• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM
• It's not a pretty picture in China
• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• BofA: Life don't come easy for CHF: What's the trade?
• US 10 year yield looks to close at the highest level since July 1
• Major European indices are closing sharply lower
• John Paulson drops out of the running for Treasury Secretary
• New York Fed: 1-year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook
• And they are off. US stocks are marginally higher in the early trading
• LiteFinance Becomes the Official Trading Partner of Leicester City Football Club
• Kickstart the FX day. A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective
• Canada Sept building permits +11.5% vs +1.7% expected
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Not much action as we await the US CPI release tomorrow

Markets:

• Bitcoin trades to $90,000 for the first time, two days after passing $80,000. The high reached $90,243
• WTI crude trades down $0.07 at $67.97
• 2 year yield 4.338%, up 8.4 basis points. 10 year yield 4.421%, +11.4 basis points.
• Gold down -$20.78 or -0.79% at $2598.58. Lowest level since September 20
• S&P 500 -17.36 points or -0.29% at 5983.99.
• Nasdaq index down -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19,281.40. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P closed by the exact same point amount....
• Russell 2000 tumbled -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84

In the US the NY Fed Survey showed inflation expectations moving lower with the one year inflation at 2.9% vs 3.0% estimate. That is the lowest in 4 years. The 3 and five years measures also declined with the 3 year down to 2.5% from 2.7%, and the 5 year down to 2.8% from 2.9%.

In Canada building permits soared by 11.5% after -6.3% decline last month. Overall permits were the second-highest level since the start of the new series in January 2017 but it's more of a one-off around government spending than anything related to the economy. Ontario's institutional component received big contributions from construction for long-term care facilities across the province and a hospital permit in Prince Edward County. Residential building is holding up on the multi-family side as the pipeline of condos continues to work its way through but single-family has flatlined.

The US bond market was open after Monday's Veteran's Day holiday and selling was the order of the day as traders price in the inflationary and growth implications of a GOP sweep (and perhaps increased deficits too). The 10-year yield rose close to 12 basis points. The 2 year is up close to 9 basis points.

The USD moved higher with the greenback moving the most vs the GBP (0.95%).. The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since August 8 and traded below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low. That level comes in at 1.27322. The current price is trading just above that level into the close for the day.

The EURUSD is rallying modestly into the close but still saw the dollar higher by 0.26% versus the EUR. The pair moved below the 1.0601 level which took to price to a new low for 2024. The low could only get to 1.0594 before bouncing higher into the close. The sellers in the EURUSD had their shot. They missed.

The USDJPY is closing higher by 0.61% and into a swing area between 154.54 and 155.21. The high price reached 154.92 extending above the high price from last week at 154.70. The price is trading at 154.62 into the close. Buyers are in control. Can they extend to the high target at 155.21.

The USDCAD traded to the highest level going back to October 2022 when the price extended to 1.3977. The high price today reached 1.3966 just 11 pips short of that high. The price is trading at 1.3949 going into the end of the trading day.

Gold continues its move to the downside after reaching record levels at the end of October at $2790.07. The price has since fallen -6.89% to $2597.88.

Bitcoin's sprint to the topside continued today with the price reaching above $90,000 for the first time ever and just 2-days after breaking above the $80,000 level. The high price reached $90,243. The price has come off that lofty level and trades at $88,092.

China-based Construction Machinery and Equipment (CME) with the data from earlier this week. In October China's excavator sales are estimated to have reached 16,791 units:

• that's +15.1% y/y

More notably, excavator sales in the Chinese domestic market are estimated at 8,266 units

• +21.6% y/y
• Excavator sales to the export market +9.46% y/y

For the January-October 2024 period this year, China's excavator sales are estimated to have increased by 0.47 percent year on year

• domestic market +9.8% y/y
• export market -7.41% y/y

Is this a sign of green shoots for the economy in China?

There has been plenty of stimulus announcements, that the market has been disappointed with. But, are thye having an impact?

Japanese wholesale prices, the PPI or CGPI:

+0.2% m/m

• expected 0.0%, prior 0.0%

+3.4% y/y

• expected +3.0%, prior +2.8%

The higher results will be a bit of a tailwind for the yen, at the margin. Not too much though, there is the huge monetary policy divergence that is weighing on the hapless yen to contend with.

