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Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024


729 
FONT14 KNHC 140848
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   6(14)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  10(16)   9(25)   6(31)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   3(23)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   6( 6)  25(31)  14(45)  21(66)   3(69)   1(70)
GUANAJA        50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)  10(22)   2(24)   1(25)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
S SALVADOR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN                                                    




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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024


000
WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been 
improving.  The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt.  Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates 
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite 
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression.  This is 
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which 
shows a well-defined circulation.  The intensity is set to 30 kt 
based on the Dvorak estimates.
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of 
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later 
today.  A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression 
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until 
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, 
and possibly inland.  After that, the ridge is expected to break 
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak 
steering currents late Friday through the weekend.  This expected 
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the 
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions 
of Central America.  By early next week, ridging should become 
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which 
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the 
Yucatan Peninsula.  Very little change was made to the first 3 days 
of the track forecast.  Beyond day 3, there has been a notable 
westward shift in the track guidance.  The NHC forecast is a bit 
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as 
the bulk of the latest model guidance.
 
Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during 
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low 
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. 
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much 
land interaction with Honduras occurs.  The majority of the models 
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or 
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, 
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model 
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but 
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this 
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h.  The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance 
envelope beyond 36 h.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for
portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 15.9N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 




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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024


000
WTNT24 KNHC 140846
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  81.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 




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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)

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Technology is necessary to recruit and train the next generation of home service employees

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In an exclusive with ISHN magazine, outgoing ASSE President Rick Pollock explains the profession’s expanding focus on risk and myths about human performance, as well as other issues. “ASSE now has, and will into the future, have a much greater focus on risk. Clearly, any true business leader understands the concept of risk as it applies to investment and decision making. Business is about understanding enterprise risk and how investment is always at risk of loss or under performance."




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A key issues roundtable discussion Monday afternoon will address how to manage OSH risk and business polarities when there are competing priorities. Too often high visibility incidents cause organizations to switch into “fire-fighting” mode rather than executing their strategy.




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NIOSH Director Dr. John Howard gave a presentation on Tuesday on a recent study of the supply and demand for OSH professionals in the next 5 years. Demand (25,000 pros are expected to be hired by U.S. industry) far outstrips supply (13,000 college graduates in OSH will be available).




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AIHA to select OEHS Professionals at Mark of Excellence Awards event

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Marquis Who's Who Honors Vanessa Phung for Expertise in the Human Resources Sector

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ParkHub Destresses Super Bowl By Offering Fans Online Reservation System

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Auto Mechanics and Atlanta Braves Partner, Express Oil, Discuss Braves' Options for Left Fielder

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Brian McCann with Braves Unlikely to Get Contract Extension, Notes Atlanta Auto Repair Experts, Express Oil

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Roswell Auto Mechanic, Express Oil, Wonders if Michael Bourn Will Return to Atlanta Braves

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Learn to Drive Like the Professionals With Top Marques

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Atlantic Tire & Service Hires Two Additional Service Advisors Wessell and Chase to Help Shape Customer Service Experience at Local Shops

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Atlanta Auto Repair Center, Express Oil, Reminds Customers of Fleet Services they Offer

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Record Attendance Expected at the NationaLease Spring Business Meeting

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Mechanic, Express Oil, Notes That Oil May Last Longer Than 3K Miles, But Oil Filter May Not

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Royal Thai Massage and Wellness Center Now Open at the Salon and Spa Galleria Benbrook in Benbrook, Texas

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And while we’re in the process of missing European...



And while we’re in the process of missing European architecture… ????

4 more days left to catch my Lightroom presets for 50% off! ⌛️ (at Copenhagen, Denmark)




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Controlling AirPort Network Access with Time Limits

If you own an AirPort base station, you can use the Timed Access feature to control the days and times when users access the Internet. This could come in handy in a variety of situations. For example, if you own a cafe and provide free wi-fi access, you can configure the AirPort to block all access to the Internet when your business is closed. And if you have children, you can set time limits for specific devices in your home.

There are two ways to use the timed access feature. You can create a default allow policy to allow all devices to access the Internet at any time, and then specify custom schedules for specific devices. Or you can create a default deny policy to prevent all devices from accessing the Internet according the schedule you specify, and then exempt specific devices by creating custom schedules.

Here's how to control AirPort network access with time limits:

  1. Open the AirPort Utility application. (It's in Applications → Utilities.) The window shown below appears.

  2. Click the AirPort Extreme's icon. The status pop-up window appears.

  3. Click Edit. The settings window appears.

  4. Select the Network tab. The window shown below appears.

  5. Select the Enable Access Control checkbox.

  6. Click Timed Access Control. The window shown below appears.

  7. Select the Unlimited (default) option. By default, this allows all of the devices connected to your AirPort to access the Internet all day, every day, but you can change this to block Internet access for all devices (except the ones you specify later) during the times you set.

