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Webinar: Make or Break: China and the Geopolitical Impacts of COVID-19

Research Event

28 April 2020 - 12:00pm to 12:45pm

Event participants

Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow on China, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Kerry Brown, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House; Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of Lau China Institute, King’s College London

The COVID-19 crisis has accelerated geopolitical tensions that, in part, have arisen from US-China tensions. At a time when the world needs strong and collective leadership to fight the coronavirus, both countries have been locked in a battle of words characterized by escalating hostility, polarizing narratives, blame and misinformation. Caught in the crossfire, many people of Chinese descent across differing countries have reported an increase in xenophobic attacks.

Middle powers such as the UK and Australia have swerved between recognition of the global collaboration needed to solve this pandemic and calls for China to be held ‘accountable’ for its initial response. Others such, as France and Japan, have been trying to foster international cooperation. 

Against this context, speakers will discuss China’s response to the crisis, including the initial delay and Beijing’s later containment strategies. How do we best assess the delay amidst all the heated rhetoric? What was the response of people within China to the measures? Does COVID-19 mark a point of no return for US-China relations? How might this impact on relations between US allies and China? And what kind of China will emerge from this current crisis?

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761




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Webinar: Weekly COVID-19 Pandemic Briefing – The Geopolitics of the Coronavirus

Members Event Webinar

6 May 2020 - 10:00am to 10:45am

Online

Event participants

Professor Ilona Kickbusch, Associate Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House; Founding Director and Chair, Global Health Centre, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies 
Professor David Heymann CBE, Distinguished Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House; Executive Director, Communicable Diseases Cluster, World Health Organization (1998-03)
Chair: Emma Ross, Senior Consulting Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House

The coronavirus pandemic continues to claim lives around the world. As countries grapple with how best to tackle the virus and the reverberations the pandemic is sending through their societies and economies, scientific understanding of how the coronavirus is behaving, and what measures might best combat it, continues to advance.

Join us for the seventh in a weekly series of interactive webinars on the coronavirus with Professor David Heymann and special guest Professor Ilona Kickbusch helping us to understand the facts and make sense of the latest developments in the global crisis.

What will the geopolitics of the pandemic mean for multilateralism? As the US retreats, what dynamics are emerging around other actors and what are the implications for the World Health Organization? Is the EU stepping up to play a bigger role in global health? Will the pandemic galvanize the global cooperation long called for?

Professor Heymann is a world-leading authority on infectious disease outbreaks. He led the World Health Organization’s response to SARS and has been advising the organization on its response to the coronavirus. 

Professor Kickbusch is one of the world’s leading experts in global health diplomacy and governance. She advises international organizations, national governments, NGOs and the private sector on new directions and innovations in global health, governance for health and health promotion.




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Lebanese Women and the Politics of Disruption

Research Event

6 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Carmen Geha, Assistant Professor of Public Administration, Leadership and Organisational Development, American University of Beirut
Moderator: Lina Khatib, Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Lebanese women have been at the forefront of the protest movement that has shaken Lebanon since October 2019. The active participation by women and their visibility in Lebanon's protest movement has challenged the gender norms prevalent in Lebanese society and politics. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the nationwide lockdown that ensued has disrupted women's ability to organize, and is threatening the fragile progress towards female inclusion in the political process.
 
In a recent article, Carmen Geha discussed the politics of representation in the context of women's participation in public life in Lebanon and argued that the country's political system is maintained through tightly-knit informal power relations among sectarian politicians, making women's participation in politics virtually impossible. The article explained how the October 2019 revolution challenged that norm by creating inclusive spaces where women activists could confront politicians and thus, transform the way women participate in politics and public life.
 
In this webinar, part of the Chatham House project on the future of the state in the Middle East and North Africa, the article's author will discuss how women's activism in Lebanon has been affected by the coronavirus-induced lockdown. The speaker will consider how, under current circumstances, women activists can speak up collectively and bring back a movement to contest gender norms in order to build an alternative political model that can better represent women's priorities.
 
