Most sectors in the Indian share markets have been drowning in a sea of red due to the crash led by coronavirus outbreak. The biggest blow, however, has been felt by the banking sector.

The sector was already reeling under pressure due multiple factors for quite some time. And things started getting worse since the start of 2020.

Here's a timeline showing some major events that happened in the Indian banking sector and led to the slowdown we are witnessing in the past few months...

1. Mounting Pile of Bad Loans: Indian banks have for years worked to beat down mounting piles of bad loans of the sort that led to the Yes Bank fallout. The ratio of gross non-performing assets (NPAs) at Indian banks rose to 11% in 2018 from about 2% in 2008, before starting to ease off.
2. IL&FS Crisis Kicks Off the Downward Spiral: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were heavily positioned in the Indian banking and financial space, and stocks in the sector witnessed maximum inflows during good times. However, they started noticing cracks with consistent negative performance in the banking and financial sector and started moving out of them. The downward spiral for these sectors began since IL&FS crisis camec out into the open.
3. Credit Quality Deteriorates: After being the most preferred sector for over half a decade, things started changing for stocks in the banking sector since 2020. This came as the sector witnessed a double blow in the form of YES Bank fallout and prolonged economic slowdown. And all this only led to credit quality deterioration for banks.
4. YES Bank Crash: The Yes Bank crisis and the sight of Rana Kapoor being taken to court in early March came in as one of the worst months for India's banking sector.
5. Bailout for Yes Bank: To save Yes Bank, a range of Indian lenders led by the State Bank of India (SBI), infused funds in return for an equity stake. The episode came as a jolt to investors, who worried it could exacerbate vulnerabilities in the financial system.
6. Panic Selling Amid SC Order: Then came another blow. Before the dust settled on Yes Bank, the Supreme Court ruled that telecom operators must pay dues worth billions owed to the government. This caused panic-selling in bank stocks due to their heavy exposure to the telecoms sector.
7. Coronavirus Threat: The challenges now facing India's banking sector have reached another order of magnitude due to the coronavirus threat to the economy. Banking stocks have been among the hardest hit.
8. Sharp Fall for BSE Bankex: The BSE Bankex has fallen about 46% so far this year, outpacing the 32% fall in the BSE Sensex. Shares of Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank have lost the most during this period.
9. Relief Measures: Owing to all these shocks, banks have sought various relief measures. On 27 March 2020, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) came out all guns blazing to arrest a potential slowdown caused by coronavirus (Covid-19). It did not just lower the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 1% to 3% but also cut the repo rate by 0.75%. Also, there is a three-month moratorium on payment of loan installments.
10. PSB Merger: Then came the major announcement effective from 1 April 2020. First announced in August 2019, the government's ambitious plan to merge 10 state-owned banks into four came into effect from 1 April 2020. The move, aimed at strengthening the banking system and creating more large institutions with size and scale, has seen...
    • Oriental Bank of Commerce and United Bank of India merged into Punjab National Bank,
    • Andhra Bank and Corporation Bank merged into Union Bank of India,
    • Allahabad Bank merged with Indian Bank, and
    • Syndicate Bank amalgamated into Canara Bank

So, that were some top pointers on what the Indian banking sector has been going through amid the coronavirus led stock market crash.

I reached out to Tanushree Banerjee, who is closely tracking the banking sector in the current scenario. Here's her view on the sector...

• The Covid-19 lockdown has hit cash flows of both individual borrowers and corporates. This, in turn, will impact their loan repayment capability.
  
  The RBI's repo rate cut came as a temporary lifeline for Indian companies with debt on books. It will offer both companies and retail borrowers some breather. If banks use this phase judiciously, it may save the NPA ratios from worsening significantly.
  
  However, only the banks that have adequate capital and provisioning cushion may be able to tide over the economic crisis. Eventually, another round of consolidation in private sector banks, like the one after 2002, cannot be ruled out.

Tanushree's latest StockSelect recommendation is one such midcap bank.

You can read the entire report here (requires subscription).

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Asian stock markets are higher today as Chinese and Hong Kong shares show gains. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.6% while the Hang Seng is up 0.9%. The Nikkei 225 is trading up by 1.8%. Wall Street's indices climbed on Thursday, with the Nasdaq erasing losses for 2020, following a clutch of upbeat earnings reports led by PayPal as investors looked past more weak jobs data caused by the coronavirus-induced economic downturn.

Trends on SGX Nifty indicated a positive opening for the index in India with a 91 points gain.

India share markets opened higher. The BSE Sensex is trading up by 542 points while the NSE Nifty is trading up by 158 points. The BSE Mid Cap index and BSE Small Cap index opened up by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively.

All sectoral indices are trading in green with metal stocks and banking stocks witnessing maximum buying interest.

Note that the�coronavirus impact�has shaken markets worldwide. For the�BSE Sensex, FY20 was the second worst year post FY08, the year of the global financial crisis.

Good Time to Start Investing Now?

Naturally, there is an atmosphere of fear all round.

Is it time to sell stocks now? Will the correction get worse?

History has shown that after years like the one we had just now, the next 3 years are good for the markets. In fact, these corrections are the rare times when you find businesses with solid fundamentals at reasonable valuations.

If you can�find good businesses�that can survive the current crisis, you will do well in the long run.

Moving on, the rupee is currently trading at 75.57 against the�US$.

Gold prices are currently trading up 1.7% at Rs 46,161.

Gold prices in India edged lower in yesterday's trade though it remained in a narrow range.

On MCX, June gold futures fell about Rs 30 to Rs 45,340 per 10 gram, extending losses to the third day.

Gold prices had fallen about Rs 426 per 10 gram in the previous session. Silver futures also gave up early gains and were down 0.1% to 41,803 per kg.

In global markets, gold prices edge higher today after a sharp fall in the previous session.

Spot gold climbed 0.3% to US$1,690.19 per ounce, after a 1% fall in the previous session. Despite bleak economic data, the dollar's strength is weighing on gold.

The US dollar today touched a more than one-week high against a basket of major currencies. Besides firmer dollar, some bullion refineries restarted have production, easing supply-side concerns.

Moving on to mutual funds sector. Investors pumped Rs 837.8 billion in equity-oriented mutual fund (MF) schemes in FY20, registering a decline of 25% from the Rs 1.11-trillion inflows in the preceding year.

However, this was the sixth successive year of net inflows in equity mutual funds, according to data by the Association of Mutual Funds in India.

The flows into equity funds in the last fiscal were lower than the flows in 2018-19 primarily because of the equity markets displaying volatility, which made some investors take a break from making fresh equity investments.

Net inflows in these funds were Rs 1.7 trillion in FY18, Rs 703.7 billion in FY17, Rs 740.2 billion in FY16, and Rs 710.3 billion in FY15. However, they had witnessed a net outflow of Rs 92.7 billion in FY14.

To know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent�share market updates here.

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