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Fed Flying Blind on Economic Outlook as U.S. Slowly Reopens

(Bloomberg) -- Millions of virus-idled American workers are now at home with little more than hand-wringing anxiety about where their next paycheck will come from. They are Jerome Powell’s biggest worry, and how to ease their plight with monetary policy is the Federal Reserve chairman’s largest challenge.The Fed will probably debate using instruments including stronger forward guidance or asset purchases when officials meet next month, which would add more muscle to interest rates that have already been slashed to zero.But those tools require officials to have a forecast they trust of where the economy is heading. The lack of clarity could be a reason to dial down expectations that they would take such steps in June, because officials will struggle to form an outlook as the nation slowly reopens.Policy makers have already described the difficulties that forecasters face.Vice Chairman Richard Clarida warned of “enormous uncertainty” in a CNBC interview and said “we have to be appropriately humble as we’re navigating this period.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Bloomberg Television that forecasting “has become very tough” now because it depends on the course of the virus. Philadelphia’s Patrick Harker described scenarios, including one with a second infection wave and “a painful economic contraction of GDP in 2021 as shutdowns are reintroduced.”Even so, Powell has said that the Fed will do what it can to curb the human tragedy of the virus’s economic harm.He helped nurture the longest U.S. expansion on record, a period of growth that was just starting to reach the most marginalized workers, from people with criminal records to those with little schooling.The Fed chief spent the last year on a listening tour to hear from ordinary Americans and discuss obstacles to even bigger gains.‘Absolute Limit’He’s now pledged to use Fed powers to the “absolute limit” to prevent the contraction from leaving deep scars on the economy’s long-term ability to grow -- through bankruptcies of small businesses or deterioration in worker skills. And he is boldly urging Congress to do more.“It is about not just winning the war against a depression, but it’s about securing the peace, winning the peace. We failed in 2008-09 to secure the peace,” Mohamed El-Erian, a Bloomberg columnist and chief economic adviser to Allianz SE, told Bloomberg Television Friday “We won the war against a threat of depression then, but we did not secure a peace of higher growth, more inclusive growth and sustainability.”In an April 29 press conference, Powell was asked if he’s troubled by the prospect that the downturn does the most harm to Americans who have only just managed to get a foothold in the labor market. “That’s exactly what I worry about,” he said.Record UnemploymentU.S. government data on Friday shows the nation headed in that direction. Employers cut 20.5 million jobs in April and the unemployment rate more than tripled to 14.7%, the harshest labor market downturn in the history of the data series. All the indications point to a brutal recession. The central bank wants to make sure it is as short as possible.Fed officials next month are due to refresh their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, where all 17 anonymously write down a forecast for their policy interest rate, GDP, inflation and unemployment. They skipped the process in March due to a rapidly changing outlook.With so many puzzles yet to be resolved, they may diminish its importance or skip it again at their June 9-10 meeting.Officials have already assured investors that interest rates will be held near zero until they are confident the economy is back on track to achieve their twin goals for full employment and 2% inflation.Zero RatesTraders have priced in zero rates for the rest of the year, and possibly even negative interest rates in 2021, an idea that Powell has dismissed in the past and which other officials played down last week as a prospect in the U.S.With rates already at zero, “the second tool,” said Daly, “has been forward guidance,” and then balance sheet policies. Still, there is a sense at the Fed that monetary policy will have to be complimented with further creative fiscal policy to help push demand higher.Fed officials have worked with the U.S. Treasury and Congress to provide bridge credit to everything from Main Street businesses to the largest corporations.“Will there be a need to do more though?” Powell asked at his April 29 press conference. “I would say that it may well be the case that the economy will need more support from all of us if the recovery is to be a robust one.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.





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Unusual Mother's Day weather: Two-thirds of the US face record cold and snow while a heat wave blasts the West

Mother's Day will bring Arctic blasts, wintry conditions and records low temperatures for two-thirds of the US. Meanwhile, a heat wave will hit Alaska





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Homebuying perks up as interest rates stay close to record lows, COVID lockdowns ease

Rates have risen just slightly, and buyers are coming back.





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Why Global Art Gatherings Had Become an Ecological Nightmare—Even Before Covid-19

Many collectors and enthusiasts continue to travel aboard gas-guzzling airplane to see art.





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Regional Economic Community Action Program, Inc. v. Enlarged City School District of Middletown

(Court of Appeals of New York) - In a tax-exempt charitable organization's action against a school district seeking to recoup erroneously paid taxes, summary judgment in favor of the school district is affirmed, where: 1) the school district was entitled to rely on the one-year statute of limitations in Education Law section 3813(2-b) rather than the general six-year period for contract actions; and 2) the taxpayer's cause of action for money had and received accrued when it paid the taxes, which was more than one year before it filed suit.