You can express your interest in attending by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya

Research Event

12 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm
Add to Calendar
Natasha Kimani, Academy Associate, Chatham House; Head of Partnerships and Programmes, Shujaaz Inc.
Chair: Tighisti Amare, Assistant Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House
While gender equality was enshrined in Kenyan law under the 2010 constitution, gender-based marginalization remains a significant issue across all levels of society. The advent of devolution in 2013 raised hopes of enhanced gender awareness in policymaking and budgeting, with the 47 newly instituted county governments expected to tackle the dynamics of inequality close to home, but implementation has so far failed to match this initial promise. As Kenya approaches the tenth anniversary of the constitution, and with the COVID-19 pandemic throwing the challenges of gender inequality into sharper relief, it is critical to ensure that constitutional pathways are followed with the requisite level of urgency, commitment and investment to address entrenched gender issues.
 
This event, which will launch the report, Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya, will assess the current status of efforts to devolve and adopt gender-responsive budgeting and decision-making in Kenya, and the priorities and potential future avenues to tackle the implementation gap.
 
This event will be held on the record.

To express your interest in attending, please follow this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful.

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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The Golan Heights: ripples of civil war in Israel's little piece of Syria

5 June 2014 , Volume 70, Number 3

The Golan Heights is home to thousands of Druze who cling on tenaciously while looking over their shoulder at the chaos in their homeland

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Israeli soldiers deployed on the border look towards Syria. Photo: Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty




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Britain is experiencing a little turbulence

31 July 2014 , Volume 70, Number 4

A long view of the problems of modern migration

Robert Winder is author of ‘Bloody Foreigners' and former literary editor of The Independent and deputy editor of Granta

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Some of the first Afro-Caribbean immigrants arrive in East London from Jamaica. Photo: Popperfoto/Getty




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Crimea's New Ethnic Politics

Members Event Under 35s Forum

19 May 2015 - 6:30pm to 7:45pm

Chatham House, London

Event participants

Dr Denis Krivosheev, Deputy Programme Director, Europe & Central Asia, Amnesty International
Nick Sturdee, Director, Unreported World
Marcel Theroux, Journalist and Presenter, Unreported World
Chair: Angus MacQueen, Filmmaker

In March 2014, Russian forces seized Crimea from Ukraine in a move that was condemned internationally but welcomed by many in Crimea’s Russian majority community. A team from Channel 4’s Unreported World will show their upcoming film, Miss Crimea, which follows a young Crimean Tatar competing in the Miss Crimea beauty contest and examines how the Crimean Tatar community has been affected by the Russian takeover. Against this backdrop, the panel will explore how the issue of ethnicity has become more politically charged since the annexation and the impact that this has had on ordinary citizens from different ethnic groups.

This is an Under 35s Forum event. The event will be followed by a reception.

The event is held in association with Channel 4.

Members Events Team




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The Road to Gender Equality: Achievements and Challenges in China

Invitation Only Research Event

23 May 2016 - 1:00pm to 3:00pm

Beijing, China

Following 21 years since the adoption of the Beijing declaration by 189 states, China has the opportunity to lead the way in prioritizing gender-inclusive growth policies on the G20 agenda, as it is hosting the G20 this year.

This roundtable will examine specific challenges in China, a country with a high heterogeneity in the labour force and among its population. The event will bring together representatives of government, business and civil society to continue the dialogue that Chatham House started one year ago in Beijing. Taking stock of the progress achieved so far, the participants will analyse what type of recommendations can have a positive impact in both rural and high- density populated areas.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

The Chatham House Rule 

To enable as open a debate as possible, this event will be held under the Chatham House Rule. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Michele Bazzano

Research Assistant, International Economics
+44 (0)20 7314 3684




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Virtual Roundtable: US-China Geopolitics and the Global Pandemic

Invitation Only Research Event

2 April 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Event participants

Dr Kurt Campbell, Chairman, CEO and Co-Founder, The Asia Group; Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, 2009-13
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

This event is part of the Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US, Americas and the State of the World and will take place virtually only. Participants should not come to Chatham House for these events.

