Progressive newcomer Alexis Mercedes Rinck absolutely bodied Council appointee Tanya Woo in the August primary, scoring a cool 50.2% to Woo’s 38.4%. Rinck has every reason to measure drapes for the new office in City Hall she will probably move into, and it looks like the deep-pocketed outside spenders who got Woo’s buddies elected last year are counting her out too. Proportionally, Woo’s Independent Expenditure (IE) has spent 90% less this year than a similar IE did in her initial council bid. by Hannah Krieg

Progressive newcomer Alexis Mercedes Rinck absolutely bodied Council appointee Tanya Woo in the August primary, scoring a cool 50.2% to Woo’s 38.4%. Rinck has every reason to measure drapes for the new office in City Hall she will probably move into, and it looks like the deep-pocketed outside spenders who got Woo’s buddies elected last year are counting her out too. Proportionally, Woo’s Independent Expenditure (IE) has spent 90% less this year than a similar IE did in her initial council bid. 

Woo’s campaign has raised $453,000 from 7895 donors, averaging approximately $57 per contributor, according to the Seattle Ethics and Elections Commission. Her contributors include the real estate industry, CEOs, lawyers, retirees, and some of the conservative council colleagues who appointed her such as Council Members Bob Kettle and Maritza Rivera.

But typically, big IEs spend an ungodly amount of money in the last few weeks of a race on mailers, TV ads, and other strategies to get their preferred candidate's name and face in front of voters before the election. Last year, IEs backed by business or labor or both spent $1.6 million across the seven City Council elections. The candidate with the most outside spending through IEs won in every race besides Woo's failed bid for District Two. Between her campaign and IEs, she outspent her opponent, incumbent Tammy Morales, two to one. 

But IEs don’t seem as interested in burying progressive competition with their cash this time around. 

Many of the same donors who backed Woo in 2023, funded the victorious conservative slate that appointed her, and the previous three mayors. They collectively contributed more than $130,000 to Woo through the Friends of Seattle. This includes the Commercial Real Estate Development Association, Seattle Hospitality for Progress PAC, R.C. Hedreen Company, Goodman Real Estate, and HomeStreet Bank. 

But they don’t seem to be trying as hard this go round. 

A 2023 IE, Friends of SE Seattle, spent $168,000 on her bid for the District 2 seat where she had to win over a majority of the 67,000 registered voters. That’s an investment of $2.50 a voter. Now, in 2024, for her citywide campaign, she’s trying to capture the majority of 485,000 voters. A $130,000 investment from the current IE shakes out to about a quarter spent per voter. That means IEs, who successfully bought every seat besides Woo’s last cycle, have spent 90% less on Woo than they did in her last election where she lost despite spending twice as much as her opponent.

This marks a shift in behavior from corporate donors when compared to the last time Seattle voted on citywide council seats in 2021. An IE called Change Seattle pooled $414,000 for Council President Sara Nelson’s bid for a citywide seat or about three times as much as they are spending on Woo. 

What does any of this mean? Well, it could mean those conservative donors are stretched thin funding the awful, Republican-backed Let’s Go Washington Initiatives, the Republican candidate for governor, or maybe even President Donald Trump’s third shot at the White House. Or, it could mean these corporate donors are saving up to support their darlings, Nelson, City Attorney Ann Davison, and Mayor Bruce Harrell, when they go up for re-election next year. 

Either way, progressives aren’t really beating conservatives at the fundraising game. Rinck's campaign has raised $460,790 from 8,637 contributors, averaging slightly more than $53 per contributor Her contributors include unions, labor organizers, every progressive politico you can think of, and politicians including King County Executive Dow Constantine, Woo’s old foe Morales, and many state lawmakers representing Seattle.

Rinck also found support in a new IE, Progressive People Power (P3), that spent more than $190,000 this cycle. P3’s donors include SEIU 775, which made up more than half of the pot, some other unions, several failed left-lane candidates, and King County Democrats Chair Carrie Barnes who gave more than $42,000 herself. Didn’t know you had it like that, Barnes!

But as P3 Board Chair Ry Armstrong said at a fundraiser last month, progressives don’t need as much money to win — their ideas are just better. A recent poll by the Northwest Progressive Institute found only 28% of respondents voted or will vote for Woo, while 52% voted or will vote for Rinck.

Worried about Tuesday? Here's something to look forward to via @nwprogressive! pic.twitter.com/LQrEh7GSfV

— Hannah Krieg (@hannahkrieg) November 3, 2024

 

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