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In Memoriam: Patricia McLaughlin

Patricia (Pat) McLaughlin, our beloved colleague and friend at the Center since 2001, passed away in February after a brief illness. Hired as Faculty Assistant to John Holdren, Co-Director of the Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program (STPP) nearly 20 years ago, she continued to work with STPP and with John until her illness.




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Whitmarsh seeks wing clarification

McLaren team-boss left television viewers in no doubt what he thought about the legality of Red Bull's flexible front wing after Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber dominated qualifying for the Hungarian Grand Prix




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Schumacher seeks rules clarification

Michael Schumacher has called for clarification of the safety car rules after the seven-time world champion completed his worst ever race finish in 259 grand prix starts




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Impeachment Brings Clarity in Rough Days

Since Watergate, presidents and their aides have warned that impeachment is destabilizing to foreign policy. But history suggests otherwise. Presidential scandals create uncertainty abroad, but the impeachment process itself seems to bring clarity and resolution.




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McLaren must work 'very quickly' - Lewis

Lewis Hamilton admitted that his McLaren team must work 'very quickly' to turn things around after finishing well off the pace of the Ferrari duo and Sebastian Vettel on Sunday




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FIA declares Red Bull and Ferrari front wings legal

The FIA's Jo Bauer on Sunday eased a burgeoning controversy about flexible front wings




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Africa in the news: COVID-19 impacts African economies and daily lives; clashes in the Sahel

African governments begin borrowing from IMF, World Bank to soften hit from COVID-19 This week, several countries and multilateral organizations announced additional measures to combat the economic fallout from COVID-19 in Africa. Among the actions taken by countries, Uganda’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point to 8 percent and directed…

       




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How Second Earners Can Rescue the Middle Class from Stagnant Incomes


In his state of the union and his budget, the President spoke of the stagnation of middle class incomes. Whatever growth we have had has not been broadly shared.  More than 78% of the growth in GDP between 1979 and 2013 has gone to the top one percent. Even Republicans are beginning to worry about this issue although they have yet to develop concrete proposals to address it.

Slow Growth in Incomes

Middle class incomes were growing slowly before the recession and have actually declined over the past decade.   In addition, according to the New York Times, the proportion of the population with incomes between $35,000 and $100,000 in inflation-adjusted terms fell from 53% in 1967 to 43% in 2013.  During the first four decades this was primarily because more people were moving into higher income groups, but more recently it was because they have moved down the ladder, not up.  One can define the middle class in many different ways or torture the data in various ways, but there is plenty of evidence that we have a problem.

What to Do

The most promising approach is what I call “the second earner solution.”  For many decades now, the labor force participation rate of prime age men has been falling while that of women has been rising.  The entry of so many women into the labor force was the major force propelling whatever growth in middle class incomes occurred up until about 2000. That growth in women’s work has now levelled off.  Getting it back on an upward track would do more than any policy I can think of to help the middle class.

Imagine a household with one earner making the average wage of today’s worker and spending full-time in the job market.  That household will have an income of around $34,000. But if he (or she) has a spouse making a similar amount, the household’s income will double to $68,000. That is why the President’s focus on a second-earner credit of $500, a tripling of the child care tax credit, expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, and providing paid leave are so important. These policies are all pro-work and research shows they would increase employment.

No Marriage = No Second Earner

One problem, of course, is that fewer and fewer households contain two potential workers.  So it would also help to bring back marriage or at least its first cousin, a stable cohabiting relationship.  My ideas on this front are spelled out in my new book, Generation Unbound. In a nutshell, we need to empower women to not have children before they have found a committed partner with whom to raise children in a stable, two-parent family. Whatever the other benefits of two parents, they have twice as much time and potentially twice as much income.    

Other Needed Responses

Shouldn’t we also worry about the wages or the employment of men?  Of course.  But an increase in, say, the minimum wage or a better collective bargaining environment or more job training will have far smaller effects than “the second earner solution.”  In addition, the decline in male employment is related to still more difficult problems such as high rates of incarceration and the failure of men to take advantage of postsecondary education as much as women have. 

Still the two-earner solution should not be pursued in isolation. In the short-term, a stronger recovery from the recession is needed and in the longer-term, more effective investments in education, research, infrastructure, and in labor market institutions that produce more widely-shared growth, as argued by the Commission on Inclusive Prosperity. But do we really expect families to wait for these long-term policies to pay off?  It could be decades. 

