ria A Moroccan horseman setting off with a rifle to perform at an equestrian display (fantasia, Tbourida). Etching and drypoint by L.A. Lecouteux after H. Regnault, 1870. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Full Article
ria Monastery of El Escorial, Madrid: Courtyard of the Kings, and the basilica. Coloured etching, 17--. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: [between 1700 and 1799] Full Article
ria Monastery of El Escorial, Madrid: Courtyard of the Evangelists. Coloured etching, 17--. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: [between 1700 and 1799] Full Article
ria Palmyra, Syria: remains of the ancient buildings. Coloured etching, 17--. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: [London] (No 69 St Paul's Churchyard) : Printed for Carington Bowles ; [London] (opposite Fetter Lane, Fleet Street) : Robt. Sayer ; [London] (in Cornhil) : Robert Wilkinson, [between 1700 and 1799] Full Article
ria Palmyra, Syria: remains of the temple of the sun. Coloured etching, 17--. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: [London] (in St Pauls Churchyard) : Printed for T. Bowles ; [London] (at the Black Horse in Cornhil) : John Bowles & Son ; [London] (opposite Fetter Lane in Fleet Street) : R. Sayer, [between 1700 and 1799] Full Article
ria The dynastic marriage of William of Orange and Mary Stuart: above, they are brought together before a bust of Hercules; below, their wedding in London on 4 November 1677. Etching by R. de Hooghe, 1678. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: [The Netherlands] : [Romeyn de Hooghe?], [1678?] Full Article
ria The marriage of King Charles I and Princess Henrietta Maria in Notre Dame cathedral, Paris, 1625. Engraving by N. Dupuis, 1728, after L. Chéron. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: London : Printed & sold by Thos. & John Bowles, printsellers, [1728] Full Article
ria King Charles I on horseback outside the city walls of Hull: the Parliamentarians inside, led by Sir John Hotham, refuse to surrender the city. Engraving by N. Tardieu after C. Parrocel. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: London : Printed and sold by Thos. and John Bowles, printsellers, [1728] Full Article
ria The birth of Henri IV at the castle of Pau. Etching by E.J. Ramus after Eugène-François-Marie-Joseph Devéria. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Full Article
ria Brian Whiston, Michigan State Schools Chief, Dies at 56 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 08 May 2018 00:00:00 +0000 Brian Whiston, who was hired in 2015, set ambitious goals for the state and helped create its accountability plan under the Every Student Succeeds Act. Full Article Michigan
ria Silly Limbig : a tail of bravery / by Naomi Harvey ; illustrations by Daria Danilova. By search.wellcomelibrary.org Published On :: Great Britain : CreateSpace, 2017. Full Article
ria The Umbilical Family / Cate Sawyer & Adriana Avellis. By search.wellcomelibrary.org Published On :: [QLD, Australia] : Hawkeye Publishing, 2018. Full Article
ria The role of mass media in preventing adolescent substance abuse / Brian R. Flay and Judith L. Sobel. By search.wellcomelibrary.org Published On :: Rockville, Maryland : National Institute on Drug Abuse, [1983] Full Article
ria Drug abuse treatment client characteristics and pretreatment behaviors : 1979-1981 TOPS admission cohorts / Robert L. Hubbard, Robert M. Bray, Elizabeth R. Cavanaugh, J. Valley Rachal, S. Gail Craddock, James J. Collins, Margaret Allison ; Research Triang By search.wellcomelibrary.org Published On :: Rockville, Maryland : National Institute on Drug Abuse, 1986. Full Article
ria Series 02: H.C. Dorman pictorial material, 1960-1967 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: 1/10/2015 12:00:00 AM Full Article
ria Nonparametric confidence intervals for conditional quantiles with large-dimensional covariates By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 22:00 EDT Laurent Gardes. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 661--701.Abstract: The first part of the paper is dedicated to the construction of a $gamma$ - nonparametric confidence interval for a conditional quantile with a level depending on the sample size. When this level tends to 0 or 1 as the sample size increases, the conditional quantile is said to be extreme and is located in the tail of the conditional distribution. The proposed confidence interval is constructed by approximating the distribution of the order statistics selected with a nearest neighbor approach by a Beta distribution. We show that its coverage probability converges to the preselected probability $gamma $ and its accuracy is illustrated on a simulation study. When the dimension of the covariate increases, the coverage probability of the confidence interval can be very different from $gamma $. This is a well known consequence of the data sparsity especially in the tail of the distribution. In a second part, a dimension reduction procedure is proposed in order to select more appropriate nearest neighbors in the right tail of the distribution and in turn to obtain a better coverage probability for extreme conditional quantiles. This procedure is based on the Tail Conditional Independence assumption introduced in (Gardes, Extremes , pp. 57–95, 18(3) , 2018). Full Article
