the future

Big plans for the future




the future

The future of 'Star Wars': All the movies and TV shows in development right now

George Lucas’s far, far away galaxy is on the verge of several new beginnings on the big screen and beyond. Here’s a look at all of the different movies and TV shows currently in development.





the future

The future is now. Web 2.0 mashup accessibility

For all of their promise, mashups introduce a number of accessibility and usability problems stemming from inaccessible services, inconsistent keyboard navigation and other issues.




the future

WCAG 2.0 and the future of Web accessibility

IBM interviews Judy Brewer from W3C about the new WCAG 2.0 guidelines and the challenges her group faced in developing the new principles.




the future

2009 IEEE Accessing the Future Conference

A global collaborative exploration for accessibility in the next decade.




the future

FutureSpeak: A Preview of the 2009 IEEE Accessing the Future Conference

First-of-a-kind conference developed to identify the next generation of accessibility challenges—challenges arising from the increasingly pervasive use of technologies such as 3-D Web, online collaboration, shared medical records, and advanced systems for transportation and communication.




the future

Accessing the Future. IBM and IEEE 'boldly go' where no one has gone before...

150 cross-disciplinary leaders from university, government, industry and advocacy organizations came together with IBM and IEEE in July 2009 and generated a list of ten accessibility recommendations to help ensure digital inclusion for current and future generations.




the future

PMC Launches Sound For The Future – A New Scholarship For Audio Graduates

This $5,000 Prize Has Been Established In Conjunction With The Audio Engineering Society Education Foundation.




the future

10/1/17 - No one from the future




the future

Are accountants the future anthropologists of the cyber era?

Are accountants destined to be the anthropologists of the cyber era? Gillian Tett appears to suspect such. Continue reading




the future

Gravitational Lensing, Interstellar Cinematography, and the Future of Magical Warfare in Space

[Image: An example of gravitational lens effects, via Wikipedia.] Over at WIRED, Daniel Oberhaus, author of the recent book Extraterrestrial Languages, takes a look at some proposals from NASA’s Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) program. “Among this year’s NIAC grants,” Oberhaus writes, “are proposals to turn a lunar crater into a giant radio dish, to develop … Continue reading "Gravitational Lensing, Interstellar Cinematography, and the Future of Magical Warfare in Space"




the future

Unitec Chooses IBM Cloud to Support the Future of Learning

Unitec Institute of Technology, one of New Zealand’s largest tertiary institutions, is consolidating its core IT infrastructure onto IBM Cloud to facilitate a world class learning experience for its students.




the future

HCF innovates for the future by investing in IBM’s technology portfolio today

HCF and IBM (NYSE: IBM) today jointly announced a multi-million dollar deal that will see them working together in Australia to continue to transform HCF’s IT systems, streamline processes and deliver a tailored experience for its members.




the future

A slice of the past, preserved for the future

Did one of the most difficult things I’ve ever done: I cut up my mother’s wedding dress. Now, Mom always *loathed* her wedding dress. Her mother talked her into a waltz length, ballerina-y dress, and she never enjoyed looking at her wedding pictures. She put it in her cedar chest and never looked at it. […]




the future

SAN HOLO – THE FUTURE (FEAT. JAMES VINCENT MCMORROW)

musicisart magazine SAN HOLO – THE FUTURE (FEAT. JAMES VINCENT MCMORROW)

Producer San Holo, AKA Sander van Dijck, creates ballad like electronic music that brings a listener on a journey full of emotion. San Holo is most known for his hit single ‘Light‘, which reached over 151 thousand likes on Soundcloud. SAN HOLO – THE LIGHT || San Holo’s latest single ‘The Future‘ features the smooth Irish vocals of […]

The post SAN HOLO – THE FUTURE (FEAT. JAMES VINCENT MCMORROW) appeared first on musicisart magazine.




the future

Building the future; shaping our social work identity

Building the future; shaping our social work identity newly qualified social worker conference was held on 31 May 2018 in Edinburgh.

Delivered with the University of Edinburgh (in partnership with the Higher Education Heads of Social Work Group), Iriss, SSSC, SASW, Social Work Scotland and the Scottish Government, it provided an opportunity for newly qualified social workers to come together to connect and reconnect.

Viviene Cree introduces the conference, and is followed by a presentation by Jane Johnstone who provides some thought provoking asks of attendees.

Transcript of episode

Music Credit: Make your dream a reality by Scott Holmes




the future

Partnership Working and the Future of Neurological Services - Alliance Scotland Viewpoint | The ALLIANCE



Our latest viewpoint in a series on neurological conditions comes from Gerard Gahagan, Head of Service - Epilesy, Quarriers.




the future

Thinking of the future: Innovations, & developments for social work practice: social media and digital technology for social work practice.