In the meantime, the President’s proposals to make work more appealing to existing or potential second earners deserves more attention.  

Publication: Real Clear Markets
Image Source: © Kevin Lamarque / Reuters
      
 
 




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Class Notes: Selective College Admissions, Early Life Mortality, and More

This week in Class Notes: The Texas Top Ten Percent rule increased equity and economic efficiency. There are big gaps in U.S. early-life mortality rates by family structure. Locally-concentrated income shocks can persistently change the distribution of poverty within a city. Our top chart shows how income inequality changed in the United States between 2007 and 2016. Tammy Kim describes the effect of the…

       




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Class Notes: College ‘Sticker Prices,’ the Gender Gap in Housing Returns, and More

This week in Class Notes: Fear of Ebola was a powerful force in shaping the 2014 midterm elections. Increases in the “sticker price” of a college discourage students from applying, even when they would be eligible for financial aid. The gender gap in housing returns is large and can explain 30% of the gender gap in wealth accumulation at retirement.…

       




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Webinar: Great levelers or great stratifiers? College access, admissions, and the American middle class

One year after Operation Varsity Blues, and in the midst of one of the greatest crises higher education has ever seen, college admissions and access have never been more important. A college degree has long been seen as a ticket into the middle class, but it is increasingly clear that not all institutions lead to…

       




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Class Notes: Harvard Discrimination, California’s Shelter-in-Place Order, and More

This week in Class Notes: California's shelter-in-place order was effective at mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Asian Americans experience significant discrimination in the Harvard admissions process. The U.S. tax system is biased against labor in favor of capital, which has resulted in inefficiently high levels of automation. Our top chart shows that poor workers are much more likely to keep commuting in…

       




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Alonso returns to McLaren simulator

Fernando Alonso will return to the McLaren simulator on Wednesday as he closes in on a return to the cockpit ahead of the Malaysian Grand Prix




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McLaren won't be getting knocked out in Q1 for long - Alonso

Fernando Alonso is confident McLaren will not be getting knocked out of Q1 for long this season despite his first qualifying session with McLaren leaving him 18th on the grid at the Malaysian Grand Prix




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Hamilton leads McLaren 1-2 as Red Bulls self destruct

Lewis Hamilton led home team-mate Jenson Button for a McLaren 1-2 in the Turkish Grand Prix at Istanbul Park, capitalising on a collision between the Red Bulls of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel




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Red Bull aims to move on as McLaren looks to pounce

Red Bull has vowed to move on from its disastrous race in Turkey for the good of the team as it now faces a serious challenge from McLaren




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McLaren told Hamilton that Button wouldn't pass

Lewis Hamilton was told team-mate Jenson Button would not try to overtake him at the Turkish Grand Prix 10 days ago, seconds before the world champion did so and sparked a duel




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Women’s work boosts middle class incomes but creates a family time squeeze that needs to be eased

In the early part of the 20th century, women sought and gained many legal rights, including the right to vote as part of the 19th Amendment. Their entry into the workforce, into occupations previously reserved for men, and into the social and political life of the nation should be celebrated. The biggest remaining challenge is…

       




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Massa lowers benchmark as McLaren hits more trouble

Felipe Massa showed the first tangible proof of Williams' potential this year by topping the times on the opening day of the final pre-season test in Barcelona as McLaren experienced more problems and Mercedes also suffered a rare reliability issue




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Hamilton leads McLaren front row, Vettel fourth and Alonso seventh

Lewis Hamilton took pole position as part of a McLaren front-row lockout at the Brazilian Grand Prix as championship contenders Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso only managed fourth and eighth respectively




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No penalty after Grosjean/de la Rosa clash

The stewards at the Brazilian Grand Prix have decided to take no further action after investigating a collision between Romain Grosjean and Pedro de la Rosa during qualifying




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Lotus appoints Iley from McLaren

Lotus has announced the appointment of John Iley as performance director, with him joining the team from McLaren




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Button: 'I haven't driven a McLaren like this before'

Jenson Button believes the McLaren MP4-30 has the basis to be the best McLaren he has driven since joining the team in 2010 but admits it will not get close to its full potential at this weekend's Australian Grand Prix