Department/project

US and Americas Programme




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S-Palmitoylation of the sodium channel Nav1.6 regulates its activity and neuronal excitability [Cell Biology]

S-Palmitoylation is a reversible post-translational lipid modification that dynamically regulates protein functions. Voltage-gated sodium channels are subjected to S-palmitoylation and exhibit altered functions in different S-palmitoylation states. Our aim was to investigate whether and how S-palmitoylation regulates Nav1.6 channel function and to identify S-palmitoylation sites that can potentially be pharmacologically targeted. Acyl-biotin exchange assay showed that Nav1.6 is modified by S-palmitoylation in the mouse brain and in a Nav1.6 stable HEK 293 cell line. Using whole-cell voltage clamp, we discovered that enhancing S-palmitoylation with palmitic acid increases Nav1.6 current, whereas blocking S-palmitoylation with 2-bromopalmitate reduces Nav1.6 current and shifts the steady-state inactivation in the hyperpolarizing direction. Three S-palmitoylation sites (Cys1169, Cys1170, and Cys1978) were identified. These sites differentially modulate distinct Nav1.6 properties. Interestingly, Cys1978 is exclusive to Nav1.6 among all Nav isoforms and is evolutionally conserved in Nav1.6 among most species. Cys1978 S-palmitoylation regulates current amplitude uniquely in Nav1.6. Furthermore, we showed that eliminating S-palmitoylation at specific sites alters Nav1.6-mediated excitability in dorsal root ganglion neurons. Therefore, our study reveals S-palmitoylation as a potential isoform-specific mechanism to modulate Nav activity and neuronal excitability in physiological and diseased conditions.




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Webinar: Weekly COVID-19 Pandemic Briefing – The Geopolitics of the Coronavirus

Members Event Webinar

6 May 2020 - 10:00am to 10:45am

Online

Event participants

Professor Ilona Kickbusch, Associate Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House; Founding Director and Chair, Global Health Centre, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies 
Professor David Heymann CBE, Distinguished Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House; Executive Director, Communicable Diseases Cluster, World Health Organization (1998-03)
Chair: Emma Ross, Senior Consulting Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House

The coronavirus pandemic continues to claim lives around the world. As countries grapple with how best to tackle the virus and the reverberations the pandemic is sending through their societies and economies, scientific understanding of how the coronavirus is behaving, and what measures might best combat it, continues to advance.

Join us for the seventh in a weekly series of interactive webinars on the coronavirus with Professor David Heymann and special guest Professor Ilona Kickbusch helping us to understand the facts and make sense of the latest developments in the global crisis.

What will the geopolitics of the pandemic mean for multilateralism? As the US retreats, what dynamics are emerging around other actors and what are the implications for the World Health Organization? Is the EU stepping up to play a bigger role in global health? Will the pandemic galvanize the global cooperation long called for?

Professor Heymann is a world-leading authority on infectious disease outbreaks. He led the World Health Organization’s response to SARS and has been advising the organization on its response to the coronavirus. 

Professor Kickbusch is one of the world’s leading experts in global health diplomacy and governance. She advises international organizations, national governments, NGOs and the private sector on new directions and innovations in global health, governance for health and health promotion.




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Lebanese Women and the Politics of Disruption

Research Event

6 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Carmen Geha, Assistant Professor of Public Administration, Leadership and Organisational Development, American University of Beirut
Moderator: Lina Khatib, Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Lebanese women have been at the forefront of the protest movement that has shaken Lebanon since October 2019. The active participation by women and their visibility in Lebanon's protest movement has challenged the gender norms prevalent in Lebanese society and politics. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the nationwide lockdown that ensued has disrupted women's ability to organize, and is threatening the fragile progress towards female inclusion in the political process.
 
