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Cancelling the New Sea-launched Nuclear Cruise Missile is the Right Move

David W. Kearn argues that deployment of nuclear weapons cannot rectify a perceived imbalance in conventional forces in the western Pacific.




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Ukraine in Europe: One Hard-Earned Step Closer

Mariana Budjeryn writes: War never stops at the border, especially on a continent like Europe. The European Union absorbed millions of Ukrainian war refugees and poured billions of euros into Ukraine's defenses and economic survival. The war permanently reshaped Europe: its demographics, political economy, and energy architecture are shifting in ways that will have irreversible long-term consequences. All of this is because in a very real sense Ukraine already is inextricably woven into the fabric of Europe: Ukraine’s pain is Europe’s pain and Ukraine’s gain will inevitably be Europe's gain, too.




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Noel Kempff Mercado Climate Action Project: The Promise and Peril of High-Potential Environmental Partnerships

In the first comprehensive post-mortem analysis of the Noel Kempff Mercado Climate Action Project (NKMCAP), Reine Rambert and Amanda Sardonis examine how NKMCAP failed to live up to its potential, by focusing on three different dimensions of partnership effectiveness: 1) the sustainability of the partnership, 2) the effectiveness of the collaboration process itself, and 3) the achievement of the planned objectives. Rambert and Sardonis extract several transferable lessons from the challenges faced by NKMCAP that are highly consequential to partnership effectiveness.




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Reining in Rebellion: The Decline of Political Violence in South America, 1830–1929

After a century of rebellion, South America experienced a rapid decline in revolts in the early 1900s. Historical narratives and an analysis of a comprehensive new dataset show that the decrease stemmed in large part from the expansion and professionalization of the region’s militaries, which were driven by an export boom and the threat of interstate conflict. 




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U.S. confident of safety of nuclear weapons, despite al-Qaeda presence



  • The India Cables

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191725: Ambassador presses Menon to implement civil nuclear cooperation with U.S.

The Indian civil nuclear bureaucracy understands it is "essential" to advance cooperation with the U.S., but claims progress is stymied by the inability of U.S. firms to share sensitive technical information pending the authorizations required under U.S. licensing regulations.




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NSG all set to up-end India's clean waiver

Proposed restrictions on transfer of sensitive nuclear items are a 'derogation', 'rollback' of U.S. commitments, Indian officials had warned



  • The India Cables

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Data | Anonymous donations to parties in FY21: Congress tops list, BJP close second

In FY21, national parties and regional parties received ₹427 crore and ₹264 crore worth of funds, respectively, from unknown sources




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Putin’s Nagorno-Karabakh Calculus Can Undermine Russian Clout in FSU

Simon Saradzhyan writes that Russia’s decision not to employ leverage to stop the conflict in its early stages made a lasting impression on its allies.




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The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: November 2019 - November 2020

 

  • Elbe Group Discusses Strategic Stability, Hybrid Warfare and Terrorism.
  • Mowatt-Larssen’s Book Details Lessons He Learned While Tracking Al-Qaida’s WMD Programs.
  • Experts on New START Extension and Other Nuclear Priorities of Biden Presidency.
  • Kazakhstan’s Last HEU Eliminated.
  • William Potter Joins Russian Academy of Sciences.
  • COVID, Nuclear Security On Agenda of IAEA’s 64th General Conference.
  • Mayak Aims to Process Entire range of SNF.
  • Atomguard Reports Foiling Unauthorized Access.
  • Allison: US Vital Interest in Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism Will Continue to Guide Its North Korea Policy.
  • Learning from COVID-19 to Prepare for Nuclear Attack.
  • Hecker, Kassianova Encourage Young US and RF Professionals to Explore Lessons of Nuclear Accidents.
  • Experts Weigh in on 75th Anniversary of Hiroshima Bombing.
  • A New Look at IAEA’s Nuclear Security Recommendations.
  • Azerbaijan Has Threatened to Strike Armenia’s NPP With Missiles.
  • IAEA Notified of 189 Incidents Of Material Being Out Of Regulatory Control in 2019.
  • Russia To Retrieve More Radioactive Debris from Bottom of Ocean.
  • Researchers Propose Fast Way to Detect Weapons Grade Materials.
  • Keeping Nuclear Power Plants Out of Reach of Terrorists During the Coronavirus Pandemic.
  • Bunn, Tobey and Roth Testify on Prevention of Nuclear Theft, Call for Cooperation With Russia.
  • Budapest Memorandum Parsed.
  • IAEA Holds A Ministerial on Nuclear Security.
  • Assessing Progress on Nuclear Security.
  • 12th GUMO Officer On Trial for Embezzlement.
  • Lukashenko: Pompeo Alerted Me to Nuclear Materials at Border.
  • US and Russia Reported HEU and Plutonium to IAEA.
  • IAEA Bank Receives LEU.
  • GICNT Hosted 8 Multilateral Activities in 2019.