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McLaren needs a 'bucket load' of pace - Button

Jenson Button says McLaren needs a "bucket load" of both pace and reliability to get anywhere close to being competitive at the Australian Grand Prix this weekend




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Button: Back of the grid is no surprise for McLaren

Jenson Button says McLaren was braced for a spot on the back of the grid in Australia and does not think the race will be much easier




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McLaren-Honda working 'relentlessly' - Button

Jenson Button says McLaren and Honda are working flat-out to develop its package but are still bracing themselves for another difficult weekend in Malaysia




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Button: Nothing wrong with McLaren steering

Jenson Button is convinced there is nothing wrong with the McLaren MP4-30, despite team-mate Fernando Alonso's latest suggestion that a steering problem caused him to crash in pre-season testing




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McLaren getting more from Honda PU - Button

Jenson Button was in an optimistic mood following Friday practice in Malaysia after seeing McLaren make a step forward from its dismal Australian Grand Prix pace




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Class Notes: Harvard Discrimination, California’s Shelter-in-Place Order, and More

This week in Class Notes: California's shelter-in-place order was effective at mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Asian Americans experience significant discrimination in the Harvard admissions process. The U.S. tax system is biased against labor in favor of capital, which has resulted in inefficiently high levels of automation. Our top chart shows that poor workers are much more likely to keep commuting in…

       




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Class Notes: Harvard Discrimination, California’s Shelter-in-Place Order, and More

This week in Class Notes: California's shelter-in-place order was effective at mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Asian Americans experience significant discrimination in the Harvard admissions process. The U.S. tax system is biased against labor in favor of capital, which has resulted in inefficiently high levels of automation. Our top chart shows that poor workers are much more likely to keep commuting in…

       




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How to fix the backlog of disability claims


The American people deserve to have a federal government that is both responsive and effective. That simply isn’t the case for more than 1 million people who are awaiting the adjudication of their applications for disability benefits from the Social Security Administration.

Washington can and must do better. This gridlock harms applicants either by depriving them of much-needed support or effectively barring them from work while their cases are resolved because having any significant earnings would immediately render them ineligible. This is unacceptable.

Within the next month, the Government Accountability Office, the nonpartisan congressional watchdog, will launch a study on the issue. More policymakers should follow GAO’s lead. A solution to this problem is long overdue. Here’s how the government can do it.

Congress does not need to look far for an example of how to reduce the SSA backlog. In 2013, the Veterans Administration cut its 600,000-case backlog by 84 percent and reduced waiting times by nearly two-thirds, all within two years. It’s an impressive result.

Why have federal officials dealt aggressively and effectively with that backlog, but not the one at SSA? One obvious answer is that the American people and their representatives recognize a debt to those who served in the armed forces. Allowing veterans to languish while a sluggish bureaucracy dithers is unconscionable. Public and congressional outrage helped light a fire under the bureaucracy. Administrators improved services the old-fashioned way — more staff time. VA employees had to work at least 20 hours overtime per month.

Things are a bit more complicated at SSA, unfortunately. Roughly three quarters of applicants for disability benefits have their cases decided within about nine months and, if denied, decide not to appeal. But those whose applications are denied are legally entitled to ask for a hearing before an administrative law judge — and that is where the real bottleneck begins.

There are too few ALJs to hear the cases. Even in the best of times, maintaining an adequate cadre of ALJs is difficult because normal attrition means that SSA has to hire at least 100 ALJs a year to stay even. When unemployment increases, however, so does the number of applications for disability benefits. After exhausting unemployment benefits, people who believe they are impaired often turn to the disability programs. So, when the Great Recession hit, SSA knew it had to hire many more ALJs. It tried to do so, but SSA cannot act without the help of the Office of Personnel Management, which must provide lists of qualified candidates before agencies can hire them. SSA employs 85 percent of all ALJs and for several years has paid OPM approximately $2 million annually to administer the requisite tests and interviews to establish a register of qualified candidates. Nonetheless, OPM has persistently refused to employ legally trained people to vet ALJ candidates or to update registers. And when SSA sought to ramp up ALJ hiring to cope with the recession challenge, OPM was slow to respond.

