Belarus rarely appears in the Western media, and when it does, the story usually does not go beyond the old trope of ‘Europe’s last dictatorship’. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Western views on Belarus have diverged. For some it is an oasis of stability in a fractured region, while for others, it is a country in jeopardy and soon to become the Kremlin’s next target. Some applaud progress within the Belarusian political system and society while others see only stagnation.

This expert roundtable, to be held soon after the Belarusian local parliamentary elections, aims to disentangle these contradictory views by highlighting the key political trends to watch in Belarus.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Disputes between international companies and national governments commonly arise in the extractive industry where high expectations from producer countries often run alongside emotive issues of ‘ownership’ and ‘exploitation’. In 2013, Chatham House published the report Conflict and Coexistence in the Extractives Industries, examining the rising occurrence of long-running and expensive company-government disputes. Continuing the conversation, the speakers will share their personal insights regarding doing business in Africa's oil and gas sector and preparing for crisis situations. They will outline why they believe the effective management of any crisis is critical to achieving an early settlement and why arbitration is the best formal mechanism for resolving disputes in Africa. They will also discuss what the preconditions of success are, and how companies must adjust to new commercial and political realities when engaging with national companies. 

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

In 2012, Kenya joined the swathe of East African countries with recent significant oil and gas discoveries. Long-established as a regional leader in terms of economic growth, foreign investment and technological innovation, Kenya's leaders are now assessing how to establish an effective policy framework to manage oil revenues while at the same time managing the expectations of its citizens.  

At this event, the panel will discuss how transparency and accountability can be strengthened as Kenya moves to become an oil-producing nation. This event will mark the UK launch of a report by the Kenyan Civil Society Platform on Oil and Gas, entitled Setting the Agenda for the Development of Kenya's Oil and Gas Resources.

LIVE STREAM: This event will be live streamed. The live stream will be made available at 12:00 BST on Wednesday 8 October 2014.

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION IS CLOSED.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses the global response to illegal logging and the related trade.

The Indonesian government has taken a number of important steps to tackle illegal logging and the associated trade, most notably with the ratification of the Indonesia–EU FLEGT voluntary partnership agreement in 2014. The process of negotiating this agreement has contributed to the introduction of a national timber legality verification system (SVLK), clarification of the relevant legal framework and significantly improved engagement with stakeholders in the forest sector. There have also been important developments in recognizing indigenous peoples’ tenure rights to forest land and resources.

However, implementation and enforcement challenges remain. In particular, progress is hampered by a poorly functioning decentralized governance system, persistent corruption and insufficient transparency of information.

The private sector has responded positively, with growing awareness of the issue of illegal logging. While uptake of voluntary legality verification has recently declined, with the need for this now circumvented by the introduction of the SVLK, the area of forest certified as being managed sustainably increased in 2012.

An analysis of data on timber production and consumption suggests that illegal logging has decreased since 2000, and the findings of the expert perceptions survey tend to confirm this for the period 2010 to 2013. In part, these findings reflect a shift towards plantations and away from natural forest harvesting. However, legal ambiguity over the permitting process for forest conversion may mean that levels of illegality are higher than these data suggest.

Building on the government’s response to illegal logging will require effective implementation of the SVLK including addressing identified shortcomings. Improved land-use planning to support effective control and monitoring of forest conversion is also needed. Increased resources and training for enforcement officials are required, while efforts to tackle corruption in the sector should be stepped up. The government should clarify the rights of indigenous peoples through concrete actions such as developing clear processes for mapping and registering their land claims.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses the global response to illegal logging and the related trade.

The Brazilian government has made slow progress in tackling illegal logging and associated trade since the previous Chatham House assessment, in 2010. Illegality, corruption and fraud remain widespread in the forest sector, despite a relatively strong legal framework. Considerable efforts have been made to improve law enforcement in the sector but these have been hampered by poor coordination between the relevant government agencies, limited resources and inadequate penalties. At the same time, attempts to involve a range of stakeholders in policy discussions and decision-making have stalled.

