The U.S. is now an oligarchy where the wealthy control the economy and the politics (through fake news).

The physical effect known as stepwise precession is a surprising fact that takes place in the movement of an elastic pendulum. When this pendulum is initially set near the downward equilibrium vertical configuration, with the length of the spring stretched by the gravity force, there is a chance to move in such a way that the springing vibrational mode of movement and the rotational "swing" mode interchange periodically their respective energies, with a periodic change of the swing plane and stepwise precession. We simulate here numerically the same dynamical behaviour for the natural extension of a double elastic-spherical pendulum.

China’s economic policy pendulum has swung towards stimulus – but keep expectations low Expert comment jon.wallace 14 October 2024

Beijing historically swings between stimulus and frugality. But Xi Jinping’s ambition for self-reliance will constrain any new efforts to boost the economy.

Policymakers in Beijing have spent the past three weeks trying to convince the world that they are determined to deliver meaningful support to China’s sagging economy. 

Since late September statements have come from the central bank, which promised to cut interest rates, release liquidity, and provide funding to securities firms; from the politburo, which said it wanted to stabilize the real estate market, boost the capital market and shift towards looser fiscal and monetary policy; from the government’s main planning body, which promised a package of policies to support domestic demand; and from the finance minister himself, who at the weekend committed to issue more debt to recapitalize banks, support local governments and aid unhappy consumers.

Though details have been scant, the Chinese stock market has responded enthusiastically to this flurry of rhetoric. But the bigger question for the global economy is whether a boost in Chinese demand can return the country to its former status as a reliable destination for global exports and capital.

With that measure of success in mind, it is worth keeping expectations low. For the past 15 years, Chinese authorities have been wrestling with two conflicting objectives: to grow the economy, and to minimize the risk of financial instability. Those goals sit uneasily with each other because the effort to boost growth has relied on borrowing; and yet a rise in debt can increase the risk of a debt crisis.  

Chinese policymaking has responded to this dilemma by taking on a pendulum-like quality. Sometimes the authorities boost the economy by funding more investment spending. At other times that stimulus gets reined back as policymakers worry about the economy’s indebtedness.

In the aftermath of the great financial crisis of 2008, for example, Beijing’s over-riding priority was to protect the Chinese economy from the risk of recession by implementing a huge credit-financed stimulus to spur investment in infrastructure and real estate. 

By 2012, though, concerns about over-indebtedness began to dominate, and a withdrawal of stimulus saw the Chinese economy sag. In late 2015,a new round of stimulus measures emerged, only to be withdrawn again around 2018.

With that pendulum in mind, the optimistic take on what policymakers have said in recent weeks is that we are now back in stimulus mode. That’s true in part, but three factors suggest that this time is a little different.

Different times

First, China’s rising debt burden increases authorities’ worries about financial stability. Data from the BIS show that China’s private sector debt almost doubled in the past 15 years to 200 per cent of GDP at the end of 2023. The comparable debt stock for the US and the Eurozone was much lower, at 150 per cent each.

Second, ideology is playing a growing role in shaping Chinese economic policy. The most visible effect has been to prioritize Chinese state-owned enterprises, at the expense of the private sector. This became especially visible in 2021 with a campaign against the ‘unrestrained expansion of capital’ – Beijing’s way of expressing its anxiety that China’s corporate sector was behaving in a manner inconsistent with Chinese Communist Party goals. 

Although that phrase is no longer current, entrepreneurs’ animal spirits remain in the doldrums. They are likely to stay there as long as President Xi Jinping’s preference is for ‘bigger, better, stronger’ state-owned enterprises, which use capital much less efficiently than private firms.

Third, today Chinese policy is shaped by Beijing’s perception of geopolitical risks that it faces. Those risks became starkly apparent in February 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when essentially every country that prints a reserve currency joined to freeze Russia’s access to its foreign exchange reserves. That enveloped the Russian economy in a network of sanctions that sharply constrained its access to a whole range of imports.

It is not difficult to consider a similar scenario confronting China. Beijing’s approach to economic policy is therefore heavily influenced by the need to insulate itself from that kind of risk (though Chinese policy had in any case been tilting in this direction for years).

‘Asymmetric decoupling’

This policy can be described as ‘asymmetric decoupling’: a simultaneous effort on the one hand to reduce China’s reliance on the rest of the world by substituting imports with domestic production; and, on the other hand, to increase the rest of the world’s reliance on China by establishing itself as a ‘zhizao qiangguo’, or manufacturing powerhouse.

This is the right context in which to understand a central economic goal of the authorities, which is to reduce the economy’s dependence on real estate investment. 

The intention is to allow capital and credit resources to migrate to new sectors of the economy that will help to build that manufacturing powerhouse: high-tech and green energy, in particular. What that means in practice is that any forthcoming support for the real estate sector will be rather limited.

A two-wheeled inverted pendulum vehicle includes: single-winding first and second motors respectively rotating one of two wheels; first and second control systems respectively supplying drive currents to the first and second motors; a sensor detecting a physical quantity that varies with a turn of the vehicle; a dynamic brake unit being able to switch between active and inactive states of dynamic brake being applied to the first motor; and a control unit, when the control unit has determined that the vehicle is turning about the second motor side on the basis of the physical quantity while supply of drive current from the first control system to the first motor is inhibited, activating dynamic brake in the dynamic brake unit. The first control system, when an abnormality has been detected in the first control system, inhibits supply of drive current from the first control system to the first motor.

An inverted pendulum type vehicle (1) includes a propulsion unit (50) provided in a lower part of a vehicle body to actuate a main wheel (52), a drive unit (90, 130) provided in a vertically intermediate part thereof and a seat (200) provided in an upper part of the vehicle body. A battery case (251) is mounted in a part of the vehicle body above the main wheel and behind the drive unit. The battery case is provided with an opening (257) extending from an upper part thereof to a lower end of a rear part thereof. A lid (260) hinged to the battery case selectively covers the upper end of a battery (250) received in the battery case. The battery is retained in the battery case with the help of suitable engagement arrangements (262, 263, 270, 271, 273, 274).

A pendulum absorber system attenuates torsional vibrations within a drive train of a vehicle. The system can be incorporated between an engine and an automatic transmission, for example, within a flex plate assembly attached to an engine's crankshaft, within a pump housing cover of a torque converter, or as a stand-alone unit between a flex plate assembly and a torque converter. The system includes at least one pendulum weight that dynamically moves along a predetermined path in response to variations in rotational velocities of a housing of the system and that is tuned to attenuate excitation of torsional vibrations within the drive train. A limiter assembly, which can include multiple limiters, is provided within the system for stopping movement of the weight when it reaches endpoints of the predetermined path, by mechanically impeding further movement at both of a first and second end of the weight.

Centrifugal pendulum device including pendulum masses arranged on axial sides of a pendulum mass support rotatable about an axis of rotation to form a pendulum mass pair. To form the mass pair, the masses are fastened to each other by means of a fastener passing through a cutout in the mass support. The mass pair is pivotable relative to the mass support due to a rolling element arranged to roll in a recess of the mass support and of the mass. In a section axially covering the recess of the mass support, the rolling element has a first outer diameter. In a section axially covering the recess of the pendulum mass, the rolling element has a second outer diameter. The rolling element further comprises a section axially located between the first and second diameters and has a third diameter, which is smaller than or equal to the first outer diameter.