The histone demethylase JMJD1A plays a key functional role in spermatogenesis, sex determination, stem cell renewal, and cancer via removing mono- and di-methyl groups from H3K9 to epigenetically control gene expression. However, its role in prostate cancer progression remains unclear. Here, we found JMJD1A was significantly elevated in prostate cancer tissue compared with matched normal tissue. Ectopic JMJD1A expression in prostate cancer cells promoted proliferation, migration, and invasion in vitro, and tumorigenesis in vivo; JMJD1A knockdown exhibited the opposite effects. Mechanically, we revealed that JMJD1A directly interacted with the Snail gene promoter and regulated its transcriptional activity, promoting prostate cancer progression both in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, we found that JMJD1A transcriptionally activated Snail expression via H3K9me1 and H3K9me2 demethylation at its special promoter region. In summary, our studies reveal JMJD1A plays an important role in regulating proliferation and progression of prostate cancer cells though Snail, and thus highlight JMJD1A as potential therapeutic target for advanced prostate cancer.

We recently reported that restoring the CYP27A1–27hydroxycholesterol axis had antitumor properties. Thus, we sought to determine the mechanism by which 27HC exerts its anti–prostate cancer effects. As cholesterol is a major component of membrane microdomains known as lipid rafts, which localize receptors and facilitate cellular signaling, we hypothesized 27HC would impair lipid rafts, using the IL6–JAK–STAT3 axis as a model given its prominent role in prostate cancer. As revealed by single molecule imaging of DU145 prostate cancer cells, 27HC treatment significantly reduced detected cholesterol density on the plasma membranes. Further, 27HC treatment of constitutively active STAT3 DU145 prostate cancer cells reduced STAT3 activation and slowed tumor growth in vitro and in vivo. 27HC also blocked IL6-mediated STAT3 phosphorylation in nonconstitutively active STAT3 cells. Mechanistically, 27HC reduced STAT3 homodimerization, nuclear translocation, and decreased STAT3 DNA occupancy at target gene promoters. Combined treatment with 27HC and STAT3 targeting molecules had additive and synergistic effects on proliferation and migration, respectively. Hallmark IL6–JAK–STAT gene signatures positively correlated with CYP27A1 gene expression in a large set of human metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancers and in an aggressive prostate cancer subtype. This suggests STAT3 activation may be a resistance mechanism for aggressive prostate cancers that retain CYP27A1 expression. In summary, our study establishes a key mechanism by which 27HC inhibits prostate cancer by disrupting lipid rafts and blocking STAT3 activation.

The microtubule-binding taxanes, docetaxel and cabazitaxel, are administered intravenously for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) as the oral administration of these drugs is largely hampered by their low and highly variable bioavailabilities. Using a simple, rapid, and environmentally friendly microwave-assisted protocol, we have synthesized a number of 3,5-bis(styryl)pyrazoles 2a-l, thus allowing for their screening for antiproliferative activity in the androgen-independent PC3 prostate cancer cell line. Surprisingly, two of these structurally simple 3,5-bis(styryl)pyrazoles (2a and 2l) had concentrations which gave 50% of the maximal inhibition of cell proliferation (GI₅₀) in the low micromolar range in the PC3 cell line and were thus selected for extensive further biologic evaluation (apoptosis and cell cycle analysis, and effects on tubulin and microtubules). Our findings from these studies show that 3,5-bis[(1E)-2(2,6-dichlorophenyl)ethenyl]-1H-pyrazole 2l 1) caused significant effects on the cell cycle in PC3 cells, with the vast majority of treated cells in the G₂/M phase (89%); 2) induces cell death in PC3 cells even after the removal of the compound; 3) binds to tubulin [dissociation constant (K_d) 0.4 ± 0.1 μM] and inhibits tubulin polymerization in vitro; 4) had no effect upon the polymerization of the bacterial cell division protein FtsZ (a homolog of tubulin); 5) is competitive with paclitaxel for binding to tubulin but not with vinblastine, crocin, or colchicine; and 6) leads to microtubule depolymerization in PC3 cells. Taken together, these results suggest that 3,5-bis(styryl)pyrazoles warrant further investigation as lead compounds for the treatment of CRPC.

¹⁸F-prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-1007 is excreted mainly through the liver. We benchmarked the performance of ¹⁸F-PSMA-1007 against 3 renally excreted PSMA tracers. Methods: Among 668 patients, we selected 27 in whom PET/CT results obtained with ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11, ¹⁸F-DCFPyL (2-(3-(1-carboxy-5-[(6-[¹⁸F]fluoro-pyridine-3-carbonyl)-amino]-pentyl)-ureido)-pentanedioic acid), or ¹⁸F-JK-PSMA-7 (JK, Juelich-Koeln) were interpreted as equivocal or negative or as oligometastatic disease (PET-1). Within 3 wk, a second PET scan with ¹⁸F-PSMA-1007 was performed (PET-2). The confidence in the interpretation of PSMA-positive locoregional findings was scored on a 5-point scale, first in routine diagnostics (reader 1) and then by an independent second evaluation (reader 2). Discordant PSMA-positive skeletal findings were examined by contrast-enhanced MRI. Results: For both readers, ¹⁸F-PSMA-1007 facilitated the interpretability of 27 locoregional lesions. In PET-2, the clinical readout led to a significantly lower number of equivocal locoregional lesions (P = 0.024), and reader 2 reported a significantly higher rate of suspected lesions that were falsely interpreted as probably benign in PET-1 (P = 0.023). Exclusively in PET-2, we observed a total of 15 PSMA-positive spots in the bone marrow of 6 patients (22%). None of the 15 discordant spots had a morphologic correlate on the corresponding CT scan or on the subsequent MRI scan. Thus, ¹⁸F-PSMA-1007 exhibits a significantly higher rate of unspecific medullary spots (P = 0.0006). Conclusion: ¹⁸F-PSMA-1007 may increase confidence in interpreting small locoregional lesions adjacent to the urinary tract but may decrease the interpretability of skeletal lesions.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of ¹⁷⁷Lu-prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-617 (¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA) and selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) for the treatment of liver metastases of castration-resistant prostate cancer. Methods: Safety and survival of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer and liver metastases assigned to ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA alone (n = 31) or in combination with SIRT (n = 5) were retrospectively analyzed. Additionally, a subgroup (n = 10) was analyzed using morphologic and molecular response criteria. Results: Median estimated survival was 5.7 mo for ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA alone and 8.4 mo for combined sequential ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA and SIRT. ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA achieved discordant therapy responses with both regressive and progressive liver metastases in the same patient (best vs. worst responding metastases per patient: –35% vs. +63% diameter change; P < 0.05). SIRT was superior to ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA for the treatment of liver metastases (0% vs. 56% progression). Conclusion: The combination of ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA and SIRT is efficient and feasible for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer. ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA alone seems to have limited response rates in the treatment of liver metastases.