The private sector’s response to illegal logging is perceived to be weak, despite the reasonably high uptake of sustainability certification schemes. Initiatives are under way aimed at promoting a legal and sustainable market for timber within Brazil, with the engagement of the private sector. However, such undertakings are modest given that the majority of the country’s timber production is consumed domestically.

Considerable investment in systems to monitor timber and revenue flows is required to tackle fraud, while the regulation of sawmills needs to be tightened to reduce the scope for the laundering of illegal timber. The imposition of appropriate sanctions and ensuring the collection of financial penalties could help to fill the gap in resources that is impeding effective enforcement.

Clarification of the regulatory framework is needed – in particular, those regulations related to the fiscal regime for the forest sector – as is the simplification of the processes for approving forest management plans. The latter is a priority if smallholders are to be able to engage in legal and sustainable forest management. An extensive programme of outreach and training is a prerequisite for ensuring such engagement. Finally, efforts to promote legal timber on the domestic market should be intensified and expanded.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses the global response to illegal logging and the related trade. 

The Ghanaian government has taken a number of important steps to reduce illegal logging and related trade, most notably with the signing of the Ghana–EU voluntary partnership agreement in 2009. This agreement has prompted improved multi-stakeholder dialogue within the sector as well as a process of legal reform. Considerable effort has also been put into the development of a timber legality assurance system, which has been successfully piloted. However, a number of enforcement and administrative challenges remain, particularly in relation to tenure and land and resource rights, as well as broader governance challenges including corruption.

Awareness of the issue of illegal logging has improved among the private sector, and the area of natural forest that is verified as legally compliant has increased considerably in recent years. However illegal practices remain widespread in the country. Illegal chainsaw milling is prevalent, predominantly supplying the domestic market. Illegality is also an issue in supply chains for export, albeit at a lower level. Trade data discrepancies indicate that illegal trade is a problem, in particular for tropical logs, and there is a lack of clarity over the legality of many logging permits.

A key challenge for the country is its declining resource base. The forest sector has shrunk considerably over the last 15 years as a result of this, and the situation looks set to worsen. Wood-balance estimates indicate that timber consumption considerably exceeds sustainable harvesting levels. 

In order to make further progress in tackling illegal logging, the process of legal reform and efforts to improve enforcement need to continue. Priorities include: a review of fiscal policies for the sector; improvements to land administration; completion of the conversion process of logging rights; and implementation of the legality assurance system across the country. Efforts must also continue to address the challenge of illegal chainsaw milling, which will require a range of approaches from legal reform to developing alternative livelihood strategies. 

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses the global response to illegal logging and the related trade. 

The government of Lao PDR has taken a number of steps to reduce illegal logging and associated trade. Most notably, it has made progress towards negotiations with the EU on a voluntary partnership agreement (VPA). This has prompted the establishment of a multi-stakeholder steering committee and a technical working group and the revision of several land and forestry laws to include provisions related to the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan.

However, significant implementation and enforcement challenges remain. The legal framework is unclear and, at times, contradictory. Implementation by central and local governments is inconsistent, and internal mechanisms to oversee government decisions are limited. Moreover, enforcement capacity is weak and there is a lack of transparency. The available evidence suggests that illegal practices are widespread in the forest sector.

Awareness of the issue of illegal logging has improved, including in the private sector. The area of natural forest certified under the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) scheme has been gradually increasing in recent years. However, a key challenge for the Lao forest sector is pressure on forest resources from agricultural plantations, mineral extraction and infrastructure development.

In order to make further progress in tackling illegal logging, the government should push ahead with preparations for the VPA negotiations, ensuring that the lead agencies are appropriately engaged and resourced to implement a credible dialogue process. Data on the allocation and management of forest resources should be systematically collected and made available to the public in order to enable effective forest monitoring. In addition, accountability mechanisms, including anti-corruption strategies, should be clearly defined and implemented by all relevant ministries to ensure that forest resources are exploited legally and for the benefit of the country. 

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses the global response to illegal logging and the related trade. 

