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Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling

Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks.




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The Russians Manipulated Our Elections. We Helped.

When Russian intelligence officers plotted their campaign to destabilize American politics in 2016, they had nearly a century of experience in covert manipulation to draw upon. The Internet had given the Russians new tools for this mischief. But their secret weapon was us — an open, divided, angry America.




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Why Bernie Sanders Will Win in 2020, No Matter Who Gets Elected

Stephen Walt writes that even though Bernie Sanders is out of the presidential race, the time has come for many of the policies that he promoted: Universal Healthcare; Democratic Socialism; Income Redistribution; and Foreign Policy.




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Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam

Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer.




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Trump Turned the Death Count Into a Story About Himself

Official figures exclude thousands who have died during the pandemic. To draw the right lessons, the United States needs an accurate tally of the victims.




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The Overwhelming Case for No First Use

The arguments in favor of the United States' declaring that the only purpose of its nuclear weapons is to deter others who possess them from using theirs — in other words, that in no circumstances will this country use nuclear weapons first — are far stronger than the arguments against this stance. It must be hoped that the next US administration will take this no-first-use step promptly.




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The U.S.-China Relationship is at a Crossroads

Joseph Nye writes that some decoupling of interdependence is likely, particularly in areas related to technology that directly affect national security. But will Washington and Beijing go too far?




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The Low-Yield Nuclear Warhead: A Dangerous Weapon Based on Bad Strategic Thinking

In the unintuitive world of nuclear weapons strategy, it’s often difficult to identify which decisions can serve to decrease the risk of a devastating nuclear conflict and which might instead increase it. Such complexity stems from the very foundation of the field: Nuclear weapons are widely seen as bombs built never to be used. Historically, granular—even seemingly mundane—decisions about force structure, research efforts, or communicated strategy have confounded planners, sometimes causing the opposite of the intended effect.




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Secrecy, Public Relations and the British Nuclear Debate

The opening of the British archives has seen historians uncover the secrets of the UK's nuclear weapons programme since the 1990s. While a growing number have sought to expose these former secrets, there has been less effort to consider government secrecy itself. What was kept a secret, when and why? And how and why, notably from the 1980s, did the British government decide to officially disclose greater information about the British nuclear weapons programme to Members of Parliament, journalists, defence academics and the tax-paying general public. 




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Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability

A simplified nuclear exchange model demonstrates that China’s ability to launch a successful nuclear retaliatory strike in response to an adversary’s nuclear first strike has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low.




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Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam

Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer.




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How Clean is the U.S. Steel Industry? An International Benchmarking of Energy and CO2 Intensities

In this report, the authors conduct a benchmarking analysis for energy and CO2 emissions intensity of the steel industry among the largest steel-producing countries.




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Illuminating Homes with LEDs in India: Rapid Market Creation Towards Low-carbon Technology Transition in a Developing Country

This paper examines a recent, rapid, and ongoing transition of India's lighting market to light emitting diode (LED) technology, from a negligible market share to LEDs becoming the dominant lighting products within five years, despite the country's otherwise limited visibility in the global solid-state lighting industry.




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Urban Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment Simulations for Developing Countries

In this paper, a quantitative Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment (WERA) framework is used to stochastically analyze the feasibility of waste-to-energy systems in selected cities in Asia.




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Urban Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment Simulations for Developing Countries

In this paper, a quantitative Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment (WERA) framework is used to stochastically analyze the feasibility of waste-to-energy systems in selected cities in Asia.




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Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling

Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks.




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Vettel leads dominant Red Bull front-row lock out

Red Bull's Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber silenced rivals' claims that the car was gaining an unfair advantage this season by locking out the front row of the grid in qualifying for the Chinese Grand Prix.




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Vettel praises last-minute set-up changes

Sebastian Vettel said that last minute changes to his car enabled him to take pole position in China




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Superb Button excels in the wet

Jenson Button secured a superb win in the wet at the Chinese Grand Prix, and with team-mate Lewis Hamilton taking second, it completed an excellent weekend for the McLarens




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No penalty for Hamilton or Vettel after pit lane incident

Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have been reprimanded but not penalised for their driving in the pit lane during the Chinese Grand Prix




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Stranded Virgin faces development problems

Virgin is facing major problems over much-needed developments to its cars after being stranded in Shanghai




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Trade secrets shouldn’t shield tech companies’ algorithms from oversight

Technology companies increasingly hide the world’s most powerful algorithms and business models behind the shield of trade secret protection. The legitimacy of these protections needs to be revisited when they obscure companies’ impact on the public interest or the rule of law. In 2016 and 2018, the United States and the European Union each adopted…

       




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How Clean is the U.S. Steel Industry? An International Benchmarking of Energy and CO2 Intensities

In this report, the authors conduct a benchmarking analysis for energy and CO2 emissions intensity of the steel industry among the largest steel-producing countries.




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Illuminating Homes with LEDs in India: Rapid Market Creation Towards Low-carbon Technology Transition in a Developing Country

This paper examines a recent, rapid, and ongoing transition of India's lighting market to light emitting diode (LED) technology, from a negligible market share to LEDs becoming the dominant lighting products within five years, despite the country's otherwise limited visibility in the global solid-state lighting industry.




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Urban Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment Simulations for Developing Countries

In this paper, a quantitative Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment (WERA) framework is used to stochastically analyze the feasibility of waste-to-energy systems in selected cities in Asia.




