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EU makes second donation of medical supplies to Jamaica

(CMC): The European Union (EU) will be making a second donation of medical supplies and equipment to Jamaica in support of the country’s efforts to tackle COVID-19, the Head of the EU Delegation to Jamaica, Ambassador Malgorzata Wasilewska,...




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The Changing Nature of Russia’s Military Strategy and Its Tactical Application

Invitation Only Research Event

12 November 2019 - 4:00pm to 5:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Oscar Jonsson, Director, Stockholm Free World Forum (Frivärld)
Mathieu Boulègue, Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Chair: ​Alice Billon-Galland, Research Associate, Europe Programme, Chatham House

Russia’s military strategy is increasingly blurring the boundaries between war and peace. As the nature of warfare changes, the Kremlin is adapting its strategies to pursue conflict, especially through non-military means - below the threshold of armed violence. 

Russian military tactics are often mistaken for strategy in the West. Oscar Jonson, author of The Russian Understanding of War, will talk through this debate and explore how the Russian leadership now understands military strategy in the context of modern warfare. Mathieu Boulègue will address the more operational aspects of contemporary warfare for Russia, notably grey zone operations. 

Department/project

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Political Will Was Not Enough for Justice Reform in Moldova

27 November 2019

Cristina Gherasimov

Former Academy Associate, Russia and Eurasia Programme
The pro-reform Sandu government had the will to dismantle oligarchic power structures, but was taken down by limited political experience.

2019-11-26-Sandu.jpg

Maia Sandu in Germany in July. Photo: Getty Images.

The lack of political will to carry out rule of law reforms is frequently the reason why reforms are not fully implemented. The case of Moldova proves that in societies where strong vested interests still persist, political savviness is equally as important as political will.

Old and new political power brokers in Moldova struck a fragile pact in June to oust Vladimir Plahotniuc. Plahotniuc had built a network of corruption and patronage with the help of the Democratic Party, which he treated as a personal vehicle and which allowed him and a small economic elite circle to enrich themselves off of government institutions and state-owned enterprises, to the detriment of Moldovan citizens and the health of their political process.

Maia Sandu, co-leader of the pro-reform ACUM electoral bloc, then formed a technocratic government with a remit to implement Moldova’s lagging reform agenda. Though made up of ministers with the integrity and political will to implement difficult transformational reforms, its biggest weakness was its coalition partner – the pro-Russian Socialists’ Party and its informal leader, Igor Dodon, the president of Moldova.

Now the Socialists – threatened by how key reforms to the justice system would impact their interests – have joined forces with Plahotniuc’s former allies, the Democratic Party, to oust ACUM, exploiting the party’s lack of political savviness. 

Reform interrupted

It was always clear the coalition would be short-lived. President Dodon and the co-ruling Socialists joined to buy themselves time, with the hope that they could restrict the most far-reaching reforms and tie the hands of ACUM ministers. In less than five months, however, the Sandu government initiated key reforms in the judicial system, aimed at dismantling Plahotniuc’s networks of patronage but also impacting the Socialists, who to a large degree also profited from the previous status quo.

The red line came over a last-minute change in the selection process of the prosecutor general proposed by Sandu on 6 November, which the Socialists claimed was unconstitutional and gave them the justification to put forward a motion of no confidence in the Sandu government. This was conveniently supported by the Democratic Party, who appeared threatened by an independent prosecutor’s office and saw an opportunity to return to power.

Thus, the political will to reform proved insufficient in the absence of a clear strategy on how to address the concerns of the old regime that they would be prosecuted and their vested interests threatened. Here, ACUM’s lack of political experience let them down. With their hands tied from the beginning in a fragile coalition with the Socialists, ACUM were unable to prevent sabotage from within state institutions and their own coalition, and could not find consensus to proceed with more radical methods to tackle corruption.

Less than two days after the Sandu government was out, a new government was sworn in on 14 November. Prime Minister Ion Chicu was an adviser to President Dodon before taking office and former minister of finance under the Plahotniuc-backed government of Pavel Filip, as part of a cabinet of ministers consisting largely of other presidential advisers and former high-level bureaucrats and ministers from the Plahotniuc era. 

