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Virtual Roundtable: Russia in MENA

Invitation Only Research Event

3 April 2020 - 2:30pm to 3:30pm

Event participants

Nikolay Kozhanov, Research Associate Professor, Gulf Studies Center,  Qatar University, Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Tim Eaton, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Sanam Vakil, Senior Research Fellow, Project Director, Future Dynamics of the Gulf, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Russia’s Middle East policy is driven by a complex mixture of traditional factors (such as the ongoing confrontation with the West) and new trends. The Kremlin is keen to maintain its position as an influential external broker. However, it is not confident Russia would be able to respond effectively if forced into a reactive mode by other regional players. The Kremlin therefore seeks to retain initiative and shape the agenda according to its needs and resources. This makes prediction of Moscow’s next moves in the region a challenging, but not impossible, task.

Nikolay Kozhanov will offer remarks on the changes that have taken place in Russia’s strategy since the publication of his research paper Russian Policy Across the Middle East: Motivations and Methods (2018), while Tim Eaton will explore Russia's increasing engagement in the Libyan conflict, and its now central role in Libya's diplomacy.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Webinar: Assessing the Twists and Turns in the US-Iran Stalemate

Research Event

28 April 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:30pm

Event participants

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Founder and Publisher, Bourse & Bazaar
Nasser Hadian, Professor of Political Sciences, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, University of Tehran
Azadeh Zamirirad, Deputy Head, Middle East and Africa Division, SWP Berlin
Ariane Tabatabai, Middle East Fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, US German Marshall Fund; Adjunct Senior Research Scholar, SIPA
Moderator: Sanam Vakil, Deputy Head and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
The webinar will be livestreamed on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Since the start of 2020, Iran has been beset with multiple challenges including the spread of COVID-19, economic pressure from US sanctions, parliamentary elections in February, the killing of Qassem Soleimani and an increase in tensions in Iraq. The Trump administration interprets these domestic and regional challenges faces by Iran as evidence that its maximum pressure campaign is proving to be effective.

In this webinar, speakers will examine the economic and political impact of the Trump administration's policy towards Iran. Panelists will consider how these events are impacting internal dynamics in Iran and examine the economic impact of sanctions. They will also evaluate European diplomatic efforts to preserve the Iran nuclear agreement, and consider the future trajectory of US Iran policy and the potential for escalation in the region.
 
This webinar is part of the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Programme's Online Event Series. The event will be held on the record.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Transitional Justice for the Victims of ISIS in Syria

28 April 2020

This paper aims to assist the region’s local authorities, and their key foreign backers, in understanding how transitional justice can provide alternative avenues for holding local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities.

Haid Haid

Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

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A fighter with the Syrian Democratic Forces monitors prisoners accused of being affiliated with ISIS, at a prison in the northeastern Syrian city of Hassakeh on 25 October 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • Following the territorial defeat of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in the region is now grappling with the task of quickly dealing with thousands of the group’s detained members while bringing justice to their victims. To that end, local authorities are focusing on the use of counterterrorism laws and courts to charge captured ISIS members and determine their guilt accordingly.
  • The piecemeal approach to justice is deeply flawed, and raises particular concerns about due process. No precise instruments exist to determine the personal responsibility of ISIS individuals for specific crimes, or for their role in war crimes committed by the group. In any event, the scale of the crimes and the number of victims – as well as severe shortages of resources and workers – make dispensation of justice extremely difficult through the traditional legal system.
  • Not all detained ISIS members receive prison sentences. Individuals who did not hold senior roles in the group’s apparatus and are not accused of ‘major’ crimes (in practice, largely defined as fighting for ISIS and murder) are being released under limited reconciliation deals with tribal leaders. But the involvement of local community leaders in those efforts is not enough to ensure positive results. Many victims are upset at seeing ISIS members walk free without even admitting their guilt publicly or apologizing for the pain they caused.
  • To overcome the limitations of the current, counterterrorism-focused framework, a ‘transitional justice’ approach could provide judicial and non-judicial instruments to establish accountability for ISIS crimes and reduce community resistance to the reintegration of group members. A combination of non-judicial mechanisms such as truth commissions, missing persons’ committees, and reparations and victim-healing programmes could play a vital role in providing ISIS victims with a sense of justice while contributing to peacebuilding and stability.
  • Ignoring the urgency of developing a long-term plan to serve justice and contribute to community healing will almost certainly allow ISIS to continue to prevent the recovery and development of northeastern Syria. This, in turn, risks undermining the stability of the country and the region at large.




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Nuclear Tensions Must Not Be Sidelined During Coronavirus

1 May 2020

Ana Alecsandru

Research Assistant, International Security Programme
Although the pandemic means the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon) is postponed, the delay could be an opportunity to better the health of the NPT regime.

2020-05-01-Iran-Peace-Nuclear

Painted stairs in Tehran, Iran symbolizing hope. Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

Despite face-to-face diplomatic meetings being increasingly rare during the current disruption, COVID-19 will ultimately force a redefinition of national security and defence spending priorities, and this could provide the possibility of an improved political climate at RevCon when it happens in 2021.

With US presidential elections due in November and a gradual engagement growing between the EU and Iran, there could be a new context for more cooperation between states by 2021. Two key areas of focus over the coming months will be the arms control talks between the United States and Russia, and Iran’s compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal.

It is too early to discern the medium- and longer-term consequences of COVID-19 for defence ministries, but a greater focus on societal resilience and reinvigorating economic productivity will likely undercut the rationale for expensive nuclear modernization.

Therefore, extending the current New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) would be the best, most practical option to give both Russia and the United States time to explore more ambitious multilateral arms control measures, while allowing their current focus to remain on the pandemic and economic relief.

Continuing distrust

But with the current treaty — which limits nuclear warheads, missiles, bombers, and launchers — due to expire in February 2021, the continuing distrust between the United States and Russia makes this extension hard to achieve, and a follow-on treaty even less likely.

Prospects for future bilateral negotiations are hindered by President Donald Trump’s vision for a trilateral arms control initiative involving both China and Russia. But China opposes this on the grounds that its nuclear arsenal is far smaller than that of the two others.

While there appears to be agreement that the nuclear arsenals of China, France, and the UK (the NPT nuclear-weapons states) and those of the states outside the treaty (India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel) will all have to be taken into account going forward, a practical mechanism for doing so proves elusive.

If Joe Biden wins the US presidency he seems likely to pursue an extension of the New START treaty and could also prevent a withdrawal from the Open Skies treaty, the latest arms control agreement targeted by the Trump administration.

Under a Biden administration, the United States would also probably re-join the JCPOA, provided Tehran returned to strict compliance with the deal. Biden could even use the team that negotiated the Iran deal to advance the goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

For an NPT regime already confronted by a series of longstanding divergences, it is essential that Iran remains a signatory especially as tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated recently — due to the Qassim Suleimani assassination and the recent claim by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps to have successfully placed the country’s first military satellite into orbit.

This announcement raised red flags among experts about whether Iran is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles due to the dual-use nature of space technology. The satellite launch — deeply troubling for Iran’s neighbours and the EU countries — may strengthen the US argument that it is a cover for the development of ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

However, as with many other countries, Iran is struggling with a severe coronavirus crisis and will be pouring its scientific expertise and funds into that rather than other efforts — including the nuclear programme.

Those European countries supporting the trading mechanism INSTEX (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) for sending humanitarian goods into Iran could use this crisis to encourage Iran to remain in compliance with the JCPOA and its NPT obligations.

France, Germany and the UK (the E3) have already successfully concluded the first transaction, which was to facilitate the export of medical goods from Europe to Iran. But the recent Iranian escalatory steps will most certainly place a strain on the preservation of this arrangement.

COVID-19 might have delayed Iran’s next breach of the 2015 nuclear agreement but Tehran will inevitably seek to strengthen its hand before any potential negotiations with the United States after the presidential elections.

As frosty US-Iranian relations — exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic — prevent diplomatic negotiations, this constructive engagement between the E3 and Iran might prove instrumental in reviving the JCPOA and ensuring Iran stays committed to both nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.

While countries focus their efforts on tackling the coronavirus pandemic, it is understandable resources may be limited for other global challenges, such as the increasing risk of nuclear weapons use across several regions.

But the potential ramifications of the COVID-19 crisis for the NPT regime are profound. Ongoing tensions between the nuclear-armed states must not be ignored while the world’s focus is elsewhere, and the nuclear community should continue to work together to progress nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, building bridges of cooperation and trust that can long outlast the pandemic.




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Webinar: Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Transitional Justice for the Victims of ISIS in Syria

Research Event

12 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm
Add to Calendar

Haid Haid, Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Sara Kayyali, Syria Researcher, Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch
Moderator: Lina Khatib, Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

You can register your interest here. Alternatively, you can watch the webinar live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Following the territorial defeat of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in the region is now grappling with the task of quickly dealing with thousands of the group’s detained members while bringing justice to their victims. To that end, local authorities are focusing on the use of counterterrorism laws and courts to charge captured ISIS members and determine their guilt accordingly.

In a recent research paper, author Haid Haid argues that this approach to justice is deeply flawed as it raises concerns about due process and lacks the precise instruments to determine the personal responsibility of ISIS individuals for specific crimes, or for their role in war crimes committed by the group. The paper proposes that a ‘transitional justice’ approach could provide judicial and non-judicial instruments to establish accountability for ISIS crimes and reduce community resistance to the reintegration of group members.

In this webinar, part of the MENA Programme’s Online Event Series, speakers will examine the benefits of such an approach to justice for overcoming the limitations of the current, counterterrorism-focused framework. Panelists will discuss the alternative mechanisms local authorities and their key foreign backers can use to hold local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities.
 
The event will be held on the record.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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COVID-19 Crisis – Business as Usual for Gaza?

6 May 2020

Mohammed Abdalfatah

Asfari Foundation Academy Fellow
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented challenges, economic collapse and strict lockdowns in many parts of the world. For the people of Gaza, this reality is nothing new.

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Palestinians light fireworks above the rubble during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan amid concerns about the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Gaza City , 30 April 2020. Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

In August 2012, when the UN released its report Gaza in 2020: A liveable place?, they could not have imagined what the world would look like in 2020: cities under lockdown, restrictions on movement, border closures, widespread unemployment, economic collapse, fear and anxiety and, above all, uncertainty about what the future holds.

For Gaza’s population of 2 million people this reality is nothing new. The conditions that the rest of the world are currently experiencing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is similar to the tight blockade Gaza has been living under ever since Hamas took over in 2007. Israel has imposed severe restrictions on the movement of people and goods, youth unemployment has reached 60 per cent, and over 80 per cent of Gaza’s population are now dependent on international aid.

The people of Gaza are having to face the COVID-19 crisis already at a disadvantage, with poor infrastructure, limited resources and a shortage of the most basic services, such as water and power supply. It also has a fragile health system, with hospitals lacking essential medical supplies and equipment, as well as the capacity to deal with the outbreak as there are only 84 ICU beds and ventilators available.

 

Meanwhile, intra-Palestinian divisions have persisted and were evident in the initial reaction to the pandemic. When President Mahmoud Abbas announced a state of emergency, it took two days for the Hamas-led government in Gaza to follow suit and shut down schools and universities. They later made a separate emergency appeal to address the crisis and prepare for a COVID-19 response in Gaza. This lack of coordination is typical of the way the Palestinian Authority and Hamas approach crisis situations.

