minister for Government Resilience and Efficiency - placed the risk of a pandemic influenza in the ‘highly likely and most severe’ category. It stood out from all the other identified risks, whereas an emerging disease (such as COVID-19) was identified as ‘highly likely but with moderate impact’.

However, much preparatory work for an influenza pandemic is the same as for COVID-19, particularly in prepositioning large stocks of PPE, readiness within large hospitals, and the creation of new hospitals and facilities.

One key issue is that the 2017 NHS Operating Framework for Managing the Response to Pandemic Influenza was dependent on pre-positioned ’just in case’ stockpiles of PPE. But as it became clear the PPE stocks were not adequate for the pandemic, it was reported that recommendations about the stockpile by NERVTAG (the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group which advises the government on the threat posed by new and emerging respiratory viruses) had been subjected to an ‘economic assessment’ and decisions reversed on, for example, eye protection.

The UK chief medical officer Dame Sally Davies, when speaking at the World Health Organization about Operation Cygnus – a 2016 three-day exercise on a flu pandemic in the UK – reportedly said the UK was not ready for a severe flu attack and ‘a lot of things need improving’.

Aware of the significance of the situation, the UK Parliamentary Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy launched an inquiry in 2019 on ‘Biosecurity and human health: preparing for emerging infectious diseases and bioweapons’ which intended to coordinate a cross-government approach to biosecurity threats. But the inquiry had to postpone its oral hearings scheduled for late October 2019 and, because of the general election in December 2019, the committee was obliged to close the inquiry.




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Combined Visual and Semi-quantitative Evaluation Improves Outcome Prediction by Early Mid-treatment 18F-fluoro-deoxi-glucose Positron Emission Tomography in Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma.

The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive and prognostic value of interim FDG PET (iPET) in evaluating early response to immuno-chemotherapy after two cycles (PET-2) in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) by applying two different methods of interpretation: the Deauville visual five-point scale (5-PS) and a change in standardised uptake value by semi-quantitative evaluation. Methods: 145 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL underwent pre-treatment PET (PET-0) and PET-2 assessment. PET-2 was classified according to both the visual 5-PS and percentage SUV changes (SUV). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to compare the accuracy of the two methods for predicting progression-free survival (PFS). Survival estimates, based on each method separately and combined, were calculated for iPET-positive (iPET+) and iPET-negative (iPET–) groups and compared. Results: Both with visual and SUV-based evaluations significant differences were found between the PFS of iPET– and iPET+ patient groups (p<0.001). Visually the best negative (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) occurred when iPET was defined as positive if Deauville score 4-5 (89% and 59%, respectively). Using the 66% SUV cut-off value, reported previously, NPV and PPV were 80 and 76%, respectively. SUV at 48.9% cut-off point, reported for the first time here, produced 100% specificity along with the highest sensitivity (24%). Visual and semi-quantitative SUV<48.9% assessment of each PET-2 gave the same PET-2 classification (positive or negative) in 70% (102/145) of all patients. This combined classification delivered NPV and PPV of 89% and 100% respectively, and all iPET+ patients failed to achieve or remain in remission. Conclusion: In this large consistently treated and assessed series of DLBCL, iPET had good prognostic value interpreted either visually or semi-quantitatively. We determined that the most effective SUV cut-off was at 48.9%, and that when combined with visual 5-PS assessment, a positive PET-2 was highly predictive of treatment failure.




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Pre-treatment 18F-FDG PET/CT Radiomics predict local recurrence in patients treated with stereotactic radiotherapy for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer: a multicentric study

Purpose: The aim of this retrospective multicentric study was to develop and evaluate a prognostic FDG PET/CT radiomics signature in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with stereotactic radiotherapy (SBRT). Material and Methods: Patients from 3 different centers (n = 27, 29 and 8) were pooled to constitute the training set, whereas the patients from a fourth center (n = 23) were used as the testing set. The primary endpoint was local control (LC). The primary tumour was semi-automatically delineated in the PET images using the Fuzzy locally adaptive Bayesian algorithm, and manually in the low-dose CT images. A total of 184 IBSI-compliant radiomic features were extracted. Seven clinical and treatment parameters were included. We used ComBat to harmonize radiomic features extracted from the four institutions relying on different PET/CT scanners. In the training set, variables found significant in the univariate analysis were fed into a multivariate regression model and models were built by combining independent prognostic factors. Results: Median follow-up was 21.1 (1.7 – 63.4) and 25.5 (7.7 – 57.8) months in training and testing sets respectively. In univariate analysis, none of the clinical variables, 2 PET and 2 CT features were significantly predictive of LC. The best predictive models in the training set were obtained by combining one feature from PET, namely information correlation 2 (IC2) and one from CT (Flatness), reaching a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 96%. Another model combining 2 PET features (IC2 and Strength), reached sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 88%, both with an undefined hazard ratio (HR) (p<0.001). The latter model obtained an accuracy of 0.91 (sensitivity 100%, specificity 81%), with a HR undefined (P = 0.023) in the testing set, however other models relying on CT radiomics features only or the combination of PET and CT features failed to validate in the testing set. Conclusion: We showed that two radiomic features derived from FDG PET were independently associated with LC in patients with NSCLC undergoing SBRT and could be combined in an accurate predictive model. This model could provide local relapse-related information and could be helpful in clinical decision-making.