The new government

A top priority for the Chicu government is to convince the international community that it is independent from President Dodon, and that its ‘technocrats’ will keep the course of reforms of the Sandu government. This is critical to preserving the financial assistance of Western partners, which the Moldovan government heavily relies on, particularly with a presidential election campaign next year, when they will likely want to create fiscal space for various giveaways to voters.

But within its first week in office, Chicu appears incapable of walking this line. Reverting to the initially proposed pre-selection process of prosecutor general signals that the post could be filled by a loyal appointee of President Dodon. Moreover, Chicu’s first visit abroad was to Russia, allegedly a major financial contributor of the Socialists’ Party. With the Socialists now holding the presidency, government, Chisinau mayoralty, and the parliament speaker’s seat, the danger of an increased Russian influence on key political decisions is very real.

A government steered by President Dodon risks bringing Moldova back to where it was before June, with a political elite mimicking reforms while misusing power for private gains. The biggest danger is that instead of continuing the reform process to bring Moldova back on its European integration path, the new government may focus on strengthening the old patronage system, this time with President Dodon at the top of the pyramid.

Lessons

This new minority government, supported by the Democrats, is a more natural one for President Dodon and therefore has more chances to survive, at least until presidential elections in autumn of 2020. Both the Socialists and the Democrats will likely seek to use this time to rebuild their own methods of capturing state resources. But with the Socialists relying on the Democrats’ votes in parliament, this is a recipe for further political instability.

Similar to Moldova, several other states across the post-Soviet space such as Ukraine and Armenia have had new political forces come to power with the political will and mandate to carry out difficult reforms to strengthen rule of law and fight systemic corruption in their countries. What they all have in common is the lack of political experience of how to create change, while old elites, used to thinking on their feet to defend their vested interests, retain their connections and economic and political influence.

Moldova is a good example of why political will needs to be backed up by clear strategy on how to deal with threatened vested interests in order for new political forces to be able to maintain themselves in power and reforms to be sustainable. When the chance comes again for fresh leaders to come to power, it is importantthey are politically prepared to use it swiftly and wisely.




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The New Orthodox Church of Ukraine: Opportunities and Challenges of Canonical Independence

Invitation Only Research Event

22 January 2020 - 10:00am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Archbishop Yevstraty (Zoria) of Chernihiv, Deputy Head of Department for External Church Relations, Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Orthodox Church of Ukraine)

In January 2019, the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople granted the Orthodox Church of Ukraine a self-governing status, ending its centuries-long subordination to the Moscow Patriarchate. The Russian Orthodox Church condemned this decision and severed its links with the Constantinople Patriarchate.

More than 500 parishes have left the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to join the newly independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).

What challenges is the new church facing? Has its independence been recognized by other Orthodox churches? How is it affected by the schism between Constantinople and Moscow? What are UOC’s priorities in relations with the West and with the Orthodox world?

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Mainstreaming the environment into post-war recovery: the case for 'ecological development'

7 September 2012 , Volume 88, Number 5

Richard Milburn




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Mark Wignal | A case for political agility, Dr Phillips

Many of us may feel right at this minute that in the same way the 19th-century American poet Edgar Allan Poe painted it in his tortured poem, The Conqueror Worm, we are sitting in a theatre, watching a play of hopes and fears “While the orchestra...




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Chemical leak at LG plant in India kills 11, about 1,000 injured

HYDERABAD, India (AP) — A gas leak at a chemical factory owned by a South Korean company in southern India early Thursday left at least 11 people dead and about 1,000 struggling to breathe. The chemical styrene, used to make plastic and...




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Musical (operating) theatre

One hundred years ago, Pennsylvanian surgeon Evan Kane penned a brief letter to JAMA in which he declared himself a rigorous proponent of the “benefic [sic] effects of the phonograph within the operating room.” Now David Bosenquet, a surgeon from University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff has written a Christmas editorial about the evidence for the...




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Time to target older women for cervical cancer screening?

Cervical screening programmes in many countries stop at around the age of 65 and much of the focus is often on younger women. However, comparatively little attention has been given to older women despite the fact that they account for about a fifth of cases each year and half of deaths. In this podcast Susan Sherman, a senior lecturer in...