 

 




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The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: November 2020 - November 2021

 

  • U.S.-Russia Elbe Group Maintains Focus on Threat of Nuclear Terrorism.
  • Former Chernobyl Plant Manager Bryukhanov Dies.
  • Matthew Bunn on Threat to Nuclear and Radiological Transports.
  • On 9/11 Anniversary Russian Officials Call for Resumption of U.S.-Russian CT Cooperation.
  • Experts Weigh in on 9/11 Anniversary.
  • U.S. and Norway Agree to Eliminate All of Norway’s HEU.
  • Two Soviet Nuclear Submarine Reactors Located.
  • Russian Security Council: Terrorists Remain Interested in NBC.
  • IAEA Adopts Resolutions on Nuclear Security, NS Center Planned.
  • Allison on Risk of Mega-terrorist Attack After U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan.
  • Arbatov Warns of Enduring Threat of Nuclear Terrorism to Russia in His New Volume.
  • Russia’s New Security Strategy Drops References to CT Partnership With U.S.
  • NNSA’s Non-Proliferation Budget to Decrease in ’22, Provides for US and Russian Visits.
  • Should U.S.-Russian Interaction in Cyberspace Involve CT? 
  • Russia’s NPP Operator Conducts Emergency Preparedness Exercise.
  • Putin and Biden Discuss Terrorist Threat Emanating from Afghanistan, but No Deal.
  • U.S. Experts on Ensuring Access to Neutrons While Reducing Nuclear Terrorism Risks.
  • Beebe Weighs in on U.S.-Russian CT Interaction.
  • Duo Detained for Alleged Attempt to Sell Americium-241.
  • 12th GUMO Guard’s Sentence Upheld.
  • NDAA-Mandated Group to Identify Nuclear Terrorism Risks.
  • Belfer’s MTA Hosts Conference on Lessons of Fukushima and Chernobyl.
  • Russia Withdraws from Uranium Hexafluoride Transportation Deal with U.S.
  • Bell: U.S. Needs to Convince Russia on Contending With Nuclear Terrorism Threat.
  • U.S. and Canada Complete Repatriation of HEU Material.
  • Siegfried Hecker Outlines his Vision of Future for Nuclear Security Cooperation.
  • Hackers Breach U.S. Nuclear Agency.
  • Tobey on Assassinations of Nuclear Scientists and Terrorists.
  • Rosatom Has Checked Nuclear Sites, Following a Tip on Terrorism from U.S.




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Dynamics of Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Threats to Post-Soviet Russia

Simon Saradzhyan was invited to publicly brief the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) committee addressing the adequacy of strategies to prevent, counter, and respond to nuclear terrorism, and identify technical, policy, and resource gaps. The consensus study is a congressionally mandated analysis included in the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1299I) sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy).  Nearly 60 stakeholders concerned about this topic from the Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, State Department, National Security Council, US Congress, the National Labs, and many non-governmental organizations were in attendance. The briefings are available at the NAS event website. Video of the presentation can be found here.




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The Electricity Sector and Climate Policy: A Discussion with Karen Palmer

Energy economist Karen Palmer, renowned for her research on the nation’s electric power sector, shared her insights on electricity regulation and deregulation, carbon pricing, and climate change policy in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”




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Private Sector Solutions for Climate Change: A Conversation with Michael Toffel

Michael Toffel, Senator John Heinz Professor of Environmental Management and Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School (HBS), discusses the many ways in which business and governments can and are working together to address climate change in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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Emma Rothschild on Adam Smith, Methane Emissions, and Climate Change