When: Mon Feb 8, 2016

Where: Stirling Court Hotel, University of Stirling
Event Status: confirmed
Event Description: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/thinking-of-the-future-innovations-and-developments-for-social-work-practice-tickets-19249165773



  • http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#event


the future

New net-zero LivingHomes capture the future of sustainable living

Koto Design has teamed up with Plant Prefab to create two new incredible net-zero energy homes. Koto LivingHome 1 and Koto LivingHome 2 are modular homes that incorporate sustainable living systems of the future. Under the ethos of creating great architecture that is more sustainable, the dwellings are powerhouses of energy-efficiency, with passive elements to reduce energy demand and active systems that allow homeowners to reduce electricity consumption through an app.[...]




the future

Disneyland Shanghai's Reopening Is A Sad Look At The Future Of Vacations

By Isaac Cabe  Published: May 07th, 2020 




the future

Beyond Skywalker: What’s the future of Star Wars?

Kathleen Kennedy talks to the Los Angeles Times about what we can expect from Star Wars in the post-Rise of Skywalker world: Kennedy said she plans to make key decisions about the direction of the franchise in the coming weeks. But some things she already knows. While the “Skywalker” saga is ending, the company won’t …




the future

Q&A: What will the future of travel look like?




the future

Daryl Austin: If our recent trip to Hogle Zoo is the future, we’re going to be OK




the future

Refrigerators of the future may be inspired by the weird physics of rubber

A new refrigeration technique harnesses the ability of rubber and other materials to cool down when released from a tight twist.




the future

Will we wear jeans in the future? The costume designer for 'Avenue 5' has thoughts

HBO's "Avenue 5" is set 40 years in the future. Costume designer Suzie Harman's challenge: Figuring out what we'll all be wearing then.




the future

The future of flying remains unclear but at least there is one

The Man Who Pays His Way: The UK is dotted with zombie airports




the future

Is the future of live music a drive-in concert?

A city in Denmark held a drive-in concert, with a musician playing onstage outdoors and concertgoers listening in their cars. Could this happen in California?




the future

David Harbour is using quarantine to plan the future of 'Stranger Things'

"Stranger Things" star David Harbour joins The Times' "Can't Stop Watching" podcast to discuss Hopper in quarantine, Winona Ryder and his inspirations.




the future

Chelsea make two 16-year-old wonderkids transfer targets as Lampard plans for the future



Chelsea boss Frank Lampard is planning for the future this summer as the Blues add two more highly rated youngsters to their list of transfer targets.




the future

Insider: Colts draft Washington QB Jacob Eason in 4th round; is he the QB of the future?

Colts find developmental quarterback on Day 3 of Draft.

       




the future

The future of autonomous delivery may be unfolding in an unlikely place: Suburban Houston

For months now, Nuro’s robotically piloted vehicles have been quietly delivering groceries to restaurants and homes around Houston, the vehicles’ sensors mapping the city as they go.




the future

A blockbuster Facebook office deal is a make-or-break moment for the future of commercial real estate. 3 leasing experts lay out the stakes.

  • Facebook has been in negotiations for months to lease over 700,000 square feet at the Farley Building on Manhattan's West Side. 
  • Office leasing activity in the city has plummeted, giving the blockbuster deal even more importance as a sign of life in a suddenly lethargic market.
  • The coronavirus has spurred a deep downturn in the economy that is already being felt in the city's commercial real-estate market, prompting a big slowdown in leasing activity.  
  • The rapid expansion of tech in recent years has propelled the city's office market. Real estate execs say that Facebook's big deal is a key barometer. 
  • The crisis also raises questions whether tenants will ever occupy office space the same way as companies and their workforces around the world grow familiar with remote work. 
  • Click here for more BI Prime stories.

Leasing activity in New York City's multi-billion-dollar commercial office market has dropped precipitously as the coronavirus has battered the market and raised questions of when — and even if — tenants can return to the workplace in a post-Covid world.

Amid the growing concerns the crisis will smother what had been robust demand for office space, eyes in the city's real estate industry have turned to a pending blockbuster deal on the West Side that could offer a signal of confidence to the market.

Facebook is in talks to take over 700,000 square feet of space in the Farley Building, a block-long property across Eighth Avenue from Penn Station.

"If that deal happens, then this market will be just fine," said Peter Riguardi, the New York area chairman and president of JLL. "If the deal happens but it's renegotiated, it will be fine, but it will be a trend that every tenant can follow. And if it doesn't happen, I would be very concerned about the market."

Read More: Inside the drama over control of the iconic Chrysler Building: A real-estate tycoon and a prestigious college are renegotiating a critical $150 million deal.

Facebook's NYC real-estate footprint

Last year, Facebook signed on for 1.5 million square feet in the Hudson Yards mega-development just west of the Farley Building, taking space in three new office towers at the project.

For months the $600 billion Silicon Valley-based social media giant has been in negotiations for even more space at the nearby Farley Building, whose interior landlord Vornado Realty Trust is redeveloping to include newly built office and retail space.

Vornado had originally expected to complete the deal with Facebook in early March, according to a source familiar with the negotiations. The talks have continued on as the virus pandemic has brought commerce and social life to a virtual halt. The source expected the lease, which will commit Facebook to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in rent for the space over the life of the lease, to soon be completed.

In a conference call with investors and analysts on Tuesday to discuss Vornado's first-quarter earnings, the company's CEO Steve Roth also hinted that the Facebook deal was still on track.