ria Parseval inequalities and lower bounds for variance-based sensitivity indices By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 22:00 EDT Olivier Roustant, Fabrice Gamboa, Bertrand Iooss. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 386--412.Abstract: The so-called polynomial chaos expansion is widely used in computer experiments. For example, it is a powerful tool to estimate Sobol’ sensitivity indices. In this paper, we consider generalized chaos expansions built on general tensor Hilbert basis. In this frame, we revisit the computation of the Sobol’ indices with Parseval equalities and give general lower bounds for these indices obtained by truncation. The case of the eigenfunctions system associated with a Poincaré differential operator leads to lower bounds involving the derivatives of the analyzed function and provides an efficient tool for variable screening. These lower bounds are put in action both on toy and real life models demonstrating their accuracy. Full Article
ria Consistent model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit test for common time series models By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 22:02 EDT Jean-Marc Bardet, Kare Kamila, William Kengne. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 2009--2052.Abstract: This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($infty $) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($infty $), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. To tackle this issue, we consider a penalized contrast based on the quasi-likelihood of the model. We provide sufficient conditions for the penalty term to ensure the consistency of the proposed procedure as well as the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the chosen model. We also propose a tool for diagnosing the goodness-of-fit of the chosen model based on a Portmanteau test. Monte-Carlo experiments and numerical applications on illustrative examples are performed to highlight the obtained asymptotic results. Moreover, using a data-driven choice of the penalty, they show the practical efficiency of this new model selection procedure and Portemanteau test. Full Article
ria Univariate mean change point detection: Penalization, CUSUM and optimality By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 22:02 EDT Daren Wang, Yi Yu, Alessandro Rinaldo. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1917--1961.Abstract: The problem of univariate mean change point detection and localization based on a sequence of $n$ independent observations with piecewise constant means has been intensively studied for more than half century, and serves as a blueprint for change point problems in more complex settings. We provide a complete characterization of this classical problem in a general framework in which the upper bound $sigma ^{2}$ on the noise variance, the minimal spacing $Delta $ between two consecutive change points and the minimal magnitude $kappa $ of the changes, are allowed to vary with $n$. We first show that consistent localization of the change points is impossible in the low signal-to-noise ratio regime $frac{kappa sqrt{Delta }}{sigma }preceq sqrt{log (n)}$. In contrast, when $frac{kappa sqrt{Delta }}{sigma }$ diverges with $n$ at the rate of at least $sqrt{log (n)}$, we demonstrate that two computationally-efficient change point estimators, one based on the solution to an $ell _{0}$-penalized least squares problem and the other on the popular wild binary segmentation algorithm, are both consistent and achieve a localization rate of the order $frac{sigma ^{2}}{kappa ^{2}}log (n)$. We further show that such rate is minimax optimal, up to a $log (n)$ term. Full Article
ria Bayesian variance estimation in the Gaussian sequence model with partial information on the means By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 22:02 EDT Gianluca Finocchio, Johannes Schmidt-Hieber. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 239--271.Abstract: Consider the Gaussian sequence model under the additional assumption that a fixed fraction of the means is known. We study the problem of variance estimation from a frequentist Bayesian perspective. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for $sigma^{2}$ is biased and inconsistent. This raises the question whether the posterior is able to correct the MLE in this case. By developing a new proving strategy that uses refined properties of the posterior distribution, we find that the marginal posterior is inconsistent for any i.i.d. prior on the mean parameters. In particular, no assumption on the decay of the prior needs to be imposed. Surprisingly, we also find that consistency can be retained for a hierarchical prior based on Gaussian mixtures. In this case we also establish a limiting shape result and determine the limit distribution. In contrast to the classical Bernstein-von Mises theorem, the limit is non-Gaussian. We show that the Bayesian analysis leads to new statistical estimators outperforming the correctly calibrated MLE in a numerical simulation study. Full Article
ria Bias correction in conditional multivariate extremes By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 22 Apr 2020 04:02 EDT Mikael Escobar-Bach, Yuri Goegebeur, Armelle Guillou. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1773--1795.Abstract: We consider bias-corrected estimation of the stable tail dependence function in the regression context. To this aim, we first estimate the bias of a smoothed estimator of the stable tail dependence function, and then we subtract it from the estimator. The weak convergence, as a stochastic process, of the resulting asymptotically unbiased estimator of the conditional stable tail dependence function, correctly normalized, is established under mild assumptions, the covariate argument being fixed. The finite sample behaviour of our asymptotically unbiased estimator is then illustrated on a simulation study and compared to two alternatives, which are not bias corrected. Finally, our methodology is applied to a dataset of air pollution measurements. Full Article