Of note is that renewed yen falls pushed up import costs for some goods

The Bank of Japan is wary of yen weakness pushing up prices, the Bank wants inflation but not like that. The Bank wants inflation coming from wage growth pushing up demand. The Bank has said it'll consider raising rates to help slow or stop the yen decline. But political pressure is on the Bank not to hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring.

---

The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024:

+0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter

• expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%
• Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter.

+3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth equal to or above 4%.

• expected +3.6%, prior +4.1%

---

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Wage Price Index (WPI) quarterly, measuring changes in the price of labor, unaffected by shifts in workforce composition, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

The ABS provides detailed WPI data, including breakdowns by industry and sector, offering insights into wage trends across Australia's economy.

The U.S. presidential election draws near, and investors are on high alert as the outcomes of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's contrasting economic policies could have significant ramifications for the financial markets. With key decisions looming around tax rates, regulation, energy policy, and trade, the potential for market volatility increases depending on who gets into the White House and what the new balance of power in the U.S. Congress will be. In this article, Octa Broker's financial analyst, Kar Yong Ang, breaks down the candidates' divergent economic visions and outlines possible scenarios for market reactions post-election, offering critical insights for traders to navigate the uncertain financial landscape ahead.

With less than a day to go until the U.S. presidential election, investors and traders are bracing for the potential impact on the financial markets. Although both candidates (Kamala Harris and Donald Trump) proclaim to pursue similar goals–––notably, creating jobs and boosting the U.S. manufacturing base–––they offer very different approaches to economic policy. Therefore, financial markets will almost certainly respond differently depending on who ultimately gets into the White House. Furthermore, it is important to factor in the possible changes in the arrangement of power on Capitol Hill, as 33 out of 100 senators and all 435 delegates in the House of Representatives will also seek re-election this November.

At Octa Broker, we decided to offer our view about what to expect from the upcoming elections and what could be the possible impact on the financial markets in general and on gold and the U.S. dollar in particular. Before we lay out the possible scenarios, let’s first briefly recap the economic policy visions of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate, and of former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party nominee, and underline their key differences. Please note that this article will focus specifically on the candidates' economic policies that are expected to have the most impact on the financial markets and affect an average trader. Thus, the general focus is on tax policy, regulation, energy policy, foreign policy, and tariffs. The article will not delve into the details of other policies, such as abortion rights, immigration, housing, and healthcare policy.

Table 1: Comparing the Candidates

‘When you wake up on 6 November to check the results of the U.S. presidential elections, there are two things to keep in mind’, argues Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘Firstly, it is vital to realise just how decisive the victory of either of the candidates is. Secondly, it is very important to ascertain the new composition of the Legislative Branch'. Indeed, if either Harris or Trump wins the national popular vote with only a slim majority or the Electoral College produces mixed and uncertain results, the investors may get nervous, and market volatility will rise. ‘Contesting results are not good for the markets, as they may trigger disputes among the parties and delay important economic decisions in the best-case scenario and lead to social unrest and violence in the worst case’, Karr says.

The composition of the House and the Senate is equally important as they will largely determine the ultimate balance of power and the direction of the legislation. According to ABC News simulation, Republicans win control of the Senate 88 times out of 100[1], meaning that it is highly unlikely that the Democratic Party can manage to take out the upper chamber of the U.S. Congress. When it comes to the House of Representatives, however, the chances are 50/50. Thus, it seems reasonable to infer that only four potential scenarios exist in this election (see the table below).

Table 2: Possible Scenarios and the Dollar Impact

Scenarios 1 and 2

Scenarios 1 and 2 assume that Kamala Harris becomes the next President of the United States, but her executive power is severely or partly limited. In case Republicans capture both the House and the Senate, Harris's policy initiatives will be blocked or substantially amended. On balance, a Harris presidency facing a hostile Congress would bring about a politically unstable and unpredictable environment, which investors despise. As a result, the economy will underperform, stocks will decline, and the dollar will weaken.

‘A government paralysed by dysfunction and gridlock is the worst-case scenario for the U.S. economy in general and for the U.S. dollar in particular’, says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘The probability of a protracted government shutdown is very high under this scenario. U.S. stock market indices will certainly take a hit’.

Indeed, Harris's progressive initiatives on climate and the environment will be blocked, while fiscal and economic policy will become a key point of contention, leading to a major standoff over the budget. At the same time, Harris's presidency might result in less government spending, which will have a disinflationary impact, enabling the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue reducing interest rates. That, too, however, will have a long-term bearish impact on the U.S. dollar.