After the initial uncoordinated response, Hamas, as the de-facto ruler of Gaza, has asserted its ability to control Gaza’s borders by putting in place quarantine measures for everyone who enters the strip, whether through the Erez checkpoint with Israel or the Rafah border with Egypt. They have also assigned 21 hospitals, hotels, and schools as compulsory quarantine centres for all arrivals from abroad, who have to stay in quarantine for 21 days. In comparison, there are 20 quarantine centres in the West Bank.  These strict measures have prevented the spread of the virus in the community and confined it to the quarantine centres, with only 20 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of 6 May. Gaza’s de-facto authorities have also been able to monitor markets and prices to ensure the availability of essential goods.

Faced with a major crisis, Al-Qassam Brigades – the armed wing of Hamas – have tried to play the role of a national army by participating in efforts to fight the pandemic. They have relatively good logistical capacity and have contributed to the construction of two quarantine facilities with a total capacity of 1,000 units to prepare for more arrivals into Gaza. At the local level, municipalities have been disinfecting public spaces and facilities in addition to disseminating information about the virus and related preventative and protective measures. Other precautionary measures put in place include closing the weekly open markets, and restricting social gatherings like weddings and funerals.

Despite COVID-19, it’s business as usual when it comes to international dealings with Gaza. The key parties in the conflict – Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority – along with the main external actors – Egypt, the United Nations and Qatar – have continued to stick to their policies aimed at keeping the security situation under control and preventing further escalation. Although Israel has allowed entry of pharmaceutical supplies and medical equipment into Gaza during the pandemic, it has kept its restrictions on the movement of goods and people in place, while keeping a close eye on the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Gaza – a major outbreak here would be a nightmare scenario for Israel.

Meanwhile, Qatar has continued to address the humanitarian and economic needs of Gaza in an attempt to ease the pressure and prevent further escalation. It has pledged $150 million over the next six months to help families in Gaza from poorer backgrounds. Gaza has also been discussed by the Middle East Quartet, as Nickolay Mladenov, the UN special coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, expressed his concern about the risk of a disease outbreak in Gaza during a call with the members of the Quartet.

Amid the pandemic, threats are still being exchanged between Israel and Hamas. The Israeli defence minister, Naftali Bennett, requested that in return for providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, Hamas agrees to return the remains of two Israeli soldiers killed in the 2014 war. While openly rejecting Bennett's statement, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has offered to move forward with a prisoner swap deal if Israel agrees to release elderly prisoners and detainees in addition to detained women and children. Though dealing with its own COVID-19 outbreak, Egypt has started to mediate between the two parties in an attempt to stabilize the situation and reach a prisoner swap deal.

In the wake of this pandemic, lessons should be learned and policies should be examined, by all parties. Firstly, Israel should re-evaluate its security measures towards Gaza by easing restrictions on movement and trade which would have a positive impact on living conditions for Gaza’s population. The current measures have proven to be unsustainable and have contributed to the endless cycle of violence. Secondly, the intra-Palestinian division should end, to save Palestinians from contradictory policies and insufficient capacity on both sides. In fact, all previous attempts have failed to end this self-destructive division and this is due to the absence of political will on both sides. Elections seem to be the only viable path towards unity. Finally, efforts by the international community should go beyond stabilizing the security situation and ongoing crisis inside Gaza, where disruption of normal life is the norm.

While the world has reacted to this pandemic with a whole host of new policies and emergency measures, it has remained business as usual when dealing with Gaza. Should COVID-19 spread in Gaza, its people – who have already paid the price of a continuous blockade and intra-Palestinian division for 13 years – will pay a heavy price yet again. However, this time it is not a crisis that they alone will have to face.




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Evidence Against an Important Role of Plasma Insulin and Glucagon Concentrations in the Increase in EGP Caused by SGLT2 Inhibitors

Sodium–glucose cotransport 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) lower plasma glucose but stimulate endogenous glucose production (EGP). The current study examined the effect of dapagliflozin on EGP while clamping plasma glucose, insulin, and glucagon concentrations at their fasting level. Thirty-eight patients with type 2 diabetes received an 8-h measurement of EGP ([3-3H]-glucose) on three occasions. After a 3-h tracer equilibration, subjects received 1) dapagliflozin 10 mg (n = 26) or placebo (n = 12); 2) repeat EGP measurement with the plasma glucose concentration clamped at the fasting level; and 3) repeat EGP measurement with inhibition of insulin and glucagon secretion with somatostatin infusion and replacement of basal plasma insulin and glucagon concentrations. In study 1, the change in EGP (baseline to last hour of EGP measurement) in subjects receiving dapagliflozin was 22% greater (+0.66 ± 0.11 mg/kg/min, P < 0.05) than in subjects receiving placebo, and it was associated with a significant increase in plasma glucagon and a decrease in the plasma insulin concentration compared with placebo. Under glucose clamp conditions (study 2), the change in plasma insulin and glucagon concentrations was comparable in subjects receiving dapagliflozin and placebo, yet the difference in EGP between dapagliflozin and placebo persisted (+0.71 ± 0.13 mg/kg/min, P < 0.01). Under pancreatic clamp conditions (study 3), dapagliflozin produced an initial large decrease in EGP (8% below placebo), followed by a progressive increase in EGP that was 10.6% greater than placebo during the last hour. Collectively, these results indicate that 1) the changes in plasma insulin and glucagon concentration after SGLT2i administration are secondary to the decrease in plasma glucose concentration, and 2) the dapagliflozin-induced increase in EGP cannot be explained by the increase in plasma glucagon or decrease in plasma insulin or glucose concentrations.




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Can fluorescence-guided surgery help identify all lesions in unknown locations or is the integrated use of a roadmap created by preoperative imaging mandatory? A blinded study in prostate cancer patients.

Rationale: Lymphatic tracers can help visualize the lymphatic drainage patterns and sentinel nodes of individual prostate cancer patients. To determine the role of nuclear medicine, in particular the positional guidance of a SPECT/CT-based 3D imaging roadmap, in this process we studied to which extend fluorescence-guidance underestimated the number of target lesions. Methods: SPECT/CT imaging was performed after intraprostatic tracer administration of either ICG-99mTc-nanocolloid (hybrid tracer group) or 99mTc-nanocolloid to create a roadmap that depicted all sentinel nodes (SNs). Patients who received 99mTc-nanocolloid were injected with "free" ICG immediately prior to surgery ("free" ICG group). Before unblinding, fluorescence-guidance was used for intraoperative SN identification. This was followed by extended pelvic lymph node dissection (ePLND). Following unblinding of the SPECT/CT images, the number of missed SN’s were recorded and their resection was pursued when the anatomy allowed. Results: Preoperative SPECT/CT revealed no differences in the SN identification rate between ICG-99mTc-nanocolloid and 99mTc-nanocolloid. However, fluorescence-guidance only allowed intraoperative removal of all SNs in 40% of patients in the hybrid tracer group and in 20% of patients in the "free" ICG group. Overall, 75.9% of the intraoperatively resected SNs in the hybrid tracer group and 51.8% of the SNs in the "free" ICG group were removed solely under fluorescence-guidance. During ePLND 22 additional SNs were resected (7 in the hybrid tracer group and 15 in the "free" ICG group). After unblinding 18 remaining SNs were identified (6 in the hybrid group and 12 in the "free" ICG group). In the "free" ICG group, ex vivo evaluation of the excised specimens revealed that 14 SNs removed under ePLND or after unblinding contained radioactivity but no fluorescence. Conclusion: The preoperative imaging roadmap provided by SPECT/CT enhanced the detection of prostate SNs in more ectopic locations in 17 of the 25 patients and the hybrid tracer ICG-99mTc-nanocolloid was shown to outperform "free" ICG. Overall, fluorescence-guided pelvic nodal surgery underestimated the number of SNs in 60-80% of patients.




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Combined Visual and Semi-quantitative Evaluation Improves Outcome Prediction by Early Mid-treatment 18F-fluoro-deoxi-glucose Positron Emission Tomography in Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma.

The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive and prognostic value of interim FDG PET (iPET) in evaluating early response to immuno-chemotherapy after two cycles (PET-2) in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) by applying two different methods of interpretation: the Deauville visual five-point scale (5-PS) and a change in standardised uptake value by semi-quantitative evaluation. Methods: 145 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL underwent pre-treatment PET (PET-0) and PET-2 assessment. PET-2 was classified according to both the visual 5-PS and percentage SUV changes (SUV). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to compare the accuracy of the two methods for predicting progression-free survival (PFS). Survival estimates, based on each method separately and combined, were calculated for iPET-positive (iPET+) and iPET-negative (iPET–) groups and compared. Results: Both with visual and SUV-based evaluations significant differences were found between the PFS of iPET– and iPET+ patient groups (p<0.001). Visually the best negative (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) occurred when iPET was defined as positive if Deauville score 4-5 (89% and 59%, respectively). Using the 66% SUV cut-off value, reported previously, NPV and PPV were 80 and 76%, respectively. SUV at 48.9% cut-off point, reported for the first time here, produced 100% specificity along with the highest sensitivity (24%). Visual and semi-quantitative SUV<48.9% assessment of each PET-2 gave the same PET-2 classification (positive or negative) in 70% (102/145) of all patients. This combined classification delivered NPV and PPV of 89% and 100% respectively, and all iPET+ patients failed to achieve or remain in remission. Conclusion: In this large consistently treated and assessed series of DLBCL, iPET had good prognostic value interpreted either visually or semi-quantitatively. We determined that the most effective SUV cut-off was at 48.9%, and that when combined with visual 5-PS assessment, a positive PET-2 was highly predictive of treatment failure.




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Label-free Visualization of Early Cancer Hepatic Micrometastasis and Intraoperative Image-guided Surgery by Photoacoustic Imaging

Objectives: The detection of cancer micrometastasis for early diagnosis and treatment poses a great challenge for conventional imaging techniques. The aim of study is to evaluate the performance of photoacoustic imaging (PAI) in detecting hepatic micrometastases from melanoma in a very early stage and perform tumor resection by intraoperative photoacoustic image-guidance. Methods: In vivo studies were performed by following protocols approved by the Ethical Committee for Animal Research at Xiamen University. First, a B16 melanoma hepatic metastasis mouse model (n = 10) was established to study the development of micrometastases in vivo. Next, the hepatic metastasis mice models were imaged by scalable PAI instrument, ultrasound, 9.4 T high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), and bioluminescence imaging. Photoacoustic images acquired with optical wavelengths spanning from 680 to 850 nm were spectrally unmixed by using a linear least-squares method to differentiate various components. Differences in the signal-to-background ratios among different modalities were determined with the two-tailed paired t test. The diagnosis results were assessed with histologic examinations. Excised liver samples from patients diagnosed with hepatic cancer were also examined to identify tumor boundary. In vivo metastatic melanoma removal in surgery was precisely guided by the portable PAI system. Results: PAI achieved as small as ~400 µm hepatic melanoma detection at a depth up to 7 mm in vivo, which could early detect small melanoma compared with ultrasound and MRI in mouse models. The signal ratio of tumor-to-liver acquired with PAI in micrometastases at 8 days (4.2 ± 0.2, n = 6) and 14 days (9.2 ± 0.4, n = 5) were significantly higher than those obtained with PET/CT (1.8 ± 0.1, n = 5 and 4.5 ± 0.2, n = 5, P <0.001 for both). Functional PAI provided dynamic oxygen saturation changes during tumor growth. The limit of detection was measured to be approximately 219 cells per microliter in vitro. We successfully performed intraoperative photoacoustic image-guided surgery in vivo using the rapid portable PAI system. Conclusion: Our findings offer a rapid and effective tool to noninvasively detect micrometastases and guide intraoperative resection as a complementary clinical imaging application.




