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Constrafor is stepping up to support local contractors across Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia with a comprehensive Disaster Relief Effort. This initiative, in conjunction with their Early Pay Program (EPP), aims to provide immediate financial support to contractors, enabling them to overcome delays, secure materials, and ensure timely payment for their teams.

Paul Davis Restoration pledges $1 million to the American Red Cross Annual Disaster Giving Program in response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. This proactive donation ensures the Red Cross is equipped to meet the needs of those affected by disasters across the U.S. Discover how this significant contribution, along with volunteer efforts, supports disaster relief and community resilience. 

Phoenix Restoration Equipment announces the release of its new, free iPhone application that will instantly calculate the psychometric data essential to restoration professionals. 

The latest version of Xactware’s estimating software contains enhanced features to make estimating renovation and repair costs faster, easier, and more effective.

Wahl Instruments Inc. adds the HSI3000B to its line of Wahl Heat Spy Thermal Imaging Cameras.  This new thermal imaging camera for buildings “is the best equipped entry level device on the market – with the highest specification in its class."

The Munters HC-150 and HC-300 desiccant dehumidification units have been inspected, tested and approved for ETL compliance to UL 1995 by Intertek Testing Services. 

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EagleView Technologies, the leader in 3D aerial roof measurements, offers a mobile app optimized for your iPad or Tablet.

When it comes to management software for restoration contractors, DASH beats every competitor hands down!

11/19/2024 - 12:00 PM - Venue: Eagles lodge

FPSA foundation also supported food-insecure communities through the DEFEAT HUNGER initiative.

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Fresh sausages are one of the most popular types of processed meat. Fresh sausage is available in a wide variety of flavors and styles.

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Today's consumers are much more likely to focus on changing their snacking habits in order to achieve weight loss success.

In their latest Global Beverage Packaging Market report, market research firm TechNavio (technavio.com) estimates that the beverage packaging industry will have a compounded annual growth rate of 4.11% globally over the next four years.

In May 2014, the American Frozen Food Institute (AFFI), McLean, Va., launched a national effort to encourage consumers to take a fresh look at frozen foods.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that nearly one-third of the edible components of food produced for human consumption gets lost or wasted, amounting to about 1.3 billion tons per year globally.

Companies selling dairy products in Oregon must understand whether they have obligations under the EPR law.

FSX 2025 is designed as a platform for knowledge-sharing, professional growth, and collaboration among key stakeholders in the food industry.

The October jobs report from Australia was not as strong as we have become accustomed to:

• Australian October unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected)

It was not a poor report, just not another blockbuster!

AUD/USD is not a lot changed. Earlier we had Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock sounding not dovish:

• RBA Bullock says rates are restrictive enough, staying there until confident on inflation

Still no efforts from Japan to talk up the yen.

The USD is stronger pretty much everywhere.

USD/JPY has pooped above 156.00 and its straddling thereabouts as I post.

No fresh news apart from whats been posted. Not that any is needed right now.

• New York Fed's Williams speaking Thursday - Kugler, Barkin also (Powell too!)
• Australian jobs report recap - "remains in relatively solid health"
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann is speaking again on Thursday
• People's Bank of China has more work to do to support the yuan
• European Central Bank President Lagarde and VP de Guindos speaking Thursday, Schnabel too
• Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on Thursday
• GBP traders heads up - Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking late Thursday
• China’s annual production of new energy vehicles surpassed 10 million units on Thursday
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1966 (vs. estimate at 7.2326)
• ICYMI: Ex-Mr Yen Kanda said Japan will act appropriately against excess FX movements
• AUD/USD little changed after the October employment report showed a steady jobless rate
• Australian October unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected)
• UBS maintain a US$2900 target for gold
• RBA Bullock says rates are restrictive enough, staying there until confident on inflation
• USD/JPY above 155 - Citi wary of intervention risk
• Investment bank bullish on Fed rate cuts; inflation concerns linger
• Oil - private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw vs build expected
• New Zealand data - FPI -0.9% in October (prior +0.5%)
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 13 Nov: US CPI comes out as expected. USD continues rise
• Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 14 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

The continuing US dollar uptrend … continued.

USD/JPY traded, above 156.00, to a high not seen since July. EUR/USD, meanwhile, dropped under 1.0550 to a low not seen in a year. AUD, NZD, GBP, CHF, CAD, yuan all moved lower. As did hapless gold. BTC/USD dropped back from above US$93.5K, but this thing is a beast, it gets a free pass ;-) .