Economic historian Emma Rothschild, the Jeremy and Jane Knowles Professor of History at Harvard, lauded the efforts of young scholars to discover local solutions to mitigate the impacts of global climate change in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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Making the Case for Climate Adaptation: A Conversation with Richard Zeckhauser

Eminent Harvard economist Richard Zeckhauser presented arguments for additional climate adaptation measures in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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The Intersection of Trade and Climate Policy: A Conversation with Kim Clausing

UCLA Law School Professor Kimberly Clausing gives the Biden Administration high praise for its climate policies in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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Students Aren’t the Obstacle to Open Debate at Harvard

Professors hear a great deal these days about how hard it is to get our students to listen to, much less to engage with, opinions they dislike. The problem, we are told, is that students are either “snowflakes” with fragile psyches or “authoritarians” who care more about their pet causes than about democratic values such as tolerance, compromise and respect for opposing points of view. Students at Harvard, where I teach, returned from winter break in January to an institution that appeared determined to tackle this problem head-on. An email from the undergraduate dean reminded them that “The purpose of a Harvard education is not to shield you from ideas you dislike or to silence people you disagree with; it is to enable you to confront challenging ideas, interrogate your own beliefs, make up your mind and learn to think for yourself."
















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Cop: MDBs to up climate financing to $170bn/yr by 2030




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A “Nuclear Umbrella” for Ukraine? Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security

Europe after the Russo-Ukrainian War must develop a new security structure to defend against any Russian aggression. The safest option is a non-offensive, confidence-building defense. This option includes proposals such as the “spider in the web” strategy and the “porcupine” strategy to provide for European security in a region threatened by Russian expansion—without relying on the threat of nuclear war.




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Is America in Decline?

Joseph Nye argues that episodes of "declinism" say more about popular psychology than geo-political analysis, but they also show how the idea of decline touches a raw nerve in American politics. China is not an existential threat to the United States unless U.S. leaders make it one by blundering into a major war.




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Constructing Climate Change: Exploring How Cities Frame Climate Change in the Arctic

Framing climate policy actions to be acceptable by various stakeholders in cities poses a critical task for urban governance. This paper draws on the literature on climate change discourse to analyze the content of framing and its reasoning in the two municipalities located in the Arctic: Murmansk, Russia, and Tromsø, Norway.




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Explainer: What is the Bonn Climate Change Conference?

The intersessional conference stands as one of the most important regular milestones in international climate negotiations, but its relatively unknown status compared to the COPs has made it difficult to understand its place in international climate policymaking.




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International Trade and Climate Change Policy: A Conversation with Robert Lawrence

The rise of political populism and economic protectionism are serious barriers impeding efforts to combat global climate change. Robert Lawrence, the Albert Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School, expressed those concerns in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”




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Land Use Policy and Climate Change: A Conversation with Charles Taylor

The ways in which land use and environmental policies intersect with natural resource sustainability and climate change was the focus of discussion in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program” featuring Charles Taylor, assistant professor of public policy at Harvard Kennedy School. The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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Climate Change: Political Implications and Policy Response in Africa

The fourth session addressed the pressing issue of climate change and its political implications in Africa. This session highlighted the disproportionate impact of climate change effects on African nations and how governments are responding through policy measures. A significant focus of the discussion was placed on current climate financial models and the challenges to accessing funding for renewable energy and electrification projects in Africa. The study group counted with the presence of external expert speaker Ely Sandler, Fellow at the Belfer Center. Ely has worked as a senior consultant at the World Bank and previously at Morgan Stanley for nearly a decade. Policy proposals that Ely developed at Harvard were presented at COP27 and are now being adopted by the World Bank and UAE COP28 Presidency, with the hope of catalyzing trillions of dollars of green investment, in part through Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.




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Europe’s Carbon Border Tax Advances the Fight Against Climate Change

At first glance, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism may look like a potential source of international discord. But a closer look suggests that the EU’s strict carbon-pricing regime may be the best chance the world has to achieve the Paris climate agreement’s ambitious emissions-reduction goals.




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It Doesn’t Make Sense: Why US Tariffs on Chinese Cleantech Risk the Green Transition

Global demand for renewable energy is surging so why make solar panels, wind turbines and EVs dearer for western consumers?