ria A fast and consistent variable selection method for high-dimensional multivariate linear regression with a large number of explanatory variables By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Fri, 27 Mar 2020 22:00 EDT Ryoya Oda, Hirokazu Yanagihara. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1386--1412.Abstract: We put forward a variable selection method for selecting explanatory variables in a normality-assumed multivariate linear regression. It is cumbersome to calculate variable selection criteria for all subsets of explanatory variables when the number of explanatory variables is large. Therefore, we propose a fast and consistent variable selection method based on a generalized $C_{p}$ criterion. The consistency of the method is provided by a high-dimensional asymptotic framework such that the sample size and the sum of the dimensions of response vectors and explanatory vectors divided by the sample size tend to infinity and some positive constant which are less than one, respectively. Through numerical simulations, it is shown that the proposed method has a high probability of selecting the true subset of explanatory variables and is fast under a moderate sample size even when the number of dimensions is large. Full Article
ria Differential network inference via the fused D-trace loss with cross variables By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 24 Mar 2020 22:01 EDT Yichong Wu, Tiejun Li, Xiaoping Liu, Luonan Chen. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1269--1301.Abstract: Detecting the change of biological interaction networks is of great importance in biological and medical research. We proposed a simple loss function, named as CrossFDTL, to identify the network change or differential network by estimating the difference between two precision matrices under Gaussian assumption. The CrossFDTL is a natural fusion of the D-trace loss for the considered two networks by imposing the $ell _{1}$ penalty to the differential matrix to ensure sparsity. The key point of our method is to utilize the cross variables, which correspond to the sum and difference of two precision matrices instead of using their original forms. Moreover, we developed an efficient minimization algorithm for the proposed loss function and further rigorously proved its convergence. Numerical results showed that our method outperforms the existing methods in both accuracy and convergence speed for the simulated and real data. Full Article
ria Conditional density estimation with covariate measurement error By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 19 Feb 2020 22:06 EST Xianzheng Huang, Haiming Zhou. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 970--1023.Abstract: We consider estimating the density of a response conditioning on an error-prone covariate. Motivated by two existing kernel density estimators in the absence of covariate measurement error, we propose a method to correct the existing estimators for measurement error. Asymptotic properties of the resultant estimators under different types of measurement error distributions are derived. Moreover, we adjust bandwidths readily available from existing bandwidth selection methods developed for error-free data to obtain bandwidths for the new estimators. Extensive simulation studies are carried out to compare the proposed estimators with naive estimators that ignore measurement error, which also provide empirical evidence for the effectiveness of the proposed bandwidth selection methods. A real-life data example is used to illustrate implementation of these methods under practical scenarios. An R package, lpme, is developed for implementing all considered methods, which we demonstrate via an R code example in Appendix B.2. Full Article
ria Reduction problems and deformation approaches to nonstationary covariance functions over spheres By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Feb 2020 22:03 EST Emilio Porcu, Rachid Senoussi, Enner Mendoza, Moreno Bevilacqua. Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 890--916.Abstract: The paper considers reduction problems and deformation approaches for nonstationary covariance functions on the $(d-1)$-dimensional spheres, $mathbb{S}^{d-1}$, embedded in the $d$-dimensional Euclidean space. Given a covariance function $C$ on $mathbb{S}^{d-1}$, we chase a pair $(R,Psi)$, for a function $R:[-1,+1] o mathbb{R}$ and a smooth bijection $Psi$, such that $C$ can be reduced to a geodesically isotropic one: $C(mathbf{x},mathbf{y})=R(langle Psi (mathbf{x}),Psi (mathbf{y}) angle )$, with $langle cdot ,cdot angle $ denoting the dot product. The problem finds motivation in recent statistical literature devoted to the analysis of global phenomena, defined typically over the sphere of $mathbb{R}^{3}$. The application domains considered in the manuscript makes the problem mathematically challenging. We show the uniqueness of the representation in the reduction problem. Then, under some regularity assumptions, we provide an inversion formula to recover the bijection $Psi$, when it exists, for a given $C$. We also give sufficient conditions for reducibility. Full Article