"There's another large tenant that has been rumored to be that we've been in dialogue with," Roth said, not directly naming the company. "That conversation is going forward aggressively and hopefully maybe even almost complete."

Rapid growth in Big Tech leasing before coronavirus

Recent real-estate decisions by Facebook and other tech companies have worried real-estate executives that they may reconsider their footprint after years of dramatic growth. Facebook on Thursday revealed that the bulk of its over 40,000-person workforce will be asked to work remotely for the remainder of the year, a timeline that appears to show the company is using caution in returning to its footprint.

Read More: Neiman Marcus just filed for bankruptcy, and it could mark a major blow to NYC's glitzy Hudson Yards — one of the most expensive mega-malls in US history. Here's why.

Real-estate executives have expressed concern that tenants may become accustomed to offloading a portion or even the bulk of their workforce to a remote-working model, leading them to drastically reduce their office commitments.

At a minimum, the economic upheaval has appeared to spur a newfound sense of caution in tech companies that have grown rapidly in recent years. Alphabet called off negotiations to expand its San Francisco offices by over 2 million square feet in recent weeks, according to a report from The Information.  

Tech has been a big driver of demand for office space

In recent years the tech industry had become one of the most voracious takers of space in the city, helping to push up commercial rents and spur the construction of new office space.

In 2019, tech firms accounted for 24.5% of the 31.6 million square feet of leasing activity in Manhattan, eclipsing the financial industry as the city's biggest space-taking sector for the first time, according to data from the real estate services and brokerage firm CBRE.

In 2010 tech leasing comprised just 4% of the 24.2 million square feet that was leased in the Manhattan market that year, CBRE said.

"Nothing has buoyed the confidence of landlords more in recent years than tech tenants," said Sacha Zarba, a leasing executive at CBRE who specializes in working with tech firms. "It didn't matter where your building was. If it was attractive to tech, you would stand a good chance to lease your space. If that industry retrenches a bit, it removes a big driver of demand."

The Manhattan office market has slowed rapidly in recent weeks as the virus crisis has battered the economy and shut down daily life.

About 844,000 square feet of space was leased in Manhattan in April, according to CBRE, 64% lower than the five-year monthly average. In the first four months of the year, nearly seven million square feet was leased, a decline of 30% for the same period a year ago. 

So far, however, there are signs that tech continues to snap up space.

After scuttling plans to develop a 25,000 person second headquarters space in Long Island City last year, Amazon purchased 424 Fifth Avenue, a former flagship department store for Lord & Taylor, for nearly $1 billion in March. That property totals about 660,000 square feet. Late last year, before the pandemic hit U.S. shores but had flared in China, Amazon also leased 335,000 square feet at 410 Tenth Avenue.

The commitments of major tech companies absorb millions of square feet in the city, but they also help fuel a larger ecosystem of tenants that occupies an even larger footprint. That means that a decrease in the real estate of just a few big tech players could be multiplied across the market as smaller players in the sector follow suit.

"Those big tech firms do a fantastic job of training and credentialing tech talent on the city," said Matt Harrigan, a co-founder of Company, a space incubator at 335 Madison Avenue that provides offices and community for both startups and more established tech firms. "Google and Facebook spin off talent who start or join other tech ventures that take space. That's what's so important about having the large presence of those companies here."

Have a tip? Contact Daniel Geiger at dgeiger@businessinsider.com or via encrypted messaging app Signal at +1 (646) 352-2884, or Twitter DM at @dangeiger79. You can also contact Business Insider securely via SecureDrop.

SEE ALSO: What to expect when you're back in the office: 7 real-estate experts break down what the transition will look like, and why the workplace may never be the same

SEE ALSO: Major tenants are delaying big leases in NYC as they re-think their office space needs for the post-coronavirus world

SEE ALSO: As WeWork and flex-space rivals stumble, 18 million square feet of space in NYC is at risk. Here's what that means for the real-estate market.

SEE ALSO: BI Prime Edit in Viking Neiman Marcus just filed for bankruptcy, and it could mark a major blow to NYC's glitzy Hudson Yards — one of the most expensive mega-malls in US history. Here's why.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: We tested a machine that brews beer at the push of a button




the future

Blackstone's real-estate dealmakers; the investment banker of the future

 

 

Welcome to Wall Street Insider, where we take you behind the scenes of the finance team's biggest scoops and deep dives from the past week. 

If you aren't yet a subscriber to Wall Street Insider, you can sign up here.

For certain corners of Wall Street, dealmaking is happening faster than ever. While M&A activity has plunged, bankers primed to help companies navigate the financial fallout, especially restructuring and debt-raising specialists, have been crushed with demand.

Alex Morrell took a look at how top bankers — known for putting in long hours curating a white-glove experience for clients — are finding they can still provide service from afar. It turns out, when you take away the time spent at airports and restaurants, and when Zoom calls can be arranged in minutes, things can move at lightning speed. 