⁶⁸Ga-labeled urea-based inhibitors of the prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA), such as ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11, are promising small molecules for targeting prostate cancer (PCa). Although this radiopharmaceutical was produced mostly by means of manual synthesis and automated synthesis modules, a sterile cold kit was recently introduced. The aim of our study was to evaluate the image quality of ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT (PSMA-PET) in a population of PCa patients after the injection of comparable activities of ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11 obtained with the 2 different synthetic procedures. A secondary aim was to identify secondary factors that may have an impact on image quality and, thus, final interpretation. Methods: Two different groups of 100 consecutive PCa patients who underwent PSMA-PET were included in the study. The first group of patients was imaged with ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11 obtained using synthesis modules, whereas the second group’s tracer activity was synthesized using a sterile cold kit. All PET images were independently reviewed by 2 nuclear medicine diagnosticians with at least 2 y of experience in PSMA-based imaging and unaware of the patients’ clinical history. The 2 reviewers independently rated the quality of each PSMA-PET scan using a 3-point Likert-type scale. In cases of discordance, the operators together reviewed the images and reached a consensus. Performance was evaluated on the basis of the expected biodistribution, lesion detection rate, and physiologic background uptake. Results: Overall, 104 of 200 (52%) PSMA-PET scans were positive for PCa-related findings. No significant differences in image quality between cold kits and synthesis modules were found (P = 0.13), although a higher proportion of images was rated as excellent by the observers for kits than for modules (45% vs. 34%). Furthermore, after image quality had been dichotomized as excellent or not excellent, multivariate regression analysis found several factors to be significantly associated with a not-excellent quality: an increase in patient age (+5 y: odds ratio [OR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12–1.75), an increase in patient weight (+5 kg: OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.53–2.32), an increase in ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11 uptake time (+10 min: OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.08–1.96), and a decrease in injected activity (–10 MBq: OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.07–1.52). Conclusion: No significant differences were identified between the 2 groups of patients undergoing PSMA-PET; therefore, we were not able to ascertain any significant influences of tracer production methodology on final scan quality. However, increased patient age, increased patient weight, decreased injected activity, and increased ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11 uptake time were significantly associated with an overall poorer image quality.

¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 (radiohybrid prostate-specific membrane antigen [PSMA]) is a novel ligand for PET imaging. Here, we present data from a retrospective analysis using PET/CT and PET/MRI examinations to investigate the efficacy of ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET for primary N-staging of patients with prostate cancer (PC) compared with morphologic imaging (CT or MRI) and validated by histopathology. Methods: Data from 58 patients with high-risk PC (according to the D’Amico criteria) who were staged with ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET/CT or PET/MRI at our institution between July 2017 and June 2018 were reviewed. The patients had a median prescan prostate-specific antigen value of 12.2 ng/mL (range, 1.2–81.6 ng/mL). The median injected activity of ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 was 327 MBq (range, 132–410 MBq), with a median uptake time of 79.5 min (range, 60–153 min). All patients underwent subsequent radical prostatectomy and extended pelvic lymph node dissection. The presence of lymph node metastases was determined by an experienced reader independently for both the PET and the morphologic datasets using a template-based analysis on a 5-point scale. Patient-level and template-based results were both compared with histopathologic findings. Results: Lymph node metastases were present in 18 patients (31.0%) and were located in 52 of 375 templates (13.9%). Receiver-operating-characteristic analyses showed ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET to perform significantly better than morphologic imaging on both patient-based and template-based analyses (areas under curve, 0.858 vs. 0.649 [P = 0.012] and 0.765 vs. 0.589 [P < 0.001], respectively). On patient-based analyses, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET were 72.2%, 92.5%, and 86.2%, respectively, and those of morphologic imaging were 50.0%, 72.5%, and 65.5%, respectively. On template-based analyses, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET were 53.8%, 96.9%, and 90.9%, respectively, and those of morphologic imaging were 9.6%, 95.0%, and 83.2%, respectively. Conclusion: ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET is superior to morphologic imaging for N-staging of high-risk primary PC. The efficacy of ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 is similar to published data for ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11.

Radiohybrid PSMA (rhPSMA) ligands, a new class of theranostic prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)–targeting agents, feature fast ¹⁸F synthesis and utility for labeling with radiometals. Here, we assessed the biodistribution and image quality of ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 to determine the best imaging time point for patients with prostate cancer. Methods: In total, 202 prostate cancer patients who underwent a clinically indicated ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET/CT were retrospectively analyzed, and 12 groups based on the administered activity and uptake time of PET scanning were created: 3 administered activities (low, 222–296 MBq; moderate, 297–370 MBq; and high, 371–444 MBq) and 4 uptake time points (short, 50–70 min; intermediate, 71–90 min; long, 91–110 min; and extra long, ≥111 min). For quantitative analyses, SUV_mean and organ- or tumor-to-background ratio were determined for background, healthy organs, and 3 representative tumor lesions. Qualitative analyses assessed overall image quality, nonspecific blood-pool activity, and background uptake in bone or marrow using 3- or 4-point scales. Results: In quantitative analyses, SUV_mean showed a significant decrease in the blood pool and lungs and an increase in the kidneys, bladder, and bones as the uptake time increased. SUV_mean showed a trend to increase in the blood pool and bones as the administered activity increased. However, no significant differences were found in 377 tumor lesions with respect to the administered activity or uptake time. In qualitative analyses, the overall image quality was stable along with the uptake time, but the proportion rated to have good image quality decreased as the administered activity increased. All other qualitative image parameters showed no significant differences for the administered activities, but they showed significant trends with increasing uptake time: less nonspecific blood activity, more frequent background uptake in the bone marrow, and increased negative impact on clinical decision making. Conclusion: The biodistribution of ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 was similar to that of established PSMA ligands, and tumor uptake of ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 was stable across the administered activities and uptake times. An early imaging time point (50–70 min) is recommended for ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET/CT to achieve the highest overall image quality.