ria Universal Latent Space Model Fitting for Large Networks with Edge Covariates By Published On :: 2020 Latent space models are effective tools for statistical modeling and visualization of network data. Due to their close connection to generalized linear models, it is also natural to incorporate covariate information in them. The current paper presents two universal fitting algorithms for networks with edge covariates: one based on nuclear norm penalization and the other based on projected gradient descent. Both algorithms are motivated by maximizing the likelihood function for an existing class of inner-product models, and we establish their statistical rates of convergence for these models. In addition, the theory informs us that both methods work simultaneously for a wide range of different latent space models that allow latent positions to affect edge formation in flexible ways, such as distance models. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the methods is demonstrated on a number of real world network data sets for different statistical tasks, including community detection with and without edge covariates, and network assisted learning. Full Article
ria Targeted Fused Ridge Estimation of Inverse Covariance Matrices from Multiple High-Dimensional Data Classes By Published On :: 2020 We consider the problem of jointly estimating multiple inverse covariance matrices from high-dimensional data consisting of distinct classes. An $ell_2$-penalized maximum likelihood approach is employed. The suggested approach is flexible and generic, incorporating several other $ell_2$-penalized estimators as special cases. In addition, the approach allows specification of target matrices through which prior knowledge may be incorporated and which can stabilize the estimation procedure in high-dimensional settings. The result is a targeted fused ridge estimator that is of use when the precision matrices of the constituent classes are believed to chiefly share the same structure while potentially differing in a number of locations of interest. It has many applications in (multi)factorial study designs. We focus on the graphical interpretation of precision matrices with the proposed estimator then serving as a basis for integrative or meta-analytic Gaussian graphical modeling. Situations are considered in which the classes are defined by data sets and subtypes of diseases. The performance of the proposed estimator in the graphical modeling setting is assessed through extensive simulation experiments. Its practical usability is illustrated by the differential network modeling of 12 large-scale gene expression data sets of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma subtypes. The estimator and its related procedures are incorporated into the R-package rags2ridges. Full Article
ria Learning Linear Non-Gaussian Causal Models in the Presence of Latent Variables By Published On :: 2020 We consider the problem of learning causal models from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models with latent variables. Without considering the effect of latent variables, the inferred causal relationships among the observed variables are often wrong. Under faithfulness assumption, we propose a method to check whether there exists a causal path between any two observed variables. From this information, we can obtain the causal order among the observed variables. The next question is whether the causal effects can be uniquely identified as well. We show that causal effects among observed variables cannot be identified uniquely under mere assumptions of faithfulness and non-Gaussianity of exogenous noises. However, we are able to propose an efficient method that identifies the set of all possible causal effects that are compatible with the observational data. We present additional structural conditions on the causal graph under which causal effects among observed variables can be determined uniquely. Furthermore, we provide necessary and sufficient graphical conditions for unique identification of the number of variables in the system. Experiments on synthetic data and real-world data show the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm for learning causal models. Full Article
ria Switching Regression Models and Causal Inference in the Presence of Discrete Latent Variables By Published On :: 2020 Given a response $Y$ and a vector $X = (X^1, dots, X^d)$ of $d$ predictors, we investigate the problem of inferring direct causes of $Y$ among the vector $X$. Models for $Y$ that use all of its causal covariates as predictors enjoy the property of being invariant across different environments or interventional settings. Given data from such environments, this property has been exploited for causal discovery. Here, we extend this inference principle to situations in which some (discrete-valued) direct causes of $ Y $ are unobserved. Such cases naturally give rise to switching regression models. We provide sufficient conditions for the existence, consistency and asymptotic normality of the MLE in linear switching regression models with Gaussian noise, and construct a test for the equality of such models. These results allow us to prove that the proposed causal discovery method obtains asymptotic false discovery control under mild conditions. We provide an algorithm, make available code, and test our method on simulated data. It is robust against model violations and outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. We further apply our method to a real data set, where we show that it does not only output causal predictors, but also a process-based clustering of data points, which could be of additional interest to practitioners. Full Article