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Inflammation-based index and 68Ga-DOTATOC PET-derived uptake and volumetric parameters predict outcome in neuroendocrine tumor patients treated with 90Y-DOTATOC

We performed post-hoc analyses on the utility of pre-therapeutic and early interim 68Ga-DOTA-Tyr3-octreotide (68Ga-DOTATOC) positron emission tomography (PET) tumor uptake and volumetric parameters and a recently proposed biomarker, the inflammation-based index (IBI), for peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) in neuroendocrine tumor (NET) patients treated with 90Y-DOTATOC in the setting of a prospective phase II trial. Methods: Forty-three NET patients received up to four cycles of 1.85 GBq/m²/cycle 90Y-DOTATOC with a maximal kidney biologic effective dose of 37 Gy. All patients underwent a 68Ga-DOTATOC PET/computed tomography (CT) at baseline and seven weeks after the first PRRT cycle. 68Ga-DOTATOC-avid tumor lesions were semi-automatically delineated using a customized standardized uptake value (SUV) threshold-based approach. PRRT response was assessed on CT using RECIST 1.1. Results: Median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 13.9 and 22.3 months, respectively. An SUVmean higher than 13.7 (75th percentile (P75)) was associated with better survival (hazard ratio (HR) 0.45; P = 0.024), whereas a 68Ga-DOTATOC-avid tumor volume higher than 578 ml (P75) was associated with worse OS (HR 2.18; P = 0.037). Elevated baseline IBI was associated with worse OS (HR 3.90; P = 0.001). Multivariate analysis corroborated independent associations between OS and SUVmean (P = 0.016) and IBI (P = 0.015). No significant correlations with PFS were found. A composite score based on SUVmean and IBI allowed to further stratify patients in three categories with significantly different survival. On early interim PET, a decrease in SUVmean of more than 17% (P75) was associated with worse survival (HR 2.29; P = 0.024). Conclusion: Normal baseline IBI and high 68Ga-DOTATOC tumor uptake predict better outcome in NET patients treated with 90Y-DOTATOC. This can be used for treatment personalization. Interim 68Ga-DOTATOC PET does not provide information for treatment personalization.




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18F-fluorodexyglucose Position Emission Tomography identifies altered brain metabolism in patients with Cri du Chat syndrome

Cri-Du-Chat Syndrome (CdCs) is a rare genetic disease caused by a deletion in the short arm of chromosome 5 (5p) with a variable clinical spectrum. To date no study in literature has ever investigated the alterations of brain glucose metabolism in these subjects by means of [18F]fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT). The aims of this study were to detect difference in brain FDG metabolism in patients affected by CdCs with different clinical presentations and identify possible "brain metabolic phenotypes" of this syndrome. Methods: 6 patients (age: 5 M and 1 F, age range: 10-27) with CdCs were assessed for presence of cognitive and behavioral symptoms with a battery of neuropsychological tests and then classified as patient with a severe or mild phenotype. Then, patients underwent a brain 18F-FDG PET/CT scan. PET/CT findings were compared to a control group, matched for age and sex, by using statistical parametric mapping (SPM). Association of different clinical phenotypes and 18F-FDG PET/CT findings was investigated. Results: Four patients presented a severe phenotype, whereas 2 patients demonstrated mild phenotype. SPM single subject and group analysis compared to the control cohort revealed a significant hypometabolism in the left temporal lobe (BAs 20, 36 and 38), in the right frontal subcallosal gyrus (BA 34) and caudate body, and in the cerebellar tonsils (p<0.001). Hypermetabolism (P = 0.001) was revealed in the right superior and precentral frontal gyrus (BA 6) in patient group compared to the control cohort. In SPM single subject analysis the hypermetabolic areas were detected only in patients with a severe phenotype. Conclusion: This study revealed different patterns of brain glucose metabolism in patients with severe and mild phenotype compared to control subjects. In particular, the hypermetabolic abnormalities in the brain, evaluated by18F-FDG PET/CT, seem to correlate with the severe phenotype in patients with CdCs.