¹⁸F-labeled prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) PET tracers are increasingly used in preference to ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11 for restaging biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer. They are associated with longer half-lives, larger-scale production, and lower positron range than their ⁶⁸Ga-labeled counterparts. Here, we describe the efficacy of an ¹⁸F-labeled radiohybrid PSMA, rhPSMA-7, a novel theranostic PSMA-targeting agent for imaging BCR of prostate cancer. Methods: Datasets from 261 consecutive patients with noncastrate BCR after radical prostatectomy who underwent ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET/CT at our institution between June 2017 and March 2018 were reviewed retrospectively. All lesions suspected of being recurrent prostate cancer were recorded. The detection rate for sites of presumed recurrence was correlated with patients’ prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, primary Gleason score, and prior therapy (androgen deprivation therapy and external-beam radiation therapy). Results: The 261 patients had a median PSA level of 0.96 ng/mL (range, 0.01–400 ng/mL). The median injected activity of ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 was 336 MBq, with a median uptake time of 76 min. In total, 211 patients (81%) showed pathologic findings on ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET/CT. The detection rates were 71% (42/59), 86% (44/51), 86% (42/49), and 95% (76/80) at PSA levels of 0.2 to <0.5 ng/mL, 0.5 to <1 ng/mL, 1 to <2 ng/mL, and ≥2 ng/mL, respectively. In 32% patients (7/22) with a PSA of less than 0.2 ng/mL, suggestive lesions were present. ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET/CT revealed local recurrence in 43% of patients (113). Lymph node metastases were present in the pelvis in 42% of patients (110), in the retroperitoneum in 17% (45), and in a supradiaphragmatic location in 8.0% (21). Bone and visceral metastases were detected in 21% (54) and 3.8% (10), respectively. Detection efficacy was not influenced by prior external-beam radiation therapy (79.1% vs. 82.1%, P = 0.55), androgen deprivation therapy within the 6 mo preceding imaging (80.6% vs. 80.9%, P = 0.54), or primary Gleason score (77.9% for ≤7 vs. 82.6% for ≥8, P = 0.38). Conclusion: ¹⁸F-rhPSMA-7 PET/CT offers high detection rates in early BCR after radical prostatectomy, especially among patients with low PSA values.

Neuroendocrinelike transdifferentiation of prostate cancer adenocarcinomas correlates with serum levels of chromogranin A (CgA) and drives treatment resistance. The aim of this work was to evaluate whether CgA can serve as a response predictor for ¹⁷⁷Lu-prostate-specific membrane antigen 617 (PSMA) radioligand therapy (RLT) in comparison with the established tumor markers. Methods: One hundred consecutive patients with metastasized castration-resistant prostate cancer scheduled for PSMA RLT were evaluated for prostate-specific antigen (PSA), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and CgA at baseline and in follow-up of PSMA RLT. Tumor uptake of PSMA ligand, a known predictive marker for response, was assessed as a control variable. Results: From the 100 evaluated patients, 35 had partial remission, 16 stable disease, 15 mixed response, and 36 progression of disease. Tumor uptake above salivary gland uptake translated into partial remission, with an odds ratio (OR) of 60.265 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.038–720.922). Elevated LDH implied a reduced chance for partial remission, with an OR of 0.094 (95% CI, 0.017–0.518), but increased the frequency of progressive disease (OR, 2.717; 95% CI, 1.391–5.304). All patients who achieved partial remission had a normal baseline LDH. Factor-2 elevation of CgA increased the risk for progression, with an OR of 3.089 (95% CI, 1.302–7.332). Baseline PSA had no prognostic value for response prediction. Conclusion: In our cohort, baseline PSA had no prognostic value for response prediction. LDH was the marker with the strongest prognostic value, and elevated LDH increased the risk for progression of disease under PSMA RLT. Elevated CgA demonstrated a moderate impact as a negative prognostic marker in general but was explicitly related to the presence of liver metastases. Well in line with the literature, sufficient tumor uptake is a prerequisite to achieve tumor response.

For effective clinical management of patients being treated with ²²³Ra, there is a need for radiographic response biomarkers to minimize disease progression and to stratify patients for subsequent treatment options. The objective of this study was to evaluate an automated bone scan index (aBSI) as a quantitative assessment of bone scans for radiographic response in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Methods: In a multicenter retrospective study, bone scans from patients with mCRPC treated with monthly injections of ²²³Ra were collected from 7 hospitals in Sweden. Patients with available bone scans before treatment with ²²³Ra and at treatment discontinuation were eligible for the study. The aBSI was generated at baseline and at treatment discontinuation. The Spearman rank correlation was used to correlate aBSI with the baseline covariates: alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA). The Cox proportional-hazards model and Kaplan–Meier curve were used to evaluate the association of covariates at baseline and their change at treatment discontinuation with overall survival (OS). The concordance index (C-index) was used to evaluate the discriminating strength of covariates in predicting OS. Results: Bone scan images at baseline were available from 156 patients, and 67 patients had both a baseline and a treatment discontinuation bone scan (median, 5 doses; interquartile range, 3–6 doses). Baseline aBSI (median, 4.5; interquartile range, 2.4–6.5) was moderately correlated with ALP (r = 0.60, P < 0.0001) and with PSA (r = 0.38, P = 0.003). Among baseline covariates, aBSI (P = 0.01) and ALP (P = 0.001) were significantly associated with OS, whereas PSA values were not (P = 0.059). After treatment discontinuation, 36% (24/67), 80% (54/67), and 13% (9/67) of patients demonstrated a decline in aBSI, ALP, and PSA, respectively. As a continuous variable, the relative change in aBSI after treatment, compared with baseline, was significantly associated with OS (P < 0.0001), with a C-index of 0.67. Median OS in patients with both aBSI and ALP decline (median, 134 wk) was significantly longer than in patients with ALP decline only (median, 77 wk; P = 0.029). Conclusion: Both aBSI at baseline and its change at treatment discontinuation were significant parameters associated with OS. The study warrants prospective validation of aBSI as a quantitative imaging response biomarker to predict OS in patients with mCRPC treated with ²²³Ra.