In 2009, for example, OPM promised to supply a new register containing names of ALJ candidates. Five years passed before it actually delivered the new list of names. For a time, the number of ALJs deciding cases actually fell. The situation got so bad that the president’s January 2015 budget created a work group headed by the Office of Management and Budget and the Administrative Conference of the United States to try to break the logjam. OPM promised a list for 2015, but insisted it could not change procedures. Not trusting OPM to mend its ways, Congress in October 2015 enacted legislation that explicitly required OPM to administer a new round of tests within the succeeding six months.

These stopgap measures are inadequate to the challenge. Both applicants and taxpayers deserve prompt adjudication of the merits of claims. The million-person backlog and the two-year average waits are bad enough. Many applicants wait far longer. Meanwhile, they are strongly discouraged from working, as anything more than minimal earnings will cause their applications automatically to be denied. Throughout this waiting period, applicants have no means of self-support. Any skills applicants retain atrophy.

The shortage of ALJs is not the only problem. The quality and consistency of adjudication by some ALJs has been called into question. For example, differences in approval rates are so large that differences among applicants cannot plausibly explain them. Some ALJs have processed so many cases that they could not possibly have applied proper standards. In recognition of both problems, SSA has increased oversight and beefed up training. The numbers have improved. But large and troubling variations in workloads and approval rates persist.

For now, political polarization blocks agreement on whether and how to modify eligibility rules and improve incentives to encourage work by those able to work. But there is bipartisan agreement that dragging out the application process benefits no one. While completely eliminating hearing delays is impossible, adequate administrative funding and more, better trained hearing officers would help reduce them. Even if OPM’s past record were better than it is, OPM is now a beleaguered agency, struggling to cope with the fallout from a security breach that jeopardizes the security of the nation and the privacy of millions of current and past federal employees and federal contractors. Mending this breach and establishing new procedures will — and should — be OPM’s top priority.

That’s why, for the sake of everyone concerned, responsibility for screening candidates for administrative law judge positions should be moved, at least temporarily, to another agency, such as the Administrative Conference of the United States. Shortening the period that applicants for disability benefits now spend waiting for a final answer is an achievable goal that can and should be addressed. Our nation’s disabled and its taxpayers deserve better.


Editor's note: This piece originally appeared in Politico.

Authors

Publication: Politico
      
 
 




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On the ground in Myanmar: The Rohingya crisis and a clash of values

During my visit to Myanmar in mid-November, the latest of many since 2010, I witnessed new layers of complexity in the historical and political forces contributing to the Rohingya crisis. While the plight of the Rohingya population has galvanized international opinion, it has reinforced nationalist sentiment within a large segment of the Myanmar population and…

      
 
 




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Africa in the news: COVID-19 impacts African economies and daily lives; clashes in the Sahel

African governments begin borrowing from IMF, World Bank to soften hit from COVID-19 This week, several countries and multilateral organizations announced additional measures to combat the economic fallout from COVID-19 in Africa. Among the actions taken by countries, Uganda’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point to 8 percent and directed…

       




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Congressional Master Class: The Senate Filibuster, Congress and the Federal Reserve


In this podcast, congressional expert Sarah Binder explains why the Senate filibuster is a historical mistake. She talks about her research on Congress’s relationship with the Federal Reserve and addresses whether Congress is more polarized today than it has been in the past. Binder, a senior fellow in Governance Studies, is also a professor of political science at George Washington University and contributor to the Monkey Cage blog.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCAST ON ITUNES »

Show notes:

• The Federal Reserve: Balancing Multiple Mandates (testimony by Alice Rivlin)
Boom! What the Senate Will Be Like When the Nuclear Dust Settles
Beyond the Horse Race to Lead the Fed
Droning on: Thoughts on the Rand Paul “Talking Filibuster”
• Advice and Dissent: The Struggle to Shape the Federal Judiciary
The History of the Filibuster

* In the image, Senator Henry Clay speaks about the Compromise of 1850 in the Old Senate Chamber. Daniel Webster is seated to the left of Clay and John C. Calhoun to the left of the Speaker's chair. (engraving by Robert Whitechurch, ca. 1880, Library of Congress)

Authors

      
 
 




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Class Notes: Harvard Discrimination, California’s Shelter-in-Place Order, and More