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Radiation Dosimetry in 177Lu-PSMA-617 Therapy Using a Single Post-treatment SPECT/CT: A Novel Methodology to Generate Time- and Tissue-specific Dose Factors

Calculation of radiation dosimetry in targeted nuclear medicine therapies is traditionally resource-intensive requiring multiple post-therapy SPECT acquisitions. An alternative approach is to take advantage of existing pharmacokinetic data from these smaller cohorts to enable dose computation from a single post-treatment scan in a manner that may be applied to a much broader patient population. Methods: In this work, a technical description for simplified dose estimation is presented and applied to assessment of 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy (Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen) for metastatic prostate cancer. By normalizing existing time-activity curves to a single measurement time, it is possible to calculate a mean and range of time-integrated activity values which relate to radiation absorbed dose. To assist with accurate pharmacokinetic modelling of the training cohort, a method for contour-guided image registration was developed. Results: Tissue-specific dose conversion factors for common post-treatment imaging times are reported along with a characterization of added uncertainty in comparison to a traditional serial imaging protocol. Single time point dose factors for tumor were determined to be 11.0, 12.1, 13.6, and 15.2 Gy per MBq/mL at image times of 24, 48, 72, and 96 hours, respectively. For normal tissues, parotid gland factors were 6.7, 9.4, 13.3, and 19.3 Gy per MBq/mL and kidneys were 7.1, 10.3, 15.0, and 22.0 Gy per MBq/mL at those times. Tumor dose estimates were most accurate using delayed scanning at times beyond 72 hours. Dose to healthy tissues is best characterized by scanning patients in the first two days of treatment owing to the larger degree of tracer clearance in this early phase. Conclusion: The work demonstrates a means for efficient dose estimation in 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy. By providing methods to simplify and potentially automate radiation dosimetry we hope to accelerate the understanding of radiobiology and development of dose-response models in this unique therapeutic context.




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PET/MRI versus PET/CT in whole-body staging: results from a unicenter observational study in 1003 subsequent examinations

Purpose: To investigate differences between positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging (PET/MRI) and PET/computed tomography (PET/CT) in lesion detection and classification in oncological whole-body examinations and to investigate radiation exposure differences between both modalities. Material and Methods: In this prospective, single-center, observational study 1003 oncological examinations (918 patients, mean age 57.8±14.4y) were included. Patients underwent PET/CT and subsequent PET/MRI (149.8±49.7min after tracer administration). Examinations were reviewed by radiologists and nuclear medicine physicians in consensus. Additional findings, characterization of indetermiante findings in PETCT, missed findings in PET/MRI including their clinical relevance and effective dose of both modalities were investigated. McNemar’s test was used to compare lesion detection between both hybrid imaging modalities (p<0.001 indicating statistical significance). Results: Additional information in PET/MRI was reported in 26.3% (264/1003) of examinations compared to PET/CT (p<0.001). Of these, additional malignant findings were detected in 5.3% (53/1003), leading to a change in TNM-staging in 2.9% (29/1003) due to PET/MRI. Definite lesion classification of indeterminate PET/CT findings was possible in 11.1% (111/1003) with PET/MRI. In 2.9% (29/1003), lesions detected in PET/CT were not visible in PET/MRI. Malignant lesions were missed in 1.2% (12/1003) by PET/MRI leading to a change in TNM-staging in 0.5% (5/1003). The estimated mean effective-dose for whole-body PET/CT amounted to 17.6±8.7mSv in comparison to 3.6±1.4mSv in PET/MRI, resulting in a potential dose reduction of 79.6% (p<0.001). Conclusion: PET/MRI improves lesion detection and potentially reduces additional examinations in tumor staging. Especially younger patients may benefit from the clinically relevant dose reduction of PET/MRI compared to PET/CT.




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Mapping prostate cancer lesions pre/post unsuccessful salvage lymph node dissection using repeat PSMA-PET

Introduction: The aim of this study was to analyze patterns of persistent versus recurrent or new PET lesions in a selected patient cohort with PSA persistence following salvage lymph node dissection (SLND) and pre/post procedure prostate-specific membrane antigen ligand positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET). Material and Methods: 16 patients were included in this multicenter study. Inclusion criteria were: a) PSMA-PET performed for biochemical recurrence before SLND (pre-SLND PET) and b) repeat PSMA-PET performed for persistently elevated PSA level (≥0.1 ng/mL) ≥6 weeks after SLND (post-SLND PET). Image analysis was performed by three independent nuclear medicine physicians applying the molecular imaging TNM system PROMISE. Lesions were confirmed by histopathology, presence on correlative CT/MRI/bone scan or PSA response after focal therapy. Results: post-SLND PET identified PCa-lesions in 88% (14/16) of patients with PSA persistence after SLND. Median PSA was 1.2 ng/mL (IQR, 0.6-2.8 ng/mL). Disease was confined to the pelvis in 56% of patients (9/16) and most of these men had common iliac (6/16, 38%) and internal iliac lymph node metastases (6/16, 38%). Extrapelvic disease was detected in 31% of patients (5/16). In pre- and post-SLND PET comparison, 10/16 had at least one lesion already detected at baseline (63% PET persistence); 4/16 had new lesions only (25% PET recurrence); 2 had no disease on post-SLND PET. All validated regions (11 regions in 9 patients) were true positive. 9/14 (64%) patients underwent repeat local therapies after SLND (7/14 radiotherapy, 2/14 surgery). Conclusion: SLND of pelvic nodal metastases was often not complete according to PSMA-PET. About two thirds of patients had PET positive nodal disease after SLND already seen on pre-SLND PSMA-PET. Notably, about one quarter of patients had new lesions, not detected by pre-surgical PSMA-PET.




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Imaging P-glycoprotein Induction at the Blood-Brain Barrier of a Beta-Amyloidosis Mouse Model with 11C-Metoclopramide PET

P-glycoprotein (ABCB1) plays an important role at the blood-brain barrier (BBB) in promoting the clearance of neurotoxic beta-amyloid (Aß) peptides from the brain into the blood. ABCB1 expression and activity were found to be decreased in the brains of Alzheimer disease (AD) patients. Treatment with drugs which induce cerebral ABCB1 activity may be a promising approach to delay the build-up of Aß deposits in the brain by enhancing the clearance of Aß peptides from the brain. The aim of this study was to investigate whether PET with the weak ABCB1 substrate radiotracer 11C-metoclopramide can measure ABCB1 induction at the BBB in a beta-amyloidosis mouse model (APP/PS1-21 mice) and in wild-type mice. Methods: Groups of wild-type and APP/PS1-21 mice aged 50 or 170 days underwent 11C-metoclopramide baseline PET scans or scans after intraperitoneal treatment with the rodent pregnane X receptor (PXR) activator 5-pregnen-3β-ol-20-one-16α-carbonitrile (PCN, 25 mg/kg) or its vehicle over 7 days. At the end of the PET scans, brains were harvested for immunohistochemical analysis of ABCB1 and Aß levels. In separate groups of mice, radiolabeled metabolites of 11C-metoclopramide were determined in plasma and brain at 15 min after radiotracer injection. As an outcome parameter of cerebral ABCB1 activity, the elimination slope of radioactivity washout from the brain (kE,brain) was calculated. Results: PCN treatment resulted in an increased clearance of radioactivity from the brain as reflected by significant increases in kE,brain (from +26% to +54% relative to baseline). Immunohistochemical analysis confirmed ABCB1 induction in the brains of PCN-treated APP/PS1-21 mice with a concomitant decrease in Aß levels. There was a significant positive correlation between kE,brain values and ABCB1 levels in the brain. In wild-type mice, a significant age-related decrease in kE,brain values was found. Metabolite analysis showed that the majority of radioactivity in the brain was composed of unmetabolized 11C-metoclopramide in all animal groups. Conclusion: 11C-metoclopramide can measure ABCB1 induction in the mouse brain without the need to consider an arterial input function and may find potential application in AD patients to non-invasively evaluate strategies to enhance the clearance properties of the BBB.




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18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography / Computed Tomography in Left-Ventricular Assist Device Infection: Initial Results Supporting the Usefulness of Image-Guided Therapy

Background: Accurate definition of the extent and severity of left-ventricular assist device (LVAD) infection may facilitate therapeutic decision making and targeted surgical intervention. Here, we explore the value of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) for guidance of patient management. Methods: Fifty-seven LVAD-carrying patients received 85 whole-body 18F-FDG PET/CT scans for the work-up of device infection. Clinical follow-up was obtained over a period of up to two years. Results: PET/CT showed various patterns of infectious involvement of the 4 LVAD components: driveline entry point (77% of cases), subcutaneous driveline path (87%), pump pocket (49%) and outflow tract (58%). Driveline smears revealed staphylococcus or pseudomonas strains as the underlying pathogen in a majority of cases (48 and 34%, respectively). At receiver-operating characteristics analysis, an 18F-FDG standardized uptake value (SUV) >2.5 was most accurate to identify smear-positive driveline infection. Infection of 3 or all 4 LVAD components showed a trend towards lower survival vs infection of 2 or less components (P = 0.089), while involvement of thoracic lymph nodes was significantly associated with adverse outcome (P = 0.001 for nodal SUV above vs below median). Finally, patients that underwent early surgical revision within 3 months after PET/CT (n = 21) required significantly less inpatient hospital care during follow-up when compared to those receiving delayed surgical revision (n = 11; p<0.05). Conclusion: Whole-body 18F-FDG PET/CT identifies the extent of LVAD infection and predicts adverse outcome. Initial experience suggests that early image-guided surgical intervention may facilitate a less complicated subsequent course.




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11C-choline PET/CT in recurrent prostate cancer: retrospective analysis in a large US patient series

Purpose: To evaluate 11C-choline PET/CT detection performance for biochemically recurrent prostate cancer (PCa) in a large non-European cohort in the context of emerging evidence for PSMA PET in this setting, and to map patterns of PCa recurrence. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 11C-choline PET/CT scans from 287 patients who were enrolled onto an imaging protocol based on rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels (mean:3.43 ng/mL, median:0.94 ng/mL, range:0.15–89.91) and suspected recurrent PCa. A total of 187 patients had undergone primary radical prostatectomy (RP; 79/187 had secondary radiotherapy), 30 had undergone primary radiotherapy (RT), and 70 had persistent PSA elevation after receiving initial treatment (69 post-RP, 1 post-RT). The level of suspicion for recurrence on 11C-choline PET/CT was scored (0:negative, 1:equivocal, 2:positive) by two readers. The correlation between 11C-choline PET/CT positivity and initial treatment, Gleason score, NCCN stage, PSA level, PSA doubling time, PSA velocity, and time between initial treatment and PET imaging was evaluated. Prostate Cancer Molecular Imaging Standardized Evaluation (PROMISE) criteria were used to map 11C-choline recurrence patterns. Results: Considering scores 1 and 2 as positives, consensus between the two readers deemed 66% of the 11C-choline PET/CT scans as positive. When sorted by PSA level, 45% of patients with PSA<0.5 ng/mL, 56% of patients with PSA 0.5–0.99 ng/mL, 70% of patients with PSA 1.0–1.99 ng/mL, and 90% of patients with PSA ≥2.0 ng/mL scored either 1 or 2 on 11C-choline PET/CT scans. When considering scores of 2 only, 11C-choline PET/CT positivity was 54% (28%, 46%, 62%, and 81%, respectively, for patients with PSA <0.5 ng/mL, 0.5–0.99 ng/mL, 1.0–1.99 ng/mL, and ≥2.0 ng/mL). In multivariate analysis, only the PSA level was significantly associated with scan positivity. Pattern analysis showed that pelvic lymph nodes were the most common site of recurrence, and 28% of patients had 11C-choline-positive suspected recurrences outside the initial treatment field. Conclusion: 11C-choline PET/CT can detect PCa recurrence even among patients with low PSA levels when interpretation accounts for the clinical context, providing a certain pre-test probability. Until PSMA agents are fully approved for PCa, choline PET/CT may provide clinical utility.