On the data front the release of note was Australia’s job report for October. Job growth slowed down and the unemployment report steadied at 4.1%. It was a solid report without being spectacular. Slowing wage growth (data released yesterday) and a steady job market leaves the Reserve Bank of Australia to focus on bringing inflation down. RBA Governor Bullock spoke during the session. Bullock was not dovish, signalling that rates are restrictive enough but will not be coming down imminently.

The People’s Bank of China once again set the USD/CNY reference rate weaker (stronger for CNY) than estimates indicated.

That makes it a congressional red sweep and the question now is just how much of a majority will they command in the House? The latest NYT projections here show Republicans do have the needed 218 seats claimed for a majority. However, there are still 9 seats yet to be called.

There are some seats such as Iowa 1 and California 45, which are toss ups, that could go to a recount and take a longer time to settle due to the current margins. For some context, here is a list of the more competitive districts as a reference.

But even if you give those two to the Democrats, Republicans will at least snag Alaska 1 to end with 219 seats. That is the bare minimum that they should win with when all is said and done.

The dollar continues to push higher in the post-election period and in the case of USD/JPY, that momentum is helped by higher yields as well. The pair has been on a tear since October trading, racing up from 143.00 all the way to touching 156.00 earlier today. The break above 155.00 yesterday is a crucial one, signifying another breach of a key technical/psychological level.

When it comes to USD/JPY, there's always something about big figure levels. And this is arguably no exception.

With buyers clearing the key daily moving averages and 150.00 mark last month, the focus has been drawn on the 155.00 mark since. And inevitably with Trump winning the election, we've finally gotten there today.

And having done so, we're into a bit of a pocket of space with little to no technical resistance all the way to 160.00 potentially.

It doesn't mean we'll get there overnight but it does present an attractive level for buyers to take aim at. Nonetheless, the pace of any further gains will of course be another thing to be mindful of though.

That might invite scrutiny from Japan officials to verbally intervene. As for any real intervention threat, it's going to be tough to fight the underlying market momentum in play currently. So, I wouldn't imagine Tokyo trying that out - at least for the time being.

The bond market is once again going to be a key driver to be mindful of when it comes to USD/JPY. But for now, the overall dollar bullishness is also helping to underpin the pair rather strongly. That especially when the greenback is starting to creep up on some key technical levels in the bigger picture, as seen here with EUR/USD.

The pullback in gold continues to play out since the post-election period. The precious metal is now down for a fifth straight day in what is already easily its worst weekly showing so far this year. It has more or less been a case of waiting for said pullback to reach some key technical levels on the charts. And we're just about there already in trading today.

The 100-day moving average (red line) is the key technical focus right now and that is seen at roughly $2,543. The last time gold actually had a brush against the key level was all the way back in February. And the last time that gold traded back below either that or its 200-day moving average (blue line) was all the way back in October last year.

That underscores the breathtaking momentum that has been in play for gold all through this year so far.

As such, this makes the 100-day moving average an even more important technical juncture now. A break there will not only signify a break in the bullish bias in gold. However, it could set off another wave of selling that leads to an even bigger pullback.

Traders love key levels like these and USD/JPY is a good example of that when it broke its own 100-day moving average back in late July as well. The drop there of course owed to a myriad of other factors but the technical consideration certainly exacerbated things. And it could also be the case for gold when we get there in the sessions ahead.

I'm still an advocate for gold in the bigger picture of things. However, I would say dip buyers will need to be patient to let this correction run its course before coming back in. From earlier this week: Gold pullback might prove to be timely for dip buyers

• German DAX futures -0.1%
• UK FTSE futures -0.2%

This comes with S&P 500 futures also seen down by 0.2% currently. Wall Street had a mixed day but overall was little changed, as investors pumped the brakes on the post-election euphoria for the time being. In Europe, things are still muddy as the threat of Trump tariffs continue to cloud the bigger picture outlook for next year.

The European session is going to be once again a bit empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier data points. We get the 2nd estimate of the Eurozone Q3 GDP and the ECB Meeting Minutes. Both of them are old news and the market won't care much about it.

In the American session, the focus will be on the US PPI and Jobless Claims data. Yesterday's US CPI came in line with expectations and after a bit of a "sell the fact" reaction in the US Dollar, the market started to bid it again.

