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Study: could dark matter be hiding in existing data?

(DOE/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) A new study, led by researchers at Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, suggests new paths for catching the signals of dark matter particles that have their energy absorbed by atomic nuclei.




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Coronavirus: Public Health Emergency or Pandemic – Does Timing Matter?

1 May 2020

Dr Charles Clift

Senior Consulting Fellow, Global Health Programme
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been criticized for delaying its announcements of a public health emergency and a pandemic for COVID-19. But could earlier action have influenced the course of events?

2020-05-01-Tedros-WHO-COVID

WHO director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the COVID-19 press briefing on March 11, 2020, the day the coronavirus outbreak was classed as a pandemic. Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the spread of COVID-19 to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 30 this year and then characterized it as a pandemic on March 11.

Declaring a PHEIC is the highest level of alert that WHO is obliged to declare, and is meant to send a powerful signal to countries of the need for urgent action to combat the spread of the disease, mobilize resources to help low- and middle-income countries in this effort and fund research and development on needed treatments, vaccines and diagnostics. It also obligates countries to share information with WHO.

Once the PHEIC was declared, the virus continued to spread globally, and WHO began to be asked why it had not yet declared the disease a pandemic. But there is no widely accepted definition of a pandemic, generally it is just considered an epidemic which affects many countries globally.

Potentially more deadly

The term has hitherto been applied almost exclusively to new forms of flu, such as H1N1 in 2009 or Spanish flu in 1918, where the lack of population immunity and absence of a vaccine or effective treatments makes the outbreak potentially much more deadly than seasonal flu (which, although global, is not considered a pandemic).

For COVID-19, WHO seemed reluctant to declare a pandemic despite the evidence of global spread. Partly this was because of its influenza origins — WHO’s emergency programme executive director said on March 9 that ‘if this was influenza, we would have called a pandemic ages ago’.

He also expressed concern that the word traditionally meant moving — once there was widespread transmission — from trying to contain the disease by testing, isolating the sick and tracing and quarantining their contacts, to a mitigation approach, implying ‘the disease will spread uncontrolled’.

WHO’s worry was that the world’s reaction to the word pandemic might be there was now nothing to be done to stop its spread, and so countries would effectively give up trying. WHO wanted to send the message that, unlike flu, it could still be pushed back and the spread slowed down.

In announcing the pandemic two days later, WHO’s director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reemphasised this point: ‘We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic’ and that WHO was deeply concerned ‘by the alarming levels of inaction’.

The evidence suggests that the correct message did in fact get through. On March 13, US president Donald Trump declared a national emergency, referring in passing to WHO’s announcement. On March 12, the UK launched its own strategy to combat the disease. And in the week following WHO’s announcements, at least 16 other countries announced lockdowns of varying rigour including Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Spain and Switzerland. Italy and Greece had both already instituted lockdowns prior to the WHO pandemic announcement.

It is not possible to say for sure that WHO’s announcement precipitated these measures because, by then, the evidence of the rapid spread was all around for governments to see. It may be that Italy’s dramatic nationwide lockdown on March 9 reverberated around European capitals and elsewhere.

But it is difficult to believe the announcement did not have an effect in stimulating government actions, as was intended by Dr Tedros. Considering the speed with which the virus was spreading from late February, might an earlier pandemic announcement by WHO have stimulated earlier aggressive actions by governments?

Declaring a global health emergency — when appropriate — is a key part of WHO’s role in administering the International Health Regulations (IHR). Significantly, negotiations on revisions to the IHR, which had been ongoing in a desultory fashion in WHO since 1995, were accelerated by the experience of the first serious coronavirus outbreak — SARS — in 2002-2003, leading to their final agreement in 2005.

Under the IHR, WHO’s director-general decides whether to declare an emergency based on a set of criteria and on the advice of an emergency committee. IHR defines an emergency as an ‘extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk through the international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response’.

In the case of COVID-19, the committee first met on January 22-23 but were unable to reach consensus on a declaration. Following the director-general’s trip to meet President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the committee reconvened on January 30 and this time advised declaring a PHEIC.

But admittedly, public recognition of what a PHEIC means is extremely low. Only six have ever been declared, with the first being the H1N1 flu outbreak which fizzled out quickly, despite possibly causing 280,000 deaths globally. During the H1N1 outbreak, WHO declared a PHEIC in April 2009 and then a pandemic in June, only to rescind both in August as the outbreak was judged to have transitioned to behave like a seasonal flu.