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Quantitative 3D assessment of 68Ga-DOTATOC PET/MRI with diffusion-weighted imaging to assess imaging markers for gastroendopancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: Preliminary results

68Ga-DOTATOC-PET/MRI (68Gallium-DOTATOC-positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging) combines the advantages of PET in the acquisition of metabolic-functional information with the high soft tissue contrast of MRI. Standardized uptake values (SUV) in tumors were suggested as a measure of somatostatin receptor expression. A challenge with receptor ligands is, that the distribution volume is confined to tissues with tracer-uptake, potentially limiting SUV quantification. In this study, different functional, three-dimensional (3D) SUV, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) parameters and arterial tumor enhancement were tested for the characterization of gastroendopancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET). Methods: For this single-center, cross-sectional study, 22 patients with 24 histologically confirmed GEP-NET lesions (15 men/7 women; median, 61 years, range, 43-81 years), who received hybrid 68Ga-DOTA-PET/MRI examinations at 3T between January 2017 and July 2019 met eligibility criteria. SUVs, tumor-to-background ratios (TBR), the total functional tumor volume (TFTV), ADCmean and ADCmin were measured based on volumes of interest (VOI) and examined with receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine cut-off values for differentiation between low and intermediate grade GEP-NET. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients were used to assess correlations between functional imaging parameters. Results: The ratio of PET-derived SUVmean and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)-derived ADCmin was introduced as a combined variable to predict tumor grade, outperforming single predictors. Based on a threshold ratio of 0.03 to be exceeded, tumors could be classified as grade 2 with a sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 100%. SUV and functional ADC values as well as arterial contrast enhancement parameters showed non-significant and mostly negligible correlations. Conclusion: As receptor density and tumor cellularity appear to be independent, potentially complementary phenomena, the combined PET/MRI ratio SUVmean/ADCmin may be used as a novel biomarker, allowing to differentiate between grade 1 and 2 GEP-NET.




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Early Detection in a Mouse Model of Pancreatic Cancer by Imaging DNA Damage Response Signalling

Rationale: Despite its widespread use in oncology, the PET radiotracer 18F-FDG is ineffective for improving early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). An alternative strategy for early detection of pancreatic cancer involves visualisation of high-grade pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasias (PanIN-3), generally regarded as the non-invasive precursors of PDAC. The DNA damage response is known to be hyper-activated in late-stage PanINs. Therefore, we investigated whether the SPECT imaging agent, 111In-anti-H2AX-TAT, allows visualisation of the DNA damage repair marker H2AX in PanIN-3s in an engineered mouse model of PDAC, to facilitate early detection of PDAC. Methods: Genetically engineered KPC mice (KRasLSL.G12D/+; p53LSL.R172H/+; PdxCre) were imaged with 18F-FDG and 111In-anti-H2AX-TAT. PanIN/PDAC presence visualised by histology was compared with autoradiography and immunofluorescence. Separately, the survival of KPC mice imaged with 111In-anti-H2AX-TAT was evaluated. Results: In KPC mouse pancreata, H2AX expression was increased in high-grade PanINs, but not in PDAC, corroborating earlier results obtained from human pancreas sections. Uptake of 111In-anti-H2AX-TAT, but not 111In-IgG-TAT or 18F-FDG, within the pancreas was positively correlated with the age of KPC mice, which was correlated with the number of high-grade PanINs. 111In-anti-H2AX-TAT localises preferentially in high-grade PanIN lesions, but not in established PDAC. Younger, non-tumour-bearing KPC mice that show uptake of 111In-anti-H2AX-TAT in the pancreas survive significantly shorter than mice with physiological 111In-anti-H2AX-TAT uptake. Conclusion: 111In-anti-H2AX-TAT imaging allows non-invasive detection of DNA damage repair signalling upregulation in pre-invasive PanIN lesions and is a promising new tool to aid in the early detection and staging of pancreatic cancer.




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Targeted optical imaging of the glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor using exendin-4-IRDye800CW

Rationale: The treatment of choice for insulinomas and focal lesions in congenital hyperinsulinism (CHI) is surgery. However, intra-operative detection can be challenging. This could be overcome with intra-operative fluorescence imaging, which provides real-time lesion detection with a high spatial resolution. Here, a novel method for targeted near-infrared (NIR) fluorescence imaging of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor (GLP-1R) positive lesions, using the GLP-1 agonist exendin-4, labeled with IRDye800CW, was examined in vitro and in vivo. Methods: A competitive binding assay was performed using Chinese hamster lung (CHL) cells transfected with the GLP-1R. Tracer biodistribution was determined in BALB/c nude mice bearing subcutaneous CHL-GLP-1R xenografts. In vivo NIR fluorescence imaging of CHL-GLP-1R xenografts was performed. Localization of the tracer in the pancreatic islets of BALB/c nude mice was examined using fluorescence microscopy. Laparoscopic imaging was performed to detect the fluorescent signal of the tracer in the pancreas of mini pigs. Results: Exendin-4-IRDye800CW binds the GLP-1R with an IC50 value of 3.96 nM. The tracer accumulates in CHL-GLP-1R xenografts. Subcutaneous CHL-GLP-1R xenografts were visualized using in vivo NIR fluorescence imaging. The tracer accumulates specifically in the pancreatic islets of mice and a clear fluorescent signal was detected in the pancreas of mini pigs. Conclusion: These date provide the first in vivo evidence of the feasibility of targeted fluorescence imaging of GLP-1R positive lesions. Intra-operative lesion delineation using exendin-4-IRDye800CW could benefit open as well as laparoscopic surgical procedures for removal of insulinomas and focal lesions in CHI.




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Impact of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT on Staging and Management of Prostate Cancer Patients in Various Clinical Settings: A Prospective Single Center Study

The impact of prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) PET/CT on management of prostate cancer (PCa) patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) is well-established. However, whether and how PSMA PET/CT affects the management of patients undergoing scans for other clinical indications remains unknown. The goal of this study was to determine the impact of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT on initial and subsequent management decisions in a cohort of PCa patients referred for various indications ("basket trial") excluding the two main classical indications: BCR and presurgical staging. Methods: This was a prospective study of 197 patients that aimed to determine the impact of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT on PCa stage and management. Indications for PSMA PET/CT were: initial staging of non-surgical candidates (30 patients) and re-staging after definitive treatment (n = 168). The re-staging cohort comprised: patients re-staged with known advanced metastatic disease (n = 103), after androgen deprivation therapy only (n = 16), after surgery with serum PSA levels <0.2 ng/ml (n = 13), after radiation therapy (RT) not meeting the Phoenix criteria (n = 22) and after other primary local treatments [i.e. high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU), focal laser ablation, cryoablation, hyperthermia or irreversible electroporation] (n = 13). Patients with BCR and candidates for curative surgery were excluded. Impact on management was assessed using pre- and post-PET questionnaires completed by referring physicians, electronic chart review and/or patient telephone encounters. Results: PSMA PET/CT changed disease stage in 135/197 (69%) patients (38% up-stage, 30% down-stage and no changes in stage in 32%). Management was affected in 104/182 (57%) patients. Specifically, PSMA PET/CT impacted management of patients who were re-staged after RT without meeting the Phoenix criteria for BCR, after other definitive local treatments and with advanced metastatic disease in 13/18 (72%), 8/12 (67%) and 59/96 (61%), respectively. Conclusion: PSMA PET/CT has a profound impact on stage and management of PCa patients outside of the two main classical indications (BCR and presurgical staging) across all examined clinical scenarios.




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64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT for Imaging Patients with Known or Suspected Somatostatin Receptor-Positive Neuroendocrine Tumors: Results of the First US Prospective, Reader-Blinded Clinical Trial

Studies demonstrate that the investigational 64Cu-DOTATATE radiopharmaceutical may provide diagnostic and logistical benefits over available imaging agents for patients with somatostatin receptor (SSTR)-positive neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). Accordingly, we aimed to prospectively determine the lowest dose of 64Cu-DOTATATE that facilitates diagnostic quality scans and evaluated the diagnostic performance and safety in a phase III study of patients with SSTR-expressing NETs. Methods: A dose-ranging study was conducted in 12 patients divided into 3 dose groups (111 MBq [3.0 mCi], 148 MBq [4.0 mCi], and 185 MBq [5.0 mCi] ± 10%) to determine the lowest dose of 64Cu-DOTATATE that produced diagnostic quality PET/CT images. Using the 64Cu-DOTATATE dose identified in the dose-ranging study, 3 independent nuclear medicine physicians who were blinded to all clinical information read PET/CT scans from 21 healthy volunteers and 42 NET-positive patients to determine those with "Disease" and "No Disease," as well as "Localized" versus "Metastatic" status. Blinded-reader evaluations were compared to a patient-specific standard of truth (SOT), which was established by an independent oncologist who used all previously available pathology, clinical, and conventional imaging data. Diagnostic performance calculated for 64Cu-DOTATATE included sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, and accuracy. Inter- and intra-reader reliability, as well as ability to differentiate between localized and metastatic disease, was also determined. Adverse events (AEs) were recorded from 64Cu-DOTATATE injection through 48 hours post-injection. Results: The dose-ranging study identified 148 MBq (4.0 mCi) as the optimal dose to obtain diagnostic quality PET/CT images. Following database lock, diagnostic performance from an initial majority read of the 3 independent readers showed a significant 90.9% sensitivity (P = 0.0042) and 96.6% specificity (P < 0.0001) for detecting NETs, which translated to a 100.0% sensitivity and 96.8% specificity after correcting for an initial SOT misread. Excellent inter- and intra-reader reliability, as well as ability to distinguish between localized and metastatic disease, was also noted. No AEs were related to 64Cu-DOTATATE, and no serious AEs were observed. Conclusion: 64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT is a safe imaging technique that provides high-quality and accurate images at a dose of 148 MBq (4.0 mCi) for the detection of somatostatin-expressing NETs.




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PSMA PET/CT and standard plus PET/CT-Ultrasound fusion targeted prostate biopsy can diagnose clinically significant prostate cancer in men with previous negative biopsies

The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility and diagnostic efficacy of 68Ga-PSMA positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) combined with PET-ultrasound image-guided biopsy in the diagnosis of prostate cancer. Methods: A total of 31 patients with previously negative prostate biopsy, but persistent elevated serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), were imaged with a 68Ga-labeled prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) PET/CT ligand prior to undergoing repeat prostate biopsy. Based on the proposed PROMISE criteria, PSMA PET/CT results were interpreted as negative (miPSMA-ES 0-1) or positive (miPSMA-ES 2-3). All patients underwent standard template systematic biopsy with up to four additional PSMA PET-ultrasound fusion image-guided biopsy cores. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy of PSMA PET/CT were determined. In addition, the correlation between miPSMA-ES and detection rate of prostate cancer was also analyzed. Univariate logistic regression models were established using PSMA PET/CT semi-quantitative analysis parameters to predict the outcome of repeat prostate biopsy. Results: The median age of patients was 65 years (range 53-81), and the median PSA level was 18.0 ng/ml (range 5.48-49.77 ng/ml). Prostate cancer was detected in 15/31 patients (48.4%) and 12/31 patients (38.7%) had clinically significant disease. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT in the diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer were 100.0%, 68.4%, 66.7%, 100.0% and 80.6%, respectively. The detection rate of prostate cancer increased with the increase of miPSMA-ES score. The detection rate of clinically significant prostate cancer in miPSMA-ES 0-1, 2 and 3 groups were 0%, 54.5% and 85.7% respectively. Semi-quantitative analysis of 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT images showed that predictive models based on maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), tumor-to-background normal prostate SUV (SUVT/BGp) and tumor-to-background normal liver SUV (SUVratio) could effectively predict clinically significant prostate cancer; area under the curves were 0.930, 0.877, and 0.956, respectively. Conclusion: This study preliminarily confirmed that 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT imaging combined with PET-ultrasound fusion image-guided prostate biopsy can effectively detect clinically significant prostate cancer. Prebiopsy 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT has predictive value for clinically significant cancer in the studied patient population.