Read the full story here: 

'Stunning efficiency': How remote dealmaking could mean a permanent lifestyle change for some bankers

Meanwhile, it's been a tale of two approaches to job cuts in recent days. On Tuesday, Airbnb CEO and cofounder Brian Chesky emailed staff about sweeping layoffs that were impacting 1,900 people, highlighting where the company will focus in the future and what exit packages employees should expect. You can read the full email here

Over at WeWork, things have been rolling out gradually. Meghan Morris and Dakin Campbell wrote about a leaked WeWork document that revealed a huge reorg under way for people who manage its buildings. Here's how the new structure works — and the complex process for staff to save their jobs. Alex Nicoll and Meghan also reported that Flatiron School has slashed at least 100 jobs, building on their scoop last week that WeWork started making cuts in several key departments, with IT alone losing some 200 jobs. 

Keep reading for a preview of changes in store for Bloomberg terminals, a rundown of Blackstone's giant commercial real estate business, and a look at how PIMCO stocked up with $5.5 billion for private-credit strategies since the beginning of the year.

Have a safe and healthy weekend, 

Meredith 


Inside Blackstone's massive CRE business

Blackstone is the largest commercial real-estate investor in the world, with $160 billion in investor capital. Alex Nicoll chatted with Blackstone real estate's three heads of acquisition, and its head of debt origination, to learn more about their business. 

They spoke about some of their most interesting deals, and why Blackstone's global scale and thematic investing style is a huge advantage. 

Read the full story here: 

Meet the 4 dealmakers driving Blackstone's $325 billion commercial real estate portfolio. They walked us through how they're thinking about opportunities in the downturn.


A Facebook office deal is a key test 

The coronavirus crisis has thrown into question whether tenants will ever occupy office space the same way again as companies and workforces around the world grow accustomed to remote work.

Facebook has been in negotiations for months to lease over 700,000 square feet at the Farley Building on Manhattan's West Side. The rapid expansion of tech in recent years has propelled the city's office market, and Dan Geiger spoke with real-estate execs who laid out why Facebook's deal is a key barometer. 

Read the full story here:

A blockbuster Facebook office deal is a make-or-break moment for the future of commercial real estate. 3 leasing experts lay out the stakes.


Coming soon to a terminal near you

As remote work becomes a long-term reality, a technology staple of Wall Street is in store for a makeover. Mark Flatman, global head of core terminal at Bloomberg, told Dan DeFrancesco that the financial technology giant is considering ways to revamp its ubiquitous terminal.

One particular area of focus for Flatman and his team has been screen space, as many customers aren't working with the typical four-screen display. Another area that has gotten increased attention is mobile, where usage has jumped. 

Read the full story here: 

Bloomberg is eyeing big changes to its iconic terminals to make work-from-home easier. The exec leading its strategy laid out how he's rethinking screen space and mobile features.


A new pile of cash for private credit

Industry observers expect a surge in interest in specialized credit shops that have proven to be winners in distressed situations. And Bradley Saacks revealed how PIMCO has tapped into that demand, with sources saying that the fixed-income giant has raised $5.5 billion in private-credit strategies since the beginning of the year.

PIMCO's nearly $4 billion Tactical Opportunities fund lost roughly 15% in March, but was able to avoid forced selling, sources tell Business Insider, and even added to positions in the month. That fund alone has raised $250 million — and is just one of several private-credit funds that PIMCO has raised money for.

Read the full story here: 

PIMCO has raised $5.5 billion for private-credit funds despite a hellacious March — and is telling investors it's the best opportunity in a decade


A tax break for big companies with heavy debt

As Michael Rapoport writes, a tax break for debt-ladened companies, part of the CARES Act enacted in March, cuts their tax bills by allowing them to deduct more of the interest they pay on their debt. 

But some tax experts are concerned that the tax break is too indiscriminate: In addition to helping troubled companies, they say, boosting tax deductions on interest payments is going to give a lift to companies that aren't being hurt by the pandemic, or whose problems have nothing to do with the coronavirus. 

Read the full story here:

A $13 billion tax break tucked into the coronavirus stimulus plan will save some big companies tens of millions — even if they aren't ailing. Here's how it works and who could benefit.


On the move

Dakin Campbell reported that Goldman Sachs has hired the distressed-situations and bankruptcy expert Kurt Hoffman as a managing director in a business that handles one-off loans for clients. The move comes just as industries battered by the economic shutdown are in need of emergency financing. 


Investing and hedge funds

Careers

Real estate 

Fintech and e-commerce

 

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: How waste is dealt with on the world's largest cruise ship




the future

Books are key to the future: an interview with Wade and Cheryl Willis Hudson

We hear a lot about diversity and inclusion these days, often as it relates to books for young readers. Just as publishing for children and teens has evolved over the years, so has adults’ perception of youth and what is appropriate for them.




the future

strataconf: The Future Is Graph Databases http://t.co/BVxOZwtoKS A Conversation with @EmilEifrem, founder of @Neo4J #strataconf

strataconf: The Future Is Graph Databases http://t.co/BVxOZwtoKS A Conversation with @EmilEifrem, founder of @Neo4J #strataconf




the future

The Future of NATO: A Strong Alliance in an Unpredictable World

Members Event

19 June 2014 - 11:00am to 12:00pm

Chatham House, London

Event participants

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Secretary-General, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
Chair: Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House 

In September, the UK will host a summit on the future of NATO. The Wales Summit will chart the course of the alliance as it deals with the long-term implications of Russia’s policy towards Ukraine and prepares to complete its longest combat mission in Afghanistan. The secretary-general will outline the decisions that need to be taken to ensure that the alliance remains fit to face the future. He will set out NATO’s readiness action plan, address the debate on declining defence budgets, and explain how NATO intends to turn a new page in Afghanistan. 