WHO was criticized afterwards for prematurely declaring a PHEIC and overreacting. This then may have impacted the delay in declaring the Ebola outbreak in West Africa as a PHEIC in 2014, long after it became a major crisis. WHO’s former legal counsel has suggested the PHEIC — and other aspects of the IHR framework — may not be effective in stimulating appropriate actions by governments and needs to be reconsidered.

When the time is right to evaluate lessons about the response, it might be appropriate to consider the relative effectiveness of the PHEIC and pandemic announcements and their optimal timing in stimulating appropriate action by governments. The effectiveness of lockdowns in reducing the overall death toll also needs investigation.




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Online Study Group: All Lukashenka’s Men: The Belarusian Ruling Elite and Why It Matters

Invitation Only Research Event

22 April 2020 - 2:30pm to 4:00pm

Event participants

Ryhor Astapenia, Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Chair: James Nixey, Programme Director, Russia and Eurasia, Chatham House

Soon after assuming power in 1994, President Aliaksandr Lukashenka turned his back on democratic norms and overpowered the Belarusian political elite. However, the influence of the governing elite in Belarus is growing again. It seems likely that the current governing class could rule the country after Lukashenka leaves. It is thus important to study Belarusian elites not only to understand the current regime, but also to better forecast and navigate the political system that will one day replace it. 

This study group aims to disentangle how the Belarusian political system works, outline the types of individuals that make up the Belarusian ruling elite, assess the interaction of the elite and institutions with the West, and suggest changes that Western political actors might make to their approach to the Belarusian ruling class.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Online Study Group: All Lukashenka’s Men: The Belarusian Ruling Elite and Why It Matters

Invitation Only Research Event

22 April 2020 - 2:30pm to 4:00pm

Event participants

Ryhor Astapenia, Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Chair: James Nixey, Programme Director, Russia and Eurasia, Chatham House

Soon after assuming power in 1994, President Aliaksandr Lukashenka turned his back on democratic norms and overpowered the Belarusian political elite. However, the influence of the governing elite in Belarus is growing again. It seems likely that the current governing class could rule the country after Lukashenka leaves. It is thus important to study Belarusian elites not only to understand the current regime, but also to better forecast and navigate the political system that will one day replace it. 

This study group aims to disentangle how the Belarusian political system works, outline the types of individuals that make up the Belarusian ruling elite, assess the interaction of the elite and institutions with the West, and suggest changes that Western political actors might make to their approach to the Belarusian ruling class.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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The World Bank - why it matters for global health

The world bank was set up in 1944. In the aftermath of the second world war, the institution was there to give loans to countries rebuilding after the conflict. Their first loan went to France - but with stipulations about repayment that set a tone for future funds. A new series, authored by Devi Sridhar, and her team from the University of...




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What Matters To You Day

It's What Matters To You day - #wmty - and in this podcast Anya de Iongh, The BMJ's patient editor, and Joe Fraser, author of Joe's Diabetes who works at NHS England on personalised care, get together to discuss what personalised care actually means, how it changes the ways in which patients and health professionals interact, and how it can be...




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COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series: Money Matters: Climate Finance and the COP

Research Event

20 April 2020 - 9:00am to 10:30am

Event participants

Tenzin Wangmo, Lead Negotiator of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group 
Mattias Frumerie, Director at the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs
Rachel Ward, Programme Director and Head of Policy at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change
Iseoluwa Akintunde, Mo Ibrahim Academy Fellow at Chatham House
Chair: Kirsty Hamilton, Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Finance plays a key role in enabling climate change mitigation and adaptation. It is also a contested issue in the UN climate negotiations. The fourth event in the Chatham House COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series will explore the politics of climate finance in the context of the COP, and provide a comprehensive update of the main climate finance-related negotiation items and processes. The topic is particularly timely given that the UK Government has made climate finance one of its top thematic priorities for COP26 and that 2020 constitutes the deadline for developed countries to mobilise USD 100 billion per year to support climate action in developing countries.

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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Immigration Data Matters: How to Find the Most Accurate Resources

With immigration increasingly visible in the news and the political space in the United States and internationally, getting access to accurate, high-quality data is essential to understand immigration’s demographic effects and impacts on the economy, education and labor systems, and communities. This event marks the release of the Immigration Data Matters guide.




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Immigration Data Matters: How to Find the Most Accurate Resources

At this release of an updated version of the popular Immigration Data Matters guide, presenters discuss how to navigate and access the increasing number of data sources on immigration and immigrants in the United States and internationally. 




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Immigration Data Matters

This useful online guide links users directly to the most credible, high-quality data on immigrants and immigration in the United States and internationally. The easy-to-use guide includes more than 220 data resources compiled by governmental and nongovernmental sources, covering topics ranging from population stock and flow numbers to statistics on enforcement, public opinion, religious affiliation, and much more.