In turn, the greenback's weakness may have a bullish impact on commodities, especially gold, as it will become more affordable for holders of other currencies. Another bullish factor for commodities in general and for gold, in particular, is that the conflict in Eastern Europe will likely drag on under Harris, given that she has been more in favour of supplying the weapons rather than pushing for a peace deal.

‘All in all, I think Harris's presidency will be met with a bearish reaction in U.S. equity markets–––especially in the energy sector. Companies focusing on renewables may perform better but still suffer in the long term as Harris will struggle to push her environmental agenda. The U.S. dollar will almost certainly sell off, while the euro and Chinese yuan will strengthen’, concludes Kar Yong Ang.

Scenarios 3 and 4

Scenarios 3 and 4 assume that Donald Trump becomes the next President of the United States, but his executive power will either be partly limited by the Democratic House or, alternatively, he manages to achieve a sweeping victory with the Republican Party taking full control over both chambers of Congress. In this case, investors will likely cheer (at least in the short term), as Trump promises to cut red tape and reduce taxes. Stock indices will rally, and the dollar may strengthen. Still, there will be long-term risks associated with Trump’s trade policy.

‘The fears over U.S. debt sustainability will certainly rise under Trump’, says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘He will extend as well as enlarge the tax cuts, essentially bringing about a loose fiscal policy, which, in turn, will force the Fed to be hawkish’. Indeed, a Republican sweep victory is the most bullish scenario for the greenback in the midterm. Inflationary tax cuts will boost the economy and may potentially force the Fed to stop its rate-cutting campaign, which will support the U.S. dollar vs other currencies. However, the U.S.'s gigantic deficit will likely keep expanding. Reuters estimates that Donald Trump’s tax cut plans would add some $3.6 trillion to $6.6 trillion to federal deficits over a decade.

On the one hand, tax cuts may serve as a catalyst for U.S. economic growth, which should support oil prices, especially given that Trump is likely to enforce stricter sanctions against Iran. On the other hand, U.S. crude oil and natural gas output may rise as the Trump administration will likely support the companies engaged in fossil fuel production.

Trade policy is not expected to be Trump’s top priority, but he may still introduce new tariffs in 2025-2026. First and foremost, this will negatively affect China and its currency, the yuan. At the same time, Trump’s victory will be a major bullish factor for the crypto industry in general and for digital currencies in particular. He made no secret of his support for crypto and even advocated for the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve.

‘All in all, I think Trump’s presidency will be met with a bullish reaction in U.S. equity markets–––especially in the energy sector, and especially in case of a sweeping victory. Companies with a focus on renewables will underperform, bitcoin will rally, while the euro and the Chinese yuan will fall. However, the market has already partly priced in Trump’s victory. Therefore, in a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario, the asset prices I just mentioned may actually drop immediately after the election, but will likely remain supported in 2025’, concludes Kar Yong Ang.

About Octa

Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 70 awards, including the ‘Best Forex Broker 2023’ award from AllForexRating and the ‘Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global Brand Magazine.

What we know so far

As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, most data providers, including ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN, projected that Donald Trump would become the next president of the United States. However, even as Trump’s victory looks almost guaranteed at this point, it is the balance of power in the U.S. Congress that will determine how successfully and effectively the next president will be able to govern.

So far, Republicans have won an extra seat in the Senate, but neither of the parties has a clear advantage in the battle for the House of Representatives. Overall, the counting of votes is still at a relatively early stage, and it could be hours or even days before a final outcome is known. The contest will come down to seven swing states, only three of which (North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania) have been most likely won by Trump so far. Still, judging by the latest market reaction, it appears reasonable to infer that global investors are pricing in a decisive victory by Donald Trump.

What has been the impact so far

As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, the global markets were positioned for Donald Trump’s victory. U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. stock benchmark indices rallied sharply, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) higher. Given that, it is no wonder other major fiat currencies plunged, with EURUSD and GBPUSD down 1.82% and 1.32%, respectively, while bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $75,410, as per Coinbase.

'Such a dramatic shift in market sentiment is explained by Trump’s official policies, or more precisely by the possible effect these policies are likely to have,' says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. 'Generally, it all boils down to Trump's tax, immigration, and trade policies, which differ greatly from what Harris proposed. The market perceives them as inflationary, which is why we are seeing a bullish impact in the U.S. dollar.'