In a recent article, Carmen Geha discussed the politics of representation in the context of women's participation in public life in Lebanon and argued that the country's political system is maintained through tightly-knit informal power relations among sectarian politicians, making women's participation in politics virtually impossible. The article explained how the October 2019 revolution challenged that norm by creating inclusive spaces where women activists could confront politicians and thus, transform the way women participate in politics and public life.
 
In this webinar, part of the Chatham House project on the future of the state in the Middle East and North Africa, the article's author will discuss how women's activism in Lebanon has been affected by the coronavirus-induced lockdown. The speaker will consider how, under current circumstances, women activists can speak up collectively and bring back a movement to contest gender norms in order to build an alternative political model that can better represent women's priorities.
 
You can express your interest in attending by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya

Research Event

12 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm
Add to Calendar
Natasha Kimani, Academy Associate, Chatham House; Head of Partnerships and Programmes, Shujaaz Inc.
Chair: Tighisti Amare, Assistant Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House
While gender equality was enshrined in Kenyan law under the 2010 constitution, gender-based marginalization remains a significant issue across all levels of society. The advent of devolution in 2013 raised hopes of enhanced gender awareness in policymaking and budgeting, with the 47 newly instituted county governments expected to tackle the dynamics of inequality close to home, but implementation has so far failed to match this initial promise. As Kenya approaches the tenth anniversary of the constitution, and with the COVID-19 pandemic throwing the challenges of gender inequality into sharper relief, it is critical to ensure that constitutional pathways are followed with the requisite level of urgency, commitment and investment to address entrenched gender issues.
 
This event, which will launch the report, Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya, will assess the current status of efforts to devolve and adopt gender-responsive budgeting and decision-making in Kenya, and the priorities and potential future avenues to tackle the implementation gap.
 
This event will be held on the record.

To express your interest in attending, please follow this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful.

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Politics, policy-making and the presence of images of suffering children

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helen Berents

In 2017 Trump expressed pity for the ‘beautiful babies’ killed in a gas attack on Khan Shaykhun in Syria before launching airstrikes against President Assad's regime. Images of suffering children in world politics are often used as a synecdoche for a broader conflict or disaster. Injured, suffering, or dead; the ways in which images of children circulate in global public discourse must be critically examined to uncover the assumptions that operate in these environments. This article explores reactions to images of children by representatives and leaders of states to trace the interconnected affective and political dimensions of these images. In contrast to attending to the expected empathetic responses prompted by images of children, this article particularly focuses on when such images prompt bellicose foreign policy decision-making. In doing this, the article forwards a way of thinking about images as contentious affective objects in international relations. The ways in which images of children's bodies and suffering are strategically deployed by politicians deserves closer scrutiny to uncover the visual politics of childhood inherent in these moments of international politics and policy-making.




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Social media and the visibility of horrific violence

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Constance Duncombe

Images are central to social media communication. Billions of images are shared across different social media platforms every day: photos, cartoons, GIFs and short video clips are exchanged by users, facilitating or framing discourse on participatory sites such as Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Many of these images depict events of extreme violence, which circulate uninhibited by the conventional constraints associated with traditional news media censorship. A question arises here as to how such images mobilize public and policy-making responses to atrocities. This article examines the political dynamics of violent social media images. I argue that the particular qualities of social media can play an important role in how the digital visibility of horrific violence influences policy-making as a response to such atrocities. There is an important connection between the properties of social media platforms that allow user images to reach a global audience in real time and the emotional responses that this level of circulation generates. In turn, the pressure created by events made globally visible through the circulation of violent images and the audience responses to those images puts governments in a position where they are forced to act, which has significant implications for policy-making.