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Head to head prospective comparison of quantitative lung scintigraphy and segment counting in predicting pulmonary function of lung cancer patients undergoing video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy

Prediction of post-operative pulmonary function in lung cancer patients before tumor resection is essential for patient selection for surgery and is conventionally done with a non-imaging segment counting method (SC) or a two-dimensional planar lung perfusion scintigraphy (PS). The purpose of this study was to compare quantitative analysis of PS to single photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT) and to estimate the accuracy of SC, PS and SPECT/CT in predicting post-operative pulmonary function in patients undergoing lobectomy. Methods: Seventy-five non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients planned for lobectomy were prospectively enrolled (68% males, average age 68.1±8 years ). All patients completed pre-operative forced expiratory volume capacity (FEV1), diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO), Tc99m-MAA lung perfusion scintigraphy with PS and SPECT/CT quantification. A subgroup of 60 patients underwent video-assisted thoracoscopic (VATS) lobectomy and measurement of post-operative FEV1 and DLCO. Relative uptake of the lung lobes estimated by PS and SPECT/CT were compared. Predicted post-operative FEV1 and DLCO were derived from SC, PS and SPECT/CT. Prediction results were compared between the different methods and the true post-operative measurements in patients who underwent lobectomy. Results: Relative uptake measurements differed significantly between PS and SPECT/CT in right lung lobes, with a mean difference of -8.2±3.8, 18.0±5.0 and -11.5±6.1 for right upper, middle and lower lobes respectively (p<0.001). The differences between the methods in the left lung lobes were minor with a mean difference of -0.4±4.4 (p>0.05) and -2.0±4.0 (p<0.001) for left upper and lower lobes respectively. No significant difference and strong correlation (R=0.6-0.76, p<0.001) were found between predicted post-operative lung function values according to SC, PS, SPECT/CT and the actual post-operative FEV1 and DLCO. Conclusion: Although lobar quantification parameters differed significantly between PS and SPECT/CT, no significant differences were found between the predicted post-operative lung function results derived from these methods and the actual post-operative results. The additional time and effort of SPECT/CT quantification may not have an added value in patient selection for surgery. SPECT/CT may be advantageous in patients planned for right lobectomies but further research is warranted.




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Tobacco smoking in people is not associated with altered 18 kDa-translocator protein levels: A Positron Emission Tomography study

Rationale: The effects of tobacco smoking on the brain’s immune system are not well elucidated. While nicotine is immunosuppressive, other constituents in tobacco smoke have inflammatory effects. Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging of the 18-kDa translocator protein (TSPO) provide a biomarker for microglia, the brain’s primary immunocompetent cells. This work compared brain TSPO levels in 20 tobacco smokers (abstinent for at least 2 hours) and 20 nonsmokers using a fully quantitative modeling approach for the first time. Methods: [11C]PBR28 PET scans were acquired with arterial blood sampling to estimate the metabolite-corrected input function. [11C]PBR28 volumes of distribution (VT) were estimated throughout the brain with multilinear analysis. Results: Statistical analyses revealed no evidence for significant differences in regional [11C]PBR28 VT between smokers and non-smokers (whole-brain Cohen’s d=0.09) despite adequate power to detect medium effect sizes. Conclusion: These findings inform previous PET studies reporting lower TSPO radiotracer concentrations in brain (measured as standardized uptake value, SUV) of tobacco smokers compared to nonsmokers by demonstrating the importance of accounting for radiotracer concentrations in plasma. These findings suggest that compared to nonsmokers, smokers have comparable TSPO levels in brain. Additional work with other biomarkers is needed to fully characterize effects of tobacco smoking on the brain’s immune system.




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FDG-PET/CT identifies predictors of survival in patients with locally advanced cervical carcinoma and para-aortic lymph node involvement to increase treatment

Introduction: To use positron emission tomography coupled with computed tomography (18FDG-PET/CT) to identify a high-risk subgroup requiring therapeutic intensification among patients with locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC) and para-aortic lymph node (PALN) involvement. Methods: In this retrospective multicentric study, patients with LACC and PALN involvement concurrently treated with chemoradiotherapy and extended-field radiotherapy (EFR) between 2006 and 2016 were included. A senior nuclear medicine specialist in PET for gynaecologic oncology reviewed all 18FDG-PET/CT scans. Metabolic parameters including maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were determined for the primary tumour, pelvic lymph nodes and PALN. Associations between these parameters and overall survival (OS) were assessed with Cox's proportional hazards model. Results: Sixty-eight patients were enrolled in the study. Three-year OS was 55.5% (95% CI (40.8-68.0)). When adjusted for age, stage and histology, pelvic lymph node TLG, PALN TLG and PALN SUVmax were significantly associated with OS (p<0.005). Conclusion: FDG-PET/CT was able to identify predictors of survival in the homogeneous subgroup of patients with LACC and PALN involvement, thus allowing therapeutic intensification to be proposed.