This week in Class Notes: California's shelter-in-place order was effective at mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Asian Americans experience significant discrimination in the Harvard admissions process. The U.S. tax system is biased against labor in favor of capital, which has resulted in inefficiently high levels of automation. Our top chart shows that poor workers are much more likely to keep commuting in…

       




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Cities as classrooms: The Urban Thinkscape project


We’re just over midway through the hazy days of summer vacation, and children without access to high quality enrichment opportunities are already slipping behind their wealthier peers. As noted in a recent New York Times article, in addition to the decrease in math proficiency that most kids experience over the break, low-income children also lose more than two months of reading skills—skills they don’t regain during the school year. This compounds the already deep educational disparities found among students of different socioeconomic groups, which can be observed as early as 18 months of age.

Most efforts to address these gaps focus on improving our K-12 educational systems. Yet, children spend an average of 80 percent of their waking time outside of a classroom—a simple, yet startling statistic that highlights the need to explore a broader range of solutions.

As we learned at a recent Brookings event, Urban Thinkscape, an ongoing project from developmental psychologists Kathy Hirsh-Pasek and Roberta Michnick Golinkoff, might be one of those solutions. Drawing on findings from their research on guided play—particularly from interventions like the Ultimate Block Party and The Supermarket Study—the project embeds playful learning activities, such as games and puzzles, into public places where children routinely spend time during non-school hours. Designed by architect Itai Palti, each installation is created with specific learning goals in mind and reflects best practices in psychological research.

With a pilot led by researcher Brenna Hassinger-Das in progress in the West Philadelphia Promise Zone, the project is already revealing important lessons—not only for educators, but for urban planners and policymakers as well.

The first involves the (often under-appreciated) need to work with local residents. Through meetings and focus groups with leaders of community organizations, neighbors, and Promise Zone stakeholders, the team gained a clearer understanding of resident needs, spurred interest in the project, identified potential sites, and improved designs. Residents were brought into the process early, empowered to offer suggestions at several stages, and will continue to be engaged as the project is implemented and assessed.

The upshot? When community members are meaningfully involved—and local wisdom valued—from the onset, residents become invested in the project and feel a sense of ownership of it over the long haul. This not only improves the likelihood that the project will succeed, but also helps foster neighborhood trust and cohesion, and builds social capital that can be applied to future efforts.


BRENNA HASSINGER-DAS - A community focus group gives feedback on the West Philadelphia Urban Thinkscape project, January 21, 2016.

A second lesson is the extent to which a full scaling of the project could help transform distressed neighborhoods through what Project for Public Spaces often refers to as “lighter, quicker, cheaper” interventions.

Many high poverty urban areas are challenged with large numbers of vacant or underutilized properties, as well as dull spaces (like bus stops) that serve only utilitarian functions. The Urban Thinkscape project aims to take such spaces and remake them into opportunities for interaction and learning—and by doing so create tangible improvements to the neighborhood’s physical fabric. While the West Philadelphia pilot has substantial long-term planning behind it, ideally the “playful” installments will be refined over time so they can be more easily and cheaply implemented in other urban neighborhoods.

Finally, the Urban Thinkscape interventions have the potential to advance academic and spatial skills in children, reducing the gap in school readiness, and ultimately fostering better educational and life outcomes.

Many families in high poverty neighborhoods can’t afford extracurricular enrichment activities, particularly during the summer. And even where they might be offered—via community centers, or through other nonprofit initiatives focused on the arts, STEM activities, or sports—children may only experience them at certain times of the week. Urban Thinkscape aims to supplement these activities by embedding learning opportunities into the everyday landscape through interventions that develop numeracy, literacy, and other skills necessary to succeed in school and eventually the workforce. From an urban planning and policy perspective, this individual development is critical to helping build family wealth and vibrant, healthy city neighborhoods.

Though still nascent in its development, the Urban Thinkscape model appears to be a fun, innovative way to give children—and their caregivers—learning opportunities outside the classroom, while creating new gathering spaces and improved public places. In this way, the project is creatively employing the city itself as an agent of change. If the full vision of this work is realized, perhaps we can finally put the brakes on the “summer-slide” such that all kids can start the school year at the top of their game.