The United States controls the world's primary reserve currency, the U.S. dollar, so only a few countries will not feel the effect of the latest U.S. presidential and congressional elections. Major currencies are already experiencing the initial impact. 'Major currencies are falling predominantly because the U.S. dollar is rising, but there is also a fear that Trump's policy on tariffs may hit their domestic economies,' Kar said.

Indeed, the primary reason for such a dramatic decline in EURUSD, for example, is that investors fear that Trump's policies on immigration and taxes will spur inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten its monetary policy. This may expand the interest rate differential between the two economies, favouring the greenback. In addition, Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on certain European goods like autos and chemicals. According to some analysts, Trump's proposed 10% universal tariff on all U.S. imports may erode Europe's GDP by up to 1.5% or about €260bn.

A similar kind of impact may await the United Kingdom, where Trump's blanket tariffs would hit billions of pounds of U.K. automotive, pharmaceutical, and liquor exports. It stands to logic that GBPUSD was down more than 1.3% today.

For similar reasons, CNYUSD (Chinese renminbi / U.S. dollar spot rate) hit a 3-month high. 'For the Chinese economy, the risks are even greater, as Trump promised to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods. On top of that, under his administration, tensions are likely to grow over the CNYUSD exchange rate,' comments Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. Although the currency policy of the future Trump Administration is unclear, in his interview with Bloomberg, he had this to say: ‘We have a big currency problem because the depth of the currency now in terms of strong dollar / weak yen, weak yuan, is massive.

Interestingly, the impact on the gold market has been relatively muted so far. As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, XAUUSD was down 1.2%, but historically, it is not a significant swing, especially given how much the U.S. dollar has strengthened. 'Because Trump's victory appears to be decisive, it lowers the probability of social tensions in the U.S., which is not a minor factor considering how fractious U.S. politics has become lately. Thus, XAUUSD is selling off, but I think there are bullish risks ahead as relations between China and the U.S. turn bitter,' comments Kar Yong Ang.

Indeed, Donald Trump will likely heighten the Sino-U.S. trade tensions, which is a positive factor for gold in general. In addition, Trump's massive tax cuts will likely expand the U.S. fiscal deficit and may turn some strategic investors away from the U.S. dollar and into gold and bitcoin. In fact, BTCUSD hit a new all-time high on the news of Trump's potential victory. He is seen as more actively supportive of cryptocurrencies than Harris.

In the short term, all the bullish dollar trades may temporarily reverse as traders buy the dips in EURUSD and GBPUSD in hope of a technical rebound. In the long term, however, the bearish pressure on these pairs will likely persist.

About Octa

Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 70 awards, including the ‘Best Forex Broker 2023’ award from AllForexRating and the ‘Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global Brand Magazine.

Following his win in Pennsylvania and earlier victories in other key battleground states in Georgia and North Carolina, Republican candidate Donald Trump took to the stage shortly after in Palm Beach, Florida.

Trump is set to become the 47th President of the United States (US) as he took an early victory lap on stage and expressed gratitude to his family, friends and team. Interestingly, alongside Grover Cleveland – the first Democrat elected following the Civil War – Trump is the second president to serve for a second non-consecutive term for four years.

In a surprising turn, Trump’s victory speech was relatively subdued; no threats of tariffs were mentioned, and he did not refer to his opponent, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who postponed her scheduled speech at Howard University. ‘Winning the popular vote was very nice’, Trump said in his speech, adding: ‘America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate; we have taken back control of the Senate’.

Several members of Trump’s team and friends were invited to speak on stage. His running mate, JD Vance of Ohio, thanked Trump for allowing him to ‘join you on this incredible journey’. Vance added, ‘I think we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America’.

Dana White, the CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), also addressed the nation, stating, ‘Nobody deserves this more than him [Trump]’. He remarked that Trump ‘is the most resilient man I have ever met’.

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, also received significant praise from Trump, voicing his appreciation and calling Musk a ‘super genius’, emphasising that ‘we have to protect our geniuses’. Musk has been vocal in his support for Trump and reportedly invested over US$130 million in his campaign.