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Medical error—the third leading cause of death in the US

Medical error is not included on death certificates or in rankings of cause of death. Martin Makary, professor of surgery at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, joins us to explain why we don't measure medical error, and why it is so important that we start. Read the full analysis: http://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i2139




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Not just our ethical credibility as a profession, but our shared humanity

"I say to all Australian doctors - young, old, the political and the apolitical - that on this depends not just our ethical credibility as a profession, but our shared humanity. " Following the leaked emails published in The Guardian newspaper, alleging abuse of asylum seekers detained by the Australian government on the Pacific island of Nauru,...




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Should all American doctors be using electronic medical records?

Evidence shows using electronic health records can increase efficiency, and reduce preventable medical errors - but only if they are used properly. However, in the US, the president of the American Medical Association calls them almost unusable. In this debate, Richard Hurley is joined by George Gellert, Regional Medical Informatics Officer at...




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Helping patients with medically unexplained symptoms

Persistent physical symptoms are common and include those symptoms that last at least three months and are insufficiently explained by a medical condition after adequate examination and investigation. Observational studies in primary care report that women, especially those aged 35-45 years, more commonly present with these symptoms. In this...




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Assessing and treating an electrical injury

Thankfully, electrical injuries are relatively uncommon - but that means that lack of evidence regarding the management of patients who have been electrocuted, which can cause concern for clinicians when these patients present. In this podcast, Cath Brizzel, clinical editor for The BMJ, is joined by one of the authors of a clinical update on the...




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Mike Richards has "never been politically interfered with"

Mike Richards is well known in the UK - former Cancer Tzar, he now heads up the Care Quality Commission - regulator of all health and social care services, and therefore the body responsible for inspecting hospitals and GP practices. In this interview, BMJ’s head of news and views, Rebecca Coombes went to the CQC’s headquarters in London, and...




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Preventing Overdiagnosis 2017 - Stacy Carter on the culture of overmedicalisation

In this interview from Preventing Overdiagnosis 2017 (preventingoverdiagnosis.net) Stacy Carter, associate professor at Sydney Health Ethics - and the author of a recently written BMJ essay the ethical aspects of overdiagnosis, joins us to talk about how the cultural context of medicine seeps into our decision making processes and affects how...




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Manflu - are men immunologically inferior?

Manflu, the phenomenon that men experience the symptoms of viral illness more than woman, is usually used with derision - but a new review, published in the Christmas edition, is asking - is there a plausible biological basis for this sex difference? Kyle Sue is a clinical assistant professor in family medicine at Memorial University of...




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Defending evidence informed policy making from ideological attack

If you’re of a scientific persuasion, watching policy debates around Brexit, or climate change, or drug prohibition are likely to cause feelings of intense frustration about the dearth of evidence in those discussions. In this podcast we're joined by Chris Bonell, professor of public health sociology - in this podcast he airs those frustrations,...




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Vinay Prasad - there is overdiagnosis in clinical trials

We want clinical trials to be thorough - but Vinay Prasad, assistant professor of medicine at Oregon Health Science University, argues that the problem of overdiagnosis may be as prevalent, in the way we measure disease in our research, as our practice. In this podcast he joins us to discuss the problem, and why he thinks what qualifies as...




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Talk Evidence - Z drugs, subclinical hypothyroidism and Drazen's dozen

This week on the podcast, (2.02) a listener asks, when we suggest something to stop, should we suggest an alternative instead? (8.24) Helen tells us to stop putting people on treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism, but what does that mean for people who are already receiving thyroxine? (20.55) Carl has a black box warning about z drugs, and...




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Talk Evidence - Tramadol, medical harm, and alexa

Welcome back to Talk Evidence - where Helen Macdonald and Carl Heneghan take you through what's happening in the world of Evidence. This month we'll be discussing tramadol being prescripted postoperatively, and a new EBM verdict says that should change(1.36). How much preventable harm does healthcare causes (11.20. A canadian project to help...




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Physical activity and mortality - "The least active quartile did less than 5 minute per day"

We know that exercise is good for you - the WHO recommends at least 150 minutes of moderate intensity or 75 minutes of vigorous intensity aerobic physical activity each week. That recommendation is built on evidence that relied on self reporting that may underestimate the amount of lower intensity exercise those people were doing, and at the...




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How Blockchain could improve clinical trial transparency

Blockchain is the digital technology that underpins cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, and has been proposed as the digital panacea of our times. But Leeza Osipenko, from the London School of Economics, has thought about how it could actually be used in clinical trials, and what else would need to change in our regulatory environment to make that...