  8. If you'd like to limit the days and times that a specific device can access the Internet, click the + button under the Wireless Clients field. The window shown below appears.

  9. Enter a name for the device in the Description field.

  10. Enter the device's MAC address in the MAC Address field. You can use the following tutorials to find the device's MAC address.

  11. Use the + button under the Wireless Access Times field to create a schedule for this device's Internet access.

  12. Once you've added all of your devices and customized the schedules, click Save.

  13. Click Update. The AirPort will restart to apply the changes.

Congratulations! You have successfully set time limits for the devices connecting to your AirPort network. The schedule you created is effective immediately.

Meet Your Macinstructor

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When you connect an iPhone to a wi-fi network, the iPhone remembers that network and will automatically attempt to connect to it in the future. This is a great feature for wi-fi networks you trust and use frequently. But mistakes happen. If you connect to the wrong network at a coffee shop, your iPhone will automatically attempt to join that network every time you visit the coffee shop in the future. And if the password for a known network changes, your iPhone might have trouble connecting to it.

What's the solution? Telling your iPhone to forget the wi-fi network. Forgetting a network will remove the network's password and prevent your iPhone from joining it automatically in the future.

Here's how to tell your iPhone to forget a wireless network:

  1. From the home screen, tap Settings.

  2. Tap Wi-Fi. The window shown below appears.

  3. Locate the wireless network you want the iPhone to forget, and then tap the blue arrow next to the network name. The window shown below appears.

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You have successfully told your iPhone to forget the wi-fi network. The iPhone will not attempt to connect to the network in the future. And if the network required a password, that password has been forgotten.

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Born in Tarzana, California, Jesse Chehak studied photography and Art History at Sarah Lawrence College and is currently pursuing a MFA at the University of Arizona. Chehak has exhibited his large format prints in galleries and project spaces including Bruce Silverstein (New York), Danese (New York) and the Durham Art Guild (Durham, North Carolina.) He is currently seeking funding to publish his first monograph, Fool's Gold, and a gallery to exhibit and distribute the completed print edition. In 2005, Chehak joined M.A.P. and began executing commercial campaigns and editorial features for clients, including The New York Times, Wallpaper*, Newsweek, GQ, Ogilvy & Mather, Saatchi & Saatchi, Digitas, and others. Chehak has received notable attention for his work, including PDN30 in 2005, The Magenta Foundation's Flash Forward in 2007, a Baum Nomination in 2008, and AP25. He lives in Tucson and Los Angeles.




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What is deceptive, especially in the West, is our assumption that repetitive and mindless jobs are dehumanizing. On the other hand, the jobs that require us to use the abilities that are uniquely human, we assume to be humanizing. This is not necessarily true. The determining factor is not so much the nature of our jobs, but for whom they serve.

‘Burnout’ is a result of consuming yourself for something other than yourself. You could be burnt out for an abstract concept, ideal, or even nothing (predicament). You end up burning yourself as fuel for something or someone else. This is what feels dehumanizing. In repetitive physical jobs, you could burn out your body for something other than yourself. In creative jobs, you could burn out your soul. Either way, it would be dehumanizing. Completely mindless jobs and incessantly mindful jobs could both be harmful to us.



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Parallel Sessions now available on the IWMW 2008 Web site

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Bill Clinton addresses AIDS 2014 delegates in Melbourne

Former US President Bill Clinton has told delegates at the 20th International AIDS Conference, AIDS 2014 in Melbourne, that finding more economically efficient ways to respond to HIV is vital to saving lives and preventing the spread of the virus. Mr Clinton’s speech was made to over 2,000 people at one of the most eagerly anticipated sessions at the AIDS 2014 conference in Melbourne.




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Expression of Interest to be released for Federation Square East

The Victorian Government is calling for Expressions of Interest to develop Federation Square East – an iconic site in the heart of Melbourne. Global developers are invited to respond to the EOI which will be officially released to the market on Monday 15 September 2014, presenting an exciting opportunity to create a vibrant, mixed use development that may incorporate commercial components — including shops, bars and even accommodation.




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Australia – China Business Council to move to Melbourne

Australia’s premier business organisation dedicated to promoting investment and trade with China will be the first bilateral business chamber to be part of the Victorian Coalition Government’s new International Chamber House (ICH). The Australia China Business Council (ACBC) will move its head office from Sydney to Melbourne to be part of ICH, which is set to open later this year in Melbourne’s city centre.




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Ballarat West Employment Zone opens for business interest

The expression of interest for the Ballarat West Employment Zone (BWEZ) has officially opened. BWEZ is the Ballarat region’s engine room for jobs and economic growth over the next 20 years. Located just over an hour north-west from the Melbourne city centre, Ballarat has fantastic connections to road, rail, ports and airports and the region is home to a large, skilled and stable workforce. With an increasing population of 100,000, Ballarat is one of the largest inland cities in Australia and serves as a key access point to the other regional centres in Northern and Western Victoria.