Mathematical Reviews will be at the JMM in Denver, January 13-18, 2020. The Joint Mathematical Meetings is the largest gathering of mathematicians in the world.  There are lots of great activities:  invited lectures, special sessions, editorial meetings, exhibits, and the chance to … Continue reading →

Louis Nirenberg died January 26, 2020 at the age of 94.  He made tremendous contributions to the field of partial differential equations and global analysis.   Nirenberg spent essentially his entire career at the Courant Institute at NYU.  Indeed, he … Continue reading →

Emily Riehl, a mathematician at Johns Hopkins University, won a huge prize from the university recently: the $250,000 President’s Frontier Award. Riehl works in category theory related to homotopy theory, such as $(infty,1)$-categories.  Her work has roots in earlier work … Continue reading →

The Current Index to Statistics (CIS) is now hosted by the AMS.  It is available on the MathSciNet servers from the URL mathscinet.ams.org/cis.  The database is openly available using a brand new search interface.  Some history The Current Index to … Continue reading →

The editors of Mathematical Reviews and zbMATH have finished the latest revision of the Mathematics Subject Classification, MSC2020.  The official announcement is published jointly in the March 2020 issue of the Notices of the American Mathematical Society and the March … Continue reading →

Mathematics is a useful tool in studying the growth of infections in a population, such as what occurs in epidemics.  A simple model is given by a first-order differential equation, the logistic equation, $frac{dx}{dy}=eta x(1-x)$ which is discussed in almost any … Continue reading →

Hillel Furstenberg and Grigoriĭ Margulis have been announced as the winners of the 2020 Abel Prize.  You can read the official announcement here.   There is a news item about the prize on the AMS website.  Needless to say, they have … Continue reading →

The world is responding to the global coronavirus and COVID-19 epidemic in many ways.  One of the most important is by socially distancing ourselves from one another.   While this helps slow the spread of the epidemic, it also cuts … Continue reading →

John Horton Conway died on April 11 of COVID-19. He was 82 years old. In the midst of social distancing measures to fight the coronavirus pandemic, a common refrain is “life goes on”.  But sometimes it doesn’t. Conway was an … Continue reading →

There is a three-minute video about MathSciNet now available online on Vimeo. It is also available as part of a blog post from EBSCO, which mostly discusses Mathematics and Statistics Awareness Month and the really neat book Living Proof: Stories … Continue reading →

The liquidity trap is synonymous with ineffective monetary policy. The common wisdom is that, as the short-term interest rate nears its effective lower bound, monetary policy cannot do much to stimulate the economy. However, central banks have resorted to alternative instruments, such as QE, credit easing and forward guidance.

We assess the dynamics of volatility spillovers among global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). We measure spillovers using vector-autoregressive models of range volatility of the equity prices of G-SIBs, together with machine learning methods. We then compare the size of these spillovers with the degree of systemic importance measured by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's G-SIB bucket designations.

Amid widespread sell-offs in risky asset classes, corporate bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) traded at steep discounts to underlying asset values in March. Contributing factors were high market volatility, reduced risk-taking by dealers and investors' reaction to policy decisions. Policy interventions that improve market functioning in a given sector can have temporary yet important spillovers to other segments through portfolio rebalancing by investors.

CPMI report: Payment aspects of financial inclusion in the fintech era, April 2020

FSI Briefs No 1, April 2020. Regulatory policy responses should seek to support economic activity while preserving the financial system's soundness and ensuring transparency. The recommendation for banks to make full use of capital and liquidity buffers should go hand in hand with restrictions on dividends and bonuses and clarity concerning the process for rebuilding them. Flexibility in loan classification criteria for prudential and accounting purposes should be complemented with sufficient disclosure on the criteria banks use to assess creditworthiness. The publication of detailed guidance on the application of expected loss provisioning rules, combined with sensible transitional arrangements, may constitute a balanced approach to mitigating the unintended effects of the new accounting standards.

FSI Briefs No 2, April 2020. Guidance issued by financial sector authorities in response to the Covid-19 crisis seems to suggest that international efforts to come up with operational resilience standards should take into account at least the following elements: Critical/essential employees: identifying the critical functions and employees that support important business services, as well as ensuring employees' safety and that they can safely resume their duties (remotely, if necessary); IT infrastructure: ensuring that IT infrastructure can support a sharp increase in usage over an extended period and taking steps to safeguard information security; Third-party service providers: ensuring that external service providers and/or critical suppliers are taking adequate measures and are sufficiently prepared for a scenario in which there will be heavy reliance on their services; Cyber resilience: remaining vigilant in order to identify and protect vulnerable systems, and detect, respond and recover from cyber attacks..