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High Incidence of Metabolically Active Brown Adipose Tissue in Healthy Adult Humans: Effects of Cold Exposure and Adiposity

Masayuki Saito
Jul 1, 2009; 58:1526-1531
Metabolism




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Lipotoxicity in the Pathogenesis of Obesity-Dependent NIDDM: Genetic and Clinical Implications

Roger H Unger
Aug 1, 1995; 44:863-870
Perspectives in Diabetes




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Preservation of Pancreatic {beta}-Cell Function and Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes by Pharmacological Treatment of Insulin Resistance in High-Risk Hispanic Women

Thomas A. Buchanan
Sep 1, 2002; 51:2796-2803
Pathophysiology




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Clinical and Molecular Prevalence of Lipodystrophy in an Unascertained Large Clinical Care Cohort

Lipodystrophies are a group of disorders characterized by absence or loss of adipose tissue and abnormal fat distribution, commonly accompanied by metabolic dysregulation. Although considered rare disorders, their prevalence in the general population is not well understood. We aimed to evaluate the clinical and genetic prevalence of lipodystrophy disorders in a large clinical care cohort. We interrogated the electronic health record (EHR) information of >1.3 million adults from the Geisinger Health System for lipodystrophy diagnostic codes. We estimate a clinical prevalence of disease of 1 in 20,000 individuals. We performed genetic analyses in individuals with available genomic data to identify variants associated with inherited lipodystrophies and examined their EHR for comorbidities associated with lipodystrophy. We identified 16 individuals carrying the p.R482Q pathogenic variant in LMNA associated with Dunnigan familial partial lipodystrophy. Four had a clinical diagnosis of lipodystrophy, whereas the remaining had no documented clinical diagnosis despite having accompanying metabolic abnormalities. We observed a lipodystrophy-associated variant carrier frequency of 1 in 3,082 individuals in our cohort with substantial burden of metabolic dysregulation. We estimate a genetic prevalence of disease of ~1 in 7,000 in the general population. Partial lipodystrophy is an underdiagnosed condition. and its prevalence, as defined molecularly, is higher than previously reported. Genetically guided stratification of patients with common metabolic disorders, like diabetes and dyslipidemia, is an important step toward precision medicine.




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Comprehensive Glycomic Analysis Reveals That Human Serum Albumin Glycation Specifically Affects the Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy of Different Anticoagulant Drugs in Diabetes

Long-term hyperglycemia in patients with diabetes leads to human serum albumin (HSA) glycation, which may impair HSA function as a transport protein and affect the therapeutic efficacy of anticoagulants in patients with diabetes. In this study, a novel mass spectrometry approach was developed to reveal the differences in the profiles of HSA glycation sites between patients with diabetes and healthy subjects. K199 was the glycation site most significantly changed in patients with diabetes, contributing to different interactions of glycated HSA and normal HSA with two types of anticoagulant drugs, heparin and warfarin. An in vitro experiment showed that the binding affinity to warfarin became stronger when HSA was glycated, while HSA binding to heparin was not significantly influenced by glycation. A pharmacokinetic study showed a decreased level of free warfarin in the plasma of diabetic rats. A preliminary retrospective clinical study also revealed that there was a statistically significant difference in the anticoagulant efficacy between patients with diabetes and patients without diabetes who had been treated with warfarin. Our work suggests that larger studies are needed to provide additional specific guidance for patients with diabetes when they are administered anticoagulant drugs or drugs for treating other chronic diseases.




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Physical activity: a (mobile) call to action




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Obesity: medical leaders call for end to “stigmatising” language




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PI3K{delta} as a Novel Therapeutic Target in Pathological Angiogenesis

Diabetic retinopathy is the most common microvascular complication of diabetes, and in the advanced diabetic retinopathy appear vitreal fibrovascular membranes that consist of a variety of cells, including vascular endothelial cells (ECs). New therapeutic approaches for this diabetic complication are urgently needed. Here, we report that in cultured human retinal microvascular ECs, high glucose induced expression of p110, which was also expressed in ECs of fibrovascular membranes from patients with diabetes. This catalytic subunit of a receptor-regulated PI3K isoform is known to be highly enriched in leukocytes. Using genetic and pharmacological approaches, we show that p110 activity in cultured ECs controls Akt activation, cell proliferation, migration, and tube formation induced by vascular endothelial growth factor, basic fibroblast growth factor, and epidermal growth factor. Using a mouse model of oxygen-induced retinopathy, p110 inactivation was found to attenuate pathological retinal angiogenesis. p110 inhibitors have been approved for use in human B-cell malignancies. Our data suggest that antagonizing p110 constitutes a previously unappreciated therapeutic opportunity for diabetic retinopathy.