This assessment of the extent of illegal logging in Cameroon and the response to this issue suggests that progress has stalled since 2010. The reform of the legislative framework for the forest sector has yet to be completed; and while there have been improvements in the availability of forestry information, there remain many gaps. Furthermore, the principle of transparency has yet to be broadly accepted within the government. Enforcement is weak and information management systems are deemed inadequate. Most important, corruption remains widespread and the political will needed to drive change is felt to be lacking.

While there is evidence of progress in the private sector – the area of forests with legality verification and certification has increased – illegal activities are rife throughout the forest sector. Half of all timber production is estimated to come from the informal artisanal sector – mainly supplying the domestic market. However, illegal activities are also common in supply chains for export: timber originating from ‘small permits’ and sales of standing volume permits is thought to be particularly problematic. This is of particular concern, as the supply of timber from such permits is expected to increase owing to the growing pressure on forests from other sectors.

Since 2000 trade has shifted away from sensitive markets: the EU market’s significance as a destination for Cameroon’s exports of timber-sector products has decreased, while China’s significance has increased enormously. This has important implications for strategies on how best to tackle illegal logging in Cameroon.

In order to make further progress, markets for legal timber need to continue to be developed in key consumer countries – which, in the case of Cameroon, are now both the EU and China. Within Cameroon, further analysis of the political economy of the forest sector is required. Attempts to tackle corruption should be reinforced, and this would be facilitated by examining the experience of anti-corruption efforts elsewhere in the world. Further improvements to transparency are needed; the establishment of a new independent observer will be important in achieving this goal.

The next stages of legal reform will require broad consultation among stakeholders, in particular small-scale producers as well as local communities and indigenous peoples. Efforts to promote a legal domestic market should be intensified, including more extensive training and outreach for small-scale producers and processors. Finally, to improve enforcement efforts, continued investment in the training of enforcement agents and the provision of adequate resources are required.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses the global response to illegal logging and the related trade. 

There has been limited progress in tackling illegal logging and related trade in Malaysia since 2010. Widespread problems remain, particularly in the state of Sarawak. There are high levels of deforestation throughout the country: expansion of timber, pulp and agricultural plantations (including oil palm and rubber) is the main driver of forest loss.

Forest policy-making in Malaysia involves both the federal and state governments, but the states have prerogative rights to develop their own policies on land and forests. This poses challenges, not least since governance of the forest sector varies quite significantly from one region of the country to another.

The government has been negotiating a Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) with the EU since 2007. Negotiations stalled for a number of years but resumed in 2012 without the participation of Sarawak. Concerns remain among stakeholders about the limited recognition of indigenous peoples’ rights by the government, as well as about corruption and the lack of transparency.

Awareness of illegal logging and related trade is increasing in the private sector, although the area of natural forest concessions certified as being under sustainable production remained virtually unchanged during the period 2008–12.

Asia is the major export market destination for Malaysia’s timber products. However, both the US and the EU import significant volumes of wood-based products from Malaysia too.

The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) has recently stepped up investigating corruption in the forest sector. In Sarawak, an intensified focus on combatting illegal logging could signal a turning point for the state’s forest sector.

In order to build on its response to illegal logging and related trade to date, the Malaysian government should fully engage with the voluntary partnership agreement process and improve multi-stakeholder participation. Transparency in decisions about forest allocation needs to be significantly improved and greater recognition accorded to the rights of indigenous peoples.

More concerted efforts are required to tackle high-level corruption – for example, through strengthening the MACC. At the same time, the government should consider options for an independent monitor for the forest sector as a means of improving forest governance.

The aim of the meeting is to identify ways to improve monitoring of illegal logging and the trade in illegal timber. Building on the experiences of Chatham House’s project Indicators of Illegal Logging, the discussions will focus on the data needs of particular end users and methodological challenges for estimating levels of illegality. The potential for improved coordination and collaboration between global efforts to monitor trade flows will also be considered.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

This event is part of a series of illegal logging update meetings that will bring together more than 250 participants from civil society, industry and governments from around the world. 