Members Events Team




the future

The Future of NATO: US and UK Perspectives

Invitation Only Research Event

18 July 2014 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Chatham House, London

Event participants

Douglas E Lute, Ambassador, Permanent Representative for the United States to NATO
Sir Adam Thomson KCMG, UK Permanent Representative to NATO
Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

2014 is a pivotal year for NATO. Prompted by transatlantic defence austerity, Russian activities in Ukraine, and the conclusion of NATO’s major operations in Afghanistan, allies are raising important questions about NATO’s future in the run-up to the summit in September. 

At this event, representatives from two of the closest partners in the alliance will explore challenges and potential strategies for NATO.

Rory Kinane

+44 (0) 20 7314 3650




the future

Transatlantic Strategy Group on the Future of US Global Leadership: Responding to a Revanchist Russia

Invitation Only Research Event

12 September 2014 - 8:45am to 5:00pm

Chatham House, London

The situation in Ukraine remains in flux and despite Europe and the US toughening sanctions on Russia, President Putin continues to increase the scope of Russia’s involvement in the conflict between the Ukrainian government and the separatists. It remains unclear how far Putin is willing to go, what his broader regional ambitions are, and what he will do if forced further into a corner by Western actions. In this time of uncertainty and instability it is therefore vital to assess how the transatlantic partners should respond to this increasingly precarious situation. 

At this all-day event, the group will discuss how US policy towards Russia is changing, what this means for Europe and, subsequently, how Europe should respond. 

Attencance at this event is by invitation only.

The event is part of the Transatlantic Strategy Group on the Future of US Global Leadership run jointly with the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Over the course of a year, this group will come together to discuss how US policy is changing on key issues and the implications for Europe. This project is supported by the Fritz Thyssen Stiftung.

Department/project

Rory Kinane

+44 (0) 20 7314 3650




the future

Close but Distracted: The Future of the UK-US Partnership

Invitation Only Research Event

16 October 2014 - 9:00am to 10:30am

Chatham House, London

In an open podcast recorded following the event, Robin Niblett discussed the state of the transatlantic relationship with International New York Times London Bureau Chief Steven Erlanger, former UK defence secretary Liam Fox and former Foreign Affairs Committee chair Mike Gapes.

The roundtable was held under the Chatham House Rule.

 

While revelations about the activities of the NSA and GCHQ confirmed the depth of cooperation between the US and the UK over intelligence, the debate over the UK’s membership of the EU and difficulties in coordinating a response to the Syria crisis have raised tensions between policy-makers in Washington and London. With the two countries now facing an array of shared international challenges – not least in Ukraine, Afghanistan and Iraq – this roundtable will examine the current state of the transatlantic relationship.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule




the future

Transatlantic Strategy Group on the Future of US Global Leadership: Transatlantic Security Policy Towards a Changing Middle East

Invitation Only Research Event

6 February 2015 - 8:45am to 4:30pm

Residence of the British Ambassador to France, Paris

With the Middle East in chaos and the future of many states increasingly uncertain, there is a large amount of attention as to how policy-makers in Europe and the US should respond. In particular, many in Europe are unsure of long-term US policy in light of competing American priorities, budgetary constraints and a public adverse to committing further resources abroad. In this context, it is important that European and American policy-makers understand each other’s positions.

At this all-day event, a group of experts will discuss how US policy towards the Middle East is changing, what this means for Europe and, subsequently, how Europe should respond. 

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

The workshop is held as part of the Transatlantic Strategy Group on the Future of US Global Leadership run jointly with the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Over the course of a year, this group will discuss how US policy is changing on key issues and the implications for Europe. This project is supported by the Fritz Thyssen Foundation, with support for this event provided by the Delegation of Strategic Affairs of the French Ministry of Defence and the British Embassy in Paris.

Event attributes

External event

Department/project




the future

Transatlantic Strategy Group on the Future of US Global Leadership: Global Institutions and the Economy of the Future

Invitation Only Research Event

10 June 2015 - 8:45am to 4:30pm

Bertelsmann Foundation, Berlin, Germany

Europe and the United States have dominated global institutions for over 70 years. However, as the emerging markets take up a greater share of the global economy it is becoming increasingly difficult for the transatlantic powers to maintain the current system. This event will examine the changes needed in order to avoid a collapse of the current system.

The workshop is held as part of the Transatlantic Strategy Group on the Future of US Global Leadership run jointly with the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Over the course of a year, this group will discuss how US policy is changing on key issues and the implications for Europe. This project is supported by the Fritz Thyssen Foundation, with support for this event provided by the Bertelsmann Foundation. 