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Coldest material in the cosmos could help scientists find dark matter particles

Researchers suggest the coldest material in the universe could reveal the presence of dark matter particles.




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K-12 Instructional Models for English Learners: What They Are and Why They Matter

Marking the release of an MPI brief, experts on this webinar examine the key features of English Learner (EL) instructional models and discuss state- and district-level approaches to supporting schools in implementing effective EL program models, with a particular focus on what is being done in New York and Madison Wisconsin. 




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Why sleep matters now more than ever | Matt Walker

A good night's sleep has perhaps never been more important. Sharing wisdom and debunking myths, sleep scientist Matt Walker discusses the impact of sleep on mind and body -- from unleashing your creative powers to boosting your memory and immune health -- and details practices you can start (and stop) doing tonight to get some rest. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and current affairs curator Whitney Pennington Rodgers. Recorded April 1, 2020)




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Researchers Once Found That People Believe In “Climate Change” More Than “Global Warming” — But Word Choice No Longer Seems To Matter

By Jesse Singal. Study fails to replicate 2011 result, suggesting that word choice matters less as issue has become more politicised.




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To make terms of compromise a rule of Court or not? That is the question : an analysis of the options available to settle estate matters / presended by Christina Flourentzou, Supreme Court of South Australia..




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Costs in estate matters : the practical implications of the return of the loser pays rule / presented by Bill Ericson, Finlaysons Lawyers.




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Earth Matters.




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What matters to Aboriginal children and young people, their families and communities : South Australia's Commissioner for Aboriginal Children and Young People inaugural report December 2019 / [April Lawrie].




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The death of expertise : the campaign against established knowledge and why it matters / Tom Nichols.

Ability -- United States.




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The slow moon climbs : the science, history and meaning of menopause / Susan P. Mattern.

Menopause.




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A digest of the law of Scotland relating to the poor, the public health, and other matters managed by parochial boards / by John Guthrie Smith.

Edinburgh : T. & T. Clark, 1878.




matter

To Show That Elections Matter, This Teacher Is Running for Office

In a civics lesson come to life, this Missouri high school government teacher is running for state legislature.




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Reproductive health matters.

London : Reproductive Health Matters, 1993-2018.




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प्रजनन स्वास्थ्य के मामले : Reproductive health matters.

London : Reproductive Health Matters, 1993-2018.




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生殖健康问题 : Reproductive health matters.

London : Reproductive Health Matters, 1993-2018.




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проблемы репродуктивного здоровья : reproductive health matters.

London : Reproductive Health Matters, 1993-2018.




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Temas de salud reproductiva : Reproductive health matters.

London : Reproductive Health Matters, 1993-2018.




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Questions de santé reproductive : Reproductive health matters.

London : Reproductive Health Matters, 1993-2018.




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Questões de saúde reprodutiva : Reproductive health matters.

London : Reproductive Health Matters, 1993-2018.




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Incorporating conditional dependence in latent class models for probabilistic record linkage: Does it matter?

Huiping Xu, Xiaochun Li, Changyu Shen, Siu L. Hui, Shaun Grannis.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1753--1790.

Abstract:
The conditional independence assumption of the Felligi and Sunter (FS) model in probabilistic record linkage is often violated when matching real-world data. Ignoring conditional dependence has been shown to seriously bias parameter estimates. However, in record linkage, the ultimate goal is to inform the match status of record pairs and therefore, record linkage algorithms should be evaluated in terms of matching accuracy. In the literature, more flexible models have been proposed to relax the conditional independence assumption, but few studies have assessed whether such accommodations improve matching accuracy. In this paper, we show that incorporating the conditional dependence appropriately yields comparable or improved matching accuracy than the FS model using three real-world data linkage examples. Through a simulation study, we further investigate when conditional dependence models provide improved matching accuracy. Our study shows that the FS model is generally robust to the conditional independence assumption and provides comparable matching accuracy as the more complex conditional dependence models. However, when the match prevalence approaches 0% or 100% and conditional dependence exists in the dominating class, it is necessary to address conditional dependence as the FS model produces suboptimal matching accuracy. The need to address conditional dependence becomes less important when highly discriminating fields are used. Our simulation study also shows that conditional dependence models with misspecified dependence structure could produce less accurate record matching than the FS model and therefore we caution against the blind use of conditional dependence models.