Foreign leaders applauded Trump for his victory. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Trump and said he looks forward to collaborating with Trump in the years ahead. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to the platform X to convey his wishes as well, emphasising his desire to strengthen the partnership between the two countries. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Trump's win as ‘history's greatest comeback’ in his post on X.

What Does Donald Trump’s Victory Mean for the US?

Donald Trump will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025 at the US Capitol building in Washington, DC. Americans can expect tax cuts, immigration controls and tariffs.

A Trump presidency will also likely mean lower taxes, a move with plans for widespread changes to taxation, which should increase spending and spur sentiment, at least in the near term.

In his own words, Donald Trump’s second term is expected to be ‘nasty a little bit at times, and maybe at the beginning in particular’. Trump has promised an aggressive approach towards illegal immigration in the US, which could include plans of mass deportation of undocumented migrants, noting that he ‘will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out’.

Trade tariffs are another one of Trump’s policies that the US economy can expect, as he is expected to increase the protectionist policies he introduced in his first term. However, as noted, he failed to address this in his victory speech today.

Another important issue that Trump and the team must address is the debt ceiling (or debt limit), which is the maximum amount of money the US Treasury can borrow to pay its debt obligations. You may recall that the ‘statutory debt ceiling’ was suspended in early January and is due to be reinstated on 1 January 2025. This may involve the Treasury drawing on its existing cash to fulfil its short-term obligations until another suspension of the debt limit is imposed or the debt ceiling is further increased.

Trump Trade is Alive and Kicking

Markets responded as expected, reigniting the Trump Trade, with the US dollar (USD), US Treasury yields, US equities and digital currencies all catching a strong bid.

Despite moderately fading session highs, the US Dollar Index is up 1.5%, which could eventually see the Index aim for June peaks at around 106.13, closely followed by 106.52, the high for the year. US Treasury yields remain underpinned, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding near session highs around 4.42% (up 3.5%).

While commodities experienced a selloff, we have seen a modest recovery unfold, drawing spot gold (XAU/USD) and WTI oil off session lows. In the crypto space, versus the USD, Bitcoin clocked a fresh record high of US$75,415 (up 6.4%), and Ethereum is up nearly 9.0% and testing the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle, pencilled in from US$2,062 and US$2,790.

Cryptocurrency payments have made financial transactions faster and safer. Forex brokers that integrate a cryptocurrency payment gateway can provide these advantages and more for their users. Crypto payment integration results in real-time transaction settlement, lower fees, and improved fraud prevention. These benefits increase forex brokers' operational efficiency, help them attract a global clientele, and remove geographical barriers. To grow and scale as a broker in this dynamic era, blockchain technology must be applied strategically to increase a business’s competitive edge, and drive scalability. Discover how accepting crypto payments can improve your forex brokerage business in this article.

Increased Global Reach

Forex brokers can expand their global reach by integrating a cryptocurrency payment gateway. Research by Oxprocessing and B2Broker shows that forex brokers saw a 20-30% increase in their client base when they started accepting cryptocurrency payments.

The rising forex broker client base after crypto adoption stems from the popularity and user realization of the benefits of crypto like real-time transaction settlement, unlike banks. The lower fees, flexibility, and additional security also attract many users as we shall see subsequently.

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Transaction Speed and Overall Efficiency

Real-time payment settlement is a game changer for forex brokers. Payment gateway comparison experts Crypto Payment Gateways note that while the average traditional payment processing time takes 7-14 days, cryptocurrency payments settle in a few seconds to a few minutes.

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Analysis from Blockdata shows that cryptocurrency payments can cut transaction costs by 70% compared to traditional methods. Paying with known methods like credit cards often incurs 1.5% to 3.5% in transaction fees. Cryptocurrency transactions using payment methods like Bitcoin cost about 0.01%-1%.

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From declined card transactions to restricted regions, the limitations of traditional payment systems impact forex brokers’ ability to scale. Brokers can tap into the global market and attract clients across the globe by adopting crypto payment solutions. The flexibility of crypto integration also helps brokers build adaptable business models and solutions that serve their client base perfectly. These benefits coupled with cost savings and instant settlement mentioned before improve brokerage efficiency and user satisfaction helping forex brokers grow their business beyond expectations.