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Performance of digital PET compared to high-resolution conventional PET in patients with cancer

Recently introduced PET systems using silicon photomultipliers with digital readout (dPET) have an improved timing and spatial resolution, aiming at a better image quality, over conventional PET (cPET) systems. We prospectively evaluated the performance of a dPET system in patients with cancer, as compared to high-resolution (HR) cPET imaging. Methods: After a single FDG-injection, 66 patients underwent dPET (Vereos, Philips Healthcare) and cPET (Ingenuity TF, Philips Healthcare) imaging in a randomized order. We used HR-reconstructions (2x2x2 mm3 voxels) for both scanners and determined SUVmax, SUVmean, lesion-to-background ratio (LBR), metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and lesion diameter in up to 5 FDG-positive lesions per patient. Furthermore, we counted the number of visible and measurable lesions on each PET scan. Two nuclear medicine specialists blindly determined the Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) score from both image sets in 30 patients referred for initial staging. For all 66 patients, these specialists separately and blindly evaluated image quality (4-point scale) and determined the scan preference. Results: We included 238 lesions that were visible and measurable on both PET scans. We found 37 additional lesions on dPET in 27 patients (41%), which were unmeasurable (n = 14) or invisible (n = 23) on cPET. SUVmean, SUVmax, LBR and MTV on cPET were 5.2±3.9 (mean±SD), 6.9±5.6, 5.0±3.6 and 2991±13251 mm3, respectively. On dPET SUVmean, SUVmax and LBR increased 24%, 23% and 27%, respectively (p<0.001) while MTV decreased 13% (p<0.001) compared to cPET. Visual analysis showed TNM upstaging with dPET in 13% of the patients (4/30). dPET images also scored higher in image quality (P = 0.003) and were visually preferred in the majority of cases (65%). Conclusion: Digital PET improved the detection of small lesions, upstaged the disease and images were visually preferred as compared to high-resolution conventional PET. More studies are necessary to confirm the superior diagnostic performance of digital PET.




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64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT and prediction of overall and progression-free survival in patients with neuroendocrine neoplasms

Overexpression of somatostatin receptors in patients with neuroendocrine neoplasms (NEN) is utilized for both diagnosis and treatment. Receptor density may reflect tumor differentiation and thus be associated with prognosis. Non-invasive visualization and quantification of somatostatin receptor density is possible by somatostatin receptor imaging (SRI) using positron emission tomography (PET). Recently, we introduced 64Cu-DOTATATE for SRI and we hypothesized that uptake of this tracer could be associated with overall (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Methods: We evaluated patients with NEN that had a 64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT SRI performed in two prospective studies. Tracer uptake was determined as the maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax) for each patient. Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank was used to determine the predictive value of 64Cu-DOTATATE SUVmax for OS and PFS. Specificity, sensitivity and accuracy was calculated for prediction of outcome at 24 months after 64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT. Results: A total of 128 patients with NEN were included and followed for a median of 73 (1-112) months. During follow-up, 112 experienced disease progression and 69 patients died. The optimal cutoff for 64Cu-DOTATATE SUVmax was 43.3 for prediction of PFS with a hazard ratio of 0.56 (95% CI: 0.38-0.84) for patients with SUVmax > 43.3. However, no significant cutoff was found for prediction of OS. In multiple Cox regression adjusted for age, sex, primary tumor site and tumor grade, the SUVmax cutoff hazard ratio was 0.50 (0.32-0.77) for PFS. The accuracy was moderate for predicting PFS (57%) at 24 months after 64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT. Conclusion: In this first study to report the association of 64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT and outcome in patients with NEN, tumor somatostatin receptor density visualized with 64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT was prognostic for PFS but not OS. However, the accuracy of prediction of PFS at 24 months after 64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT SRI was moderate limiting the value on an individual patient basis.




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Lesion detection and administered activity




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Factors predicting metastatic disease in 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET positive osseous lesions in prostate cancer

Bone is the most common site of distant metastatic spread in prostate adenocarcinoma. Prostate-specific membrane antigen uptake has been described in both benign and malignant bone lesions, which can lead to false-positive findings on 68Ga-prostate-specific membrane antigen-11 positron emission tomography (68Ga-PSMA-11 PET). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET for osseous prostate cancer metastases and improve bone uptake interpretation using semi-quantitative metrics. METHODS: 56 prostate cancer patients (18 pre-prostatectomy, 38 biochemical recurrence) who underwent 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI or PET/CT examinations with osseous PSMA-ligand uptake were included in the study. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively by board-certified nuclear radiologists to determine true or false positivity based on a composite endpoint. For each avid osseous lesion, biological volume, size, PSMA-RADS rating, maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), and ratio of lesion SUVmax to liver, blood pool, and background bone SUVmax were measured. Differences between benign and malignant lesions were evaluated for statistical significance, and cut-off values for these parameters were determined to maximize diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Among 56 participants, 13 patients (22.8%) had false-positive osseous 68Ga-PSMA-11 findings and 43 patients (76.8%) had true-positive osseous 68Ga-PSMA-11 findings. Twenty-two patients (39%) had 1 osseous lesion, 18 (32%) had 2-4 lesions, and 16 (29%) had 5 or more lesions. Cut-off values resulting in statistically significant (p<0.005) differences between benign and malignant lesions were: PSMA-RADS ≥4, SUVmax ≥4.1, SUVmax ratio of lesion to blood pool ≥2.11, to liver ≥0.55, and to bone ≥4.4. These measurements corresponded to lesion-based 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET lesion detection rate for malignancy of 80%, 93%, 89%, 21%, 89%, and a specificity of 73%, 73%, 73%, 93%, 60%, respectively. CONCLUSION: PSMA-RADS rating, SUVmax, and SUVmax ratio of lesion to blood pool can help differentiate benign from malignant lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET. SUVmax ratio to blood pool above 2.2 is a reasonable parameter to support image interpretation and presented superior lesion detection rate and specificity when compared to visual interpretation by PSMA RADS. These parameters hold clinical value by improving diagnostic accuracy for metastatic prostate cancer on 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI and PET/CT.