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Ronnie Van Zant, Inc. v. Cleopatra Records, Inc.

(United States Second Circuit) - Vacated an injunction that prevented a movie producer from releasing a film about the rock band Lynyrd Skynyrd. Held that a consent order settling a 1988 lawsuit concerning band members' rights to make films about the band did not support the issuance of an injunction here.




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Capitol Records, LLC v. ReDigi Inc.

(United States Second Circuit) - Affirmed a finding of copyright infringement, in a lawsuit that involved copyrighted music recordings resold through an internet platform. The suit was brought by several record companies.




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Government Orders Alone Didn’t Close the Economy. They Probably Can’t Reopen It. - The New York Times




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Hoping Llamas Will Become Coronavirus Heroes - The New York Times

via Health News - The New York Times https://nyti.ms/2WLL65m




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(500) https://joshuatdean.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/NoiseCognitiveFunctionandWorkerProductivity.pdf

Wow! Noise is a secret killer of performance. A 10db noise increase (from a dishwasher to a vacuum) drops productivity by 5% - but most people don't notice since it impacts cognition, not effort. Also, note that noise is greater in poorer neighborhoods...




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Untitled (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/business/coronavirus-white-house-economists.html)

So @jimtankersley talked to Kevin Hassett about the whole "cubic model" mess, and long story short, I'm pretty sure Hassett owes @NateSilver538 $538.




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Transfer Gossip: Sancho becomes Barca backup plan, Lampard rings Mertens




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Capitol Records, LLC v. ReDigi Inc.

(United States Second Circuit) - Affirmed a finding of copyright infringement, in a lawsuit that involved copyrighted music recordings resold through an internet platform. The suit was brought by several record companies.




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Pair falls just short of record

NICK Bertus and Will ­Affleck fell just three runs short of a century-old record to lead Parramatta to a two-day win over Western Suburbs.




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Energy Recovery, Inc. v. Hauge

(United States Federal Circuit) - The district court's decision finding defendant in contempt of its 2001 order adopting the parties' Settlement Agreement that plaintiff would be the sole owner of three U.S. patents and one pending U.S. patent application, is reversed and the injunction is vacated, where none of challenged conduct in developing and selling the pressure exchanger violates any provision of the 2001 Order.




eco

WesternGeco LLC v. ION Geophysical Corp.

(United States Supreme Court) - Reversed and remanded. WesternGeco owns a patent for a system to survey the ocean floor and they believed that a competing system owned by ION infringed on their patent. WesternGeco sued. The jury found ION liable and awarded WesternGeco damages including lost profit damages. ION argued that the lost profit damages was not allowed and the appellate court agreed with them. The US Supreme Court disagreed and reversed and remanded the decision stating that lost profits for a domestic patent was permissible under the Patent Act.




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City of L.A. v. AECOM Servs., Inc.

(United States Ninth Circuit) - In third-party claims brought by the City of Los Angeles for breach of contract and contribution against contractors that allegedly breached their contractual duty to perform services in compliance with federal disability regulations in the design and construction of a bus facility, the district court's dismissal of the City's claims is reversed where: 1) Title II of the Americans with Disabilities Act and section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act did not preempt the City's state-law claims because the ADA expressly disavows preemptive federal occupation of the disability-rights field; and 2) conflict preemption also did not preclude the City's claims.




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M.E.S., Inc. v. Safeco Insurance Co. of America

(United States Second Circuit) - Held that a general contractor could not proceed with its breach-of-contract and other claims against an insurance company that had issued surety bonds in connection with several federal construction projects. Affirmed dismissal of the general contractor's claims.




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Sustainability, Parks, Recycling and Wildlife Defense Fund v. Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery

(California Court of Appeal) - Rejected an environmental group's challenge to the issuance of a revised permit for a landfill. Affirmed the denial of writ relief.




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Capitol Records, LLC v. ReDigi Inc.

(United States Second Circuit) - Affirmed a finding of copyright infringement, in a lawsuit that involved copyrighted music recordings resold through an internet platform. The suit was brought by several record companies.




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PaTRAM Institute To Record Next CD In Saratov, Russia, Accompanied By The Wonderworking Kursk Root Icon Of The Mother Of God

Fresh Off Their GRAMMY Nomination For Their CD, Teach Me Thy Statutes,the PaTRAM Institute Will Record Their Next CD In Saratov, Russia This August.




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Cal. Public Records Research, Inc. v. County of Alameda

(California Court of Appeal) - Reversed. Plaintiff brought a petition for writ of mandate claiming the fee charged by Defendant, County of Alameda, for copies of official records violated Government Code section 27366. Trial court granted petition and issued a preliminary injunction against Defendant and awarded attorney fees to Plaintiff. Appeals court found that the County did not abuse its discretion in determining the fee it charged or that section 27366 was violated.