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Horror, apocalypse and world politics (free)

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Tim Aistrope and Stefanie Fishel

World politics generates a long list of anxiety-inspiring scenarios that threaten to unravel everyday life with sudden and violent destruction. From total war and the concentration camps, through nuclear firestorms, global pandemics and climate disaster, the diabolical violence of the recent past and conceivable future is the stuff of nightmares. Yet International Relations scholars and practitioners are often criticized for being disconnected from the human realities of international calamity. The challenge for both is to engage world politics in a way that foregrounds the human consequences of extreme violence and depravation. In this article, we explore these difficult experiences through popular culture representations of the apocalypse, a subject of intense interest for researchers in a discipline where global destruction is a distinct possibility. However, we take a different route by engaging the apocalypse through the horror genre, the one place where human suffering is explicitly accentuated. We argue that the horror genre is at once an access point for ethical engagement with the human consequences of extreme violence and a complex terrain where dark imaginings can be politically loaded, culturally specific and ethically ambiguous.




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Soundscapes of war: the audio-visual performance of war by Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helle Malmvig

This article sets out to bring sound and music to the field of visual studies in International Relations. It argues that IR largely has approached the visual field as if it was without sound; neglecting how audial landscapes frame and direct our interpretation of moving imagery. Sound and music contribute to making imagery intelligible to us, we ‘hear the pictures’ often without noticing. The audial can for instance articulate a visual absence, or blast visual signs, bring out certain emotional stages or subjects’ inner life. Audial frames steer us in distinct directions, they can mute the cries of the wounded in war, or amplify the sounds of joy of soldiers shooting in the air. To bring the audial and the visual analytically and empirically together, the article therefore proposes four key analytical themes: 1) the audial–visual frame, 2) point of view/point of audition, 3) modes of audio-visual synchronization and 4) aesthetics moods. These are applied to a study of ‘war music videos’ in Iraq and Syria made and circulated by Shi'a militias currently fighting there. Such war music videos, it is suggested, are not just artefacts of popular culture, but have become integral parts of how warfare is practiced today, and one that is shared by soldiers in the US and Europe. War music videos are performing war, just as they shape how war is known by spectators and participants alike.




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Accountability, denial and the future-proofing of British torture

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Ruth Blakeley and Sam Raphael

When powerful liberal democratic states are found to be complicit in extreme violations of human rights, how do they respond and why do they respond as they do? Drawing on the example of the United Kingdom's complicity in torture since 9/11, this article demonstrates how reluctant the UK has been to permit a full reckoning with its torturous past. We demonstrate that successive UK governments engaged in various forms of denial, obfuscation and attempts to obstruct investigation and avoid accountability. The net effect of their responses has been to deny the victims redress, through adequate judicial processes, and to deny the public adequate state accountability. These responses are not simply aimed at shielding from prosecution the perpetrators and those who have oversight of them, nor preventing political embarrassment. The various forms of denial and obstruction are also designed to ensure that collusion can continue uninterrupted. A core concern of intelligence officials and ministers has been to prevent any process that would lead to a comprehensive prohibition on involvement in operations where torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment are a real possibility. The door remains wide open, and deliberately so, for British involvement in torture.




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The multilevel identity politics of the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Galia Press-Barnathan and Naama Lutz

This article uses the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) that took place in Tel Aviv to explore how cultural mega-events serve both as political arenas and as tools for identity construction, negotiation and contestation. These processes of identity politics are all conducted across national–subnational–international–transnational levels. The hosting of mega-events fleshes out these multiple processes in a very strong manner. We first discuss the politics of hosting mega-events in general. We then examine the identity politics associated more specifically with the Eurovision Song Contest, before examining in depth the complex forms of identity politics emerging around the competition following the 2018 Israeli victory. We suggest that it is important to study together the multiple processes—domestic, international and transnational—of identity politics that take place around the competition, as they interact with each other. Consequently, we follow the various stakeholders involved at these different levels and their interactions. We examine the internal identity negotiation process in Israel surrounding the event, the critical actors debating how to use the stage to challenge the liberal, western, ‘normal’ identity Israel hoped to project in the contest and how other stakeholders (participating states, national broadcasting agencies, participating artists) reacted to them, and finally we examine the behaviour of the institution in charge, the European Broadcasting Union, and national governments. We contribute to the study of mega-events as fields of contestation, to the understanding of the complex, multilevel nature of national identity construction, negotiation and contestation in the current era, and more broadly to the role that popular culture plays in this context.




