A tutorial for a simple responsive autorun slideshow sutiable for all the latest browsers and OS.

A demonstration showing how to animate CSS shapes using @keyframes to produce an autorun slideshow. For all modern browsers except IE and Firefox.

A second demonstration showing how to animate CSS shapes using @keyframes to produce an autorun slideshow. For all modern browsers except IE and Firefox.

Using html5 to use four diferent images depending on browser window size. Suitable for all modern browsers.

A method for repairing an aged or damaged asphalt pavement is provided. The method involves preparing a surface of the aged or damaged asphalt pavement by filling in deviations from a uniform surface plane with dry aggregate and compacting the dry aggregate; applying a reactive asphalt emulsion to the prepared surface; and passing an emitter over the prepared pavement, wherein the emitter generates electromagnetic radiation having a wavelength of from 2-5 mm that penetrates into the pavement to a depth of at least 2 inches. The asphalt pavement is repaired by disturbing voids and interstices in the damaged pavement without dehydrogenation of the asphalt, such that oligomers present in the aged asphalt are linked together into longer polymer chains to improve ductility of the aged asphalt.

The harvest is underway at one of Australia's most remote pearl farms and its new owners are excited by what they see.

(United States First Circuit) - In a suit brought under a Puerto Rico 'Law 458', which prohibits government instrumentalities and public corporations from awarding bids or contracts to persons (including juridical persons) who have been convicted of 'crimes that constitute fraud, embezzlement or misappropriation of public funds listed in section 928b of this title,' P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 3, section 928, the district court's judgment remanding the case to the Commonwealth Puerto Rico Court of First Instance is affirmed where the forum selection clauses at issue were enforceable, and that the unanimity requirement of 28 U.S.C. section 1446(b)(2)(A) therefore could not be satisfied.

(United States First Circuit) - In a public utilities class action, contending that defendant power company (PREPA)'s subsidized municipalities' private use of power in violation of Puerto Rico law, the district court's grant of summary judgment to defendant is affirmed where plaintiffs' lack of a valid protected interest in the electricity consumed by the municipalities or the funds paid to PREPA deprive them of standing to bring takings or due process claims.

(United States First Circuit) - In a suit brought under a Puerto Rico 'Law 458', which prohibits government instrumentalities and public corporations from awarding bids or contracts to persons (including juridical persons) who have been convicted of 'crimes that constitute fraud, embezzlement or misappropriation of public funds listed in section 928b of this title,' P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 3, section 928, the district court's judgment remanding the case to the Commonwealth Puerto Rico Court of First Instance is affirmed where the forum selection clauses at issue were enforceable, and that the unanimity requirement of 28 U.S.C. section 1446(b)(2)(A) therefore could not be satisfied.

Ao longo da pandemia e com rápida propagação do vírus, que já atingiu mais de 3 milhões de pessoas, tem surgido diversos outros sinais associados à enfermidade, como tremores e calafrios persistentes.

No mesmo dia, entretanto, uma publicação no periódico Lancet colocou dúvida sobre eficácia do remdesivir.

Ciro Gomes (PDT), Kim Kataguiri (DEM), Joice Hasselmann (PSL), Alessandro Molon (PSB) e outros autores de pedidos de impeachment de Bolsonaro avaliam as chances do impedimento prosseguir no Congresso.

Wien : M. Perles, 1878.

Carlsruhae : D.R. Marx, 1819.

Xuening Zhu.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1413--1448.

Abstract:
High dimensional time series receive considerable attention recently, whose temporal and cross-sectional dependency could be captured by the vector autoregression (VAR) model. To tackle with the high dimensionality, penalization methods are widely employed. However, theoretically, the existing studies of the penalization methods mainly focus on $i.i.d$ data, therefore cannot quantify the effect of the dependence level on the convergence rate. In this work, we use the spectral properties of the time series to quantify the dependence and derive a nonasymptotic upper bound for the estimation errors. By focusing on the nonconcave penalization methods, we manage to establish the oracle properties of the penalized VAR model estimation by considering the effects of temporal and cross-sectional dependence. Extensive numerical studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance using different penalization functions. Lastly, an air pollution data of mainland China is analyzed for illustration purpose.