Authors

      
 
 




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Class Notes: College ‘Sticker Prices,’ the Gender Gap in Housing Returns, and More

This week in Class Notes: Fear of Ebola was a powerful force in shaping the 2014 midterm elections. Increases in the “sticker price” of a college discourage students from applying, even when they would be eligible for financial aid. The gender gap in housing returns is large and can explain 30% of the gender gap in wealth accumulation at retirement.…

       




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Class Notes: Unequal Internet Access, Employment at Older Ages, and More

This week in Class Notes: The digital divide—the correlation between income and home internet access —explains much of the inequality we observe in people's ability to self-isolate. The labor force participation rate among older Americans and the age at which they claim Social Security retirement benefits have risen in recent years. Higher minimum wages lead to a greater prevalence…

       




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Women’s work boosts middle class incomes but creates a family time squeeze that needs to be eased

In the early part of the 20th century, women sought and gained many legal rights, including the right to vote as part of the 19th Amendment. Their entry into the workforce, into occupations previously reserved for men, and into the social and political life of the nation should be celebrated. The biggest remaining challenge is…

       




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Class Notes: Selective College Admissions, Early Life Mortality, and More

This week in Class Notes: The Texas Top Ten Percent rule increased equity and economic efficiency. There are big gaps in U.S. early-life mortality rates by family structure. Locally-concentrated income shocks can persistently change the distribution of poverty within a city. Our top chart shows how income inequality changed in the United States between 2007 and 2016. Tammy Kim describes the effect of the…

       




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When middle-class incomes collapse, how you gonna pay next month’s rent?

As the coronavirus forces businesses to lay off workers or reduce hours, millions of Americans are seeing their incomes plummet. One of the most pressing concerns (besides staying healthy) is whether these households will be able to pay next month’s rent. Being able to afford decent quality, stable housing in a safe neighborhood is an…

       




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Class Notes: College ‘Sticker Prices,’ the Gender Gap in Housing Returns, and More

This week in Class Notes: Fear of Ebola was a powerful force in shaping the 2014 midterm elections. Increases in the “sticker price” of a college discourage students from applying, even when they would be eligible for financial aid. The gender gap in housing returns is large and can explain 30% of the gender gap in wealth accumulation at retirement.…

       




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COVID-19’s impact on the Brookings Institution’s Spring intern class of 2020

Just after New Year’s, I moved to Washington, D.C. after graduating early from Boston University to begin an events internship in the Brookings main Office of Communications. The Brookings Internship program provides students and recent graduates with a pre-professional experience in the Institution’s research programs and business offices. For two months, I had assisted with…

       




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On immigration, the white working class is fearful


Although a few political analysts have been focusing on the white working class for years, it is only in response to the rise of Donald Trump that this large group of Americans has begun to receive the attention it deserves. Now, thanks to a comprehensive survey that the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) undertook in collaboration with the Brookings Institution, we can speak with some precision about the distinctive attitudes and preferences of these voters.

There are different ways of defining the white working class. Along with several other survey researchers, PRRI defines this group as non-Hispanic whites with less than a college degree, with the additional qualification of being paid by the hour or by the job rather than receiving a salary. No definition is perfect, but this one works pretty well. Most working-class whites have incomes below $50,000; most whites with BAs or more have incomes above $50,000. Most working-class whites rate their financial circumstances as only fair or poor; most college educated whites rate their financial circumstances as good or excellent. Fifty-four percent of working-class whites think of themselves as working class or lower class, compared to only 18 percent of better-educated whites.

The PRRI/Brookings study finds that in many respects, these two groups of white voters see the world very differently. For example, 54 percent of college-educated whites think that America’s culture and way of life have improved since the 1950s; 62 percent of white working-class Americans think that it has changed for the worse. Sixty-eight percent of working-class whites, but only 47 percent of college-educated whites, believe that the American way of life needs to be protected against foreign influences. Sixty-six percent of working-class whites, but only 43 percent of college-educated whites, say that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against blacks and other minorities. In a similar vein, 62 percent of working-class whites believe that discrimination against Christians has become as big a problem as discrimination against other groups, a proposition only 38 percent of college educated whites endorse.