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Violence, visuality and world politics

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

In the May 2020 issue of International Affairs, we explore the many uses of images in the conduct of global politics.

Helen Berents and Constance Duncombe

This special section brings together diverse spaces and modes of visuality through specific, sustained attention to the various types of violence depicted. In doing so, these articles draw out a concern for the visual constitution of violence in global politics, and its emotional and political consequences. Individually and collectively, the contributions highlight the ways in which policy-makers and researchers are daily confronted by violent images that influence how complex political problems are seen and consequently understood. Paying attention to the power of the visuality of violence is necessary to understand how certain kinds of policy responses to direct and indirect violence unfold.




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COVID-19 in South Africa: Leadership, Resilience and Inequality

7 May 2020

Christopher Vandome

Research Fellow, Africa Programme
In a world looking for leadership, South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa has been remarkable. One year after he carried the time-worn ANC through a national election, South Africans are crying out for more.

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Cyril Ramaphosa at NASREC Expo Centre in Johannesburg where facilities are in place to treat coronavirus patients. Photo by JEROME DELAY/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

In the COVID-19 crisis so far, Cyril Ramaphosa has been widely praised for displaying the decisive leadership so many hoped for when they cast their ballot for him in May 2019. Buttressed by others such as health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize, and on a simple objective to prevent transmission, South Africa has been a lesson to the world. Act fast. Act hard.

Former president Thabo Mbeki’s disastrous response to the HIV crisis cast a long shadow over his legacy, and Ramaphosa has taken note. South Africa has had one of the tightest lockdowns in the world. No exercise. No cigarettes. No alcohol.

The lockdown was imposed when the country had only around 1,000 recorded cases and just two deaths. As a result, transmission from returning travellers has not yet led to an exponential infection rate within the community. The government’s swift reaction has bought much needed time with the peak now seemingly delayed to September or October.

Continental and national leadership

Ramaphosa has also emerged as a key focal point for Africa-wide responses. As current chair of the African Union (AU) he leads the continental engagement with the World Health Organization (WHO), and the various international finance institutions, while South African officials are working with the AU and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) on a push for African debt restructuring.

He has also been active in trouble shooting to unlock external assistance to the continent, including from China and Russia. Appointing special envoys is typical of his boardroom-honed leadership style.

International and regional partnerships are vital for resilience and the arrival of 217 Cuban doctors to South Africa is strongly reminiscent of the liberationist solidarity of the Cold War era. And regional economies remain dependent on South Africa to protect their own vulnerable citizens. Following the 2008 financial crisis, it was South Africa’s regional trading relationships that remained robust, while trade with its main global partners in China and the US dropped.

Despite the plaudits, Ramaphosa remains vulnerable to challenge at home, notably around his failure to stimulate South Africa’s moribund economy. On the eve of lockdown, Moody’s joined its peers Standard and Poor’s and Fitch in giving South Africa a below investment grade credit rating. The move was a long time coming. Long mooted economic reforms were slow to materialise, and South Africa had fallen into recession.

Ramaphosa depends on a small core of close advisors and allies, initially united in apparent opposition to the kleptocratic rule of President Jacob Zuma and the deep patronage networks he created within both the party and the state. But this allegiance is being tested by economic reality. Support within the party was already drifting prior to the crisis.

Disagreements are not just technocratic – there are big ideological questions in play around the role of the state in the economy, the level of intervention, and its affordability, with key government figures sceptical of rapid market reforms. Energy minister and former union stalwart Gwede Mantashe is wary of job losses, and minister of public enterprises Pravin Gordhan protective of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Before coronavirus hit, Ramaphosa seemed content to allow these policy disputes to play themselves out with little decisive intervention.