Event attributes

External event

Department/project

US and Americas Programme




the future

The Future of US Global Leadership: Implications for Europe, Canada and Transatlantic Cooperation

10 May 2016

As the United States’ international engagement changes, Canada and Europe should increase coordination with it to prevent power vacuums from emerging.

Xenia Wickett

Former Head, US and the Americas Programme; Former Dean, The Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs

Rory Kinane

Former Manager, US and the Americas Programme

2016-05-06-future-us-global-leadership.jpg

Marine One, carrying US President Barack Obama, departs the White House on 26 August 2014, Washington DC. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • The United States’ transatlantic allies need to appreciate how its global leadership is changing and what this means for their interests, and respond accordingly. Notions of US decline have been overstated, but the country is not going to play the same international role in the future that it has previously.
  • As the United States’ international engagement changes, Canada and Europe should increase coordination with it to prevent power vacuums from emerging. The transatlantic allies should work together to build greater links at all stages of the policy process, from perceptions of threat, prioritization, analysis, threat definition and policy formation to implementation and action.  
  • As the United States’ capabilities adapt to its changed circumstances and role, so too must those of its allies. This adjustment must go far beyond military aspects to enhancing diplomatic, energy, economic, intelligence and other resources.
  • In addition to the challenges around differing interests, priorities and capabilities inherent in any alliance, Europe appears to have lost its confidence. In part this is due to its growing disengagement and introspection. But Europe retains huge potential for influence if it uses its resources effectively. There is much that European states can do, individually and together, to take more control over advancing their strategic interests. Equally, by working together they can do much to nudge the United States in helpful directions to support the mutual interests of all parties.
  • The conversation on reforming global institutions such as the IMF must move beyond the need for change per se towards articulating the actual shape of such changes. Europe and Canada will likely need to push the United States into accepting reform of these institutions to better reflect today’s reality and tomorrow’s challenges. Global institutions need more diversified leaderships if they are to ensure their long-term legitimacy and influence. This will be difficult to push through politically in the United States, but by working with new regional and global powers to propose reforms, Europe and Canada can help find an acceptable solution.
  • The use of ad hoc coalitions does not necessarily damage the efficacy of broader consensus institutions such as NATO. In fact, flexible coalitions may often be desirable when solutions to new challenges need to be developed and agreed quickly.
  • Canada and Europe should consider partnering with other actors besides the United States where necessary. This may be expedient for meeting individual objectives, and would have the secondary benefit of demonstrating to emerging powers that the West does not exclude cooperation with others out of an arbitrary loyalty to the United States.
  • Europe needs to appreciate the potentially dire consequences of failing to adapt to changing US leadership and an increasingly complex world. There is a real chance that the European project could unravel in the next few years due to external and internal pressures. While many European policy-makers display an understanding of these challenges in private, in public there is little appetite for taking the decisions necessary to bring long-term stability to the continent. 

Department/project




the future

Special relationships in flux: Brexit and the future of the US– EU and US–UK relationships

6 May 2016 , Volume 92, Number 3

A British exit from the EU would add to growing strains on the United States’relations with Britain and the rest of Europe, but by itself would not lead to a breakdown in transatlantic relations. It would, however, add to pressures on the US that could change the direction of the transatlantic relationship. From the perspective of Washington, Britain risks becoming an awkward inbetweener.

Tim Oliver and Michael John Williams

A British exit from the EU would add to growing strains on the United States’ relations with Britain and the rest of Europe, but by itself would not lead to a breakdown in transatlantic relations due to the scale of shared ideas and interests, institutional links, international pressures and commitments by individual leaders. It would, however, add to pressures on the US that could change the direction of the transatlantic relationship. From the perspective of Washington, Britain risks becoming an awkward inbetweener, beholden more than ever before to a wider transatlantic relationship where the US and EU are navigating the challenges of an emerging multipolar world. The article outlines developments in the UK, EU, Europe and the US in order to explain what Brexit could mean for the United States’ approaches to transatlantic relations. By doing so the article moves beyond a narrow view of Brexit and transatlantic relations that focuses on the future of UK–US relations. In the conclusion we map out several ways in which US views of the transatlantic relationship could be changed.




the future

Does Brexit Mean the Future Is President Trump?

21 July 2016

Dr Jacob Parakilas

Former Deputy Head, US and the Americas Programme

Xenia Wickett

Former Head, US and the Americas Programme; Former Dean, The Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs
The growing anti-establishment backlash on both sides of the Atlantic may not swing November’s election, but the world has fundamentally changed.

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Donald Trump enters the stage on the first day of the 2016 Republican National Convention. Photo by Getty Images.

The British vote to leave the EU is (and should be) seen as a wakeup call for political elites on both sides of the Atlantic. Under normal circumstances, the institutional support that crossed party lines for the Remain campaign should have ensured it a comfortable victory; instead, it lost by a not-insignificant 52−48 per cent margin. Similarly, Donald Trump has alienated the establishment of both American parties – while Democratic dislike is predictable, the extent of the Republican elite’s discomfort with Trump, clearly on display at the party’s convention in Cleveland this week, is extremely unusual at this point in an election campaign which is more typically a display of ‘rally around the candidate’. But as Brexit demonstrated, the conventional logic may not apply in 2016.