ABSTRACTBackground:The focused assessment with sonography for HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) (FASH) ultrasound protocol has been increasingly used to help clinicians diagnose TB. We sought to quantify the diagnostic utility of FASH for TB among individuals with HIV in Malawi.Methods:Between March 2016 and August 2017, 210 adults with HIV who had 2 or more signs and symptoms that were concerning for TB (fever, cough, night sweats, weight loss) were enrolled from a public HIV clinic in Lilongwe, Malawi. The treating clinicians conducted a history, physical exam, FASH protocol, and additional TB evaluation (laboratory diagnostics and chest radiography) on all participants. The clinician made a final treatment decision based on all available information. At the 6-month follow-up visit, we categorized participants based on clinical outcomes and diagnostic tests as having probable/confirmed TB or unlikely TB; association of FASH with probable/confirmed TB was calculated using Fisher's exact tests. The impact of FASH on empiric TB treatment was determined by asking the clinicians prospectively about whether they would start treatment at 2 time points in the baseline visit: (1) after the initial history and physical exam; and (2) after history, physical exam, and FASH protocol.Results:A total of 181 participants underwent final analysis, of whom 56 were categorized as probable/confirmed TB and 125 were categorized as unlikely TB. The FASH protocol was positive in 71% (40/56) of participants with probable/confirmed TB compared to 24% (30/125) of participants with unlikely TB (odds ratio=7.9, 95% confidence interval=3.9,16.1; P<.001). Among those classified as confirmed/probable TB, FASH increased the likelihood of empiric TB treatment before obtaining any other diagnostic studies from 9% (5/56) to 46% (26/56) at the point-of-care. For those classified as unlikely TB, FASH increased the likelihood of empiric treatment from 2% to 4%.Conclusion:In the setting of HIV coinfection in Malawi, FASH can be a helpful tool that augments the clinician's ability to make a timely diagnosis of TB.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence of and factors associated with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m² in people with diabetes.

PURPOSE

We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of use of the Fasting Algorithm for Singaporeans with Type 2 Diabetes (FAST) during Ramadan.

PURPOSE

Most real-world studies on anticoagulants have been based on health insurance databases or performed in secondary care. The aim of this study was to compare safety and effectiveness between patients treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) and patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in a general practice setting.

PURPOSE

The prognosis of older patients with dizziness in primary care is unknown. Our objective was to determine the prognosis and survival of patients with different subtypes and causes of dizziness.

Background:

Historically, some chiropractors have been critical of vaccination, and this has been the subject of recent media attention in Canada. We explored the association between media attention and public dissemination of vaccination information on Canadian chiropractors’ websites.

Purpose:

Radium-223 is approved for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) based on improved overall survival, and delay in skeletal related events. However, it is not associated with PSA or radiographic response, which poses a challenge in real-time assessment of its efficacy. Surrogate markers of treatment outcomes may facilitate tailoring treatment duration with radium-223, by limiting the duration of therapy with radium-223 in these patients. Here, we sought to investigate the utility of bone metabolic markers (BMMs) as surrogate markers of response to radium-223 in mCRPC.

Background:

The impact of light-intensity physical activity (LPA) in preventing cancer mortality has been questioned. To address this concern, the present meta-analysis aimed to quantify the association between objectively-measured LPA and risk of cancer mortality.

Background:

Research on the relationship of meat, fish, and egg consumption and mortality among prostate cancer survivors is limited.

Background:

Total antioxidant capacity (TAC) reflects an individual's overall antioxidant intake. We sought to clarify whether higher TAC is associated with lower risks of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in the U.S. general population.

Background:

Colonoscopy follow-up recommendations depend on the presence or absence of polyps, and if found, their number, size, and histology. Patients may be responsible for conveying results between primary and specialty care or providing medical information to family members; thus, accurate reporting is critical. This analysis assessed the accuracy of self-reported colonoscopy findings.

Background:

Energy balance–related factors, such as body mass index (BMI), diet, and physical activity, may influence colorectal cancer etiology through interconnected metabolic pathways, but their combined influence is less clear.

Although ample evidence indicates that immune cell homeostasis is an important prognostic outcome determinant in patients with cancer, few studies have examined whether it also determines cancer risk among initially healthy individuals. We performed a case–cohort study including incident cases of breast (n = 207), colorectal (n = 111), lung (n = 70), and prostate (n = 201) cancer as well as a subcohort (n = 465) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Heidelberg cohort. Relative counts of neutrophils, monocytes, and lymphocyte sublineages were measured by qRT-PCR. HRs and 95% confidence intervals were used to measure the associations between relative counts of immune cell and cancer risks. When relative counts of immune cell types were taken individually, a significant positive association was observed between relative counts of FOXP3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs) and lung cancer risk, and significant inverse associations were observed between relative CD8+ counts and risks of lung and breast cancer (overall and ER+ subtype). Multivariable models with mutual adjustments across immune markers showed further significant positive associations between higher relative FOXP3+ T-cell counts and increased risks of colorectal and breast cancer (overall and ER− subtype). No associations were found between immune cell composition and prostate cancer risk. These results affirm the relevance of elevated FOXP3+ Tregs and lower levels of cytotoxic (CD8+) T cells as risk factors for tumor development.Significance:This epidemiologic study supports a role for both regulatory and cytotoxic T cells in determining cancer risk among healthy individuals.See related commentary by Song and Tworoger, p. 1801

MIT conference considers companies that have implemented job-friendly AI

Chris enters the confessional and spills the beans about what evil deeds he’s been up to in Fallout 4 and Tales of Zestiria. Alex Dances...

Newly released FBI documents suggest a federal judge in Washington was swayed by apparent misrepresentations from a top prosecutor when he issued a memorandum opinion in December 2019 -- a ruling that marked one of the lowest points in former U.S. national security adviser Michael Flynn's effort to withdraw a guilty plea on a charge of lying to investigators.

Former deputy prime minister Lord Heseltine today leads a chorus of business leaders and grandees urging Boris Johnson to feed the "hunger for hope" in locked-down Britain by mapping out a clear route back to prosperity.