Download the presentations from the event on the Illegal Logging Portal.

Summary

The Guidelines for Good Governance in Emerging Oil and Gas Producers 2016, compiled under the auspices of the New Petroleum Producers Discussion Group, review common challenges facing emerging producer countries in the phases of exploration, recent discoveries and early production. The following are the Guidelines’ broad recommendations for addressing these challenges.

• International best practice may not be appropriate in the case of emerging producers in the oil and gas sector. Instead, the aim should be for more appropriate practice, taking account of the national context; more effective practice, in the interests of achieving rapid results; and better practice, allowing incremental improvements to governance.
• Government policy should be guided by a clear vision for the development of the country and a strategic view of how the petroleum sector will deliver that vision. 
• In order to attract the most qualified oil company to a country with an unproven resource base, the host government can invest in geological data, strengthen its prequalification criteria and ensure transparency. It should also plan for success and anticipate the implications of hydrocarbon discoveries in its tax code, and be robust through declining oil and gas prices.
• Licensing is a key mechanism whereby government can reap early revenues and maximize long-term national benefits. Government must ensure that it simplifies both negotiations and tax structures to mitigate knowledge asymmetries with oil companies.
• Government and industry must engage and share information with affected communities to manage local expectations regarding the petroleum sector and build trust. 
• In emerging producers, budgets for local content may be small and timelines for building capacity short. In this context, the focus should be on the potential for repeat use of any local capacity developed. 
• Meaningful participation of national organizations in resource development is a central objective of many emerging producers. Capacity is needed to enable this, and the Guidelines examine where and how best to develop that capacity.
• Incremental improvements to the governance of the national petroleum sector will allow emerging producers to increase accountability. The focus in this regard should be on building up capacity in checks and balances as resources become proven.

Perhaps it will be second time lucky. At the end of April, Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will elect a new party leader to follow in the footsteps of Angela Merkel. An emergency party congress has been summoned to do that after the surprise resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel’s chosen successor.

The plan is to leave the decision on who will be the CDU candidate for chancellor at the next election until after Germany’s EU presidency concludes in December. So Merkel will keep her job until 2021, and the new leader will have to learn to live with her.

The three leading candidates are Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz and Norbert Röttgen, all from the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. Two of the three – Merz and Röttgen – were sacked by Merkel from their former jobs. They have not forgotten. Only Armin Laschet, currently CDU leader in North Rhine-Westphalia and state premier, can be described as a Merkel loyalist, true to her centrist mantra.

He is the man to beat, having teamed up with Jens Spahn, the 39-year-old health minister, who is popular with party conservatives. Spahn will run as his deputy, so the team straddles the left-right divide in the party. But the contest still seems set to be a bitter battle between pro- and anti-Merkel factions that could leave the party badly split.

After nearly 15 years as chancellor, and 18 years as CDU leader, Merkel remains the most popular politician in Germany. In spite of criticism that she lacks vision, her caution and predictability appear to be just what most German voters like.

But her term in office has also seen the steady shrinking of the centre ground in German politics, with the rise of the environmentalist Green party and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at the expense of the centre-right CDU and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).

The battle for the soul of the CDU is between those who think Merkel has been too left-wing, and want a more conservative leader to win back AfD voters, and those who believe that the CDU must stay in the centre, and prepare for a future coalition with the Greens. Merz is seen as the former, Laschet and Röttgen the latter.

Unless Laschet emerges as the clear winner in April, the leadership contest is likely to leave Germany sorely distracted by domestic politics just as it takes over the EU presidency in the second half of the year. Instead of Merkel having a triumphant international swansong on the EU stage, she could be battling to protect her inheritance at home.

The one area on which all three leadership candidates seem to agree is foreign policy: they all want Germany to take more leadership and responsibility, and for the European Union to play a bigger role in security, defence and international affairs. They are all Atlanticists, but critical of Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ stance. All are on the record criticizing the chancellor – at least tacitly – for not having a more vigorous foreign policy.

There the similarity ends.