There are significant differences between the UK referendum and the US elections. Some of this is structural – a national referendum operates along very different lines than a US presidential election, after all, and the US electorate is much larger and more diverse than its British equivalent. Furthermore, American voters will be making a choice between individuals as well as ideas. This does not necessarily work to the advantage of either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton (both of whom have the highest unfavourability ratings for presidential candidates seen in decades), but highly individualized questions of personality and temperament will impact voter behaviour in a way that they did not for British referendum voters. Finally, who wins the US election will depend in very large part on state politics and electoral college math – as the 2000 election showed, the candidate who wins the popular vote does not necessarily end up as president.

But there is a far more important message that politicians in the US, UK and, more broadly, Europe, should take away from the Brexit result. Regardless of what happens in the US elections, elites no longer necessarily hold the preponderance of power. The disenfranchised who have historically either not had the mass or the coherence to communicate it now do - at least on occasion.

This is not an ideological split – Brexit voters came together from all parts of the political spectrum. Equally, in the US, Sanders and Trump voters are bucking the system in both the Democratic and Republican parties.

There is a significant backlash under way in both countries towards aspects of globalization, going beyond the traditional right/left divide. Allowing for some differences in specifics, the American and British political establishments have, over the past few decades, broadly eased restrictions on the free movement of capital, goods and people across national borders. There have been notable benefits associated with this approach that have mostly been distributed inclusively, but the costs have typically hit those already less advantaged and without opportunities or skills to mitigate them. Those who have been left out or left behind from these changes are discovering their own political power.

Politicians are going to have to find ways not just to appeal to these voters who feel disenfranchised by existing structures, but also address their legitimate concerns. There will of course be partisan policy solutions put forward on both sides. But inevitably the political leadership is going to have to find ways to bridge party lines to realize solutions to those social and economic inequalities. Ignoring them, as many have in the past, is increasingly a quick path to losing power.

Unless the world wants to turn back to more isolationist and protectionist times, with the slower growth and inequalities that this includes, politicians are also going to have to do a better job of explaining the benefits of globalization. And, more importantly, they will have to ensure that these benefits reach their broader population more equitably and that the costs are better mitigated. 

So the Brexit vote does not necessarily presage a Trump victory on 8 November, but it shows in stark terms that the world has fundamentally changed – the time when elites alone could call the shots is gone. Politicians, including Hillary Clinton, will need to respond proactively to the causes of the dissatisfaction rather than waiting until the next time they need the public vote.

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the future

How Will New Technologies Shape the Future of Economic Growth in the US and Europe?

Invitation Only Research Event

12 October 2017 - 8:00am to 9:15am

Chatham House London, UK

Event participants

Diane Coyle, Professor, University of Manchester; Founder and Managing Director, Enlightenment Economics

Diane Coyle will join us for a discussion on the impact that new technologies will have on transatlantic economic transformations in the future.

Economic growth rates in the US and Europe have been decelerating over the last decades, and the growth that has materialised has not been equally shared by all.

While technological advancements have contributed to widening inequality of income and wealth, at the same time, technological change is a driving force in improving living standards.

Looking ahead, what role will new technologies play in economic transformations and disruptions?

How can leaders in government and business on both sides of the Atlantic best harvest the potential and respond to the challenges of technological change and its impact on the economy?

This event is part of the US and Americas Programme ongoing series on Transatlantic Perspectives on Common Economic Challenges.

This series examines some of the principal global challenges that we face today and potentially differing perspectives from across Europe and the US.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

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Courtney Rice

Senior Programme Manager, US and the Americas Programme
(0)20 7389 3298




the future

One Year of Donald Trump: Assessing the Future of the Transatlantic Relationship

Members Event Webinar

18 January 2018 - 11:30am to 12:00pm

Online

Event participants

Xenia Wickett, Head, US and the Americas Programme; Dean, The Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs, Chatham House

Events over the past 18 months, in particular with the UK’s decision to leave the European Union and the election of Donald Trump, have elevated concerns among many Europeans and Americans over the health of the transatlantic relationship. With the EU looking inward and President Trump’s rejection of a number of historically common US-European interests, such as NATO, the JCPOA on Iran, and the Paris Agreement, the continuation of close transatlantic collaboration is in question.

Xenia Wickett will discuss the future of the transatlantic relationship. Is there a clear structural divergence between the US and the UK or is the partnership merely going through a temporary hiccup? She will explore the importance of recent events as well as structural, long-term factors that affect the US and Europe similarly. And what actions, if any, can be taken to mitigate differences and best manage the current situation of uncertainty?

Please note, this event is online only. Members will be able to watch the webinar from a computer or other internet-ready device and do not need to come to Chatham House to attend.




the future

The Rise of China and the Future of the Transatlantic Relationship

29 July 2019

The growth of China's wealth and military power represents an epochal change in international politics. This briefing argues that China’s rise has worrying implications for the liberal international order and explores how this will affect the transatlantic relationship.