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Clinical evaluation of a data-driven respiratory gating algorithm for whole-body positron emission tomography with continuous bed motion

Respiratory gating is the standard to overcome respiration effects degrading image quality in positron emission tomography (PET). Data-driven gating (DDG) using signals derived from PET raw data are promising alternatives to gating approaches requiring additional hardware. However, continuous bed motion (CBM) scans require dedicated DDG approaches for axially-extended PET, compared to DDG for conventional step-and-shoot scans. In this study, a CBM-capable DDG algorithm was investigated in a clinical cohort, comparing it to hardware-based gating using gated and fully motion-corrected reconstructions. Methods: 56 patients with suspected malignancies in thorax or abdomen underwent whole-body 18F-FDG CBM-PET/CT imaging using DDG and hardware-based respiratory gating (pressure-sensitive belt gating, BG). Correlation analyses were performed on both gating signals. Besides static reconstructions, BG and DDG were used for optimally-gated PET (BG-OG, DDG-OG) and fully motion-corrected PET (elastic motion correction; BG-EMOCO, DDG-EMOCO). Metabolic volumes, SUVmax and SUVmean of lesions were compared amongst the reconstructions. Additionally, the quality of lesion delineation in different PET reconstructions was independently evaluated by three experts. Results: Global correlation coefficients between BG and DDG signals amounted to 0.48±0.11, peaking at 0.89±0.07 when scanning the kidney and liver region. In total, 196 lesions were analyzed. SUV measurements were significantly higher in BG-OG, DDG-OG, BG-EMOCO and DDG-EMOCO compared to static images (P<0.001; median SUVmax: static, 14.3±13.4; BG-EMOCO, 19.8±15.7; DDG-EMOCO, 20.5±15.6; BG-OG, 19.6±17.1; DDG-OG, 18.9±16.6). No significant differences between BG-OG and DDG-OG, and BG-EMOCO and DDG-EMOCO, respectively, were found. Visual lesion delineation was significantly better in BG-EMOCO and DDG-EMOCO than in static reconstructions (P<0.001); no significant difference was found comparing BG and DDG (EMOCO, OG, respectively). Conclusion: DDG-based motion-compensation of CBM-PET acquisitions outperforms static reconstructions, delivering qualities comparable to hardware-based approaches. The new algorithm may be a valuable alternative for CBM-PET systems.




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Diagnosis of Hyper-progressive Disease in Patients Treated with Checkpoint Inhibitors using 18F-FDG PET/CT




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Defining hyper-progressive disease using tumor growth rate: what are limitations and shortcuts?




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The optimal imaging window for dysplastic colorectal polyp detection using c-Met targeted fluorescence molecular endoscopy

Rationale: Fluorescence molecular endoscopy (FME) is an emerging technique that has the potential to improve the 22% colorectal polyp detection miss-rate. We determined the optimal dose-to-imaging interval and safety of FME using EMI-137, a c-Met targeted fluorescent peptide, in a population at high-risk for colorectal cancer. Methods: We performed in vivo FME and quantification of fluorescence by multi-diameter single-fiber reflectance, single-fiber fluorescence spectroscopy in 15 patients with a dysplastic colorectal adenoma. EMI-137 was intravenously administered (0.13mg/kg) at a one-, two- or three-hour dose-to-imaging interval (N = 3 patients per cohort). Two cohorts were expanded to six patients based on target-to-background ratios (TBR). Fluorescence was correlated to histopathology and c-Met expression. EMI-137 binding specificity was assessed by fluorescence microscopy and in vitro experiments. Results: FME using EMI-137 appeared to be safe and well tolerated. All dose-to-imaging intervals showed significantly increased fluorescence in the colorectal lesions compared to surrounding tissue, with a TBR of 1.53, 1.66 and 1.74 respectively (mean intrinsic fluorescence (Q·μfa,x) = 0.035 vs. 0.023mm-1, P<0.0003; 0.034 vs. 0.021mm-1, P<0.0001; 0.033 vs. 0.019mm-1, P<0.0001). Fluorescence correlated to histopathology on a macroscopic and microscopic level, with significant c-Met overexpression in dysplastic mucosa. In vitro, a dose-dependent specific binding was confirmed. Conclusion: FME using EMI-137 appeared to be safe and feasible within a one-to-three hour dose-to-imaging interval. No clinically significant differences were observed between the cohorts, although a one-hour dose-to-imaging interval was preferred from a clinical perspective. Future studies will investigate EMI-137 for improved colorectal polyp detection during screening colonoscopies.




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A Prospective, Comparative Study of Planar and Single-photon Emission Computed Tomography Ventilation/Perfusion Imaging for Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension

Objectives: The study compared the diagnostic performance of Planar Ventilation/perfusion (V/Q) and V/Q Single-photon computed tomography (SPECT), and determined whether combining perfusion scanning with low-dose computed tomography (Q-LDCT) may be equally effective in a prospective study of patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) patients. Background: V/Q scanning is recommended for excluding CTEPH during the diagnosis of pulmonary hypertension (PH). However, Planar V/Q and V/Q SPECT techniques have yet to be compared in patients with CTEPH. Methods: Patients with suspected PH were eligible for the study. PH attributable to left heart disease or lung disease was excluded, and patients whose PH was confirmed by right heart catheterization and who completed Planar V/Q, V/Q-SPECT, Q-LDCT, and pulmonary angiography were included. V/Q images were interpreted and patients were diagnosed as instructed by the 2009 EANM guidelines, and pulmonary angiography analyses were used as a reference standard. Results: A total of 208 patients completed the study, including 69 with CTEPH confirmed by pulmonary angiography. Planar V/Q, V/Q-SPECT, and Q-LDCT were all highly effective for diagnosing CTEPH, with no significant differences in sensitivity or specificity observed among the three techniques (Planar V/Q [sensitivity/specificity]: 94.20%/92.81%; V/Q-SPECT: 97.10%/91.37%, Q-LCDT: 95.65%/90.65%). However, V/Q-SPECT was significantly more sensitive (V/Q-SPECT: 79.21%; Planar V/Q: 75.84%, P = 0.012; Q-LDCT: 74.91%, p<0.001), and Planar V/Q was significantly more specific (Planar V/Q: 54.14%; V/Q-SPECT 46.05%, p<0.001; Q-LDCT: 46.05%, P = 0.001) than the other two techniques for identifying perfusion defects in individual lung segments. Conclusion: Both Planar V/Q and V/Q-SPECT were highly effective for diagnosing CTEPH, and Q-LDCT may be a reliable alternative method for patients who are unsuitable for ventilation imaging.




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Moving towards multicenter therapeutic trials in ALS: feasibility of data pooling using different TSPO positron emission tomography (PET) radioligands.

Rationale: Neuroinflammation has been implicated in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) and can be visualized using translocator protein (TSPO) radioligands. To become a reliable pharmacodynamic biomarker for ALS multicenter trials, some challenges have to be overcome. We aimed to investigate whether multicenter data pooling of different TSPO tracers (11C-PBR28 and 18F-DPA714) is feasible, after validation of an established 11C-PBR28 PET pseudoreference analysis technique for 18F-DPA714. Methods: 7 ALS-Belgium (58.9±6.7 years,5M) and 8 HV-Belgium (52.1±15.2 years,3M); and 7 ALS-US (53.4±9.8 years,5M) and 7 HV-US (54.6±9.6 years,4M) from a previously published study (1) underwent dynamic 18F-DPA714 (Leuven, Belgium) or 11C-PBR28 (Boston, US) PET-MR scans. For 18F-DPA714, volume of distribution (VT) maps were compared to standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR)40-60 calculated using the pseudoreference regions (1)cerebellum, (2)occipital cortex, and (3)whole brain without ventricles (WB-ventricles). Also for 11C-PBR28, SUVR60-90 using WB-ventricles were calculated. Results: In line with previous studies, increased 18F-DPA714 uptake (17.0±5.6%) in primary motor cortices was observed in ALS, as measured by both VT and SUVR40-60 approaches. Highest sensitivity was found for SUVRWB-ventricles (average cluster 21.6±0.1%). 18F-DPA714 VT ratio and SUVR40-60 results were highly correlated (r>0.8, p<0.001). A similar pattern of increased uptake (average cluster 20.5±0.5%) in primary motor cortices was observed in ALS with 11C-PBR28 using the SUVRWB-ventricles. Analysis of the 18F-DPA714 and 11C-PBR28 data together, resulted in a more extensive pattern of significant increased glial activation in the bilateral primary motor cortices. Conclusion: The same pseudoreference region analysis technique for 11C-PBR28 PET imaging can be extended towards 18F-DPA714 PET. Therefore, in ALS, standardized analysis across these two tracers enables pooling of TSPO PET data across multiple centers and increase power of TSPO as biomarker for future therapeutic trials.




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Factors predicting metastatic disease in 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET positive osseous lesions in prostate cancer

Bone is the most common site of distant metastatic spread in prostate adenocarcinoma. Prostate-specific membrane antigen uptake has been described in both benign and malignant bone lesions, which can lead to false-positive findings on 68Ga-prostate-specific membrane antigen-11 positron emission tomography (68Ga-PSMA-11 PET). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET for osseous prostate cancer metastases and improve bone uptake interpretation using semi-quantitative metrics. METHODS: 56 prostate cancer patients (18 pre-prostatectomy, 38 biochemical recurrence) who underwent 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI or PET/CT examinations with osseous PSMA-ligand uptake were included in the study. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively by board-certified nuclear radiologists to determine true or false positivity based on a composite endpoint. For each avid osseous lesion, biological volume, size, PSMA-RADS rating, maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), and ratio of lesion SUVmax to liver, blood pool, and background bone SUVmax were measured. Differences between benign and malignant lesions were evaluated for statistical significance, and cut-off values for these parameters were determined to maximize diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Among 56 participants, 13 patients (22.8%) had false-positive osseous 68Ga-PSMA-11 findings and 43 patients (76.8%) had true-positive osseous 68Ga-PSMA-11 findings. Twenty-two patients (39%) had 1 osseous lesion, 18 (32%) had 2-4 lesions, and 16 (29%) had 5 or more lesions. Cut-off values resulting in statistically significant (p<0.005) differences between benign and malignant lesions were: PSMA-RADS ≥4, SUVmax ≥4.1, SUVmax ratio of lesion to blood pool ≥2.11, to liver ≥0.55, and to bone ≥4.4. These measurements corresponded to lesion-based 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET lesion detection rate for malignancy of 80%, 93%, 89%, 21%, 89%, and a specificity of 73%, 73%, 73%, 93%, 60%, respectively. CONCLUSION: PSMA-RADS rating, SUVmax, and SUVmax ratio of lesion to blood pool can help differentiate benign from malignant lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET. SUVmax ratio to blood pool above 2.2 is a reasonable parameter to support image interpretation and presented superior lesion detection rate and specificity when compared to visual interpretation by PSMA RADS. These parameters hold clinical value by improving diagnostic accuracy for metastatic prostate cancer on 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI and PET/CT.