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Understanding Diabetic Neuropathy--From Subclinical Nerve Lesions to Severe Nerve Fiber Deficits: A Cross-Sectional Study in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Healthy Control Subjects

Studies on magnetic resonance neurography (MRN) in diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN) have found proximal sciatic nerve lesions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the functional relevance of sciatic nerve lesions in DPN, with the expectation of correlations with the impairment of large-fiber function. Sixty-one patients with type 2 diabetes (48 with and 13 without DPN) and 12 control subjects were enrolled and underwent MRN, quantitative sensory testing, and electrophysiological examinations. There were differences in mechanical detection (Aβ fibers) and mechanical pain (A fibers) but not in thermal pain and thermal detection clusters (C fibers) among the groups. Lesion load correlated with lower Aα-, Aβ-, and A-fiber but not with C-fiber function in all participants. Patients with lower function showed a higher load of nerve lesions than patients with elevated function or no measurable deficit despite apparent DPN. Longer diabetes duration was associated with higher lesion load in patients with DPN, suggesting that nerve lesions in DPN may accumulate over time and become clinically relevant once a critical amount of nerve fascicles is affected. Moreover, MRN is an objective method for determining lower function mainly in medium and large fibers in DPN.




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Appropriate Use Criteria for Imaging Evaluation of Biochemical Recurrence of Prostate Cancer After Definitive Primary Treatment




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Prospective Evaluation of 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT in Biochemically Recurrent Prostate Cancer in an Academic Center: A Focus on Disease Localization and Changes in Management

18F-DCFPyL (2-(3-{1-carboxy-5-[(6-18F-fluoropyridine-3-carbonyl)-amino]-pentyl}-ureido)-pentanedioic acid) is a promising PET radiopharmaceutical targeting prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA). We present our experience with this single-academic-center prospective study evaluating the positivity rate of 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PC). Methods: We prospectively enrolled 72 men (52–91 y old; mean ± SD, 71.5 ± 7.2) with BCR after primary definitive treatment with prostatectomy (n = 42) or radiotherapy (n = 30). The presence of lesions compatible with PC was evaluated by 2 independent readers. Fifty-nine patients had scans concurrent with at least one other conventional scan: bone scanning (24), CT (21), MR (20), 18F-fluciclovine PET/CT (18), or 18F-NaF PET (14). Findings from 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT were compared with those from other modalities. Impact on patient management based on 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT was recorded from clinical chart review. Results: 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT had an overall positivity rate of 85%, which increased with higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels (ng/mL): 50% (PSA < 0.5), 69% (0.5 ≤ PSA < 1), 100% (1 ≤ PSA < 2), 91% (2 ≤ PSA < 5), and 96% (PSA ≥ 5). 18F-DCFPyL PET detected more lesions than conventional imaging. For anatomic imaging, 20 of 41 (49%) CT or MRI scans had findings congruent with 18F-DCFPyL, whereas 18F-DCFPyL PET was positive in 17 of 41 (41%) cases with negative CT or MRI findings. For bone imaging, 26 of 38 (68%) bone or 18F-NaF PET scans were congruent with 18F-DCFPyL PET, whereas 18F-DCFPyL PET localized bone lesions in 8 of 38 (21%) patients with negative results on bone or 18F-NaF PET scans. In 8 of 18 (44%) patients, 18F-fluciclovine PET had located the same lesions as did 18F-DCFPyL PET, whereas 5 of 18 (28%) patients with negative 18F-fluciclovine findings had positive 18F-DCFPyL PET findings and 1 of 18 (6%) patients with negative 18F-DCFPyL findings had uptake in the prostate bed on 18F-fluciclovine PET. In the remaining 4 of 18 (22%) patients, 18F-DCFPyL and 18F-fluciclovine scans showed different lesions. Lastly, 43 of 72 (60%) patients had treatment changes after 18F-DCFPyL PET and, most noticeably, 17 of these patients (24% total) had lesion localization only on 18F-DCFPyL PET, despite negative results on conventional imaging. Conclusion: 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT is a promising diagnostic tool in the work-up of biochemically recurrent PC, given the high positivity rate as compared with Food and Drug Administration–approved currently available imaging modalities and its impact on clinical management in 60% of patients.