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Hamilton blocked from novelty helmet change

Lewis Hamilton appears to be the first victim of the FIA's controversial helmet ban after being blocked from wearing a novelty lid in Malaysia




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How Clean is the U.S. Steel Industry? An International Benchmarking of Energy and CO2 Intensities

In this report, the authors conduct a benchmarking analysis for energy and CO2 emissions intensity of the steel industry among the largest steel-producing countries.




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Illuminating Homes with LEDs in India: Rapid Market Creation Towards Low-carbon Technology Transition in a Developing Country

This paper examines a recent, rapid, and ongoing transition of India's lighting market to light emitting diode (LED) technology, from a negligible market share to LEDs becoming the dominant lighting products within five years, despite the country's otherwise limited visibility in the global solid-state lighting industry.




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Urban Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment Simulations for Developing Countries

In this paper, a quantitative Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment (WERA) framework is used to stochastically analyze the feasibility of waste-to-energy systems in selected cities in Asia.




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Why the Coronavirus Is Making U.S.-China Relations Worse

Joseph Nye writes that Trump's strategy of great power competition and trade wars is inadequate because the information revolution and globalization are changing world politics. Even if the United States prevails over China as a military power,  the country cannot protect its security by acting alone.




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What Policymakers Should Ask Modelers

With decision-makers relying on a growing torrent of forecasts regarding COVID-19 and other important issues, it is more important than ever that they ask questions about how the projections were made. To use predictive tools more effectively, policymakers should ask four questions in particular.




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Why Bernie Sanders Will Win in 2020, No Matter Who Gets Elected

Stephen Walt writes that even though Bernie Sanders is out of the presidential race, the time has come for many of the policies that he promoted: Universal Healthcare; Democratic Socialism; Income Redistribution; and Foreign Policy.




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Graham Allison on An Intelligent Way to Reopen

We can reopen in an intelligent way while going further to protect the most vulnerable, says 
Graham Allison.
 




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Vettel rues 'messy' qualifying

Sebastian Vettel was left ruing a missed opportunity in Singapore after failing to secure pole position for Sunday's night race




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Heidfeld unhappy on return to action

Nick Heidfeld's return to Formula One action did not go as well as he hoped




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It would have been too risky to pass Alonso - Vettel

Sebastian Vettel has said it would have been too risky to attempt an overtaking manoeuvre on Fernando Alonso to take the lead of the Singapore Grand Prix




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Cool Alonso never thought Vettel would pass

Fernando Alonso said he felt he had the Singapore Grand Prix under control as soon as he pitted for fresh tyres and came out ahead of rival Sebastian Vettel




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Webber applauds leftfield strategy

Mark Webber believes his alternative strategy paid off at the Singapore Grand Prix and was happy to settle for third after a tough race




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Mixed feelings for Alonso after retirement with ERS issue

Fernando Alonso was left with "mixed feelings" following the Malaysian Grand Prix after he retired from his McLaren-Honda debut on the 21st lap with an ERS cooling problem




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Being lapped by Vettel hurts - Ricciardo

Daniel Ricciardo said being lapped by race winner and former team-mate Sebastian Vettel was "the icing on the cake" after another frustrating race for Red Bull in Malaysia




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Vettel's victory a 'wake-up call' for Mercedes

Mercedes boss Toto Wolff says Sebastian Vettel's win for Ferrari in Malaysia has set alarm bells ringing for the reigning world champion




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Lauda: Vettel 'not boring anymore'

Three-time world champion Niki Lauda says Sebastian Vettel's victory in Malaysia was good for Formula One and the German driver's own image after the reputation he built between 2010 and 2013




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Red Bull's Marko wins €400 Vettel bet in Malaysia

Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko left the Malaysian Grand Prix €400 richer after an astute bet - on former protégé Sebastian Vettel winning the race in his Ferrari




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How Clean is the U.S. Steel Industry? An International Benchmarking of Energy and CO2 Intensities

In this report, the authors conduct a benchmarking analysis for energy and CO2 emissions intensity of the steel industry among the largest steel-producing countries.




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Illuminating Homes with LEDs in India: Rapid Market Creation Towards Low-carbon Technology Transition in a Developing Country

This paper examines a recent, rapid, and ongoing transition of India's lighting market to light emitting diode (LED) technology, from a negligible market share to LEDs becoming the dominant lighting products within five years, despite the country's otherwise limited visibility in the global solid-state lighting industry.




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Urban Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment Simulations for Developing Countries

In this paper, a quantitative Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment (WERA) framework is used to stochastically analyze the feasibility of waste-to-energy systems in selected cities in Asia.




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2020–2021 International Security Program Research Fellowships: Apply Now

The International Security Program (ISP) is still accepting applications for 2020–2021.  ISP is a multidisciplinary research group that develops and trains new talent in security studies by hosting pre- and postdoctoral research fellows. 




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Armed Rebel Groups Lobby in D.C., Just Like Governments. How Does That Influence U.S. Policy?

Armed rebel groups push for funding and recognition, and often get it.




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The Future of the Transatlantic Defense Relationship: Views from Finland and the EU

February 7, 2020: With the advent of the digital age and the rise of Russia and China as global powers, the EU must do more to defend itself and its relationship with the United States, according to Janne Kuusela, Director General Janne Kuusela. In an event moderated by  Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Executive Director of the Future of Diplomacy Project and the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship he explained why Finland could be a potential paradigm for the EU’s defense strategy. 

 




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What Allies Want: Reconsidering Loyalty, Reliability, and Alliance Interdependence

Is indiscriminate loyalty what allies want? The First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954–55) case suggests that allies do not desire U.S. loyalty in all situations. Instead, they want the United States to be a reliable ally, posing no risk of abandonment or entrapment.