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CXCR4-targeted positron emission tomography imaging of central nervous system B-cell lymphoma

C-X-C chemokine receptor 4 is a transmembrane chemokine receptor involved in growth, survival, and dissemination of cancer, including aggressive B-cell lymphoma. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the standard imaging technology for central nervous system involvement of B-cell lymphoma and provides high sensitivity but moderate specificity. Therefore, novel molecular and functional imaging strategies are urgently required. Methods: In this proof-of-concept study, 11 patients with lymphoma of the CNS (CNSL, n = 8 primary and n = 3 secondary involvement) were imaged with the CXCR4-directed positron emission tomography (PET) tracer 68Ga-Pentixafor. To evaluate the predictive value of this imaging modality, treatment response, as determined by MRI, was correlated with quantification of CXCR4 expression by 68Ga-Pentixafor PET in vivo before initiation of treatment in 7 of 11 patients. Results: 68Ga-Pentixafor-PET showed excellent contrast characteristics to the surrounding brain parenchyma in all patients with active disease. Furthermore, initial CXCR4 uptake determined by PET correlated with subsequent treatment response as assessed by MRI. Conclusion: 68Ga-Pentixafor-PET represents a novel diagnostic tool for central nervous system lymphoma with potential implications for theranostic approaches as well as response and risk assessment.




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Semi-automatically quantified tumor volume using Ga-68-PSMA-11-PET as biomarker for survival in patients with advanced prostate cancer

Prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) targeting Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is becoming the reference standard for prostate cancer (PC) staging, especially in advanced disease. Yet, the implications of PSMA-PET derived whole-body tumor volume for overall survival are poorly elucidated to date. This might be due to the fact that (semi-) automated quantification of whole-body tumor volume as PSMA-PET biomarker is an unmet clinical challenge. Therefore, a novel semi-automated software is proposed and evaluated by the present study, which enables the semi-automated quantification of PSMA-PET biomarkers such as whole-body tumor volume. Methods: The proposed quantification is implemented as a research prototype (MI Whole Body Analysis Suite, v1.0, Siemens Medical Solutions USA, Inc., Knoxville, TN). PSMA accumulating foci were automatically segmented by a percental threshold (50% of local SUVmax). Neural networks were trained to segment organs in PET-CT acquisitions (training CTs: 8,632, validation CTs: 53). Thereby, PSMA foci within organs of physiologic PSMA uptake were semi-automatically excluded from the analysis. Pretherapeutic PSMA-PET-CTs of 40 consecutive patients treated with 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy were evaluated in this analysis. The volumetric whole-body tumor volume (PSMATV50), SUVmax, SUVmean and other whole-body imaging biomarkers were calculated for each patient. Semi-automatically derived results were compared with manual readings in a sub-cohort (by one nuclear medicine physician using syngo.MM Oncology software, Siemens Healthineers, Knoxville, TN). Additionally, an inter-observer evaluation of the semi-automated approach was performed in a sub-cohort (by two nuclear medicine physicians). Results: Manually and semi automatically derived PSMA metrics were highly correlated (PSMATV50: R2=1.000; p<0.001; SUVmax: R2=0.988; p<0.001). The inter-observer agreement of the semi-automated workflow was also high (PSMATV50: R2=1.000; p<0.001; ICC=1.000; SUVmax: R2=0.988; p<0.001; ICC=0.997). PSMATV50 [ml] was a significant predictor of overall survival (HR: 1.004; 95%CI: 1.001-1.006, P = 0.002) and remained so in a multivariate regression including other biomarkers (HR: 1.004; 95%CI: 1.001-1.006 P = 0.004). Conclusion: PSMATV50 is a promising PSMA-PET biomarker that is reproducible and easily quantified by the proposed semi-automated software. Moreover, PSMATV50 is a significant predictor of overall survival in patients with advanced prostate cancer that receive 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy.




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Integrity of neurocognitive networks in dementing disorders as measured with simultaneous PET/fMRI

Background: Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have reported altered integrity of large-scale neurocognitive networks (NCNs) in dementing disorders. However, findings on specificity of these alterations in patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) are still very limited. Recently, NCNs have been successfully captured using positron emission tomography (PET) with F18-fluordesoxyglucose (FDG). Methods: Network integrity was measured in 72 individuals (38 male) with mild AD, bvFTD, and healthy controls using a simultaneous resting state fMRI and FDG-PET. Indices of network integrity were calculated for each subject, network, and imaging modality. Results: In either modality, independent component analysis revealed four major NCNs: anterior default mode network (DMN), posterior DMN, salience network, and right central executive network (CEN). In fMRI data, integrity of posterior DMN was found to be significantly reduced in both patient groups relative to controls. In the AD group anterior DMN and CEN appeared to be additionally affected. In PET data, only integrity of posterior DMN in patients with AD was reduced, while three remaining networks appeared to be affected only in patients with bvFTD. In a logistic regression analysis, integrity of anterior DMN as measured with PET alone accurately differentiated between the patient groups. A correlation between indices of two imaging modalities was overall low. Conclusion: FMRI and FDG-PET capture partly different aspects of network integrity. A higher disease specificity of NCNs as derived from PET data supports metabolic connectivity imaging as a promising diagnostic tool.




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NEMESIS: Non-inferiority, Individual Patient Meta-analysis of Selective Internal Radiation Therapy with Yttrium-90 Resin Microspheres versus Sorafenib in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

In randomized clinical trials (RCTs), no survival benefit has been observed for selective internal radiotherapy (SIRT) over sorafenib in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC). This study aimed to assess by means of a meta-analysis whether overall survival (OS) with SIRT, as monotherapy or followed by sorafenib, is non-inferior to sorafenib, and compare safety profiles for patients with aHCC. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library up to February 2019 to identify RCTs comparing SIRT as monotherapy, or followed by sorafenib, to sorafenib monotherapy among patients with aHCC. The main outcomes were OS and frequency of treatment-related severe adverse events (AEs grade ≥3). The per-protocol population was the primary analysis population. A non-inferiority margin of 1.08 in terms of hazard ratio (HR) was pre-specified for the upper boundary of 95% confidence interval (CI) for OS. Pre-specified subgroup analyses were performed. Results: Three RCTs, involving 1,243 patients, comparing sorafenib with SIRT (SIRveNIB and SARAH) or SIRT followed by sorafenib (SORAMIC), were included. After randomization, 411/635 (64.7%) patients allocated to SIRT and 522/608 (85.8%) allocated to sorafenib completed the studies without major protocol deviations. Median OS with SIRT, whether or not followed by sorafenib, was non-inferior to sorafenib (10.2 and 9.2 months, [HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.78–1.05]). Treatment-related severe adverse events were reported in 149/515 patients (28.9%) who received SIRT and 249/575 (43.3%) who received sorafenib only (p<0.01). Conclusion: SIRT as initial therapy for aHCC is non-inferior to sorafenib in terms of OS, and offers a better safety profile.




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Interim PET evaluation in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma employing published recommendations: Comparison of the Deauville 5-point scale and the {Delta}SUVmax method

The value of interim 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (iPET) guided treatment decisions in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has been the subject of much debate. This investigation focuses on a comparison of the Deauville score and the deltaSUVmax (SUVmax) approach – two methods to assess early metabolic response to standard chemotherapy in DLBCL. Methods: Of 609 DLBCL patients participating in the Positron Emission Tomography-guided Therapy of Aggressive non-Hodgkin Lymphomas (PETAL) trial, iPET scans of 596 patients originally evaluated using the SUVmax method were available for post-hoc assessment of the Deauville score. A commonly used definition of an unfavorable iPET result according to the Deauville score is an uptake greater than that of the liver, whereas an unfavorable iPET scan with regard to the SUVmax approach is characterized as a relative reduction of the maximum standardized uptake value between baseline and iPET staging of less than or equal to 66%. We investigated the two methods’ correlation and concordance by Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and the agreement in classification, respectively. We further used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression to assess differences in survival between patient subgroups defined by the pre-specified cut-offs. Time-dependent receiver operating curve analysis provided information on the methods’ respective discrimination performance. Results: Deauville score and SUVmax approach differed in their iPET-based prognosis. The SUVmax approach outperformed the Deauville score in terms of discrimination performance – most likely due to a high number of false-positive decisions by the Deauville score. Cut-off-independent discrimination performance remained low for both methods, but cut-off-related analyses showed promising results. Both favored the SUVmax approach, e.g. for the segregation by iPET response, where the event-free survival hazard ratio was 3.14 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.22 – 4.46) for SUVmax and 1.70 (95% CI: 1.29 – 2.24) for the Deauville score. Conclusion: When considering treatment intensification, the currently used Deauville score cut-off of an uptake above that of the liver seems to be inappropriate and associated with potential harm for DLBCL patients. The SUVmax criterion of a relative reduction of the maximum standardized uptake value of less than or equal to 66% should be considered as an alternative.




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Discussions with Leaders: A Conversation Between Johnese Spisso and Johannes Czernin




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Inclusive Growth and Job Creation in Africa: The Outlook for 2019 and Beyond

Invitation Only Research Event

30 September 2019 - 1:30pm to 2:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director, African Department, International Monetary Fund
Chair: Elizabeth Donnelly, Deputy Head and Research Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

The IMF projects real GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in 2019 for sub-Saharan Africa but there is a mixed picture across the continent with growth in Mauritania, Senegal, Ethiopia and Rwanda outstripping projected growth rates for South Africa and Nigeria, for example, while a handful of economies seek to emerge from crisis. Yet, as is increasingly well documented, even strong growth has not delivered lasting socio-economic transformation in many contexts. And that most pressing of needs – job creation including to accommodate, in the next 15 years, an increase in the working age population greater than that in the rest of the world combined – remains a pressing concern for governments and societies. With populations continuing to grow at faster rates than economic growth, and a significant proportion of jobs outside agriculture being in the informal sector, investment in formal labour markets is crucial to creating inclusive economic growth.
 
At this event, the International Monetary Fund’s Africa Director, Abebe Aemro Selassie will discuss the outlook for sub-Saharan African economies in 2019 and progress towards achieving inclusive economic growth to accommodate future demographic change.
 
Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Yusuf Hassan

Parliamentary and Media Outreach Assistant, Africa Programme
+44 (0) 20 7314 3645




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Sudan Stakeholder Dialogues: Options for Economic Stabilization, Recovery and Inclusive Growth

3 October 2019

The Chatham House Africa Programme designed the Sudan Stakeholder Dialogues series to help identify the factors that have led to the current economic crisis, the immediate steps that need to be taken to avert collapse and stabilize the economy, and the longer-term structural reforms required to set Sudan on the path to recovery. The project is funded by Humanity United.

Ahmed Soliman

Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Africa Programme

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An employee removes bread from the oven at a bakery in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, on 24 May 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Three private roundtable meetings were convened in the first quarter of 2019, with the aim of generating informed and constructive new thinking on policy options and reforms that could help Sudan build a more economically prosperous, stable and inclusive nation. The roundtables were held under the Chatham House Rule.

The project sought to offer a neutral space for discussion to policymakers and influencers from a broad range of backgrounds: Sudanese government officials, opposition figures, economists, experts on Sudan’s political economy and governance, civil society figures, representatives of international financial institutions, and other international policymakers.