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Head-to-Head Comparison of 68Ga-PSMA-11 with 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT in Staging Prostate Cancer Using Histopathology and Immunohistochemical Analysis as a Reference Standard

18F-PSMA-1007 is a novel prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)–based radiopharmaceutical for imaging prostate cancer (PCa). The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of 18F-PSMA-1007 with 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT in the same patients presenting with newly diagnosed intermediate- or high-risk PCa. Methods: Sixteen patients with intermediate- or high-risk PCa underwent 18F-PSMA-1007 and 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT within 15 d. PET findings were compared between the 2 radiotracers and with reference-standard pathologic specimens obtained from radical prostatectomy. The Cohen -coefficient was used to assess the concordance between 18F-PSMA-1007 and 68Ga-PSMA-11 for detection of intraprostatic lesions. The McNemar test was used to assess agreement between intraprostatic PET/CT findings and histopathologic findings. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were reported for each radiotracer. SUVmax was measured for all lesions, and tumor-to-background activity was calculated. Areas under receiver-operating-characteristic curves were calculated for discriminating diseased from nondiseased prostate segments, and optimal SUV cutoffs were calculated using the Youden index for each radiotracer. Results: PSMA-avid lesions in the prostate were identified in all 16 patients with an almost perfect concordance between the 2 tracers ( ranged from 0.871 to 1). Aside from the dominant intraprostatic lesion, similarly detected by both radiotracers, a second less intense positive focus was detected in 4 patients only with 18F-PSMA-1007. Three of these secondary foci were confirmed as Gleason grade 3 lesions, whereas the fourth was shown on pathologic examination to represent chronic prostatitis. Conclusion: This pilot study showed that both 18F-PSMA-1007 and 68Ga-PSMA-11 identify all dominant prostatic lesions in patients with intermediate- or high-risk PCa at staging. 18F-PSMA-1007, however, may detect additional low-grade lesions of limited clinical relevance.




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A Critical Insulin TCR Contact Residue Selects High-Affinity and Pathogenic Insulin-Specific T Cells

Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune-mediated disease that culminates in the targeted destruction of insulin-producing β-cells. CD4 responses in NOD mice are dominated by insulin epitope B:9-23 (InsB9-23) specificity, and mutation of the key T-cell receptor (TCR) contact residue within the epitope prevents diabetes development. However, it is not clear how insulin self-antigen controls the selection of autoimmune and regulatory T cells (Tregs). Here we demonstrate that mutation of insulin epitope results in escape of highly pathogenic T cells. We observe an increase in antigen reactivity, clonality, and pathogenicity of insulin-specific T cells that develop in the absence of cognate antigen. Using a single TCR system, we demonstrate that Treg development is greatly diminished in mice with the Y16A mutant epitope. Collectively, these results suggest that the tyrosine residue at position 16 is necessary to constrain TCR reactivity for InsB9-23 by both limiting the development of pathogenic T cells and supporting the selection of Tregs.




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Manual acupuncture versus sham acupuncture and usual care for prophylaxis of episodic migraine without aura: multicentre, randomised clinical trial




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Clinical characteristics of 113 deceased patients with coronavirus disease 2019: retrospective study




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Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19 infection: systematic review and critical appraisal




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Use of electronic medical records in development and validation of risk prediction models of hospital readmission: systematic review




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Prospective registration and reporting of trial number in randomised clinical trials: global cross sectional study of the adoption of ICMJE and Declaration of Helsinki recommendations




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Occurrence, prevention, and management of the psychological effects of emerging virus outbreaks on healthcare workers: rapid review and meta-analysis




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Don’t Be Afraid of Political Fragmentation

16 December 2019

Pepijn Bergsen

Research Fellow, Europe Programme
If managed correctly, splintering and more volatile political systems – so-called ‘Dutchification’ – need not be a ticket to political and policy paralysis.

2019-12-16-Dutch-Election.jpg

Voters cast their vote as part of the Dutch general elections on March 15, 2017 at a polling station in a mill in Oisterwijk. Photo by ROB ENGELAAR/AFP via Getty Images.