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Integrity of neurocognitive networks in dementing disorders as measured with simultaneous PET/fMRI

Background: Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have reported altered integrity of large-scale neurocognitive networks (NCNs) in dementing disorders. However, findings on specificity of these alterations in patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) are still very limited. Recently, NCNs have been successfully captured using positron emission tomography (PET) with F18-fluordesoxyglucose (FDG). Methods: Network integrity was measured in 72 individuals (38 male) with mild AD, bvFTD, and healthy controls using a simultaneous resting state fMRI and FDG-PET. Indices of network integrity were calculated for each subject, network, and imaging modality. Results: In either modality, independent component analysis revealed four major NCNs: anterior default mode network (DMN), posterior DMN, salience network, and right central executive network (CEN). In fMRI data, integrity of posterior DMN was found to be significantly reduced in both patient groups relative to controls. In the AD group anterior DMN and CEN appeared to be additionally affected. In PET data, only integrity of posterior DMN in patients with AD was reduced, while three remaining networks appeared to be affected only in patients with bvFTD. In a logistic regression analysis, integrity of anterior DMN as measured with PET alone accurately differentiated between the patient groups. A correlation between indices of two imaging modalities was overall low. Conclusion: FMRI and FDG-PET capture partly different aspects of network integrity. A higher disease specificity of NCNs as derived from PET data supports metabolic connectivity imaging as a promising diagnostic tool.




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The Horn of Africa and the Gulf States: Strategic Engagements and Red Sea Geopolitics

Invitation Only Research Event

16 December 2019 - 9:00am to 12:15pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Ambassador Mohamed Ali Guyo, IGAD Special Envoy for the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Somalia
Julian Reilly, UK Special Envoy for the Red Sea and Horn of Africa
Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, United Nations Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa
Alexander Rondos, EU Special Representative for the Horn of Africa
Chair: Susan Stigant, Director of Africa Programs, United States Institute of Peace

Over the last five years, the prevailing order in the Horn of Africa has been influenced by increasing engagement from the Gulf states across the Red Sea. Their growing presence has presented governments in the region with significant policy challenges, as they seek to leverage interest and competition to further their own objectives with Gulf players and their allies, while simultaneously navigating the multiple overlapping tensions and disputes that have long marked the Horn region.

Balancing regional and global dynamics will continue to be a considerable challenge for states in the Horn that already have to deal with complex internal development and political and conflict challenges. Interventions by the Gulf states have heightened tensions around internal and cross-border relationships but they have also contributed to reconciliation and have the potential to fuel long-term regional economic integration. Developing a collective action plan and coordinated strategies for engagement on common issues with the Gulf states and along the shared Red Sea arena will enable countries in the Horn of Africa to better meet the challenges and benefits from external interest.

This high-level invitation-only roundtable will bring together the special envoys and representatives for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, along with expert participants, to analyse regional dynamics and explore options to boost collaboration and burden-sharing towards greater integration, development and more durable peace and security on both sides of the Red Sea.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Mass Spectrometry Based Immunopeptidomics Leads to Robust Predictions of Phosphorylated HLA Class I Ligands [Technological Innovation and Resources]

The presentation of peptides on class I human leukocyte antigen (HLA-I) molecules plays a central role in immune recognition of infected or malignant cells. In cancer, non-self HLA-I ligands can arise from many different alterations, including non-synonymous mutations, gene fusion, cancer-specific alternative mRNA splicing or aberrant post-translational modifications. Identifying HLA-I ligands remains a challenging task that requires either heavy experimental work for in vivo identification or optimized bioinformatics tools for accurate predictions. To date, no HLA-I ligand predictor includes post-translational modifications. To fill this gap, we curated phosphorylated HLA-I ligands from several immunopeptidomics studies (including six newly measured samples) covering 72 HLA-I alleles and retrieved a total of 2,066 unique phosphorylated peptides. We then expanded our motif deconvolution tool to identify precise binding motifs of phosphorylated HLA-I ligands. Our results reveal a clear enrichment of phosphorylated peptides among HLA-C ligands and demonstrate a prevalent role of both HLA-I motifs and kinase motifs on the presentation of phosphorylated peptides. These data further enabled us to develop and validate the first predictor of interactions between HLA-I molecules and phosphorylated peptides.