On the right, the 64-year-old Merz is both the most conservative and the most popular with the party grassroots. He fell out with the chancellor when she took over his job as CDU leader in parliament in 2002. He quit politics to become a corporate lawyer (and a millionaire), but never lost his political ambition. He is an economic liberal but socially conservative, a strong critic of Merkel’s migration policy and her lack of clear leadership. Critics say he is a man of the past, and not a team player.

On the EU, he believes Germany is ‘leaving too much to the French’. If France and Germany cannot agree on financial matters, he said at the London School of Economics in February, they should instead forge a stronger EU industrial policy focused on creating more ‘European champions’.

Laschet, the Merkel loyalist, is four years younger, and from the left of the party. Like Merz, he is a former member of the European parliament. In 2015, he defended Merkel’s open border policy to accept refugees stranded in the Balkans. On Russia, however, he is more critical, calling for a new effort to re-engage with Vladimir Putin. Most recently, at the Munich Security Conference, he called for stronger Franco-German relations, and more support for the eurozone reforms proposed by Emmanuel Macron.

As CDU leader in North Rhine-Westphalia, Laschet has the strongest power base. He earned his political spurs there by winning the last state election in 2017, in contrast to Röttgen, who lost to the SPD and Greens five years earlier.

Röttgen, chairman of the Bundestag foreign affairs committee, is the surprise candidate. Once a Merkel favourite, they fell out when she sacked him as environment minister after he lost the North Rhine-Westphalia election. By throwing his hat in the ring, he has forced it to become an open contest. He is independent-minded and outspoken, but not as bitterly hostile to the chancellor as Merz, so he could be a compromise candidate.

Laschet is clearly the man Merkel would find it easiest to live with. The decision will be taken by a party congress, not a grassroots ballot, which gives him a better chance. But Merz is the most eloquent orator and seen as the best campaigner. The challenge for party members is whether they believe it is better to swing right and squeeze the AfD, or stick to the centre to hold onto voters tempted by the Greens, who have replaced the SPD as the second-most popular party in Germany.

The race is wide open. So is the future of the CDU. The only prediction one can make with much certainty is that as long as Merkel remains chancellor, any successor will struggle to get out of her shadow.

Please note this an online-only event.

Norway is one of the few European countries that remains outside of the European Union. After the country’s population rejected the prospect of joining the EU twice, Norway’s relationship with the Union has been based on its membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), alongside Iceland and Liechtenstein.

The ‘Norway Model’ was often mentioned in the run up to the Brexit vote as a possible basis for Britain’s future relationship with the bloc, not least because it offers the least disruption to the current arrangement. Equally, Norway is not subject to the EU fisheries policy - an anticipated major issue in the next phase of Brexit talks. Nor is it part of the EU Customs Union.

Even though Prime Minister Johnson has now ruled out the type of deep economic and regulatory integration with the EU that Norway enjoys through its EEA membership, the country’s experience can still offer valuable lessons for the UK as it prepares to exit the transition period at the end of 2020.

In this session, the speaker will share Norway’s experience as a long-standing EEA member and discuss the challenges of engaging with the EU from the outside. What lessons can Norway offer the UK ahead of the negotiations on the future of UK-EU relations? What are the limits of its current arrangement with the EU? And is there any appetite among the Norwegian population to revisit it?

This half-day strategic workshop, organized by Chatham House and E3G, brought together key climate experts, policymakers and influential actors, especially in Europe, for a focused and facilitated discussion on the roles, risks and potentials of negative emissions technologies (NETs). 

An interactive scenario exercise will be conducted, drawing on a climate simulation tool developed by Climate Interactive, to consider the potential roles and risks of different NETs deployments to meet the Paris Agreement targets and to consider the international co-operation required to manage the pathway to net-zero emissions. Participants will explore the political opportunities, discuss different scenarios and risks and identify areas of interventions and collective action.

The meeting is part of a series of events being held at Chatham House as part of London Climate Action Week (LCAW).