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Merzbow Joins Forces With Haino And Pandi On Blisteringly Intense Improv 'Become The Discovered, Not The Discoverer' On RareNoiseRecords

Kindred Spirits Met When Japanese Noise Legend Merzbow Got Together In The Studio With Fellow Countryman Keiji Haino And Drummer Balazs Pandi For A New Recording On RareNoiseRecords




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01100110 Releases Debut EP “Seaside Hollows” And Launches Record Label “Elektroakustische Tanzmusik.”

The Techno Artist And DJ Known As 01100110 Has Released His Latest EP Album, “Seaside Hollows” On His New Record Label “Elektroakustische Tanzmusik.”




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Delingpole: Michael Moore Has Become a 'Hero' to 'Climate Deniers', Complains Guardian

"How did Michael Moore become a hero to climate deniers and the far right?" asks a disturbed and tearful George Monbiot in the Guardian. Simple: by speaking the truth, for a change.




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Sanders: 'It Would Be an Economic Disaster' if Trump Didn't Fund Postal Service and It 'Went Under'

On Friday’s broadcast of MSNBC’s “All In,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) discussed what kind of economic stimulus should be passed to respond to the coronavirus and stated that it would be “an economic disaster” if President Trump didn’t fund the





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In Re Hyundai and Kia Fuel Economy Litigation

(United States Ninth Circuit) - In an en-banc decision, affirmed the approval of a class action settlement in a multidistrict litigation brought against two automobile manufacturers, which had been accused of making misrepresentations about their vehicles' fuel economy. Also upheld attorney fee awards, rejecting objectors' challenges.




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U.K. Rockers Tomorrow Is Lost Sign With Eclipse Records

U.K. Rockers Tomorrow Is Lost Sign With Eclipse Records




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DeFox Records Launch Card Disk

Respecting The Environment And A More Sustainable Future, Against Waste And The Use Of Plastic, DeFox Records Will Launch A Special Limited Edition Of Card Disk On The Market.




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NuWave Records Signs Fred Nice To Record Deal

Fred Nice, The Oxford, MS Native Has Officially Signed An Exclusive Record Deal With NJ-based NuWave Records




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OfficialVybe Will Release New Single, Entitled “Party At Atlantis” Under Roc Nation Record Label

“OfficialVybe Has Successfully Made A Deal With Roc Nation. He Will Release A New Single, “Party At Atlantis” This Year.”





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In Re Hyundai and Kia Fuel Economy Litigation

(United States Ninth Circuit) - In an en-banc decision, affirmed the approval of a class action settlement in a multidistrict litigation brought against two automobile manufacturers, which had been accused of making misrepresentations about their vehicles' fuel economy. Also upheld attorney fee awards, rejecting objectors' challenges.




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Montreal Hip-Hop Collective Triple-R Release Debut Album “Red Rum Records” Featuring Tracks With Swollen Members, Doom Squad, Demrick, And More

Montreal Hip-hop Collective Triple-R Has Signed With Squash Comp And Released Their Debut Album “Red Rum Records”




eco

DeFox Records Launch Card Disk

Respecting The Environment And A More Sustainable Future, Against Waste And The Use Of Plastic, DeFox Records Will Launch A Special Limited Edition Of Card Disk On The Market.




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The Week In California Politics: Gavin Newsom, PG&E, The CPUC And The Gig Economy

In this edition of CapChat, we’ll round up the last week’s fire news, the role Gov. Gavin Newsom has played as citizens’ advocate for those affected by successive power shut-offs, while repeatedly publicly blasting PG&E for lack of investment and not managing vegetation to prevent wildfires. Newsom has also said part of the problem has been a “cozy relationship” between the California Public Utilities Commission and PG&E. In addition, Newsom has suggested if the CPUC doesn’t do what he wants it to do with respect to PG&E, he’d try to remove commissioners. 

CapRadio’s Capitol Bureau Chief Ben Adler will talk about the history of the PUC and why commissioners have fixed terms of six years. He’ll also talk about the controversy around AB5 and the effort to put a measure on the 2020 ballot about the gig economy and more on how the November 2020 Ballot is shaping up.

Clarification: CPUC Commissioners serve a 6-year fixed term. Though they are appointed by the governor and must be confirmed by the Senate within one year of their nomination, they cannot be fired. A CPUC Chair/President is also appointed by the governor, and can be removed from that role by the Governor. That person, however, can stay with the PUC as a Commissioner for the remainder of their 6-year term.




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Themes By Bavotasan Is Becoming Bandicoot Pro

In November 2017, we here at Bandicoot Marketing acquired Themes By Bavotasan from Chris. It was great to meet Chris during the acquisition and hear about all of the hard…

The post Themes By Bavotasan Is Becoming Bandicoot Pro appeared first on bavotasan.com.




