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Hey Folks,

I'm running short on time today... but I just wanted to show you this...

This is the latest GFS model run... for next Wednesday. A completely different idea than the GFS model run I showed you yesterday. The model is really backing off on the strength of the Ridge of High Pressure in the Atlantic. As a result, our system would be allowed to come much further East. Yesterday the track was through Western Labrador... which would bring a southerly flow of nice warm air into the Province. However, this further East track would allow colder air to sink into Labrador and wrap into the backside of the system producing a decent shot of... S-N-O-W for some.

The latest GFS and European have also shifted their thinking on this one... whether it's a temporary shift or permanent shift... still remains to be seen.

I'll update you on this tomorrow.

Ryan

Hey Folks,

Well our system moving in next week still has plenty of question marks around it. The main issue is the actual track the system will take... which the models really can't seem to get a handle on.

-Gone seems to be the idea that system will track up through Quebec and Western Labrador. That would have drawn a ton of warm air in from the South bumping up temperatures.... maybe to double digits... with some rain as well. However the models have completely backed off on that theory.

-Now the thinking seems to be either a) A track right through Newfoundland b) A Track just East of Newfoundland or c) A track completely to the Southeast of the Island... missing us completely.

A or B.

This scenario would be messy. Some light Snow mixed with Rain coming in on Tuesday along the Warm front of this system before it backs right in on top of us on Wednesday and into Thursday.
As I mentioned yesterday the more Easterly track would allow Cold air to wrap in behind this system and help produce Snow.
If the GFS run you're looking at above came true... we would be looking a huge shot of Snow for Central and parts of Western Newfoundland.

C.

This would be the most popular pick for many of you I'm sure. The idea here is that the area of High pressure to the Northwest and into Labrador is strong enough to push the system far enough to the Southeast, that is almost completely misses us. We would still see some mixing along the Warm front on Tuesday... but the meat and potatoes would be off shore.

SO WHICH ONE?

So how uncertain are the forecast models right now?

-The GFS American model had the full on Newfoundland Storm idea in it's overnight run. Just 6 hours later it came out with the complete miss scenario. 2 completely different ideas.
-The Canadian model has been bringing the Storm into Newfoundland with on it's last 3 runs.
-The European has been consistently taking the system far enough to the Southeast for a miss.

The good news is... if this system does come in... it's not until Wednesday. So I'll be watching the models closely over the weekend. If I start to see some condenses... I'll drop you a quick line on my facebook and twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/ryan.snoddon
twitter.com/ryansnoddon

Either way, we'll be talking about this on Monday on Here & Now.
Have a great weekend.

Ryan

On this week’s show: Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc talks federal funding to get kids back to school safely. Former leadership hopeful Leslyn Lewis discusses the future of the Conservative Party and her role in it, and two Canadians weigh in on where the party goes from here. Then, retiring Senator Lillian Dyck discusses her legacy and The House looks back at a week of continuing unrest over police brutality in the United States.

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Black American’s vulnerability in the face of systemic racism is not limited to death, sickness and injury as a result of COVID-19 or antiblack bias in police departments. Our vulnerability is precipitated by things like lack of access to nonpredatory financial services. This is just one of the contexts that compromise black Americans’ economic survival. Unacknowledged systemic racism destroys the wealth and wellbeing of black individuals, families and communities, sometimes causing working and middle-class black Americans to plummet into poverty. As 2020 comes to a close, an election that threatened democracy in the U.S. and the existential threats of an uncontrolled pandemic, eclipse a system of intentional antiblack racism on the part of the financial institutions that engaged in predatory mortgage lending in the years leading up to and beyond the 2008 recession. It is now well documented that lenders, brokers, and mortgage servicers engaged in conduct that was fraudulent and misleading. The mortgage market charged excessively high rates and fees, engaged in high-pressure sales tactics, imposed unnecessarily harsh prepayment penalties, and distorted loan structures to avoid the application of consumer protection statutes.  But, more than a decade later, many black Americans are still fighting to prevent financial institutions from taking away their homes. 

In a book I coauthored with Dr. Janis Sarra, a law professor at the University of British Columbia, Predatory Lending and the Destruction of the African American Dream (Cambridge University Press, 2020), we describe new iterations of predation that continue to target black consumers years after financial institutions settled litigation that alleged pervasive fraud on their part for steering black Americans into predatory subprime loans. But these renovated predatory practices are obscured by the nation’s focus on COVID-19 and a vitriolic election season. Meanwhile, more black Americans will lose their homes even after investing all or most of their wealth in attempts to keep them. This reality requires the calls for moratoriums on mortgage foreclosures to be answered in the affirmative.

Wikimedia Commons Philadelphia County Prison

In an important move that returns federal government policy to the Obama era, today President Biden signed an executive order calling on the Department of Justice to ends its use of private prisons.  While this executive order does not end federal government reliance on for-profit immigration detention centers, it does require that no future contracts with private prison operators be entered into between the federal government and private prison corporations CoreCivic, GEO Group and others.  Use of the executive order to end private for-profit prison reliance has proven difficult politically as Obama ended their use before the 2016 election, but once Trump entered the White House, he rescinded the policy and made robust use of private prisons for federal prisoners as well as immigration detention.