Mohsen Maleki, Arezo Hajrajabi, Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 2, 273--290.

Abstract:
In this paper, we study the finite mixtures of autoregressive processes assuming that the distribution of innovations (errors) belongs to the class of scale mixture of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions. The SMSN distributions allow a simultaneous modeling of the existence of outliers, heavy tails and asymmetries in the distribution of innovations. Therefore, a statistical methodology based on the SMSN family allows us to use a robust modeling on some non-linear time series with great flexibility, to accommodate skewness, heavy tails and heterogeneity simultaneously. The existence of convenient hierarchical representations of the SMSN distributions facilitates also the implementation of an ECME-type of algorithm to perform the likelihood inference in the considered model. Simulation studies and the application to a real data set are finally presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

Zhengwei Liu, Qi Li, Fukang Zhu.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 2, 251--272.

Abstract:
To predict time series of counts with small values and remarkable fluctuations, an available model is the $r$ states random environment process based on the negative binomial thinning operator and the geometric marginal. However, we argue that the aforementioned model may suffer from the following two drawbacks. First, under the condition of no prior information, the overdispersed property of the geometric distribution may cause the predictions fluctuate greatly. Second, because of the constraints on the model parameters, some estimated parameters are close to zero in real-data examples, which may not objectively reveal the correlation relationship. For the first drawback, an $r$ states random environment process based on the binomial thinning operator and the Poisson marginal is introduced. For the second drawback, we propose a generalized $r$ states random environment integer-valued autoregressive model based on the binomial thinning operator to model fluctuations of data. Yule–Walker and conditional maximum likelihood estimates are considered and their performances are assessed via simulation studies. Two real-data sets are conducted to illustrate the better performances of the proposed models compared with some existing models.

Marco A. R. Ferreira.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 4, 734--744.

Abstract:
We study the limiting behavior of the one-at-a-time Gibbs sampler for the intrinsic conditional autoregressive model with centering on the fly. The intrinsic conditional autoregressive model is widely used as a prior for random effects in hierarchical models for spatial modeling. This model is defined by full conditional distributions that imply an improper joint “density” with a multivariate Gaussian kernel and a singular precision matrix. To guarantee propriety of the posterior distribution, usually at the end of each iteration of the Gibbs sampler the random effects are centered to sum to zero in what is widely known as centering on the fly. While this works well in practice, this informal computational way to recenter the random effects obscures their implied prior distribution and prevents the development of formal Bayesian procedures. Here we show that the implied prior distribution, that is, the limiting distribution of the one-at-a-time Gibbs sampler for the intrinsic conditional autoregressive model with centering on the fly is a singular Gaussian distribution with a covariance matrix that is the Moore–Penrose inverse of the precision matrix. This result has important implications for the development of formal Bayesian procedures such as reference priors and Bayes-factor-based model selection for spatial models.

Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) in September 2019 ranked second-to-lowest in history and is trending downward. The understanding of how internal variability amplifies the effects of external $ ext{CO}_2$ forcing is still limited. We propose the VARCTIC, which is a Vector Autoregression (VAR) designed to capture and extrapolate Arctic feedback loops. VARs are dynamic simultaneous systems of equations, routinely estimated to predict and understand the interactions of multiple macroeconomic time series. Hence, the VARCTIC is a parsimonious compromise between fullblown climate models and purely statistical approaches that usually offer little explanation of the underlying mechanism. Our "business as usual" completely unconditional forecast has SIE hitting 0 in September by the 2060s. Impulse response functions reveal that anthropogenic $ ext{CO}_2$ emission shocks have a permanent effect on SIE - a property shared by no other shock. Further, we find Albedo- and Thickness-based feedbacks to be the main amplification channels through which $ ext{CO}_2$ anomalies impact SIE in the short/medium run. Conditional forecast analyses reveal that the future path of SIE crucially depends on the evolution of $ ext{CO}_2$ emissions, with outcomes ranging from recovering SIE to it reaching 0 in the 2050s. Finally, Albedo and Thickness feedbacks are shown to play an important role in accelerating the speed at which predicted SIE is heading towards 0.