ria Greedy Attack and Gumbel Attack: Generating Adversarial Examples for Discrete Data By Published On :: 2020 We present a probabilistic framework for studying adversarial attacks on discrete data. Based on this framework, we derive a perturbation-based method, Greedy Attack, and a scalable learning-based method, Gumbel Attack, that illustrate various tradeoffs in the design of attacks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods using both quantitative metrics and human evaluation on various state-of-the-art models for text classification, including a word-based CNN, a character-based CNN and an LSTM. As an example of our results, we show that the accuracy of character-based convolutional networks drops to the level of random selection by modifying only five characters through Greedy Attack. Full Article
ria Sparse and low-rank multivariate Hawkes processes By Published On :: 2020 We consider the problem of unveiling the implicit network structure of node interactions (such as user interactions in a social network), based only on high-frequency timestamps. Our inference is based on the minimization of the least-squares loss associated with a multivariate Hawkes model, penalized by $ell_1$ and trace norm of the interaction tensor. We provide a first theoretical analysis for this problem, that includes sparsity and low-rank inducing penalizations. This result involves a new data-driven concentration inequality for matrix martingales in continuous time with observable variance, which is a result of independent interest and a broad range of possible applications since it extends to matrix martingales former results restricted to the scalar case. A consequence of our analysis is the construction of sharply tuned $ell_1$ and trace-norm penalizations, that leads to a data-driven scaling of the variability of information available for each users. Numerical experiments illustrate the significant improvements achieved by the use of such data-driven penalizations. Full Article
ria Identifiability of Additive Noise Models Using Conditional Variances By Published On :: 2020 This paper considers a new identifiability condition for additive noise models (ANMs) in which each variable is determined by an arbitrary Borel measurable function of its parents plus an independent error. It has been shown that ANMs are fully recoverable under some identifiability conditions, such as when all error variances are equal. However, this identifiable condition could be restrictive, and hence, this paper focuses on a relaxed identifiability condition that involves not only error variances, but also the influence of parents. This new class of identifiable ANMs does not put any constraints on the form of dependencies, or distributions of errors, and allows different error variances. It further provides a statistically consistent and computationally feasible structure learning algorithm for the identifiable ANMs based on the new identifiability condition. The proposed algorithm assumes that all relevant variables are observed, while it does not assume faithfulness or a sparse graph. Demonstrated through extensive simulated and real multivariate data is that the proposed algorithm successfully recovers directed acyclic graphs. Full Article
ria Multi-Player Bandits: The Adversarial Case By Published On :: 2020 We consider a setting where multiple players sequentially choose among a common set of actions (arms). Motivated by an application to cognitive radio networks, we assume that players incur a loss upon colliding, and that communication between players is not possible. Existing approaches assume that the system is stationary. Yet this assumption is often violated in practice, e.g., due to signal strength fluctuations. In this work, we design the first multi-player Bandit algorithm that provably works in arbitrarily changing environments, where the losses of the arms may even be chosen by an adversary. This resolves an open problem posed by Rosenski et al. (2016). Full Article
ria Stein characterizations for linear combinations of gamma random variables By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 04:00 EDT Benjamin Arras, Ehsan Azmoodeh, Guillaume Poly, Yvik Swan. Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 2, 394--413.Abstract: In this paper we propose a new, simple and explicit mechanism allowing to derive Stein operators for random variables whose characteristic function satisfies a simple ODE. We apply this to study random variables which can be represented as linear combinations of (not necessarily independent) gamma distributed random variables. The connection with Malliavin calculus for random variables in the second Wiener chaos is detailed. An application to McKay Type I random variables is also outlined. Full Article
ria A message from the editorial board By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 04:00 EDT Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 2, 203--203. Full Article