In this article, we want to evaluate the pros and cons of starting a farming business. Farming is a go-to line of business which is always strategic no matter the time and place. People will always want to eat so starting a farming business is clearly a perfect fit for aspiring entrepreneurs. However, there are […]

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In times that have kept golfers away from courses and ranges, players had to get creative.

The final outcome of COVID-19 is still unclear. It will ultimately be decided by our patience and the financial bottom line.Castleski / Shutterstock

On January 5, six days after China officially announced a spate of unusual pneumonia cases, a team of researchers at Shanghai’s Fudan University deposited the full genome sequence of the causal virus, SARS-CoV-2, into Genbank. A little more than three months later, 4,528 genomes of SARS-CoV-2 have been sequenced,1 and more than 883 COVID-related clinical trials2 for treatments and vaccines have been established. The speed with which these trials will deliver results is unknown—the delicate bаlance of efficacy and safety can only be pushed so far before the risks outweigh the benefits. For this reason, a long-term solution like vaccination may take years to come to market.3

The good news is that a lack of treatment doesn’t preclude an end to the ordeal. Viral outbreaks of Ebola and SARS, neither of which had readily available vaccines, petered out through the application of consistent public health strategies—testing, containment, and long-term behavioral adaptations. Today countries that have previously battled the 2002 SARS epidemic, like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, have shown exemplary recovery rates from COVID. Tomorrow, countries with high fatality rates like Sweden, Belgium, and the United Kingdom will have the opportunity to demonstrate what they’ve learned when the next outbreak comes to their shores. And so will we.

The first Ebola case was identified in 1976,4 when a patient with hemorrhagic symptoms arrived at the Yambuku Mission Hospital, located in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Patient samples were collected and sent to several European laboratories that specialized in rare viruses. Scientists, without sequencing technology, took about five weeks to identify the agent responsible for the illness as a new member of the highly pathogenic Filoviridae family.

The first Ebola outbreak sickened 686 individuals across the DRC and neighboring Sudan. 453 of the patients died, with a final case fatality rate (CFR)—the number of dead out of number of sickened—of 66 percent. Despite the lethality of the virus, sociocultural interventions, including lockdowns, contact-tracing, campaigns to change funeral rites, and restrictions on consumption of game meat all proved effective interventions in the long run.

That is, until 2014, when there was an exception to the pattern. Ebola appeared in Guinea, a small country in West Africa, whose population had never before been exposed to the virus. The closest epidemic had been in Gabon, 13 years before and 2,500 miles away. Over the course of two years, the infection spread from Guinea into Liberia and Sierra Leone, sickening more than 24,000 people and killing more than 10,000.

Countries that have previously battled the 2002 SARS epidemic, like Taiwan and Hong Kong, have shown exemplary recovery rates.

During the initial phase of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, rural communities were reluctant to cooperate with government directives for how to care for the sick and the dead. To help incentivize behavioral changes, sociocultural anthropologists like Mariane Ferme of the University of California, Berkeley, were brought in to advise the government. In a recent interview with Nautilus, Ferme indicated that strategies that allowed rural communities to remain involved with their loved ones increased cooperation. Villages located far from the capital, she said, were encouraged to “deputize someone to come to the hospital, to come to the burial, so they could come back to the community and tell the story of the body.” For communities that couldn’t afford to send someone to the capital, she saw public health officials adopt a savvy technological solution—tablets to record video messages that were carried between convalescent patients and their families.

However, there were also systemic failures that, in Ferme’s opinion, contributed to the severity of the 2014 West African epidemic. In Sierra Leone, she said, “the big mistake early on was to distribute [weakly causal] information about zoonotic transmission, even when it was obviously community transmission.” In other words, although there had been an instance of zoonotic transmission—the virus jumping from a bat to a human—that initiated the epidemic, the principle danger was other contagious individuals, not game meat. Eventually, under pressure from relief groups, the government changed its messaging to reflect scientific consensus.

But the retraction shook public faith in the government and bred resentment. The mismatch between messaging and reality mirrors the current pandemic. Since the COVID outbreak began, international and government health officials have issued mixed messages. Doubts initially surfaced about the certainty of the virus being capable of spreading from person to person, and the debate over the effectiveness of masks in preventing infection continues.

Despite the confused messaging, there has been general compliance with stay-at-home orders that has helped flatten the curve. Had the public been less trusting of government directives, the outcome could have been disastrous, as it was in Libera in 2014. After a two-week lockdown was announced, the Liberian army conducted house-to-house sweeps to check for the sick and collect the dead. “It was a draconian method that made people hide the sick and dead in their houses,” Ferme said. People feared their loved ones would be buried without the proper rites. A direct consequence was a staggering number of active cases, and an unknown extent of community transmission. But in the end, the benchmark for the end of Ebola and SARS was the same. The WHO declared victory when the rate of new cases slowed, then stopped. By the same measure, when an entire 14-day quarantine period passes with no new cases of COVID-19, it can be declared over.

It remains possible that even if we manage to end the epidemic, it will return again. Driven by novel zoonotic transmissions, Ebola has flared up every few years. Given the extent of COVID-19’s spread, and the potential for the kind of mutations that allow for re-infection, it may simply become endemic.

Two factors will play into the final outcome of COVID-19 are pathogenicity and virulence. Pathogenicity is the ability of an infectious agent to cause disease in the host, and is measured by R0—the number of new infections each patient can generate. Virulence, on the other hand, is the amount of harm the infectious agent can cause, and is best measured by CFR. While the pathogenicity of Ebola, SARS, and SARS-CoV-2 is on the same order—somewhere between 1 to 3 new infections for each patient, virulence differs greatly between the two SARS viruses and Ebola.

The case fatality rate for an Ebola infection is between 60 to 90 percent. The spread in CFR is due to differences in infection dynamics between strains. The underlying cause of the divergent virulence of Ebola and SARS is largely due to the tropism of the virus, meaning the cells that it attacks. The mechanism by which the Ebola virus gains entry into cells is not fully understood, but it has been shown the virus preferentially targets immune and epithelial cells.5 In other words, the virus first destroys the body’s ability to mount a defense, and then destroys the delicate tissues that line the vascular system. Patients bleed freely and most often succumb to low blood pressure that results from severe fluid loss. However, neither SARS nor SARS-CoV-2 attack the immune system directly. Instead, they enter lung epithelial cells through the ACE2 receptor, which ensures a lower CFR. What is interesting about these coronaviruses is that despite their similar modes of infection, they demonstrate a range of virulence: SARS had a final CFR of 10 percent, while SARS-CoV-2 has a pending CFR of 1.4 percent. Differences in virulence between the 2002 and 2019 SARS outbreaks could be attributed to varying levels of care between countries.