Ke Zhu.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 6, 3185--3215.

Abstract:
This paper provides an entire inference procedure for the autoregressive model under (conditional) heteroscedasticity of unknown form with a finite variance. We first establish the asymptotic normality of the weighted least absolute deviations estimator (LADE) for the model. Second, we develop the random weighting (RW) method to estimate its asymptotic covariance matrix, leading to the implementation of the Wald test. Third, we construct a portmanteau test for model checking, and use the RW method to obtain its critical values. As a special weighted LADE, the feasible adaptive LADE (ALADE) is proposed and proved to have the same efficiency as its infeasible counterpart. The importance of our entire methodology based on the feasible ALADE is illustrated by simulation results and the real data analysis on three U.S. economic data sets.

Ying Chen, J. S. Marron, Jiejie Zhang.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1590--1616.

Abstract:
Electricity prices are high dimensional, serially dependent and have seasonal variations. We propose a Warping Functional AutoRegressive (WFAR) model that simultaneously accounts for the cross time-dependence and seasonal variations of the large dimensional data. In particular, electricity price curves are obtained by smoothing over the $24$ discrete hourly prices on each day. In the functional domain, seasonal phase variations are separated from level amplitude changes in a warping process with the Fisher–Rao distance metric, and the aligned (season-adjusted) electricity price curves are modeled in the functional autoregression framework. In a real application, the WFAR model provides superior out-of-sample forecast accuracy in both a normal functioning market, Nord Pool, and an extreme situation, the California market. The forecast performance as well as the relative accuracy improvement are stable for different markets and different time periods.

Konstantinos Fokianos, Bård Støve, Dag Tjøstheim, Paul Doukhan.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 471--499.

Abstract:
We are studying linear and log-linear models for multivariate count time series data with Poisson marginals. For studying the properties of such processes we develop a novel conceptual framework which is based on copulas. Earlier contributions impose the copula on the joint distribution of the vector of counts by employing a continuous extension methodology. Instead we introduce a copula function on a vector of associated continuous random variables. This construction avoids conceptual difficulties related to the joint distribution of counts yet it keeps the properties of the Poisson process marginally. Furthermore, this construction can be employed for modeling multivariate count time series with other marginal count distributions. We employ Markov chain theory and the notion of weak dependence to study ergodicity and stationarity of the models we consider. Suitable estimating equations are suggested for estimating unknown model parameters. The large sample properties of the resulting estimators are studied in detail. The work concludes with some simulations and a real data example.

Guillaume Kon Kam King, Antonio Canale, Matteo Ruggiero.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 4, 1121--1141.

Abstract:
Motivated by the problem of forecasting demand and offer curves, we introduce a class of nonparametric dynamic models with locally-autoregressive behaviour, and provide a full inferential strategy for forecasting time series of piecewise-constant non-decreasing functions over arbitrary time horizons. The model is induced by a non Markovian system of interacting particles whose evolution is governed by a resampling step and a drift mechanism. The former is based on a global interaction and accounts for the volatility of the functional time series, while the latter is determined by a neighbourhood-based interaction with the past curves and accounts for local trend behaviours, separating these from pure noise. We discuss the implementation of the model for functional forecasting by combining a population Monte Carlo and a semi-automatic learning approach to approximate Bayesian computation which require limited tuning. We validate the inference method with a simulation study, and carry out predictive inference on a real dataset on the Italian natural gas market.

Italian translation of Press Release about BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens giving a speech on "Money in the digital age: what role for central banks?" (6 February 2018)

French translation of Press Release about BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens giving a speech on "Money in the digital age: what role for central banks?" (6 February 2018)

French translation of the Basel Committee is publishing "Sound Practices: implications of fintech developments for banks and bank supervisors", February 2018.