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Upregulation of CD73 Confers Acquired Radioresistance and is Required for Maintaining Irradiation-selected Pancreatic Cancer Cells in a Mesenchymal State [Research]

The molecular mechanisms underlying exceptional radioresistance in pancreatic cancer remain elusive. In the present study, we established a stable radioresistant pancreatic cancer cell line MIA PaCa-2-R by exposing the parental MIA PaCa-2 cells to fractionated ionizing radiation (IR). Systematic proteomics and bioinformatics analysis of protein expression in MIA PaCa-2 and MIA PaCa-2-R cells revealed that several growth factor-/cytokine-mediated pathways, including the OSM/STAT3, PI3K/AKT, and MAPK/ERK pathways, were activated in the radioresistant cells, leading to inhibition of apoptosis and increased epithelial-mesenchymal plasticity. In addition, the radioresistant cells exhibited enhanced capabilities of DNA repair and antioxidant defense compared with the parental cells. We focused functional analysis on one of the most up-regulated proteins in the radioresistant cells, ecto-5'-nucleotidase (CD73), which is a cell surface protein that is overexpressed in different types of cancer. Ectopic overexpression of CD73 in the parental cells resulted in radioresistance and conferred resistance to IR-induced apoptosis. Knockdown of CD73 re-sensitized the radioresistant cells to IR and IR-induced apoptosis. The effect of CD73 on radioresistance and apoptosis is independent of the enzymatic activity of CD73. Further studies demonstrate that CD73 up-regulation promotes Ser-136 phosphorylation of the proapoptotic protein BAD and is required for maintaining the radioresistant cells in a mesenchymal state. Our findings suggest that expression alterations in the IR-selected pancreatic cancer cells result in hyperactivation of the growth factor/cytokine signaling that promotes epithelial-mesenchymal plasticity and enhancement of DNA repair. Our results also suggest that CD73, potentially a novel downstream factor of the enhanced growth factor/cytokine signaling, confers acquired radioresistance by inactivating proapoptotic protein BAD via phosphorylation of BAD at Ser-136 and by maintaining the radioresistant pancreatic cancer cells in a mesenchymal state.




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Combined EGFR and ROCK Inhibition in Triple-negative Breast Cancer Leads to Cell Death Via Impaired Autophagic Flux [Research]

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive subtype of breast cancer with very limited therapeutic options. We have recently shown that the combined inhibition of EGFR and ROCK in TNBC cells results in cell death, however, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. To investigate this, here we applied a mass spectrometry-based proteomic approach to identify proteins altered on single and combination treatments. Our proteomic data revealed autophagy as the major molecular mechanism implicated in the cells' response to combinatorial treatment. We here show that EGFR inhibition by gefitinib treatment alone induces autophagy, a cellular recycling process that acts as a cytoprotective response for TNBC cells. However, combined inhibition of EGFR and ROCK leads to autophagy blockade and accumulation of autophagic vacuoles. Our data show impaired autophagosome clearance as a likely cause of antitumor activity. We propose that the inhibition of the autophagic flux on combinatorial treatment is attributed to the major cytoskeletal changes induced on ROCK inhibition, given the essential role the cytoskeleton plays throughout the various steps of the autophagy process.




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Chemical Genetics of AGC-kinases Reveals Shared Targets of Ypk1, Protein Kinase A and Sch9 [Research]

Protein phosphorylation cascades play a central role in the regulation of cell growth and protein kinases PKA, Sch9 and Ypk1 take center stage in regulating this process in S. cerevisiae. To understand how these kinases co-ordinately regulate cellular functions we compared the phospho-proteome of exponentially growing cells without and with acute chemical inhibition of PKA, Sch9 and Ypk1. Sites hypo-phosphorylated upon PKA and Sch9 inhibition were preferentially located in RRxS/T-motifs suggesting that many are directly phosphorylated by these enzymes. Interestingly, when inhibiting Ypk1 we not only detected several hypo-phosphorylated sites in the previously reported RxRxxS/T-, but also in an RRxS/T-motif. Validation experiments revealed that neutral trehalase Nth1, a known PKA target, is additionally phosphorylated and activated downstream of Ypk1. Signaling through Ypk1 is therefore more closely related to PKA- and Sch9-signaling than previously appreciated and may perform functions previously only attributed to the latter kinases.