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White Matter Microstructure in Transsexuals and Controls Investigated by Diffusion Tensor Imaging

Georg S. Kranz
Nov 12, 2014; 34:15466-15475
Systems/Circuits




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Grey Matter Volume Differences Associated with Extremely Low Levels of Cannabis Use in Adolescence

Catherine Orr
Mar 6, 2019; 39:1817-1827
BehavioralSystemsCognitive




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Why our #MountainsMatter

In some countries, mountains are considered deities. In others, mountains are peaks to climb. In others still, mountains, like volcanoes, are spirits that can be angered. In countries around the world though, mountains provide life-sustaining water, energy and food for over half the world’s population.




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Why does it matter who has rights to land, fisheries and forests?

Growing crops, fishing, harvesting fruits and nuts from the forests are just some examples of the activities that millions of people do daily to get food to eat or to earn a living. But when their rights to that land or those natural resources aren’t recognized, livelihoods and food sources can disappear from one day to the next.    




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Music that matters: Aubyn O'Grady

Aubyn O'Grady, program director of the School of Visual Arts in Dawson City, seeks musical inspiration from some very interesting places.



  • News/Canada/North

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Seeds of hope: Spring on the farm brings new beginnings, no matter what we've gone through

As a farmer, spring means a fresh start, a chance for new life, hope and opportunities.



  • News/Canada/Saskatchewan

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What a Director of Social-Emotional Learning Does and Why It Matters

Setting districtwide priorities for SEL and supporting teachers is essential to ensuring consistency, says Atlanta’s director of social-emotional learning in this Q&A.




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Preschool Class Size—Within Reason—Doesn't Matter, Study Finds

Keeping preschool class sizes at or under 20 children, and keeping child-teacher ratios at 10 to 1, will work for most children in preschool, according to a new study.




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Does Class Size Matter?

Class size does matter for teachers and students, but only if the instruction used in the small class size is different from those instructional practices used in a large one.




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Class Size Matters

The situation in the Clark County School District is a perfect storm that serves as a reminder of how difficult it is for school officials to plan for changing conditions




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Class Size Matters

Size matters in nurturing the relationship between teachers and students.




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Herald View: Goodwill and a readiness to support one another will be the tests that matter above all

THE Government’s ambition to reach a daily target of 100,000 tests across the UK by the end of the month will, as Matt Hancock admitted, require a “huge amount of work”.




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Why Instructional Coaching Matters in Independent Schools

While independent schools can feel quite different from their public, charter, and parochial counterparts, the glue that holds all schools together is this noble charge we call teaching.




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Why the Teaching Profession Matters More Than Ever

While teaching is still in the top 10 of highly regarded professions, parents have stopped encouraging their children to become teachers. Guest blogger Heather Harding explores what should be done.




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Can Leadership Coaching Help Leaders Focus on What Matters?

Being a school leader is difficult. They are meant to focus on improvement while also negotiating their way through adult behavior. Can leadership coaching help them focus on what truly matters?




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Fin24.com | OPINION | When coronavirus is a matter of life or debt

Argentina is a case study in what happens when an economy already on its knees implements an aggressive lockdown, says Mac Margolis.




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World Campus helps students find mental health services no matter where they are

Katie Marshall, Penn State World Campus mental health case manager, connects students learning online to resources in their own communities.




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EURO 2016 technical report 5: Does possession matter?

In the last extract from the new UEFA EURO 2016 technical report, the expert panel examine whether having the majority of possession was really much use at all.




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Storytime, Meet Number Play: Early Math in the Home Matters for Later Skills

Preschool-age children who frequently play number-related games at home show better math skills and growth by the end of kindergarten, finds a new study in the journal Child Development.




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Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action

Flaminio Squazzoni, J. Gareth Polhill, Bruce Edmonds, Petra Ahrweiler, Patrycja Antosz, Geeske Scholz, Émile Chappin, Melania Borit, Harko Verhagen, Francesca Giardini and Nigel Gilbert: The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a dramatic loss of lives worldwide, challenging the sustainability of our health care systems, threatening economic meltdown, and putting pressure on the mental health of individuals (due to social distancing and lock-down measures). The pandemic is also posing severe challenges to the scientific community, with scholars under pressure to respond to policymakers’ demands for advice despite the absence of adequate, trusted data. Understanding the pandemic requires fine-grained data representing specific local conditions and the social reactions of individuals. While experts have built simulation models to estimate disease trajectories that may be enough to guide decision-makers to formulate policy measures to limit the epidemic, they do not cover the full behavioural and social complexity of societies under pandemic crisis. Modelling that has such a large potential impact upon people’s lives is a great responsibility. This paper calls on the scientific community to improve the transparency, access, and rigour of their models. It also calls on stakeholders to improve the rapidity with which data from trusted sources are released to the community (in a fully responsible manner). Responding to the pandemic is a stress test of our collaborative capacity and the social/economic value of research.