The CPI wasn't the main culprit though as the momentum got triggered by Fed's Logan comment saying "models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral" potentially implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US October PPI

The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs. 1.8% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.0% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs. 2.8% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior.

This report will be seen in light of the US CPI data yesterday as it will give us a better estimate of the US Core PCE due at the end of the month. An upside surprise might trigger some more US Dollar gains as the market could price out some more the rate cuts expected in 2025, but the December cut remains pretty much assured.

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims

The US Jobless Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims after an improvement in the last two months, spiked to the cycle highs in the last couple of weeks due to distortions coming from hurricanes and strikes.

This week Initial Claims are expected at 223K vs. 221K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1880K vs. 1852K prior.

Central bank speakers:

• 08:30 GMT - ECB's de Guindos (dove - voter)
• 13:00 GMT/08:00 - BoE's Mann (hawk - voter)
• 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET - Fed's Barkin (neutral - voter)
• 15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - Fed's Kugler (dove - voter)
• 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - ECB's Schnabel (hawk - voter)
• 19:00 GMT/14:00 ET - ECB's Lagarde (neutral - voter)
• 20:00 GMT/15:00 ET - Fed Chair Powell (neutral - voter)
• 21:15 GMT/16:15 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)

• Prior +1.5%
• HICP +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelim
• Prior +1.7%

Core annual inflation was seen at 2.5% on the month, up slightly from 2.4% in September. That just reaffirms a small bump in the works in the disinflation process. But given recent developments, the ECB will still feel comfortable in sticking with rate cuts for now.

Why it's important?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for PPI

PPI Y/Y

• 2.4% (11%)
• 2.3% (68%) - consensus
• 2.2% (16%)
• 2.0% (5%)

PPI M/M

• 0.4% (2%)
• 0.3% (13%)
• 0.2% (74%) - consensus
• 0.1% (7%)
• 0.0% (2%)
• -0.1% (2%)

Core PPI Y/Y

• 3.1% (12%)
• 3.0% (47%) - consensus
• 2.9% (35%)
• 2.7% (6%)

Core PPI M/M

• 0.3% (57%) - consensus
• 0.2% (40%)
• 0.1% (3%)

Analysis

We can ignore the headline PPI as the market will focus on the Core figures. We can notice that the expectations are skewed to the downside, so a higher than expected reading would be taken as more hawkish and likely give the US Dollar another boost. Conversely, a soft print could trigger a pullback.

The US Dollar remains in an uptrend as the market continues to price out the rate cuts expected in 2025. Right now we have another 25 bps cut priced for December and just two 25 bps cuts priced in 2025 which is already much lower than the Fed's projection of four.

Therefore, there's still a couple of rate cuts to price out in 2025 if the data continues to run hot, but at that point we would need a real acceleration in inflation to have the market pricing in a rate hike. For now, the bar for rate hikes is really high as the maximum the Fed is willing to do is to pause the easing cycle.

• Prior +0.3%
• GDP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y second estimate
• Prior +0.6%

No changes to the initial estimates as this just reaffirms more modest growth in the euro area in Q3. But this is old news, as the focus is on the outlook next year with Trump tariffs set to come into the picture.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 20 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

• ECB: 34 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 145 bps

• BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 56 bps

• BoC: 33 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 95 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 40 bps

• RBNZ: 55 bps (80% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/20% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 170 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 13 bps (51% probability of 25 bps rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 44 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem is scheduled to speak at the top of the hour. Musalem is a voting member in 2025. Back on October 7, Musalem spoke and said:

• More rate cuts likely given economic outlook.
• Won't predict timing or size of future Fed easings.
• Personal rate outlook is above Fed’s median view.
• Costs of easing too much outweigh easing too little.
• Supported Fed’s decision last month to cut rates by 50 basis points.
• Policy patience has served Fed well.
• Cooler job market still consistent with strong economy.
• Expects inflation pressures to continue to abate.
• Expects inflation to converge to 2% over next couple of quarters.
• Financial conditions remain supportive of growth.
• Some economic activity slowed by rate policy, election uncertainty.