The chart above displays WHO data of the relationship between the total number of cases in a country and the CFR during the 2002-2003 SARS-CoV epidemic. South Africa, on the far right, had only a single case. The patient died, which resulted in a 100 percent CFR. China, on the other hand, had 5,327 cases and 349 deaths, giving a 7 percent CFR. The chart below zooms to the bottom left corner of the graph, so as to better resolve critically affected countries, those with a caseload of less than 1,000, but with a high CFR.

Here is Hong Kong, with 1,755 cases and a 17 percent CFR. There is also Taiwan, with 346 cases and an 11 percent CFR. Finally, nearly tied with Canada is Singapore with 238 cases and a 14 percent CFR.

With COVID-19, it’s apparent that outcome reflects experience. China has 82,747 cases of COVID, but has lowered their CFR to 4 percent. Hong Kong has 1,026 cases and a 0.4 percent CFR. Taiwan has 422 cases at 1.5 percent CFR, and Singapore with 8,014 cases, has a 0.13 percent CFR.

It was the novel coronavirus identification program established in China in the wake of the 2002 SARS epidemic that alerted authorities to SARS-CoV-2 back in November of 2019. The successful responses by Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore can also be attributed to a residual familiarity with the dangers of an unknown virus, and the sorts of interventions that are necessary to prevent a crisis from spiraling out of control.

In West Africa, too, they seem to have learned the value of being prepared. When Ferme returned to Liberia on March 7, she encountered airport staff fully protected with gowns, head covers, face screens, masks, and gloves. By the time she left the country, 10 days later, she said, “Airline personnel were setting up social distancing lines, and [rural vendors] hawking face masks. Motorcycle taxis drivers, the people most at risk after healthcare workers—all had goggles and face masks.”

The sheer number of COVID-19 cases indicates the road to recovery will take some time. Each must be identified, quarantined, and all contacts traced and tested. Countries that failed to act swiftly, which allowed their case numbers to spiral out of control, will pay in lives and dollars. Northwestern University economists Martin Eichenbaum et al. modeled6 the cost of a yearlong shutdown to be $4.2 trillion, a cost that proactive countries will not face. A recent Harvard study7 published in Science suggests the virus will likely make seasonal appearances going forward, potentially requiring new waves of social distancing. In other words, initial hesitancy will have repercussions for years. In the future, smart containment principles,6 where restrictions are applied on the basis of health status, may temper the impact of these measures.

Countries that failed to act swiftly, which allowed their case numbers to spiral out of control, will pay in lives and dollars.

Inaction was initially framed as promoting herd immunity, where spread of the virus is interrupted once everyone has fallen sick with it. This is because getting the virus results in the same antibody production process as getting vaccinated—but doesn’t require the development of a vaccine. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimates that 70 percent of the population will need to be infected with or vaccinated against the virus8 for herd immunity to work. Progress toward it has been slow, and can only be achieved through direct infection with the virus, meaning many will die. A Stanford University study in Santa Clara County9 suggests only 2.5 percent to 4.2 percent of the population have had the virus. Another COVID hotspot in Gangelt, Germany, suggests 15 percent10—higher, but still nowhere near the 70 percent necessary for herd immunity. Given the dangers inherent in waiting on herd immunity, our best hope is a vaccine.

A key concern for effective vaccine development is viral mutation. This is because vaccines train the immune system to recognize specific shapes on the surface of the virus—a composite structure called the antigen. Mutations threaten vaccine development because they can change the shape of the relevant antigen, effectively allowing the pathogen to evade immune surveillance. But, so far, SARS-CoV-2 has been mutating slowly, with only one mutation found in the section most accessible to the immune system, the spike protein. What this suggests is that the viral genome may be sufficiently stable for vaccine development.

What we know, though, is that Ebola was extinguished due to cooperation between public health officials and community leaders. SARS-CoV ended when all cases were identified and quarantined. The Spanish Flu in 1918 vanished after two long, deadly seasons.

The final outcome of COVID-19 is still unclear. It will ultimately be decided by our patience and the financial bottom line. With 26 million unemployed and protests erupting around the country, it seems there are many who would prefer to risk life and limb rather than face financial insolvency. Applying smart containment principles in the aftermath of the shutdown might be the best way to get the economy moving again, while maintaining the safety of those at greatest risk. Going forward, vigilance and preparedness will be the watchwords of the day, and the most efficient way to prevent social and economic ruin.

Anastasia Bendebury and Michael Shilo DeLay did their PhDs at Columbia University. Together they created Demystifying Science, a science literacy organization devoted to providing clear, mechanistic explanations for natural phenomena. Find them on Twitter @DemystifySci.

References

1. Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus - Global subsampling. Nextstrain www.nextstrain.org.

2. Covid-19 TrialsTracker. TrialsTracker www.trialstracker.net.

3. Struck, M. Vaccine R&D success rates and development times. Nature Biotechnology 14, 591-593 (1996).

4. Breman, J. & Johnson, K. Ebola then and now. The New England Journal of Medicine 371 1663-1666 (2014).

5. Baseler, L., Chertow, D.S., Johnson, K.M., Feldmann, H., & Morens, D.M. THe pathogenesis of Ebola virus disease. The Annual Review of Pathology 12, 387-418 (2017).

6. Eichenbaum, M., Rebell, S., & Trabandt, M. The macroeconomics of epidemics. The National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper: 26882 (2020).

7. Kissler, S., Tedijanto, C., Goldstein, E., Grad, Y., & Lipsitch, M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science eabb5793 (2020).

8. D’ Souza, G. & Dowdy, D. What is herd immunity and how can we achieve it with COVID-19? Johns Hopkins COVID-19 School of Public Health Insights www.jhsph.edu (2020).

9. Digitale, E. Test for antibodies against novel coronavirus developed at Stanford Medicine. Stanford Medicine News Center Med.Stanford.edu (2020).