This paper draws together the key themes and findings from each of the three roundtables, ranging from broad structural economic issues to sector-specific priority interventions. It presents options and recommendations for Sudanese leaders, including the transitional government, in support of building a more economically prosperous, peaceful and inclusive nation.




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Forging Inclusive Economic Growth in Zimbabwe: Insights from the Zimbabwe Futures 2030 Roundtable Series

10 October 2019

This briefing note is the result of a collaborative research process with the Zimbabwean private sector, government representatives, industry organizations and experts, drawing on best practice and senior-level insights to identify policy options for long-term economic revival and expansion in Zimbabwe, and pathways for inclusive development.

Dr Knox Chitiyo

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme

Christopher Vandome

Research Fellow, Africa Programme

Caleb Dengu

Development Banking and Finance Specialist

David Mbae

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Resident Representative for Zimbabwe

Central to the research process was the Zimbabwe Futures 2030 roundtable series, complemented by additional interviews and research. Participants at the three roundtables, held in Harare and Bulawayo in the first half of 2019, discussed the necessary policies and business strategies to enable and support the effective implementation of the Mnangagwa administration’s Transitional Stabilisation Programme, Vision 2030, and other longer-term national development plans.

This process was conducted by the Chatham House Africa Programme, the Zimbabwe Business Club and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS); and in partnership with the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries for a roundtable in Bulawayo. The project was supported by KAS and the Dulverton Trust.




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Mobilizing Multinational Military Operations in Africa: Quick Fixes or Sustainable Solutions?

Research Event

25 October 2019 - 9:30am to 11:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Tony Chafer, University of Portsmouth
Professor Gordon Cumming, Cardiff University
Dr Roel van der Velde, Cardiff University
Ahmed Soliman, Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Chatham House
Dr Elisa Lopez Lucia, Université Libre de Bruxelles; University of Portsmouth
Chair: Janet Adama Mohammed, West Africa Programme Director, Conciliation Resources

Peacekeeping missions which have sought to address evolving forms of conflict and instability on the African continent – led by the United Nations, African Union and European Union – have frequently been overstretched.

Across regions including the Sahel, the Horn and West Africa, the issues of violent extremism and criminality – often set against a backdrop of collapsing or severely weakened central states – have led to the mobilisation of a diverse set of new collective responses.

These include notable African-led efforts such as AMISOM in Somalia or more recently the G5 Sahel, where France have played a pivotal role in initiating new and more ad hoc approaches to coalition-building.

As existing multinational missions in Africa continue to evolve on the ground and while new collective opportunities increasingly present themselves, it is critical for policymakers to understand how far such efforts reflect meaningful long-term solutions to the challenges of conflict and insecurity.

At this roundtable event, participants will reflect on how such missions become mobilised and legitimised, the extent to which they can be defined as ‘new’, and whether they represent a truly sustainable means to tackle the issue of conflict in Africa.

This roundtable is held in partnership with Cardiff University and the University of Portsmouth and is supported by the Leverhulme Trust.

Fergus Kell

Projects Assistant, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3671




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POSTPONED: Connecting Infrastructure Development and Inclusive Economic Growth in Côte d'Ivoire

Research Event

13 March 2020 - 4:00pm to 5:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Hon Bruno Nabagné Kone, Minister of Construction, Housing and Urban Planning, Republic of Côte d'Ivoire

Strong economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire – with annual GDP growth averaging eight per cent since 2012 – is interlinked with an increase in spending on national infrastructure. In 2018, the government announced a $7 billion injection for the sector over five years, for projects including a new 7.5km bridge spanning two districts of Abidjan and a highway extending to Burkina Faso. A public-private partnership to build a new $1.5 billion metropolitan railway system in the capital received formal approval in October 2019.

But the government of Côte d'Ivoire has struggled to make the country’s impressive growth inclusive: Côte d’Ivoire ranked 165th out of 189 on the 2019 United Nations Human Development Index, and the poverty rate is around 46%. Translating significant infrastructural investment into benefit for ordinary and vulnerable Ivorian citizens, including through how project development is managed with communities, will be a critical issue in the lead up to elections scheduled for October 2020 and beyond.

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

 

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Côte d'Ivoire’s 2020 Elections and Beyond: Ensuring Stability and Inclusion

Research Event

21 January 2020 - 11:30am to 12:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

HE Alassane Ouattara, President, Republic of Côte d'Ivoire
Chair: Bob Dewar CMG, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Please note, the second video on this page is from an interview with the president outside the event.

HE Alassane Ouattara, president of Côte d'Ivoire, discusses governance and domestic priorities ahead of and beyond elections, as well as efforts to sustain stability and support an inclusive electoral process.

Presidential elections in Côte d'Ivoire, the world’s top cocoa producer and the largest economy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), will be held ‪on 31st October 2020 against a backdrop of marked political dynamism in the country and wider region.

Possible constitutional amendments and a newly announced major reform of the currency regime are among significant issues drawing focus.

A credible and inclusive electoral process is critical for the improvement of socio-development outcomes and for the maintenance of a positive investment environment.

But instability remains a serious risk and the stakes are high for Côte d'Ivoire and the wider region.




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Angola's Business Promise: Evaluating the Progress of Privatization and Other Economic Reforms

Research Event

21 January 2020 - 2:30pm to 3:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Hon. Manuel José Nunes Júnior, Minister of State for Economic Coordination, Republic of Angola
Chair: Dr Alex Vines OBE, Managing Director, Ethics, Risk & Resilience; Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Minister Nunes Júnior will discuss the progress of the Angolan government’s economic stabilization plans and business reform agenda including the privatization of some state-owned enterprises. These reforms could expand Angola’s exports beyond oil and stimulate new industries and more inclusive economic growth.

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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The UK, US and Mauritius: Decolonization, Security, Chagos and the ICJ

Invitation Only Research Event

30 January 2020 - 8:15am to 9:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Philippe Sands QC, Professor of Law, UCL 
Richard Burt, Managing Partner, McLarty Associates
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and Americas Programme; Dean, Queen Elizabeth II Academy, Chatham House

The Chagos archipelago in the Indian Ocean has garnered media attention recently after the UK failed to abide by a UN deadline to return the islands to Mauritius. The US has landed in the middle of the dispute as a 1965 agreement with the UK has allowed the US to establish a military base on one of the islands, Diego Garcia, which has since become instrumental in US missions in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. 

In February 2019, an Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that the Chagos archipelago was unlawfully dismembered from Mauritius, in violation of the right to self-determination and that the United Kingdom is under an obligation to end its administration of the Chagos archipelago ‘as rapidly as possible’. The UN General Assembly subsequently voted overwhelmingly in favour of the UK leaving the islands by the end of November 2019 and the right of the former residents who were removed by the UK to return. The UK does not accept the ICJ and UN rulings and argues that the islands are needed to protect Britain from security threats while Mauritius has made clear the base can remain.

Professor Philippe Sands QC, professor of law at University College London and lead counsel for Mauritius on the ICJ case on Legal Consequences of the Separation of the Chagos archipelago from Mauritius in 1965, will be joining Ambassador Richard Burt, US chief negotiator in the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the former Soviet Union for a discussion on the fate of the archipelago including the future of the military base and the right of return of former residents.  

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

US and Americas Programme




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Financing for Sustainable Development in Africa

Research Event

27 February 2020 - 6:30pm to 7:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

HE Nana Akufo-Addo, President of the Republic of Ghana
Chair: Dr Alex Vines OBE, Managing Director, Ethics, Risk & Resilience; Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Please note, the second video on this page is from an interview carried out alongside the main event.

HE Nana Akufo-Addo, the president of Ghana, discusses his government’s approach to sustainable development, and how different stakeholders can be involved in achieving long-term goals in Ghana and beyond.

The government of Ghana has actively embedded sustainable development into its global and domestic policies. Ghana is signatory to international agreements including the 2030 UN Agenda for Sustainable Development, the African Union’s Agenda 2063, and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change; as well as including these goals into its domestic 2017-2024 economic and social development programme.

Private sector engagement has been central to Ghana’s approach to sustainable development. The government is also collaborating through the Private Enterprise Foundation on the implementation of the SDGs and is working with an Advisory Group of chief executives to establish a $100 million fund for the delivery of the SDGs and a further $200 million ‘Green Fund’ to help tackle climate change.

Event attributes

Livestream

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Nigeria’s Political Leaders Need to Win Trust to Tackle COVID-19

23 April 2020

Elizabeth Donnelly

Deputy Director, Africa Programme

Idayat Hassan

Director, Centre for Democracy and Development
COVID-19 will require Nigeria's government to rely on already stretched communities and informal institutions. But there is a yawning gap in trust and accountability between citizens and the state in Nigeria – the crisis will force the state to attempt to bridge this divide.

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News stand in Lagos, Nigeria on April 12, 2020. Photo by PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images.

Nigeria is better placed than many to respond to the arrival of the coronavirus disease. In 2014, it successfully contained a deadly Ebola virus outbreak and the country’s current score on the Epidemic Preparedness Index (38.9 per cent) is higher than the African and global averages.

But the outbreak is compounding Nigeria’s numerous pre-existing crises. It was already grappling with a Lassa fever outbreak that has claimed more than one hundred lives in 2020, the aftermath of recession, and conflict and insecurity within its borders.

Effective leadership to build confidence will be vital. However, President Muhammadu Buhari has made few appearances, delivering his first speech on Nigeria’s response more than one month after the country’s first recorded case. And the indefinite suspension of meetings of the Federal Executive Council has raised questions on the efficacy of the response.

Extended lockdown imposed

The recent loss of President Buhari’s steadfast chief of staff Abba Kyari as a result of contracting COVID-19 is a further significant setback for the presidency. But the administration has established a presidential task force to develop a national strategy and an extended lockdown has been imposed on the most affected states  Lagos, Ogun and the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The country has also closed national borders and is expanding testing capacity to 1,500 per day.

However, when Nigeria’s first case was recorded on February 27 it was state governments that initially took action  shutting schools, closing state borders and imposing lockdowns. Going forwards, the 36 state governments will have a key role to play although their governance capacity and commitment varies widely.

The federal government has released $2.7 million to support the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), and promised an additional $18 million  but this falls well short of the estimated $330 million needed to tackle the coronavirus disease in Nigeria. The government is looking to its private sector to help make up the difference. The country’s finances are under severe pressure with Nigerian crude oil  the main source of government revenue and foreign exchange reserves  selling for as low as $12 or $13 a barrel (with production costs of around $22 per barrel), and a debt servicing to revenue ratio of more than 50 per cent even before the oil price crash.

Facing its second recession in four years, with -3.4 per cent GDP growth forecast by the IMF, the country has little economic resilience. Nigeria will not be able to sustain restrictions on its 81.15 million-strong workforce, 83.2 per cent of which operate in the informal sector. One area at particular risk is food security, as the pandemic is disrupting farming, supply chains and trade. By building on past benefit programmes, the federal government is providing cash and distributing food to vulnerable households, but this important effort is being hampered by poor communication, inefficiencies and a lack of transparency  longstanding challenges in many aspects of public service delivery in Nigeria.

In the absence of a reliable social safety net, Nigerians trust and rely on their families, communities and the informal economy to see them through difficult times. It is these informal mechanisms that lend Nigeria its oft-referenced resilience, which has enabled society to function and continue while a largely disconnected political class has focused on self-enrichment.

It is through these traditional channels that the government will need to deliver information, support, testing and treatment. But without high levels of trust, the administration may find it difficult to do so. Many Nigerians initially considered the pandemic a hoax, some describing it as a ‘rich man’s disease’, while others see it as another conspiracy by politicians to loot the treasury.