Slow progress on reform, against worsening economic performance, left Ramaphosa and his allies exposed. In January the president missed the UK’s African Investment Summit in order to assert control over a party meeting at which it was expected his detractors would seek to remove Gordhan.

COVID-19 has sharpened thinking

As the independently assertive - and eminently quotable - pro-market reformist finance minister Tito Mboweni stated, ‘you can’t eat ideology’. Accelerated reform and restructuring is required if the government turns to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance.

For the first time, Gordhan has been forced to deny a bailout to beleaguered state airline South African Airways (SAA), and the government’s lockdown bailout of R300 billion has been applauded by business. Much like the fiscal stimulus and recovery plan of 2018, it relies on smart spending, targeting sectors with high multiplier effects. It also includes significant reserve bank loans.

But it has been criticised for not doing enough to help the most vulnerable. There is considerable fear of what could happen when the virus takes hold in South Africa’s townships and informal settlements where social distancing is almost impossible, basic toilet facilities are shared, and HIV and TB rates high.

There are mounting concerns of the humanitarian cost of a prolonged lockdown, and the government has been faster than others in implementing a tiered lockdown system, trying to get people back to work and keep the economy afloat.

South Africa has been criticized by the UN for the use of lethal force by security forces in enforcing lockdown and, in a society plagued by corruption, there are fears legislation to stop the spread of false information could be used to restrict legitimate reporting on the virus response or other issues.

COVID-19 shines a spotlight on societies’ fault-lines worldwide. South Africa is often touted as having one of the highest levels of inequality in the world but, in a globalized economy, these divisions are international as much as they are local.

Resilience comes from within, but also depends on regional and global trading and financial systems. South Africans and international partners have long recognised Ramaphosa’s leadership qualities as an impressive voice for the global south.

But he must also be an advocate for South Africa’s poor. This crisis could accelerate implementation of his landmark pro-poor National Health Insurance and Universal Health Care programmes. Or the hit of COVID-19 on top of South Africa’s existing economic woes could see them derailed entirely. Ramaphosa must push through economic reforms at the same time as managing COVID-19 and rebuilding trust in his government.




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Crimean Reality Check: Four Years of Annexation




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Growth in a Multilateral World: The Role of Inclusive Trade and Quality Investment




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Corporations and Environmental Sustainability: Profit vs Planet?




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The New Political Landscape in Germany and Austria




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Equality by 2030: The Press for Progress




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The Politics of Personality in the Middle East




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Reconstruction in Syria: Between Political Pragmatism and Human Rights Idealism




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Argentina: Political Change and the G20 Presidency




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Jordan: Regime Survival and Politics Beyond the State




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Undercurrents: Bonus Episode - How Can Political Elites Reconnect With Voters?




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China, Russia and Iran: Power Politics of a New World Order?




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The Belt and Road Initiative: Modernity, Geopolitics and the Global Order




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Leadership in an Era of Geopolitical Turbulence




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The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams vs International Realities




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Radical Change? New Political Paradigms in Brazil and Mexico




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The Geopolitical Positioning of Europe




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Stacey Abrams: Democracy and the Politics of Identity




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The Militarization of the Black Sea After the Annexation of Crimea




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Gender Inequality: Making Technology the Solution, Not the Problem




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Tectonic Politics: Navigating New Geopolitical Risks




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A Path Forward for US Politics




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Iran, Islam and Democracy: The Politics of Managing Change 20 Years On




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Undercurrents: Summer Special - Andrés Rozental on Mexican Politics




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Iraq’s Political Landscape (English version)




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Reflections on the State of Political Discourse




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Undercurrents: Episode 40 - Illicit Financial Flows, and Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific




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Understanding South Africa's Political Landscape




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Human Rights Priorities: An Agenda for Equality and Social Justice




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Young and Male: Identity and Politics in Saudi Arabia