10. Winkler, M. Blood tests show 14%of people are now immune to COVID-19 in one town in Germany. MIT Technology Review (2020).

On January 5, six days after China officially announced a spate of unusual pneumonia cases, a team of researchers at Shanghai’s Fudan University deposited the full genome sequence of the causal virus, SARS-CoV-2, into Genbank. A little more than three months later, 4,528 genomes of SARS-CoV-2 have been sequenced,1 and more than 883 COVID-related clinical trials2 for treatments and vaccines have been established. The speed with which these trials will deliver results is unknown—the delicate bаlance of efficacy and safety can only be pushed so far before the risks outweigh the benefits. For this reason, a long-term solution like vaccination may take years to come to market.3

The good news is that a lack of treatment doesn’t preclude an end to the ordeal. Viral outbreaks of Ebola and SARS, neither of which had readily available vaccines, petered out through the application of consistent public health strategies—testing, containment, and long-term behavioral adaptations. Today countries that have previously battled the 2002 SARS epidemic, like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, have shown exemplary recovery rates from COVID. Tomorrow, countries with high fatality rates like Sweden, Belgium, and the United Kingdom will have the opportunity to demonstrate what they’ve learned when the next outbreak comes to their shores. And so will we.

The first Ebola case was identified in 1976,4 when a patient with hemorrhagic symptoms arrived at the Yambuku Mission Hospital, located in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Patient samples were collected and sent to several European laboratories that specialized in rare viruses. Scientists, without sequencing technology, took about five weeks to identify the agent responsible for the illness as a new member of the highly pathogenic Filoviridae family.

The first Ebola outbreak sickened 686 individuals across the DRC and neighboring Sudan. 453 of the patients died, with a final case fatality rate (CFR)—the number of dead out of number of sickened—of 66 percent. Despite the lethality of the virus, sociocultural interventions, including lockdowns, contact-tracing, campaigns to change funeral rites, and restrictions on consumption of game meat all proved effective interventions in the long run.

That is, until 2014, when there was an exception to the pattern. Ebola appeared in Guinea, a small country in West Africa, whose population had never before been exposed to the virus. The closest epidemic had been in Gabon, 13 years before and 2,500 miles away. Over the course of two years, the infection spread from Guinea into Liberia and Sierra Leone, sickening more than 24,000 people and killing more than 10,000.

Countries that have previously battled the 2002 SARS epidemic, like Taiwan and Hong Kong, have shown exemplary recovery rates.

During the initial phase of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, rural communities were reluctant to cooperate with government directives for how to care for the sick and the dead. To help incentivize behavioral changes, sociocultural anthropologists like Mariane Ferme of the University of California, Berkeley, were brought in to advise the government. In a recent interview with Nautilus, Ferme indicated that strategies that allowed rural communities to remain involved with their loved ones increased cooperation. Villages located far from the capital, she said, were encouraged to “deputize someone to come to the hospital, to come to the burial, so they could come back to the community and tell the story of the body.” For communities that couldn’t afford to send someone to the capital, she saw public health officials adopt a savvy technological solution—tablets to record video messages that were carried between convalescent patients and their families.

However, there were also systemic failures that, in Ferme’s opinion, contributed to the severity of the 2014 West African epidemic. In Sierra Leone, she said, “the big mistake early on was to distribute [weakly causal] information about zoonotic transmission, even when it was obviously community transmission.” In other words, although there had been an instance of zoonotic transmission—the virus jumping from a bat to a human—that initiated the epidemic, the principle danger was other contagious individuals, not game meat. Eventually, under pressure from relief groups, the government changed its messaging to reflect scientific consensus.

But the retraction shook public faith in the government and bred resentment. The mismatch between messaging and reality mirrors the current pandemic. Since the COVID outbreak began, international and government health officials have issued mixed messages. Doubts initially surfaced about the certainty of the virus being capable of spreading from person to person, and the debate over the effectiveness of masks in preventing infection continues.

Despite the confused messaging, there has been general compliance with stay-at-home orders that has helped flatten the curve. Had the public been less trusting of government directives, the outcome could have been disastrous, as it was in Libera in 2014. After a two-week lockdown was announced, the Liberian army conducted house-to-house sweeps to check for the sick and collect the dead. “It was a draconian method that made people hide the sick and dead in their houses,” Ferme said. People feared their loved ones would be buried without the proper rites. A direct consequence was a staggering number of active cases, and an unknown extent of community transmission. But in the end, the benchmark for the end of Ebola and SARS was the same. The WHO declared victory when the rate of new cases slowed, then stopped. By the same measure, when an entire 14-day quarantine period passes with no new cases of COVID-19, it can be declared over.

It remains possible that even if we manage to end the epidemic, it will return again. Driven by novel zoonotic transmissions, Ebola has flared up every few years. Given the extent of COVID-19’s spread, and the potential for the kind of mutations that allow for re-infection, it may simply become endemic.

Two factors will play into the final outcome of COVID-19 are pathogenicity and virulence. Pathogenicity is the ability of an infectious agent to cause disease in the host, and is measured by R0—the number of new infections each patient can generate. Virulence, on the other hand, is the amount of harm the infectious agent can cause, and is best measured by CFR. While the pathogenicity of Ebola, SARS, and SARS-CoV-2 is on the same order—somewhere between 1 to 3 new infections for each patient, virulence differs greatly between the two SARS viruses and Ebola.

The case fatality rate for an Ebola infection is between 60 to 90 percent. The spread in CFR is due to differences in infection dynamics between strains. The underlying cause of the divergent virulence of Ebola and SARS is largely due to the tropism of the virus, meaning the cells that it attacks. The mechanism by which the Ebola virus gains entry into cells is not fully understood, but it has been shown the virus preferentially targets immune and epithelial cells.5 In other words, the virus first destroys the body’s ability to mount a defense, and then destroys the delicate tissues that line the vascular system. Patients bleed freely and most often succumb to low blood pressure that results from severe fluid loss. However, neither SARS nor SARS-CoV-2 attack the immune system directly. Instead, they enter lung epithelial cells through the ACE2 receptor, which ensures a lower CFR. What is interesting about these coronaviruses is that despite their similar modes of infection, they demonstrate a range of virulence: SARS had a final CFR of 10 percent, while SARS-CoV-2 has a pending CFR of 1.4 percent. Differences in virulence between the 2002 and 2019 SARS outbreaks could be attributed to varying levels of care between countries.