ria Multivariate normal approximation of the maximum likelihood estimator via the delta method By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 03 Feb 2020 04:00 EST Andreas Anastasiou, Robert E. Gaunt. Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 1, 136--149.Abstract: We use the delta method and Stein’s method to derive, under regularity conditions, explicit upper bounds for the distributional distance between the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a $d$-dimensional parameter and its asymptotic multivariate normal distribution. Our bounds apply in situations in which the MLE can be written as a function of a sum of i.i.d. $t$-dimensional random vectors. We apply our general bound to establish a bound for the multivariate normal approximation of the MLE of the normal distribution with unknown mean and variance. Full Article
ria A message from the editorial board By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 03 Feb 2020 04:00 EST Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 1, 1--1. Full Article
ria Option pricing with bivariate risk-neutral density via copula and heteroscedastic model: A Bayesian approach By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 26 Aug 2019 04:00 EDT Lucas Pereira Lopes, Vicente Garibay Cancho, Francisco Louzada. Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 4, 801--825.Abstract: Multivariate options are adequate tools for multi-asset risk management. The pricing models derived from the pioneer Black and Scholes method under the multivariate case consider that the asset-object prices follow a Brownian geometric motion. However, the construction of such methods imposes some unrealistic constraints on the process of fair option calculation, such as constant volatility over the maturity time and linear correlation between the assets. Therefore, this paper aims to price and analyze the fair price behavior of the call-on-max (bivariate) option considering marginal heteroscedastic models with dependence structure modeled via copulas. Concerning inference, we adopt a Bayesian perspective and computationally intensive methods based on Monte Carlo simulations via Markov Chain (MCMC). A simulation study examines the bias, and the root mean squared errors of the posterior means for the parameters. Real stocks prices of Brazilian banks illustrate the approach. For the proposed method is verified the effects of strike and dependence structure on the fair price of the option. The results show that the prices obtained by our heteroscedastic model approach and copulas differ substantially from the prices obtained by the model derived from Black and Scholes. Empirical results are presented to argue the advantages of our strategy. Full Article
ria Bayesian modelling of the abilities in dichotomous IRT models via regression with missing values in the covariates By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 26 Aug 2019 04:00 EDT Flávio B. Gonçalves, Bárbara C. C. Dias. Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 4, 782--800.Abstract: Educational assessment usually considers a contextual questionnaire to extract relevant information from the applicants. This may include items related to socio-economical profile as well as items to extract other characteristics potentially related to applicant’s performance in the test. A careful analysis of the questionnaires jointly with the test’s results may evidence important relations between profiles and test performance. The most coherent way to perform this task in a statistical context is to use the information from the questionnaire to help explain the variability of the abilities in a joint model-based approach. Nevertheless, the responses to the questionnaire typically present missing values which, in some cases, may be missing not at random. This paper proposes a statistical methodology to model the abilities in dichotomous IRT models using the information of the contextual questionnaires via linear regression. The proposed methodology models the missing data jointly with the all the observed data, which allows for the estimation of the former. The missing data modelling is flexible enough to allow the specification of missing not at random structures. Furthermore, even if those structures are not assumed a priori, they can be estimated from the posterior results when assuming missing (completely) at random structures a priori. Statistical inference is performed under the Bayesian paradigm via an efficient MCMC algorithm. Simulated and real examples are presented to investigate the efficiency and applicability of the proposed methodology. Full Article
ria Stochastic monotonicity from an Eulerian viewpoint By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 10 Jun 2019 04:04 EDT Davide Gabrielli, Ida Germana Minelli. Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 3, 558--585.Abstract: Stochastic monotonicity is a well-known partial order relation between probability measures defined on the same partially ordered set. Strassen theorem establishes equivalence between stochastic monotonicity and the existence of a coupling compatible with respect to the partial order. We consider the case of a countable set and introduce the class of finitely decomposable flows on a directed acyclic graph associated to the partial order. We show that a probability measure stochastically dominates another probability measure if and only if there exists a finitely decomposable flow having divergence given by the difference of the two measures. We illustrate the result with some examples. Full Article