User Satisfaction and Competitive Edge

Crypto Wallet

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Crypto Adoption

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Conclusion

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In brief from WPAC's note:

• September quarter Wage Price Index below the RBA’s expectation which pointed to a 0.9%qtr rise in both the September and December quarters of 2024
• Wage inflation peaked at 4.3%yr in December 2023 and has been drifting lower through 2024
• Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.8% (3.5%yr) ... The RBA is currently forecasting annual wages growth to print 3.4%yr for end 2024 and hold at that rate through to June 2025.

***

The WPI should easily come in under that RBA forecast by end 2024. While some will point to slowing wages as a reason to cut rates the RBA is in no hurry, still war of elevated demand and inflation likely to pop back above the top of the 2 - 3% target band once government cost of living subsidies roll off.

• Fed speakers on energy, the economy, and maybe policy due on Wednesday
• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)
• AUD traders heads up - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks Thursday
• The argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thin
• Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaking Wednesday
• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"
• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that's what are seeing
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1991 (vs. estimate at 7.2305)
• Dogecoin catches a bid on Trump's new DOGE department headed by Musk
• Trump names Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Japan PPI (October) +0.2% m/m (expected 0%) and +3.4% y/y (expected +3.0%)
• Barclays on oil - current market dynamics relatively stable, doesn't foresee major shifts
• ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank's 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate
• BoA expect a 4% EPS benefit for S&P 500 equites from Trump corporate tax cuts
• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• Green shoots in China? Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Nov: Bitcoin hits $90K. Stocks fall. USD moves higher.
• NY Fed Perli says there's been more friction in money mkts lately, repo rate rise orderly
• Amazon’s Bezos sells US$1.25bn of shares
• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 13 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Small ranges prevailed during Asia time with many traders content to wait until the US inflation data later.

• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)

Data events during the session here were lower-tier. We had PPI data from Japan coming in higher than expected. Renewed yen weakness pushed up import costs for some goods. At the margin, an argument can be made that the data was supportive of a nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Against this is, of course, is the new political pressure on the Bank to not hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring. Many months away. The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18 - 19.

USD/JPY moved a little higher, but didn’t get to 155.00. As I post its around the middle of its session range circa 154.80.

Data from Australia showed wage growth moderating a little. This is not sufficient for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate any time soon. The next meeting is December 9 – 10, and then in February (17 – 18).

Earlier this week People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today the Bank set the USD/CNY reference rate more than 300 points lower than model estimates (ie a stronger yuan). The Bank delivered on its word to support the yuan. Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH).

Bitcoin sat near US$88K.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0650 levels. The former in particular will continue to be a notable one, adding another layer to key support at the figure level for the time being. As such, the expiries are likely to once again keep price action locked in until we get to US trading later at least.

As an aside, just be wary of the larger option expiries at the same level of 1.0600 through the week. And on Friday, EUR/USD also has a very large one pinned at 1.0700. So, just be wary of that in case.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

• Expects inflation to moderate in France
• Expects French unemployment rate to go up to around 8% before falling back

He is speaking somewhat in his capacity as Bank of France governor here. And the remarks aren't anything that stand out. As things stand, traders have fully priced in a rate cut for December. The odds of a 25 bps move are at ~68% with the remainder tied to a 50 bps rate cut.

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For some context, these subsidies did come to an end in May but were reinstated in August through to October to cope with the warmer weather. Subsequently, they were continued until this year-end but the funds had to be drawn from reserves in the budget for the fiscal year that started in April.

NHK is now reporting that the government is considering keeping these subsidies from January through to March next year. Amid a higher cost of living in key populated areas such as Tokyo, the measure above is mainly to try and combat rising consumer prices.

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show Premiere will examine the future impact of edge technology on radio and television broadcasters during a session titled “Livin’ on the Edge: Advances in Computing and Networking to Drive Innovation in Broadcasting.” The session, which will air on Wednesday, April 21st at 3 p.m. ET and be available on-demand, will present a new study about opportunities created by wider adoption of edge technologies in the next three to four years.

Washington, D.C. -- The 2022 NAB Show, April 23–27, will feature distinct destinations focused on three main pillars associated with the content lifecycle. Designated “Create,” “Connect” and “Capitalize,” and situated throughout the North Hall, Central Hall and new West Hall of the Las Vegas Convention Center, each area offers renewed opportunities for learning, discovery and engagement.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the hire of Bradford Caldwell as vice president of Member Experience. Caldwell, who starts on February 1, will report to Executive Vice President of Industry Affairs April Carty-Sipp.