The chart above displays WHO data of the relationship between the total number of cases in a country and the CFR during the 2002-2003 SARS-CoV epidemic. South Africa, on the far right, had only a single case. The patient died, which resulted in a 100 percent CFR. China, on the other hand, had 5,327 cases and 349 deaths, giving a 7 percent CFR. The chart below zooms to the bottom left corner of the graph, so as to better resolve critically affected countries, those with a caseload of less than 1,000, but with a high CFR.

Here is Hong Kong, with 1,755 cases and a 17 percent CFR. There is also Taiwan, with 346 cases and an 11 percent CFR. Finally, nearly tied with Canada is Singapore with 238 cases and a 14 percent CFR.

With COVID-19, it’s apparent that outcome reflects experience. China has 82,747 cases of COVID, but has lowered their CFR to 4 percent. Hong Kong has 1,026 cases and a 0.4 percent CFR. Taiwan has 422 cases at 1.5 percent CFR, and Singapore with 8,014 cases, has a 0.13 percent CFR.

It was the novel coronavirus identification program established in China in the wake of the 2002 SARS epidemic that alerted authorities to SARS-CoV-2 back in November of 2019. The successful responses by Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore can also be attributed to a residual familiarity with the dangers of an unknown virus, and the sorts of interventions that are necessary to prevent a crisis from spiraling out of control.

In West Africa, too, they seem to have learned the value of being prepared. When Ferme returned to Liberia on March 7, she encountered airport staff fully protected with gowns, head covers, face screens, masks, and gloves. By the time she left the country, 10 days later, she said, “Airline personnel were setting up social distancing lines, and [rural vendors] hawking face masks. Motorcycle taxis drivers, the people most at risk after healthcare workers—all had goggles and face masks.”

The sheer number of COVID-19 cases indicates the road to recovery will take some time. Each must be identified, quarantined, and all contacts traced and tested. Countries that failed to act swiftly, which allowed their case numbers to spiral out of control, will pay in lives and dollars. Northwestern University economists Martin Eichenbaum et al. modeled6 the cost of a yearlong shutdown to be $4.2 trillion, a cost that proactive countries will not face. A recent Harvard study7 published in Science suggests the virus will likely make seasonal appearances going forward, potentially requiring new waves of social distancing. In other words, initial hesitancy will have repercussions for years. In the future, smart containment principles,6 where restrictions are applied on the basis of health status, may temper the impact of these measures.

Countries that failed to act swiftly, which allowed their case numbers to spiral out of control, will pay in lives and dollars.

Inaction was initially framed as promoting herd immunity, where spread of the virus is interrupted once everyone has fallen sick with it. This is because getting the virus results in the same antibody production process as getting vaccinated—but doesn’t require the development of a vaccine. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimates that 70 percent of the population will need to be infected with or vaccinated against the virus8 for herd immunity to work. Progress toward it has been slow, and can only be achieved through direct infection with the virus, meaning many will die. A Stanford University study in Santa Clara County9 suggests only 2.5 percent to 4.2 percent of the population have had the virus. Another COVID hotspot in Gangelt, Germany, suggests 15 percent10—higher, but still nowhere near the 70 percent necessary for herd immunity. Given the dangers inherent in waiting on herd immunity, our best hope is a vaccine.

A key concern for effective vaccine development is viral mutation. This is because vaccines train the immune system to recognize specific shapes on the surface of the virus—a composite structure called the antigen. Mutations threaten vaccine development because they can change the shape of the relevant antigen, effectively allowing the pathogen to evade immune surveillance. But, so far, SARS-CoV-2 has been mutating slowly, with only one mutation found in the section most accessible to the immune system, the spike protein. What this suggests is that the viral genome may be sufficiently stable for vaccine development.

What we know, though, is that Ebola was extinguished due to cooperation between public health officials and community leaders. SARS-CoV ended when all cases were identified and quarantined. The Spanish Flu in 1918 vanished after two long, deadly seasons.

The final outcome of COVID-19 is still unclear. It will ultimately be decided by our patience and the financial bottom line. With 26 million unemployed and protests erupting around the country, it seems there are many who would prefer to risk life and limb rather than face financial insolvency. Applying smart containment principles in the aftermath of the shutdown might be the best way to get the economy moving again, while maintaining the safety of those at greatest risk. Going forward, vigilance and preparedness will be the watchwords of the day, and the most efficient way to prevent social and economic ruin.

Anastasia Bendebury and Michael Shilo DeLay did their PhDs at Columbia University. Together they created Demystifying Science, a science literacy organization devoted to providing clear, mechanistic explanations for natural phenomena. Find them on Twitter @DemystifySci.

References

1. Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus - Global subsampling. Nextstrain www.nextstrain.org.

2. Covid-19 TrialsTracker. TrialsTracker www.trialstracker.net.

3. Struck, M. Vaccine R&D success rates and development times. Nature Biotechnology 14, 591-593 (1996).

4. Breman, J. & Johnson, K. Ebola then and now. The New England Journal of Medicine 371 1663-1666 (2014).

5. Baseler, L., Chertow, D.S., Johnson, K.M., Feldmann, H., & Morens, D.M. THe pathogenesis of Ebola virus disease. The Annual Review of Pathology 12, 387-418 (2017).

6. Eichenbaum, M., Rebell, S., & Trabandt, M. The macroeconomics of epidemics. The National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper: 26882 (2020).

7. Kissler, S., Tedijanto, C., Goldstein, E., Grad, Y., & Lipsitch, M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science eabb5793 (2020).

8. D’ Souza, G. & Dowdy, D. What is herd immunity and how can we achieve it with COVID-19? Johns Hopkins COVID-19 School of Public Health Insights www.jhsph.edu (2020).

9. Digitale, E. Test for antibodies against novel coronavirus developed at Stanford Medicine. Stanford Medicine News Center Med.Stanford.edu (2020).

10. Winkler, M. Blood tests show 14%of people are now immune to COVID-19 in one town in Germany. MIT Technology Review (2020).

Lead image: Castleski / Shutterstock

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