In recent decades, political party systems across Europe have fragmented and electoral volatility has increased. The number of parties represented in parliaments across the continent has grown and the formerly dominant mainstream parties have seen their support base collapse, forcing parties into often uncomfortable and unstable coalitions.

From the United Kingdom to Germany, politicians and commentators talk of such scenarios in often apocalyptic terms and associate it with political instability and policy paralysis.

They shouldn’t. Instead they should focus their energy on making these increasingly competitive political markets work.

The Netherlands is frequently held up as a prime example of this process, which is therefore sometimes referred to as ‘Dutchification’. Its highly proportional political system has created the opportunity for new parties and specific interest groups to win parliamentary representation, ranging from an animal rights party and a party catering specifically to the interests of the elderly.

This has been accompanied by increased electoral volatility. In the 1970s, less than 15% of seats in the Dutch parliament would change party at any election, but in the last election in 2017, this was just over a quarter. The system also created space for the relatively early rise of populist far-right parties, though it was not the cause of their rise.

Nevertheless, despite the regularly difficult coalition politics, it remains one of the most well-governed countries in the world.

A short history of fragmentation

Looking at the effective number of parties represented in parliaments, the number of parties, corrected for their size, provides a good measure of the extent of fragmentation. In the Netherlands this steadily increased from around four in the 1980s to over eight following the election in 2017. Even the populist far-right vote has fragmented, with two parties partly competing for the same electorate. In other countries it has been a more recent phenomenon. Spain remained a de facto two-party system until the financial crisis. Dissatisfaction with both mainstream parties has seen challenger parties on both the left and the right attract significant support, making it harder to form stable coalitions. Political fragmentation decreased slightly in Italy in recent years, but that was from a high base as it shot up in the early 1990s when the post-war political settlement crumbled.

German politics, long a hallmark of stability, is struggling with the decrease in support for the parties that dominated its political scene in the post-war period. The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats only barely managed to win a majority together in the election in 2017, at 53.4% of the vote compared with the 81.3% achieved 30 years earlier. The latest polls suggest they would only get to 40% together if an election were held today.

A similar trend is visible within the European Parliament. Whereas the two largest groups in the European Parliament, the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, together won 66% of the vote in the election in 1999, they did not even manage to win a majority together in 2019, taking just 39.5% of the vote.

No crisis of democracy

If electoral volatility and political fragmentation does indeed constitute some sort of crisis of democracy, we should expect to see voters become unhappy about how their national democracy functions. Largely, the opposite seems to be the case.

In the Netherlands, satisfaction with its democracy went up at the same time as Dutchification did its work. Similar trends are visible in other highly fragmented European political systems, often those with very proportional systems. Despite regular minority governments, satisfaction with democracy is above 90% in Denmark and at 80% in Sweden, according to the latest Eurobarometer data.

In comparison, it stood at 52% in the United Kingdom and 53% in France, where the electoral system has, at least on the surface, prevented the kind of fragmentation supposedly plaguing proportional systems.

Satisfaction with democracy seems to be affected by a number of factors. This includes the state of the economy, particularly in countries that were hit the hardest by the global financial and euro zone crises. Nevertheless, the data suggests that, even if we can’t say that Dutchification by definition leads to more satisfaction with democracy, it is clearly not associated with falling faith in the system.

A competitive political market

Dutchification should be seen as accompanying a more competitive political marketplace. A more emancipated, demanding and politically engaged electorate than in the post-war decades is willing to shop around instead of merely vote according to socioeconomic class or other dividing lines, such as religious ones. The fragmented parliaments that emerge as a result provide better representation of different groups within European societies.

This makes life harder for Europe’s political parties and politicians, as they juggle large coalitions, or changing coalitions under minority governments, but provides voters with more choice and democratic renewal. If handled correctly this would also allow more responsiveness to shifts in public opinion.

Such democratic creative destruction in competitive political markets is to be celebrated in a well-functioning democracy. Just as companies prefer to operate in an oligopoly, political parties prefer the stability of limited political competition. But wishing for this kind of stability comes perilously close to preferring stability over proper representation.