This brings us to the issue of immigration. By a margin of 52 to 35 percent, college-educated whites affirm that today’s immigrants strengthen our country through their talent and hard work. Conversely, 61 percent of white working-class voters say that immigrants weaken us by taking jobs, housing, and health care. Seventy-one percent of working-class whites think that immigrants mostly hurt the economy by driving down wages, a belief endorsed by only 44 percent of college-educated whites. Fifty-nine percent of working-class whites believe that we should make a serious effort to deport all illegal immigrants back to their home countries; only 33 percent of college-educated whites agree. Fifty-five percent of working-class whites think we should build a wall along our border with Mexico, while 61 percent of whites with BAs or more think we should not. Majorities of working-class whites believe that we should make the entry of Syrian refugees into the United States illegal and temporarily ban the entrance of non-American Muslims into our country; about two-thirds of college-educated whites oppose each of these proposals.

Opinions on trade follow a similar pattern. By a narrow margin of 48 to 46 percent, college-educated whites endorse the view that trade agreements are mostly helpful to the United States because they open up overseas markets while 62 percent of working-class whites believe that they are harmful because they send jobs overseas and drive down wages.

It is understandable that working-class whites are more worried that they or their families will become victims of violent crime than are whites with more education. After all, they are more likely to live in neighborhoods with higher levels of social disorder and criminal behavior. It is harder to explain why they are also much more likely to believe that their families will fall victim to terrorism. To be sure, homegrown terrorist massacres of recent years have driven home the message that it can happen to anyone, anywhere. We still need to explain why working-class whites have interpreted this message in more personal terms.

The most plausible interpretation is that working-class whites are experiencing a pervasive sense of vulnerability. On every front—economic, cultural, personal security—they feel threatened and beleaguered. They seek protection against all the forces they perceive as hostile to their cherished way of life—foreign people, foreign goods, foreign ideas, aided and abetted by a government they no longer believe cares about them. Perhaps this is why fully 60 percent of them are willing to endorse a proposition that in previous periods would be viewed as extreme: the country has gotten so far off track that we need a leader who is prepared to break so rules if that is what it takes to set things right.

      
 
 




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Class Notes: Income Segregation, the Value of Longer Leases, and More

This week in Class Notes: Reforming college admissions to boost representation of low and middle-income students could substantially reduce income segregation between institutions and increase intergenerational mobility. The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend increased fertility and reduced the spacing between births, particularly for females age 20-44. Federal judges are more likely to hire female law clerks after serving on a panel…

       




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Middle class marriage is declining, and likely deepening inequality

Over the last few decades, family formation patterns have altered significantly in the U.S., with long-run rises in non-marital births, cohabitation, and single parenthood – although in recent years many of these trends have leveled out.   Importantly, there are increasing class gaps here. Marriage rates have diverged by education level (a good proxy for both social class and permanent income). People with at least a BA are now more likely to get married and stay married compared…

       




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Class Notes: Selective College Admissions, Early Life Mortality, and More

This week in Class Notes: The Texas Top Ten Percent rule increased equity and economic efficiency. There are big gaps in U.S. early-life mortality rates by family structure. Locally-concentrated income shocks can persistently change the distribution of poverty within a city. Our top chart shows how income inequality changed in the United States between 2007 and 2016. Tammy Kim describes the effect of the…

       




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The rise of the middle class safety net

Welfare reform is in the air again. Congressional Republicans are pushing for greater work incentives to be attached to the receipt of certain benefits, especially SNAP and Medicaid. Our colleague Ron Haskins has made the case in favor here; our colleagues Lauren Bauer and Dinae Whitmore Schanzenbach have warned against here. (Brookings is a broad church, you see).…

       




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Class Notes: Barriers to neighborhood choice, wage expectations, and more

This week in Class Notes: Barriers in the housing search process contribute to residential segregation by income. Greater Medicaid eligibility promotes many positive outcomes for children, including increased college enrollment, lower mortality, decreased reliance on the Earned Income Tax Credit, and higher wage incomes for women. The large gender gap in wage expectations closely resembles actual wage differences, and career sorting and negotiation…

       




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Class Notes: Wealth taxation, US wage growth, and more

This week in Class Notes: Both Senator Warren's wealth tax and a popular alternative – a Swiss-style tax on household wealth – would have miniscule effects on income inequality. The ACA Medicaid expansion substantially increased insurance coverage and improved access to health care among unemployed workers. An increased tendency for men and women to remain single may have contributed…