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Compliance Checklists No Longer Required at Initial Manuscript Submission [Editorials]




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Phosphotyrosine-based Phosphoproteomics for Target Identification and Drug Response Prediction in AML Cell Lines [Research]

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a clonal disorder arising from hematopoietic myeloid progenitors. Aberrantly activated tyrosine kinases (TK) are involved in leukemogenesis and are associated with poor treatment outcome. Kinase inhibitor (KI) treatment has shown promise in improving patient outcome in AML. However, inhibitor selection for patients is suboptimal.

In a preclinical effort to address KI selection, we analyzed a panel of 16 AML cell lines using phosphotyrosine (pY) enrichment-based, label-free phosphoproteomics. The Integrative Inferred Kinase Activity (INKA) algorithm was used to identify hyperphosphorylated, active kinases as candidates for KI treatment, and efficacy of selected KIs was tested.

Heterogeneous signaling was observed with between 241 and 2764 phosphopeptides detected per cell line. Of 4853 identified phosphopeptides with 4229 phosphosites, 4459 phosphopeptides (4430 pY) were linked to 3605 class I sites (3525 pY). INKA analysis in single cell lines successfully pinpointed driver kinases (PDGFRA, JAK2, KIT and FLT3) corresponding with activating mutations present in these cell lines. Furthermore, potential receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) drivers, undetected by standard molecular analyses, were identified in four cell lines (FGFR1 in KG-1 and KG-1a, PDGFRA in Kasumi-3, and FLT3 in MM6). These cell lines proved highly sensitive to specific KIs. Six AML cell lines without a clear RTK driver showed evidence of MAPK1/3 activation, indicative of the presence of activating upstream RAS mutations. Importantly, FLT3 phosphorylation was demonstrated in two clinical AML samples with a FLT3 internal tandem duplication (ITD) mutation.

Our data show the potential of pY-phosphoproteomics and INKA analysis to provide insight in AML TK signaling and identify hyperactive kinases as potential targets for treatment in AML cell lines. These results warrant future investigation of clinical samples to further our understanding of TK phosphorylation in relation to clinical response in the individual patient.




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Discovery of a Redox Thiol Switch: Implications for Cellular Energy Metabolism [Research]

The redox-based modifications of cysteine residues in proteins regulate their function in many biological processes. The gas molecule H2S has been shown to persulfidate redox sensitive cysteine residues resulting in an H2S-modified proteome known as the sulfhydrome. Tandem Mass Tags (TMT) multiplexing strategies for large-scale proteomic analyses have become increasingly prevalent in detecting cysteine modifications. Here we developed a TMT-based proteomics approach for selectively trapping and tagging cysteine persulfides in the cellular proteomes. We revealed the natural protein sulfhydrome of two human cell lines, and identified insulin as a novel substrate in pancreatic beta cells. Moreover, we showed that under oxidative stress conditions, increased H2S can target enzymes involved in energy metabolism by switching specific cysteine modifications to persulfides. Specifically, we discovered a Redox Thiol Switch, from protein S-glutathioinylation to S-persulfidation (RTSGS). We propose that the RTSGS from S-glutathioinylation to S-persulfidation is a potential mechanism to fine tune cellular energy metabolism in response to different levels of oxidative stress.




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A peroxisome deficiency-induced reductive cytosol state up-regulates the brain-derived neurotrophic factor pathway [Metabolism]

The peroxisome is a subcellular organelle that functions in essential metabolic pathways, including biosynthesis of plasmalogens, fatty acid β-oxidation of very-long-chain fatty acids, and degradation of hydrogen peroxide. Peroxisome biogenesis disorders (PBDs) manifest as severe dysfunction in multiple organs, including the central nervous system (CNS), but the pathogenic mechanisms in PBDs are largely unknown. Because CNS integrity is coordinately established and maintained by neural cell interactions, we here investigated whether cell-cell communication is impaired and responsible for the neurological defects associated with PBDs. Results from a noncontact co-culture system consisting of primary hippocampal neurons with glial cells revealed that a peroxisome-deficient astrocytic cell line secretes increased levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), resulting in axonal branching of the neurons. Of note, the BDNF expression in astrocytes was not affected by defects in plasmalogen biosynthesis and peroxisomal fatty acid β-oxidation in the astrocytes. Instead, we found that cytosolic reductive states caused by a mislocalized catalase in the peroxisome-deficient cells induce the elevation in BDNF secretion. Our results suggest that peroxisome deficiency dysregulates neuronal axogenesis by causing a cytosolic reductive state in astrocytes. We conclude that astrocytic peroxisomes regulate BDNF expression and thereby support neuronal integrity and function.




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Sydney start-up Suppertime acquired by food delivery giant

Australian premium restaurant delivery service Suppertime has been snapped by a major international company, as the local food delivery market continues to heat up.




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Five hundred tax file numbers hacked every day

Identity thieves can now get into employers' payroll systems, but ATO says it's systems are safe.