Lockdown measures have also heightened tensions across the country. Some citizens are rebelling and in one instance burned down a police station in response to the closure of mosques in Katsina state. Marking a further breakdown in the relationship between the population and its leaders, the Nigerian National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) recently reported security services enforcing the lockdown have extrajudicially killed 18 people, while, so far, COVID-19 has killed 25 people in Nigeria.

Mitigating the spread and worst consequences of the virus will depend on the state rebuilding trust with its citizens through effective communication and action. It is particularly important that the community mechanisms of support are protected as they come under growing pressure as communities become increasingly affected by the virus.

The stark choice facing most Nigerians  between risking starvation and risking contagion  means a sustained lockdown is not a tenable option. People will choose to go to work. This will especially be the case as people grow weary of measures imposed upon them by a state that the vast majority of the population believe does not serve or care for them.

Having largely ignored the needs of Nigeria’s citizens for decades, the political class face an uphill battle in building trust with the population. Earning this trust is not only crucial for the struggle against COVID-19 but also for Nigeria’s longer-term progress and system of political governance.




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Coronavirus Risks Worsening a Food Crisis in the Sahel and West Africa

1 May 2020

Dr Leena Koni Hoffmann

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme

Paul Melly

Consulting Fellow, Africa Programme
In responding to the spread of the coronavirus, the governments of the Sahel and West Africa will need to draw on their collective experience of strategic coordination in emergency planning, and work together to prioritize the flow of food across borders.

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An informal market in the Anyama district of Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, is sanitized against the coronavirus. Photo by SIA KAMBOU/AFP via Getty Images.

The COVID-19 pandemic has struck the Sahel and West Africa at a time when the region is already under severe pressure from violent insecurity and the effects of climate change on its land, food and water resources.

By the end of April, there had been 9,513 confirmed coronavirus cases across the 17 countries of the region, and some 231 deaths, with the highest overall numbers recorded in Nigeria, Ghana, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Niger and Burkina Faso. Low testing rates mean than these numbers give only a partial picture.

The Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) forecast in early April that almost 17 million people in the Sahel and West Africa (7.1 million in Nigeria alone) will need food and nutritional assistance during the coming lean season in June–August, more than double the number in an average year. The combined impact of violent insecurity and COVID-19 could put more than 50 million other people across the region at risk of food and nutrition crisis.

Rippling across the region

The effects of the collapse in global commodity prices, currency depreciations, rising costs of consumer goods and disruptions to supply chains are rippling across the region. And for major oil-exporting countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, Chad and Cameroon, the wipe-out of foreign currency earnings will hammer government revenues just as the cost of food and other critical imports goes up. It is likely that the number of people who suffer the direct health impact of the coronavirus will be far outstripped by the number for whom there will be harsh social and economic costs.

In recent years, valuable protocols and capacities have been put in place by governments in West and Central Africa in response to Ebola and other infectious disease outbreaks.

But inadequate healthcare funding and infrastructure across this region compound the challenge of responding to the spread of the COVID-19 infection – which is testing the resources of even the world’s best-funded public health systems.

Over many years, however, the region has steadily built up structures to tackle humanitarian and development challenges, particularly as regards food security. It has an established system for assessing the risk of food crisis annually and coordinating emergency support to vulnerable communities. Each country monitors climate and weather patterns, transhumance, market systems and agricultural statistics, and terrorist disruption of agricultural productivity, from local community to national and regional level.

The system is coordinated and quality-controlled, using common technical data standards, by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), a regional intergovernmental body established in 1973 in response to a devastating drought. Collective risk assessments allow emergency support to be mobilized through the RPCA.

For almost three months already, countries in Sahelian West Africa have been working with the World Health Organization to prepare national COVID-19 response strategies and strengthen health controls at their borders. Almost all governments have also opted for domestic curfews, and variations of lockdown and market restrictions.

Senegal has been a leader in rapidly developing Africa’s diagnostic capacity, and plans are under way to speed up production of test kits. Niger was swift to develop a national response strategy, to which donors have pledged €194.5 million. While the IMF has agreed emergency financial assistance to help countries address the urgent balance-of-payments, health and social programme needs linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, signing off $3.4 billion for Nigeria, $442 million for Senegal and $130 million for Mauritania.

Steps are also now being taken towards the formulation of a more joined-up regional approach. Notably, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari has been chosen by an extraordinary session of the Economic Community of West African States to coordinate the regional response to COVID-19. As Africa’s biggest economy and home to its largest population, Nigeria is a critical hub for transnational flows of goods and people. Its controversial August 2019 land border closure, in a bid to address smuggling, has already painfully disrupted regional agri-food trade and value chains. The active engagement of the Buhari administration will thus be crucial to the success of a multifaceted regional response.

One of the first tough questions the region’s governments must collectively address is how long to maintain the border shutdowns that were imposed as an initial measure to curb the spread of the virus. Closed borders are detrimental to food security, and disruptive to supply chains and the livelihoods of micro, small and medium-sized entrepreneurs that rely on cross-border trade. The impact of prolonged closures will be all the more profound in a region where welfare systems are largely non-existent or, at best, highly precarious.

Nigeria, in particular, with more than 95 million people already living in extreme poverty, might do well to explore measures to avoid putting food further beyond the reach of people who are seeing their purchasing power evaporate.

In taking further actions to control the spread of the coronavirus, the region’s governments will need to show faith in the system that they have painstakingly developed to monitor and respond to the annual risk of food crisis across the Sahel. This system, and the critical data it offers, will be vital to informing interventions to strengthen the four components of food security – availability, access, stability and utilization – in the context of COVID-19, and for charting a post-pandemic path of recovery.

Above all, careful steps will need to be put in place to ensure that preventing the spread of the coronavirus does not come at the cost of even greater food insecurity for the people of the Sahel and West Africa. The region’s governments must prioritize the flow of food across borders and renew their commitment to strategic coordination and alignment.




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Deletion of fatty acid transport protein 2 (FATP2) in the mouse liver changes the metabolic landscape by increasing the expression of PPAR{alpha}-regulated genes [Lipids]

Fatty acid transport protein 2 (FATP2) is highly expressed in the liver, small intestine, and kidney, where it functions in both the transport of exogenous long-chain fatty acids and the activation of very-long-chain fatty acids. Here, using a murine model, we investigated the phenotypic impacts of deleting FATP2, followed by a transcriptomic analysis using unbiased RNA-Seq to identify concomitant changes in the liver transcriptome. WT and FATP2-null (Fatp2−/−) mice (5 weeks) were maintained on a standard chow diet for 6 weeks. The Fatp2−/− mice had reduced weight gain, lowered serum triglyceride, and increased serum cholesterol levels and attenuated dietary fatty acid absorption. Transcriptomic analysis of the liver revealed 258 differentially expressed genes in male Fatp2−/− mice and a total of 91 in female Fatp2−/− mice. These genes mapped to the following gene ontology categories: fatty acid degradation, peroxisome biogenesis, fatty acid synthesis, and retinol and arachidonic acid metabolism. Targeted RT-quantitative PCR verified the altered expression of selected genes. Of note, most of the genes with increased expression were known to be regulated by peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor α (PPARα), suggesting that FATP2 activity is linked to a PPARα-specific proximal ligand. Targeted metabolomic experiments in the Fatp2−/− liver revealed increases of total C16:0, C16:1, and C18:1 fatty acids; increases in lipoxin A4 and prostaglandin J2; and a decrease in 20-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid. We conclude that the expression of FATP2 in the liver broadly affects the metabolic landscape through PPARα, indicating that FATP2 provides an important role in liver lipid metabolism through its transport or activation activities.




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Mass Spectrometry Based Immunopeptidomics Leads to Robust Predictions of Phosphorylated HLA Class I Ligands [Technological Innovation and Resources]

The presentation of peptides on class I human leukocyte antigen (HLA-I) molecules plays a central role in immune recognition of infected or malignant cells. In cancer, non-self HLA-I ligands can arise from many different alterations, including non-synonymous mutations, gene fusion, cancer-specific alternative mRNA splicing or aberrant post-translational modifications. Identifying HLA-I ligands remains a challenging task that requires either heavy experimental work for in vivo identification or optimized bioinformatics tools for accurate predictions. To date, no HLA-I ligand predictor includes post-translational modifications. To fill this gap, we curated phosphorylated HLA-I ligands from several immunopeptidomics studies (including six newly measured samples) covering 72 HLA-I alleles and retrieved a total of 2,066 unique phosphorylated peptides. We then expanded our motif deconvolution tool to identify precise binding motifs of phosphorylated HLA-I ligands. Our results reveal a clear enrichment of phosphorylated peptides among HLA-C ligands and demonstrate a prevalent role of both HLA-I motifs and kinase motifs on the presentation of phosphorylated peptides. These data further enabled us to develop and validate the first predictor of interactions between HLA-I molecules and phosphorylated peptides.




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Deep Characterization of the Human Antibody Response to Natural Infection Using Longitudinal Immune Repertoire Sequencing [Research]

Human antibody response studies are largely restricted to periods of high immune activity (e.g. vaccination). To comprehensively understand the healthy B cell immune repertoire and how this changes over time and through natural infection, we conducted immune repertoire RNA sequencing on flow cytometry-sorted B cell subsets to profile a single individual's antibodies over 11 months through two periods of natural viral infection. We found that 1) a baseline of healthy variable (V) gene usage in antibodies exists and is stable over time, but antibodies in memory cells consistently have a different usage profile relative to earlier B cell stages; 2) a single complementarity-determining region 3 (CDR3) is potentially generated from more than one VJ gene combination; and 3) IgG and IgA antibody transcripts are found at low levels in early human B cell development, suggesting that class switching may occur earlier than previously realized. These findings provide insight into immune repertoire stability, response to natural infections, and human B cell development.




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The Challenge of Classifying Metastatic Cell Properties by Molecular Profiling Exemplified with Cutaneous Melanoma Cells and Their Cerebral Metastasis from Patient Derived Mouse Xenografts [Research]

The prediction of metastatic properties from molecular analyses still poses a major challenge. Here we aimed at the classification of metastasis-related cell properties by proteome profiling making use of cutaneous and brain-metastasizing variants from single melanomas sharing the same genetic ancestry. Previous experiments demonstrated that cultured cells derived from these xenografted variants maintain a stable phenotype associated with a differential metastatic behavior: The brain metastasizing variants produce more spontaneous micro-metastases than the corresponding cutaneous variants. Four corresponding pairs of cutaneous and metastatic cells were obtained from four individual patients, resulting in eight cell-lines presently investigated. Label free proteome profiling revealed significant differences between corresponding pairs of cutaneous and cerebellar metastases from the same patient. Indeed, each brain metastasizing variant expressed several apparently metastasis-associated proteomic alterations as compared with the corresponding cutaneous variant. Among the differentially expressed proteins we identified cell adhesion molecules, immune regulators, epithelial to mesenchymal transition markers, stem cell markers, redox regulators and cytokines. Similar results were observed regarding eicosanoids, considered relevant for metastasis, such as PGE2 and 12-HETE. Multiparametric morphological analysis of cells also revealed no characteristic alterations associated with the cutaneous and brain metastasis variants. However, no correct classification regarding metastatic potential was yet possible with the present data. We thus concluded that molecular profiling is able to classify cells according to known functional categories but is not yet able to predict relevant cell properties emerging from networks consisting of many interconnected molecules. The presently observed broad diversity of molecular patterns, irrespective of restricting to one tumor type and two main classes of metastasis, highlights the important need to develop meta-analysis strategies to predict cell properties from molecular profiling data. Such base knowledge will greatly support future individualized precision medicine approaches.