Washington, D.C. – Stephen J. Dubner and Dr. Steven Levitt, co-authors of the “Freakonomics” book series and podcast hosts on the Freakonomics Radio Network, will keynote NAB Show’s closing session, “Why the Media & Entertainment Industry Should Think Like a Freak” on Wednesday, April 27 on the NAB Main Stage. NAB Show will be held April 23-27 in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- The 2022 NAB Show will explore the ongoing deployment of Next Gen TV in broadcast television markets across the country and how broadcasters are utilizing the cutting-edge transmission standard to develop consumer-friendly features, capitalize on new content opportunities and unlock new revenue streams. Next Gen TV exhibits, demonstrations and sessions will take place throughout NAB Show, held April 23–27 in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- David Field of Audacy and Bob Pittman of iHeartMedia will discuss how they have transformed their business in response to the pandemic and with an eye to the future during a NAB Show session titled “Transforming Radio in the Audio Renaissance,” Monday, April 25, 2022 at 2:00 p.m. in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show attendees will navigate a convention floor featuring some of the world’s leading brands and companies, as well as first-time exhibitors and innovation zones showcasing the most cutting-edge advancements changing the broadcast, media and entertainment industries. The 2022 NAB Show will run April 23–27 at the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC).

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show the world’s largest annual conference for broadcast , entertainment and technology professionals, will host attendees from 154 countries and exhibiting companies from 38 nations at the 2022 NAB Show, held April 23 – 27 in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- PILOT, the innovation wing of the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), today announced the development of a NextGen TV Transmission ID (TxID) table for voluntary use by broadcasters using the ATSC 3.0 transmission standard. The table and TxID codes can be used to identify individual transmissions for testing, measurement, interference identification and other differentiation purposes.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) announced today that Alex Siciliano has joined the organization as senior communications strategist, effective April 27. Siciliano reports to NAB Chief of Staff and Executive Vice President of Public Affairs Michelle Lehman.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today the Federal Communications Commission denied a joint request by NAB and NPR for a two-week extension of the comment deadline in a proceeding on FM broadcast booster stations. The following statement can be attributed to NAB Chief Legal Officer Rick Kaplan:

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters Leadership Foundation (NABLF), in partnership with Hearst Television, announced a new fellowship program honoring the legacy of distinguished broadcast professional Emerson Coleman last night at the Celebration of Service to America Awards. Through the Emerson Coleman Fellowship (ECF), NABLF and Hearst Television will work to create a more diverse workforce at every level of the broadcast industry that is representative of the communities served. 

Washington, D.C. – A new three-part Radio Experience at NAB Show New York will feature a special Radio Insights Executive Seminar presented by Bloomberg. Exclusively for NAB members, the limited capacity executive program will take place in New York on October 19 at the Javits Center in the morning and continue in the afternoon at Bloomberg’s headquarters.

The 2022 NAB Show New York will showcase hands-on learning and interactive product discovery with more than 230 leading-edge companies, including 32 first-time exhibitors. NAB Show New York takes place October 19-20, 2022, at the Javits Center.

NEW YORK -- Total preliminary registered attendance reached 9,576 for the 2022 NAB Show New York, held October 19-20 at the Javits Center. The show floor featured 245 exhibitors showcasing the latest technology in media and entertainment. The 2023 NAB Show New York will be held October 25-26, 2023.

NAB Show is launching a new awards program to recognize individuals, companies and products for outstanding innovations in media technology that promote conservation and reusability of natural resources and foster economic and social development. The NAB Show Excellence in Sustainability Awards will be presented during a special ceremony on the Main Stage at NAB Show on April 15, 2023 in Las Vegas.

Washington, D.C.— NAB Show is collaborating with StoryTech to launch three unique attendees tour experiences at the 2023 NAB Show in Las Vegas. The tours explore three central themes: managing data, innovation in virtual production and the evolution of video. Group and individual tours are offered Sunday, April 16 through Tuesday, April 18 at the Las Vegas Convention Center.

Washington, D.C.—NAB Show is accepting entries for the newly launched Excellence in Sustainability Awards. The awards recognize individuals, companies and products for outstanding innovations in media technology that promote conservation and reusability of natural resources and foster economic and social development.