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Centrelink debt debacle shows government is unprepared for digital revolution

The public service needs to embrace partnerships if it's to harvest big data's massive yields.




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Face scanning falls flat as part of digital credentials push

State government's facial recognition ID check is now required for those seeking solar rebates, but it failed 40 per cent of the time during the first two weeks.




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A Credit-fuelled Economic Recovery Stores Up Trouble for Turkey

17 February 2020

Fadi Hakura

Consulting Fellow, Europe Programme
Turkey is repeating the mistakes that led to the 2018 lira crisis and another freefall for the currency may not be far off.

2020-02-17-TurCB.jpg

Headquarters of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Photo: Getty Images.

Since the 2018 economic crisis, when the value of the lira plummeted and borrowing costs soared, Turkey’s economy has achieved a miraculous ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery from a recession lasting three quarters to a return back to quarterly growth above 1 per cent in the first three months of 2019.

But this quick turnaround has been built on vast amounts of cheap credit used to re-stimulate a consumption and construction boom. This so-called ‘triple C’ economy generated a rapid growth spurt akin to a modestly able professional sprinter injected with steroids.

This has made the currency vulnerable. The lira has steadily depreciated by 11 per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of 2019 and crossed the rate of 6 lira versus the US dollar on 7 February. And there are further warning signs on the horizon.

Credit bonanza

Statistics reveal that Turkish domestic credit grew by around 13 per cent on average throughout 2019.  The credit bonanza is still ongoing. Mortgage-backed home sales jumped by a record high of 600 per cent last December alone and the 2019 budget deficit catapulted by 70 per cent due to higher government spending.

Turkey’s central bank fuelled this credit expansion by cutting interest rates aggressively to below inflation and, since the start of this year, purchasing lira-denominated bonds equivalent to around one-third of total acquisitions last year to push yields lower.

Equally, it has linked bank lending to reserve requirements – the money that banks have to keep at the central bank – to boost borrowings via state and private banks. Banks with a ‘real’ loan growth (including inflation) of between 5 and 15 per cent enjoy a 2 per cent reserve ratio on most lira deposits, which authorities adjusted from an earlier band of 10-20 per cent that did not consider double-digit inflation.

Cumulatively, bond purchases (effectively quantitative easing) and reserve management policies have also contributed to eased credit conditions.

Commercial banks have also reduced deposit rates on lira accounts to less than inflation to encourage consumption over saving. Together with low lending rates, the boost to the economy has flowed via mortgages, credit card loans, vehicle leasing transactions and general business borrowings.

Accordingly, stimulus is at the forefront of the government’s economic approach, as it was in 2017 and 2018. It does not seem to be implementing structural change to re-orient growth away from consumption towards productivity. 

In addition, governance is, again, a central issue. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s near total monopolization of policymaking means he guides all domestic and external policies. He forced out the previous central bank governor, Murat Cetinkaya, in July 2019 because he did not share the president’s desire for an accelerated pace of interest rate reductions.

New challenges

Despite the similarities, the expected future financial turbulence will be materially different from its 2018 predecessor in four crucial respects. 

Firstly, foreign investors will only be marginally involved. Turkey has shut out foreign investors since 2018 from lira-denominated assets by restricting lira swap arrangements. Unsurprisingly, the non-resident holdings of lira bonds has plummeted from 20 per cent in 2018 to less than 10 per cent today.

Secondly, the Turkish government has recently introduced indirect domestic capital controls by constraining most commercial transactions to the lira rather than to the US dollar or euro to reduce foreign currency demand in light of short-term external debt obligations of $191 billion.

Thirdly, the Turkish state banks are intervening quite regularly to soften Lira volatility, thereby transitioning from a ‘free float’ to a ‘managed float’. So far, they have spent over $37 billion over the last two years in a futile effort to buttress the lira. This level of involvement in currency markets cannot be maintained.

Fourthly, the Turkish state is being far more interventionist in the Turkish stock exchange and bond markets to keep asset prices elevated. Government-controlled local funds have participated in the Borsa Istanbul and state banks in sovereign debt to sustain rallies or reverse a bear market.  

All these measures have one running idea: exclude foreign investors and no crisis will recur. Yet, when the credit boom heads to a downturn sooner or later, Turks will probably escalate lira conversions to US dollars; 51 per cent of all Turkish bank deposits are already dollar-denominated and the figure is still rising.

If Turkey’s limited foreign reserves cannot satisfy the domestic dollar demand, the government may have to impose comprehensive capital controls and allow for a double digit depreciation in the value of the lira to from its current level, with significant repercussions on Turkey’s political stability and economic climate.

To avoid this scenario, it needs to restore fiscal and monetary prudence, deal the with the foreign debt overhang in the private sector and focus on productivity-improving economic and institutional reforms to gain the confidence of global financial markets and Turks alike.




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