Worrying about Dutchification risks confusing a crisis of the traditional mainstream parties with a crisis of democracy. For some countries, particularly those like the Netherlands and Denmark which have longer histories of consensus-based politics and coalition building, this is an easier adjustment. But this should not be an excuse to not attempt to make politics work better as they were forced to go through, arguably still ongoing, adjustment processes too.

Instead of investing in futile attempts to get back to how things were in the old days, or hoping this will somehow magically happen, political leaders and parties across Europe need to reassess how they deal with the new reality of Dutchification.




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POSTPONED: Is a 'Geopolitical' Europe Possible?

Invitation Only Research Event

25 March 2020 - 8:30am to 9:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Michael Karnitschnig, Director for External Relations, Secretariat-General, European Commission

What role does the EU want to play in a world characterised increasingly by power politics? The new European Commission has explicitly stated its ambition for the EU to become a stronger geopolitical actor. Is it capable of becoming a third pole in an enduring US-China stand-off?

From climate change to trade policy and security, the next 5 years may prove decisive in proving the EU can be a strong player both in its neighbourhood and globally. Given what is at stake, what are the Commission’s strategic and policymaking priorities for the next five years? With the discussions on the future EU budget ongoing, what areas will be prioritized when member states come to make decisions between competing objectives? Does the way the EU is perceived externally depend on its member states’ ability to put on a united front when it comes to the most pressing global challenges?

Finally, is this ambitious geopolitical vision deliverable within the EU’s existing structures? If not, are member states ready to give up more control for a stronger Europe at the EU level?

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Alina Lyadova

Europe Programme Coordinator




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Webinar: European Union – The Economic and Political Implications of COVID-19

Corporate Members Event Webinar

26 March 2020 - 5:00pm to 5:45pm

Online

Event participants

Colin Ellis, Chief Credit Officer, Head of UK, Moody’s Investors Service
Susi Dennison, Director, Europe Power Programme, European Council of Foreign Relations
Shahin Vallée, Senior Fellow, German Council of Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Pepijn Bergsen, Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

Chair: Hans Kundnani, Senior Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House


 

In the past few weeks, European Union member states have implemented measures such as social distancing, school and border closures and the cancellation of major cultural and sporting events in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19. Such measures are expected to have significant economic and political consequences, threatening near or total collapse of certain sectors. Moreover, the management of the health and economic crises within the EU architecture has exposed tensions and impasses in the extent to which the EU is willing to collaborate to mitigate pressures on fellow member states.

The panellists will examine the European Union's response to a series of cascading crises and the likely impact of the pandemic on individual member states. Can the EU prevent an economic hit from developing into a financial crisis? Are the steps taken by the European Central Bank to protect the euro enough? And are member states expected to manage the crisis as best they can or will there be a united effort to mitigate some of the damage caused?  

This event is part of a fortnightly series of 'Business in Focus' webinars reflecting on the impact of COVID-19 on areas of particular professional interest for our corporate members.

Not a corporate member? Find out more.

 




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Webinar: European Democracy in the Last 100 Years: Economic Crises and Political Upheaval

Members Event Webinar

6 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Pepijn Bergsen, Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

Dr Sheri Berman, Professor of Political Science, Barnard College

Chair: Hans Kundnani, Senior Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

 

In the last 100 years, global economic crises from the Great Depression of the 1930s to the 2008 financial crash have contributed to significant political changes in Europe, often leading to a rise in popularity for extremist parties and politics. As Europe contends with a perceived crisis of democracy - now compounded by the varied responses to the coronavirus outbreak - how should we understand the relationship between externally-driven economic crises, political upheaval and democracy?

The panellists will consider the parallels between the political responses to some of the greatest economic crises Europe has experienced in the last century. Given that economic crises often transcend borders, why does political disruption vary between democracies? What can history tell us about the potential political impact of the unfolding COVID-19-related economic crisis? And will the unprecedented financial interventions by governments across Europe fundamentally change the expectations citizens have of the role government should play in their lives?

This event is based on a recent article in The World Today by Hans Kundnani and Pepijn Bergsen who are both researchers in Chatham House's Europe Programme. 'Crawling from the Wreckage' is the first in a series of articles that look at key themes in European political discourse from the last century. You can read the article here

This event is open to Chatham House Members. Not a member? Find out more.




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Royal College of Surgeons launches postgraduate surgical certificate




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Choosing a core surgical training interview skills course




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Covid-19’s impact on US medical research—shifting money, easing rules