The pressure of the coronavirus pandemic is adding to a widely held misconception that trade in food products is bad for the environment due to the associated ‘food miles’ – the carbon footprint of agricultural products transported over long distances.

This concept, developed by large retailers a decade ago, is often invoked as a rationale for restricting trade and choosing locally-produced food over imports. Consuming local food may seem sensible at first glance as it reduces the carbon footprint of goods and generates local employment. 

However, this assumption ignores the emissions produced during the production, processing or storage stages which often dwarf transport emissions. Other avenues to address the climate change impact of trade are more promising.

Demystifying food emissions

In the US, for example, food items travel more than 8,000 km on average before reaching the consumer. Yet transport only accounts for 11 per cent of total emissions with 83 per cent – mostly nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions – occurring at the production stage.

US Department of Agriculture data on energy use in the American food system echoes this finding, showing that processing, packaging, and selling of food represent ten times the energy used to transport food.

In practice, it may be preferable from an environmental perspective to consume lamb, onion or dairy products transported by sea because the lower emissions generated at the production stage offset those resulting from transport. Similarly, growing tomatoes under heated greenhouses in Sweden is often more emissions-intensive than importing open-grown ones from Southern Europe.

Seasonality also matters. British apples placed in storage for ten months leads to twice the level of emissions as that of South American apples sea-freighted to the UK. And the type of transport is also important as, overall, maritime transport generates 25 to 250 times less emissions than trucks, and air freight generates on average five times more emissions than road transport.

Therefore, air-freighted Kenyan beans have a much larger carbon footprint than those produced in the UK, but crossing Europe by truck to import Italian wine might generate more emissions than transatlantic shipments.

Finally, one should take into account the last leg of transport. A consumer driving more than 10 km to purchase 1 kg of fresh produce will generate proportionately more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than air-freighting 1 kg of produce from Kenya.

Shifting consumption towards local foods may reduce GHG emissions in sectors with relatively low emissions intensities but, when non-carbon dioxide emissions are taken into account, this is more often the exception than the rule.

Under these circumstances, preventing trade is an inefficient and expensive way of reducing GHG emissions. Bureau et al. for example, calculate that a global tariff maintaining the volume of trade at current levels until 2030 may reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 3.5 per cent. However, this would be roughly seven times less than the full implementation of the Paris Agreement and cost equivalent to the current GDP of Brazil or 1.8 per cent of world GDP.

By preventing an efficient use of resources, such restrictions would also undermine the role of trade in offsetting possible climate-induced production shortfalls in some parts of the world and allowing people to access food when they can’t produce it themselves.

Reducing the climate footprint of trade

This is not to say that nothing should be done to tackle transport emissions. The OECD estimates that international trade-related freight accounted for over 5 per cent of total global fuel emissions with shipping representing roughly half of it, trucks 40 per cent, air 6 per cent and rail 2 per cent. With the projected tripling of freight transport by 2050, emissions from shipping are expected to rise between 50 and 250 per cent.

Furthermore, because of their international nature, these emissions are not covered by the Paris Agreement. Instead the two UN agencies regulating these sectors – the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Maritime Organization – are responsible for reducing these emissions and, so far, significant progress has proven elusive.

Regional or bilateral free trade agreements to further stimulate trade could address this problem by exploiting comparative advantages. Impact assessments of those agreements often point towards increases in GHG emissions due to a boost in trade flows. In the future, such agreements could incorporate – or develop in parallel – initiatives to ensure carbon neutrality by connecting carbon markets among contracting parties or by taxing international maritime and air transport emissions.

Such initiatives could be combined with providing additional preferences in the form of enhanced market access to low-carbon food and healthier food. The EU, as one of the chief proponents of bilateral and regional trade agreements and a leader in promoting a transition to a low-carbon economy could champion such an approach.

This article is part of a series from the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum, designed to promote research and policy recommendations on the future of global trade. It is adapted from the research paper, Delivering Sustainable Food and Land Use Systems: The Role of International Trade, authored by Christophe Bellmann, Bernice Lee and Jonathan Hepburn.