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Not So Innocent: Clerics, Monarchs, and the Ethnoreligious Cleansing of Western Europe

Ethnic cleansing is not only a modern phenomenon. The medieval Catholic Church saw non-Christians as a threat and facilitated the ethnoreligious cleansing of Muslim and Jewish communities across Western Europe. Three conditions made this possible: The rising power of the papacy as a supranational religious authority; its dehumanization of non-Christians; and competition among Catholic Western European monarchs that left them vulnerable to papal-clerical demands to eradicate non-Christians. These findings revise our understanding twentieth- and twenty-first-century ethnic cleansing in places like Cambodia, Iraq, Myanmar, the Soviet Union, and Syria.




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Strategic Myopia: The Proposed First Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Defend Taiwan

David Kearn argues that the idea that the first use of nuclear weapons since 1945 would be by the United States in the defense of Taiwan against a conventional Chinese invasion would have significant, negative, and long-lasting, diplomatic ramifications. It is difficult to fathom the myriad potential consequences, but U.S. nuclear weapon use would almost certainly shatter the non-proliferation regime as a functioning entity, incentivize states (including China) to acquire or improve their existing nuclear arsenal, and damage America's standing globally.




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Putin’s Latest Nuclear Messaging: Softer Tone or Threat of Use?

On March 13, President Vladimir Putin granted an interview, in which he again delved into the conditions under which he says he would initiate the use of nuclear weapons. His remarks were so ambiguous that it caused mainstream Western media organizations—which tend to agree on what to emphasize in news out of the Kremlin—to put divergent headlines on the news stories that they ran about this particular interview. “Putin, in Pre-Election Messaging, Is Less Strident on Nuclear War. The Russian leader struck a softer tone about nuclear weapons in an interview with state television,” was the NYT’s headline. In contrast, the FT’s headline was “Russia ‘prepared’ for nuclear war, warns Vladimir Putin. President resumes bullish rhetoric over use of atomic arsenal if west threatens Moscow’s sovereignty,” while CBS News ran with “Putin again threatens to use nuclear weapons, claims Russia's arsenal ‘much more’ advanced than America's” and WSJ led with “Putin Rattles Nuclear Saber Ahead of Presidential Elections; Raising specter of nuclear confrontation.” So, which is it? Has Putin just struck a softer tone about nuclear weapons or has he rattled his nuclear saber yet again? The answer is both.




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Iran and Nuclear Verification: 20 Years of Continuing Sturm and Drang

Report by Trevor Findlay about recent politics surrounding the Iranian Nuclear Program.




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Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on the Global Nuclear Order

Mariana Budjeryn presents "Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on the Global Nuclear Order" at the DOE/NNSA Administrator's Strategy Forum




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The Enormous Risks and Uncertain Benefits of an Israeli Strike Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Assaf Zoran argues that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities may have the opposite result of prompting an escalation in Iran’s nuclear developments, a pattern previously observed in response to kinetic actions attributed to Israel.




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When Actions Speak Louder Than Words: Adversary Perceptions of Nuclear No-First-Use Pledges

Would the world be safer if the United States pledged to never use nuclear weapons first? Supporters say a credible pledge would strengthen crisis stability, decrease hostility, and bolster nonproliferation and arms control. But reactions to no-first-use pledges by the Soviet Union, China, and India suggest that adversaries perceive pledges as credible only when the political relationship between a state and its adversary is already relatively benign, or when the state’s military has no ability to engage in nuclear first use against the adversary. 




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Reducing Nuclear Dangers

Matthew Bunn argues that governments need help from scientists and engineers both in understanding the dangers that nuclear weapons continue to pose and in finding paths to reduce them.




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Is Nuclear Proliferation Back?

Joseph Nye considers lessons from his own work on preventing the spread of nuclear technology in the 1970s.




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Russia and the Global Nuclear Order

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine illuminated the long profound shadow of nuclear weapons over international security. Russia's nuclear threats have rightfully garnered significant attention because of the unfathomable lethality of nuclear weapons. However, the use of such weapons in Ukraine is only one way—albeit the gravest— that Russia could challenge the global nuclear order. Russia's influence extends deep into the very fabric of this order—a system to which it is inextricably bound by Moscow's position in cornerstone institutions such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). From withdrawing from key treaties to stymieing resolutions critical of misconduct, Moscow has demonstrated its ability to challenge the legitimacy, relevance, and interpretations of numerous standards and principles espoused by the West.