That was over a month ago. So how he weighs in now will be interesting given the backup in yields and other economic and other developments since that time

• Risks to the jobs market have remain unchanged or have fallen
• Fed may be on the 'last mile' to price stability, inflation expected to converge to 2% over the medium term
• Monetary policy well posited, Fed can 'judiciously and patiently' judge income data to decide on further rate cuts
• Strong economy on track for a 'solid' fourth quarter
• Growth is broad-balanced and driven by consumption, income growth, productivity, supportive financial conditions and wealth effects
• Recent high productivity could prove durably structural but that remains uncertain
• Core inflation remain elevated
• Pressure in services industries slowly abating

This is the third Fed official who has floated some more-hawkish hints. It's hardly a signal of a pause in December but early 2025 is going to be interesting. There are meetings in January, March and May. Assuming a cut in Dec, there is one cut fully priced in for that period (and a smidge more).

That sounds about right based on the comments and data but that's going to swing based on the next set of numbers and beyond.

• Rate cuts to date are an acknowledgement of growing confidence that inflation is on the path to 2% goal
• Hope productivity growth can outrun the effects of slowing population growth
• Won't let enthusiasm over rising productivity get ahead of data or commitment to reaching Fed goals

There isn't much of a hint on anything here.

More hawkish comments from the St Louis Fed President

• Inflation data is also stronger but has not yet changed view that policy is on a path to neutral
• There is likely space for a gradual easing of policy towards neutral rate
• Stronger data likely pushing Treasury yields higher
• Too soon to understand new administration
• Rising bond yields also offer a sense of higher inflation risk and some sense the Fed may not cut as much

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock

• bond markets pretty well behaved globally
• bond markets reflecting increasing government debt
• think we are restrictive enough, will stay there until confident on inflation

More:

• recent inflation had both supply- and deand-sdie components
• aim is to lower inflation
• prices not going back to pre-covid level, that would be deflation and not going to have that

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value.

Yesterday the People's Bank of China propped up the yuan at this setting:

• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that's what are seeing

I suspect we'll see similar support for the yuan again today.

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

Previous close was 7.2330

In open market operations (OMOs):

PBOC injects 328bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 19bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 309bn yuan

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a speech on his economic outlook, followed by a question and answer session.

• Powell participates in "Global Perspectives" conversation before event hosted by the Dallas Regional Chamber, World Affairs Council of DFW and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
• @ 2000 GMT / 1500 US Eastern time

While the Fed seems committed to a December rate cut not all signs in the CPI data on Wednesday were encouraging.

0830 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time - Remarks by European Central Bank's vice president Luis de Guindos at 31 Encuentro del Sector Financiero organised by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid, Spain

1830 GMT / 1330 US Eastern time - Participation by ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel in policy panel "Reassessing Policy Tools for Current and Future Challenges" at 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference "Rethinking the Policy Toolkit in a Turbulent Global Economy" in Washington, DC

1900 GMT / 1400 Remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde at Choiseul Sovereignty Awards 2024 ceremony

I posted yesterday on the prospect of deeper than expected ECB rate cuts yet to come:

• ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank's 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate

Meanwhile, EUR is struggling near a one-year low:

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here on Monday:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

And on Wednesday we saw the Bank trying to support CNY at the reference rate setting:

• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that's what are seeing

And again today:

• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1966 (vs. estimate at 7.2326)

Offshore yuan may have seen the memo but its not paying it much heed:

The PBoC supported the CNY through the last bout of USD/CNY super-strength. They'll be doing the same again this time around, wary of capital outflow if they let the yuan drift too much lower. They'll be hoping US inflation doesn't take off higher and the Fed pauses ... or reverses.

The data is here from earlier:

• Australian October unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected)
• AUD/USD little changed after the October employment report showed a steady jobless rate
  • (ps. AUD/USD has slid a little since this post, broadly stronger USD the culprit)

Westpac with the recap, in brief:

Australian labour market remains in relatively solid health

• employment growth slowing broadly in line with population growth
• average hours holding steady
• few signs that labour demand is capitulating to an extent that warrants concern
• labour market conditions remain somewhat tight ... this is not translating to stronger wage inflation pressures
• On balance, today’s update will see the RBA continue to remain focused on the dynamics around underlying inflation.

***

Speaking of the RBA, we heard from Bullock earlier, not dovish:

• RBA Bullock says rates are restrictive enough, staying there until confident on inflation

***

AUD/USD update:

• Inflation has come down quite a lot
• Recent data on prices are heading towards our 2% goal
• If inflation converges towards our goal, then monetary policy will respond accordingly

This just reaffirms their current stance and market pricing for a rate cut in December. The question now is, how much will the ECB move by? The odds of a 25 bps rate cut are at ~63% with the remainder pinned to a 50 bps move instead.

Unexpected increase in consumer demand