Here are two screen capture of Before and After Autorouting my board. Padstacks have all been revised and corrected. The Capture Schematic is correct. All Footprints have been verified after Padstack revision. a new NETLIST generation have been done after some corrections made in Capture. I have imported the new Logic. I revised my Layout Cross Section as such: TOP, GND, VCC, BOTTOM. Both VCC and GND shapes have been assigned to their respective logical GND and VCC Nets (verified). Yet, I still have the Autorouter to systematically use extra vias to make GND and VCC connections to the VCC and GND planes. Where a simple utilisation of the part padstack inner layer would have been indicated. What Im I missing ?

Key Points

Thane: Eight vehicles parked in Lokmanya Nagar area of Maharashtra's Thane city were torched by unidentified persons in the wee hours of Monday, a civic official said.

Locals saw smoke near a bus stop in Lokmanya Nagar and informed the authorities around 3 am about four two-wheelers and as many auto-rickshaws being on fire, Thane's regional disaster management cell (RDMC) chief Santosh Kadam said.

RDMC officials and fire brigade personnel rushed to the spot and doused the flames, he said. A probe was underway, a police official said, adding that no arrest was made so far. Last month, around nine two-wheelers had been set ablaze in Naupada area of the city. Later, two persons were arrested in connection with the incident.

In a similar incident, Delhi police arrested a 23-year-old man for allegedly setting ablaze 18 vehicles in south Delhi's Madangir Village, police said Thursday. The accused was identified as Vijay Shukla and a country-made pistol and some matchboxes were found from his possession, a senior police officer said.

In a video of the incident which had gone viral, a man was seen setting fire to the vehicles after opening the fuel pipe of the motorcycles. Petrol overflowed from the tanks of six motorcycles after which they were set on fire by a match stick.

The cars parked nearby also caught fire, the officer said. The police rushed to the spot after receiving information about the incident at around 3.05 am Tuesday and doused the flames. A case was registered under relevant sections of the IPC against the man and subsequently, he was arrested, police said.

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A 40-year-old man allegedly killed his wife and later committed suicide by hanging himself in Thane on Thursday. Sunil Sangle, an auto driver, on Wednesday night strangled his wife Archana Sangle (35), to death at their home in Sri Nagar locality and later hanged himself on Thursday afternoon, said police inspector Sulabha Patil.

The couple often had fights over domestic issues and apparently the man also suspected his wife’s character, and this may have triggered the murder, police said. According to Hindustan Times, Sunil Sangle was an auto-rickshaw driver and his wife worked as a security guard at an IT park in the city. A probe is underway, the police added.

In a similar case, a 38-year-old man was arrested for allegedly killing a man suspecting him of having an extra-marital affair with his wife in outer Delhi, police said Saturday. The accused identified as Anil Chaudhary, a resident of Nangloi, used to work in a shoe factory.

Other two men, Bakil (38) and Kamrul Huda (27) who allegedly robbed the victim after he was killed by the accused Chaudhary, were also arrested, police said. On Thursday, Nihal Vihar Police station was informed by Satya Bhama Hospital that a person has been brought dead in the hospital, Rajendra Singh Sagar, Additional Deputy Commissioner of Police (Outer) said.

The victim was identified as Vikas Yadav by his relatives. He used to work as a labourer in a chemical factory. On interrogation, the accused Chaudhary revealed he suspected Yadav of having an illicit relationship with his wife since a year. So, he decided to eliminate Yadav and on Wednesday night, he fired at Yadav, the officer said. Yadav was carrying two mobile phones and Rs 15,000 which were missing from his possession, the officer added.

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København : V. Pios Boghandel - Povl Branner, Nørregade, 1917.

Rotch Library - N7153.N47 A4 2018

Rotch Library - N7433.8.M38 2019

In order to counter the demand for a fare hike by bus associations and curb the violation of rules by auto-rickshaw drivers, transport minister Madan Mitra said 1,000 taxis would hit the roads on January 1 and 900 buses would be provided by the state government by March 31.