Washington, D.C./New York - NAB Show and Future Media Conferences (FMC), producer of Post|Production World (P|PW), are adding three unique and comprehensive training conferences for creative professional at NAB Show, April 15 – 19 in Las Vegas. In addition to the legacy P|PW conference for production and post-production specialists, the 2023 NAB Show will feature:

Washington, D.C. -- The NAB Show floor will feature some of the world's leading brands and companies, as well as first-time exhibitors and innovation zones showcasing the most cutting-edge technology advancements for media and entertainment. The 2023 NAB Show will run April 15–19 at the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC).

Washington, D.C. -- The NAB Show Broadcast Engineering and IT (BEIT) Conference will offer forward-focused insights into the technical issues, challenges and opportunities affecting the future of content delivery ecosystems. Produced in partnership with the Society of Broadcast Engineers, the Society of Cable Telecommunications Engineers and the North American Broadcasters Association, the conference will run April 15–18, 2023 at the Las Vegas Convention Center.

Washington, D.C. -- The 2023 NAB Show will lead a collaborative, immersive and interactive exploration of the transformative impact Web3 and other internet advances are having on the media and entertainment industry on April 15-19 at the Last Vegas Convention Center. Educational programming, hands-on demonstrations, special events, networking sessions and dozens of exhibitors on the show floor will explore the next generation of the internet and its potential to unlock new opportunities in the content lifecycle.

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show launched a new awards program in 2023 to recognize individuals, companies and products/services for outstanding innovations in media technology that promote conservation and reusability of natural resources and foster economic and social development. The NAB Show Excellence in Sustainability Awards will be presented during a special ceremony on the Main Stage at NAB Show on April 16, 2023, at 3:30 p.m. in Las Vegas. Prior to the awards ceremony, and open to all show attendees, the “Why Sustainability In Media Matters” panel will feature a discussion among industry leaders on sustainability in media today, and what it means for the future.

The 2023 NAB Show will host the 4th Global Next Gen Broadcasting Conference, co-produced by NAB and the Korea Radio Promotion Association (RAPA) on Sunday, April 16 from 4:00 pm to 6:00 pm PT in Room W208/209 in the Las Vegas Convention West Hall.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A bipartisan group of 27 U.S. senators, led by Sens. Brian Schatz (D-HI) and Todd Young (R-IN), sent a letter today to Federal Communications Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel urging the Commission to take an active role in expediting the continued rollout of the Next Generation TV standard, also known as ATSC 3.0. With over 60% of Americans in range of a Next Gen TV signal, the senators note that, “a successful ATSC 3.0 transition should be a priority of the FCC going forward to ensure that local broadcasters can continue to best serve their communities as a trusted source of local news.”

LAS VEGAS, Nev. -- NAB Show today announced the recipients of the newly launched Excellence in Sustainability Awards during a live awards ceremony on April 16 at the 2023 NAB Show in Las Vegas. The awards recognize individuals, organizations, and products/services for outstanding innovations in media technology that promote conservation and reusability of natural resources and foster economic and social development. The awards program is supported by Amazon Web Services (AWS).

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today launched a nationwide search for an executive vice president and managing director of Global Connections and Events overseeing the annual NAB Show – one of the largest business-to-business trade shows in North America and the premier trade show serving the media and entertainment industry. The position presents a unique opportunity for an experienced executive with a strong trade show and strategic business background to lead and inspire a team of 30 responsible for executing NAB Show, NAB Show New York and NAB Amplify.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NAB Show New York and the prestigious HBO Camera Assessment Series (CAS) are thrilled to unveil a dynamic new collaboration at this year’s NAB Show New York, which takes place October 24-26 at the Javits Center. On October 25, attendees will gain access to screen The CAS, which is a meticulous exploration of the cinematic storytelling potential of today's leading cameras. The follow-up session, The Making of The HBO Camera Assessment Test (CAS) Seminar, takes place October 26 at the Cine+Live Lab on the NAB Show New York show floor. For the first time, in celebration of the series' 10th anniversary, the creators will publicly share their insights and the journey behind making the assessment series.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NAB Show New York will shine a spotlight on creativity, innovation and collaboration, announcing the winner and full contest review of “Empire State of Mind presented by Bamboo.” This first-of-its-kind photo contest is seeking the next great photographer for a chance to direct a photoshoot on the streets of New York City with social media influencer and expert strategist Avori Henderson, shoot her next merch drop, speak at NAB Show New York and win $4000.