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California Rep. Doris Matsui / Sacramento COVID-19 Recovery / Poet Amanda Harrinauth And Finding Joy

California Rep. Doris Matsui discusses what did and didn’t work in COVID-19 relief packages. The Greater Sacramento Economic Council on the region’s potential for recovery, and poet Amanda Harrinauth on finding joy in every day.




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Briony Turner And Alec Boateng Promoted To Co-Heads Of A&R, Atlantic Records UK

Turner And Boateng Will Oversee The Atlantic A&R Team, Joint Projects, As Well As Maintaining Their Own Artist Rosters




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Fred Casimir To Develop BMG's Global Recordings Business

As Well As Building BMG's European Infrastructure, Casimir Was Instrumental In Developing BMG's Recordings Business




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New Audials 2020 With Ground-breaking Recording Quality And Speed

From September 2019 Onwards, Audials Generation 2020 Will Be Available On Online Shops And In Specialist Stores.




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GRAMMY®-Nominated Night Street / Interscope Records Artist K.Flay Hosts First-Ever Microcast Designed For Smart Speakers, “what Am I Doing Here”

A First Of Its Kind For The Music Industry, Listeners Can Access The Show By Asking Amazon’s Alexa To “Open K.Flay Show” Or By Asking Google Home To “Talk To K.Flay Show.”




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Seven Seas Music Secures Sync Licensing Rights For Jazz Re-Recording Of Eric B. & Rakim’s Classic Hip-Hop Album ‘Follow The Leader’

Seven Seas Music Will Now Represent The Re-recorded 11-track Album For Placements In Film Trailers, Advertising, Video Games, And More.




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Montreal Hip-Hop Collective Triple-R Release Debut Album “Red Rum Records” Featuring Tracks With Swollen Members, Doom Squad, Demrick, And More

Montreal Hip-hop Collective Triple-R Has Signed With Squash Comp And Released Their Debut Album “Red Rum Records”




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Trumpeter Franco Ambrosetti Leads All-Star Group On 'Long Waves' Feat. John Scofield, Jack DeJohnette, Uri Caine, Scott Colley - Out On Unit Records!

While Ambrosetti Decided To Pursue His Family's Multi-million-dollar Business For Decades, He Never Put His Trumpet On The Shelf.




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RareNoiseRecords Presents 'It's Morning' By LED BIB

It Becomes Stunningly Clear That , The Latest Album From The Uncategorizable UK Ensemble , Is Meant To Take The Listener On A Journey.





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Christ Becomes Our ‘Good Enough’

Jesus can transform you through the power of his love.

Imagine a world where people are awakened to the beautiful reality of God’s grace, mercy, and love. Imagine that the grace of God has so transformed people like you and me that we love him with all of our heart, mind, soul and strength. Through this love, we then care for our neighbors and ask how we can display Jesus for them today.

Maybe you are haunted by thoughts of inadequacy, asking if you will ever measure up. The reality is those thoughts are true, but Jesus becomes the answer. He becomes our “good enough.” Jesus becomes our adequacy and our righteousness. He becomes our very life. God sings and dances over you because Christ is in you (see Zephaniah 3:17). You are worthy because he is worthy

Watch the rest of the sermon here.

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The Great Omission Becomes the Great Commission

How God used the great church destroyer Saul to become the great multiethnic church planter.

The last words of someone are important, especially if that someone is the eternal Son, the second person of the triune God. Before Jesus ascended to heaven so he could function as his people’s great high priest, he commissioned and commanded his twelve Jewish disciples to be his “witnesses in Jerusalem and in all Judea and Samaria, and to the end of the earth” (Acts 1:8). These early Jewish believers disobeyed Jesus and his Great Commission by staying in Jerusalem among Jews. They had a bad case of ethnocentrism, believing that the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob was only for the Jews because God had given them the Law and circumcision as a badge of God’s covenant. They forgot that as Jews they existed to be a light to the Gentiles.

But Jesus would not let them disrupt his mission to reach the Gentiles, fulfilling his promises to Abraham. (See Genesis 12:1–3; Galatians 3:7–9; Romans 15:8; Ephesians 2:1). And, in order to force the homogenous church in Jerusalem to scatter on mission to reach the Gentiles, God allowed persecution to free the early Jewish church from the sin of ethnocentrism.

God used Saul and other enemies of the Church to free it from the sin of not reaching the Gentiles and move it toward becoming multiethnic:

“And Saul approved of his execution. And there arose on that day a great persecution against the church in Jerusalem, and they were all scattered throughout the regions of Judea and Samaria, except the apostles. Devout men buried Stephen and made great lamentation over him. But Saul was ravaging the church, and entering house after house, he dragged off men and women and committed them to prison” (Acts 8:1–3, ESV).

God is calling local ...

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