Jennifer Lind

Associate Fellow, US and the Americas Programme and Asia-Pacific Programme (based in the US)

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Teams from France, Great Britain, the US, China, Australia and Japan race against each other during the SailGP on 4 May 2019 in San Francisco, California. Photo: Getty Images

Summary

  • The stakeholders in the transatlantic relationship – the US, Canada and Europe – have long sought to stabilize international politics and economies by spreading support for the liberal goals of free markets, democracy and human rights. As their own commitment to this agenda appears to waver, China is becoming wealthier and more assertive. This briefing explores the extent to which these goals – along with the unity of the transatlantic relationship – are now in jeopardy.
  • Great uncertainty surrounds this question, including over the direction of US foreign policy, risks to European cohesion and slowing growth in China. However, two decades of revisionist behaviour by the authorities in Beijing show that China’s values and interests already conflict with transatlantic goals in trade, cyberspace, international development, security and human rights.
  • On trade, China pursues protectionist policies while engaging actively in intellectual property theft. China’s military modernization and its view of maritime law challenge the territorial status quo in East Asia and raise the risk of military crisis there. China lends unconditionally to countries that abuse human rights and are corrupt, undermining efforts by Western governments to promote good governance and human rights.
  • Defending liberal goals is complicated by asymmetric interests among the transatlantic partners, especially over security. China also uses ‘wedge’ strategies to pick off potential allies, thus diluting the power and will of any counterbalancing effort.
  • This briefing argues that China’s rise has worrying implications for the liberal international order. In response, the US should recognize its own strong interest in European unity, while Europeans must be ready to align more with the US (and East Asian allies) in order to temper Chinese behaviour.




the future

The Future of Brexit, Britain and Boris

Invitation Only Research Event

17 October 2019 - 8:30am to 9:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Philip Rycroft, Permanent Secretary, Department for Exiting the EU (2017-19)
Chair: Tom Raines, Head, Europe Programme, Chatham House

Once again, Brexit is reaching an important juncture. The European Council on 17 October is seen by many as the last chance for Britain to secure a withdrawal deal or another delay. With parliament and government at loggerheads, it is far from clear what happens at the end of October.
 
In a discussion taking place on the day of the European Summit, the speaker will share his insights on the future of negotiations between the UK and the EU under different scenarios. How do the EU and the UK repair relations after 'No Deal'? Should a withdrawal deal be agreed, what does the second phase of negotiations look like and what lessons can Whitehall draw from phase one? And if there is another delay, what will change over the course of the next three months?
 
Please note attendance at this event is by invitation only and places are now full. 

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Alina Lyadova

Europe Programme Coordinator




the future

The Future of Democracy in Europe: Technology and the Evolution of Representation

3 March 2020

To the extent that perceptions of a crisis in liberal democracy in Europe can be confirmed, this paper investigates the nature of the problem and its causes, and asks what part, if any, digital technology plays in it.

Hans Kundnani

Senior Research Fellow, Europe Programme

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A woman writes a note on the Savita Halappanavar mural in Dublin on 26 May 2018, following a referendum on the 36th amendment to Ireland’s constitution. The referendum result was overwhelmingly in favour of removing the country’s previous near-universal ban on abortion. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • There is a widespread sense that liberal democracy is in crisis, but little consensus exists on the specific nature and causes of the crisis. In particular, there are three prisms through which the crisis is usually seen: the rise of ‘populism’, ‘democratic deconsolidation’, and a ‘hollowing out’ of democracy. Each reflects normative assumptions about democracy.
  • The exact role of digital technology in the crisis is disputed. Despite the widely held perception that social media is undermining democracy, the evidence for this is limited. Over the longer term, the further development of digital technology could undermine the fundamental preconditions for democracy – though the pace and breadth of technological change make predictions about its future impact difficult.
  • Democracy functions in different ways in different European countries, with political systems on the continent ranging from ‘majoritarian democracies’ such as the UK to ‘consensual democracies’ such as Belgium and Switzerland. However, no type seems to be immune from the crisis. The political systems of EU member states also interact in diverse ways with the EU’s own structure, which is problematic for representative democracy as conventionally understood, but difficult to reform.
  • Political parties, central to the model of representative democracy that emerged in the late 18th century, have long seemed to be in decline. Recently there have been some signs of a reversal of this trend, with the emergence of parties that have used digital technology in innovative ways to reconnect with citizens. Traditional parties can learn from these new ‘digital parties’.
  • Recent years have also seen a proliferation of experiments in direct and deliberative democracy. There is a need for more experimentation in these alternative forms of democracy, and for further evaluation of how they can be integrated into the existing institutions and processes of representative democracy at the local, regional, national and EU levels.
  • We should not think of democracy in a static way – that is, as a system that can be perfected once and for all and then simply maintained and defended against threats. Democracy has continually evolved and now needs to evolve further. The solution to the crisis will not be to attempt to limit democracy in response to pressure from ‘populism’ but to deepen it further as part of a ‘democratization of democracy’.