ria Fractional backward stochastic variational inequalities with non-Lipschitz coefficient By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 10 Jun 2019 04:04 EDT Katarzyna Jańczak-Borkowska. Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 3, 480--497.Abstract: We prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution of backward stochastic variational inequalities with respect to fractional Brownian motion and with non-Lipschitz coefficient. We assume that $H>1/2$. Full Article
ria The coreset variational Bayes (CVB) algorithm for mixture analysis By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 04 Mar 2019 04:00 EST Qianying Liu, Clare A. McGrory, Peter W. J. Baxter. Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 2, 267--279.Abstract: The pressing need for improved methods for analysing and coping with big data has opened up a new area of research for statisticians. Image analysis is an area where there is typically a very large number of data points to be processed per image, and often multiple images are captured over time. These issues make it challenging to design methodology that is reliable and yet still efficient enough to be of practical use. One promising emerging approach for this problem is to reduce the amount of data that actually has to be processed by extracting what we call coresets from the full dataset; analysis is then based on the coreset rather than the whole dataset. Coresets are representative subsamples of data that are carefully selected via an adaptive sampling approach. We propose a new approach called coreset variational Bayes (CVB) for mixture modelling; this is an algorithm which can perform a variational Bayes analysis of a dataset based on just an extracted coreset of the data. We apply our algorithm to weed image analysis. Full Article
ria Nights below Foord Street : literature and popular culture in postindustrial Nova Scotia By dal.novanet.ca Published On :: Fri, 1 May 2020 19:34:09 -0300 Author: Thompson, Peter, 1981- author.Callnumber: PS 8131 N6 T56 2019ISBN: 0773559345 Full Article
ria Flexible, boundary adapted, nonparametric methods for the estimation of univariate piecewise-smooth functions By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 04 Feb 2020 04:00 EST Umberto Amato, Anestis Antoniadis, Italia De Feis. Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 14, 32--70.Abstract: We present and compare some nonparametric estimation methods (wavelet and/or spline-based) designed to recover a one-dimensional piecewise-smooth regression function in both a fixed equidistant or not equidistant design regression model and a random design model. Wavelet methods are known to be very competitive in terms of denoising and compression, due to the simultaneous localization property of a function in time and frequency. However, boundary assumptions, such as periodicity or symmetry, generate bias and artificial wiggles which degrade overall accuracy. Simple methods have been proposed in the literature for reducing the bias at the boundaries. We introduce new ones based on adaptive combinations of two estimators. The underlying idea is to combine a highly accurate method for non-regular functions, e.g., wavelets, with one well behaved at boundaries, e.g., Splines or Local Polynomial. We provide some asymptotic optimal results supporting our approach. All the methods can handle data with a random design. We also sketch some generalization to the multidimensional setting. To study the performance of the proposed approaches we have conducted an extensive set of simulations on synthetic data. An interesting regression analysis of two real data applications using these procedures unambiguously demonstrates their effectiveness. Full Article
ria Pitfalls of significance testing and $p$-value variability: An econometrics perspective By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 03 Oct 2018 22:00 EDT Norbert Hirschauer, Sven Grüner, Oliver Mußhoff, Claudia Becker. Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 12, 136--172.Abstract: Data on how many scientific findings are reproducible are generally bleak and a wealth of papers have warned against misuses of the $p$-value and resulting false findings in recent years. This paper discusses the question of what we can(not) learn from the $p$-value, which is still widely considered as the gold standard of statistical validity. We aim to provide a non-technical and easily accessible resource for statistical practitioners who wish to spot and avoid misinterpretations and misuses of statistical significance tests. For this purpose, we first classify and describe the most widely discussed (“classical”) pitfalls of significance testing, and review published work on these misuses with a focus on regression-based “confirmatory” study. This includes a description of the single-study bias and a simulation-based illustration of how proper meta-analysis compares to misleading significance counts (“vote counting”). Going beyond the classical pitfalls, we also use simulation to provide intuition that relying on the statistical estimate “$p$-value” as a measure of evidence without considering its sample-to-sample variability falls short of the mark even within an otherwise appropriate interpretation. We conclude with a discussion of the exigencies of informed approaches to statistical inference and corresponding institutional reforms. Full Article
ria A review of dynamic network models with latent variables By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Mon, 03 Sep 2018 04:01 EDT Bomin Kim, Kevin H. Lee, Lingzhou Xue, Xiaoyue Niu. Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 12, 105--135.Abstract: We present a selective review of statistical modeling of dynamic networks. We focus on models with latent variables, specifically, the latent space models and the latent class models (or stochastic blockmodels), which investigate both the observed features and the unobserved structure of networks. We begin with an overview of the static models, and then we introduce the dynamic extensions. For each dynamic model, we also discuss its applications that have been studied in the literature, with the data source listed in Appendix. Based on the review, we summarize a list of open problems and challenges in dynamic network modeling with latent variables. Full Article
ria Variable selection methods for model-based clustering By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Thu, 26 Apr 2018 04:00 EDT Michael Fop, Thomas Brendan Murphy. Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 12, 18--65.Abstract: Model-based clustering is a popular approach for clustering multivariate data which has seen applications in numerous fields. Nowadays, high-dimensional data are more and more common and the model-based clustering approach has adapted to deal with the increasing dimensionality. In particular, the development of variable selection techniques has received a lot of attention and research effort in recent years. Even for small size problems, variable selection has been advocated to facilitate the interpretation of the clustering results. This review provides a summary of the methods developed for variable selection in model-based clustering. Existing R packages implementing the different methods are indicated and illustrated in application to two data analysis examples. Full Article
ria Measuring multivariate association and beyond By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 16 Nov 2016 22:00 EST Julie Josse, Susan Holmes. Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 10, 132--167.Abstract: Simple correlation coefficients between two variables have been generalized to measure association between two matrices in many ways. Coefficients such as the RV coefficient, the distance covariance (dCov) coefficient and kernel based coefficients are being used by different research communities. Scientists use these coefficients to test whether two random vectors are linked. Once it has been ascertained that there is such association through testing, then a next step, often ignored, is to explore and uncover the association’s underlying patterns. This article provides a survey of various measures of dependence between random vectors and tests of independence and emphasizes the connections and differences between the various approaches. After providing definitions of the coefficients and associated tests, we present the recent improvements that enhance their statistical properties and ease of interpretation. We summarize multi-table approaches and provide scenarii where the indices can provide useful summaries of heterogeneous multi-block data. We illustrate these different strategies on several examples of real data and suggest directions for future research. Full Article
ria $M$-functionals of multivariate scatter By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Fri, 20 Mar 2015 09:11 EDT Lutz Dümbgen, Markus Pauly, Thomas Schweizer. Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 9, 32--105.Abstract: This survey provides a self-contained account of $M$-estimation of multivariate scatter. In particular, we present new proofs for existence of the underlying $M$-functionals and discuss their weak continuity and differentiability. This is done in a rather general framework with matrix-valued random variables. By doing so we reveal a connection between Tyler’s (1987a) $M$-functional of scatter and the estimation of proportional covariance matrices. Moreover, this general framework allows us to treat a new class of scatter estimators, based on symmetrizations of arbitrary order. Finally these results are applied to $M$-estimation of multivariate location and scatter via multivariate $t$-distributions. Full Article
ria Semi-parametric estimation for conditional independence multivariate finite mixture models By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Fri, 06 Feb 2015 08:39 EST Didier Chauveau, David R. Hunter, Michael Levine. Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 9, 1--31.Abstract: The conditional independence assumption for nonparametric multivariate finite mixture models, a weaker form of the well-known conditional independence assumption for random effects models for longitudinal data, is the subject of an increasing number of theoretical and algorithmic developments in the statistical literature. After presenting a survey of this literature, including an in-depth discussion of the all-important identifiability results, this article describes and extends an algorithm for estimation of the parameters in these models. The algorithm works for any number of components in three or more dimensions. It possesses a descent property and can be easily adapted to situations where the data are grouped in blocks of conditionally independent variables. We discuss how to adapt this algorithm to various location-scale models that link component densities, and we even adapt it to a particular class of univariate mixture problems in which the components are assumed symmetric. We give a bandwidth selection procedure for our algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm using a simulation study and two psychometric datasets. Full Article