BIS Bulletin No 7, April 2020. Past epidemics had long-lasting effects on economies through illness and the loss of lives, while Covid-19 is marked by widespread containment measures and relatively lower fatalities among young people. The short-term costs of Covid-19 will probably dwarf those of past epidemics, due to the unprecedented and synchronised global sudden stop in economic activity induced by containment measures. The current estimated impact on global GDP growth for 2020 is around -4%, with substantial downside risks if containment policies are prolonged. Output losses are larger for major economies.

Using a cross-country sample of bank-dependent public fi rms we study the international spillovers of a change in banking regulation on corporate borrowing. For identi cation we examine how US rms' liabilities vis-a-vis banks, non-bank lenders and bond markets evolve after an increase in capital requirements implemented by the European Banking Authority (EBA) in 2011. We find that US firms experience a reduction in credit lines but not in term loans from EU banks.

This paper studies the relationship between bank geographic complexity and risk. We use a unique dataset of 96 bank holding companies around the world to measure the geographic dispersion of their affiliates. We study how this dispersion interacts with economic and regulatory conditions to affect the riskiness of the bank.

FSI Briefs No 3, April 2020. In response to the 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis (GFC), accounting standard setters introduced a new methodology to value loans based on expected credit losses (ECL). The previous approach, based on incurred losses, was viewed as procyclical and inconsistent with prudential objectives. In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, several prudential authorities and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), introduced a series of measures to clarify how banks should consider various public and private debt relief programmes in their ECL estimates and in their calculation of regulatory capital. These measures are intended to incentivise banks to continue supporting the real economy, while reducing pressure on banks' ECL provisions, earnings and regulatory capital. Supervisory initiatives that provide capital relief should be augmented by severe constraints on the payment of dividends, bonuses and share buybacks. These joint actions will simultaneously expand banks' lending capacity and enhance their ability to absorb losses. Prudential authorities face difficult trade-offs as they confront the most severe economic crisis in modern times. Encouraging the use of flexibility in applicable accounting standards, while preserving market trust and transparency in the reported financial statements of banks, will be key in fostering both economic and financial stability.

BIS Bulletin No 8, April 2020. Information on local labour markets and Google searches can be used to construct a measure of the vulnerability of employment in different regions of the United States to the Covid-19 shock. Regional exposure to Covid-19 varies significantly, ranging from a low of 2% to a high of 98% of total local employment. We test for the usefulness of the Covid-19 exposure measure by showing that areas with higher exposure report more Google search queries related to the pandemic and unemployment benefits.

FSI Briefs No 4, April 2020. Currently, insurers are more likely to experience losses from financial market volatility than from higher insurance claims arising from Covid-19. Few insurance supervisors have seen a need to strengthen or adjust prudential requirements to insulate insurers from current financial market uncertainties. So far, authorities have responded mainly by taking measures to provide operational relief to insurers from regulatory and supervisory requirements so that they can continue providing insurance services. These measures will also help insurers to enhance risk monitoring of their Covid-19 financial exposures. Some authorities have set out expectations for insurers to conserve capital through prudent exercise of dividend and variable remuneration policies. The aim is to enhance their resilience against huge uncertainties from potential Covid-19 fallout. Other capital-related measures should relieve supervisory pressures and reduce the tendency of insurers to manage their investments in a procyclical manner. These measures include: extending the supervisory intervention ladder, triggering the countercyclical lever and recalibrating capital requirements. The far-reaching impact of Covid-19 calls for sustained vigilance by both supervisors and insurers. In the post-pandemic phase, the extraordinary measures currently warranted will need to be unwound through a carefully crafted exit strategy that preserves sound risk management practices and protects policyholders' interests.

This paper reviews post-crisis financial regulatory reforms, examines how they fit together and identifies open issues. Specifically, it takes stock of the salient new features of bank and CCP international standards within a unified analytical framework.

BIS Bulletin No 9, April 2020. By allowing banks to run down some of their buffers, policymakers are sending a strong signal about their resolve to lessen the economic fallout from the pandemic. Such prudential measures complement the main policy levers: monetary and fiscal instruments. To avoid a reduction in credit to the real economy, authorities need to ensure that banks have the capacity and willingness to make use of the flexibility afforded by the buffer release. Payout restrictions on banks and risk-sharing between banks and the public sector will be key. For banks to continue playing a positive role in the supply of funding during the recovery, they should maintain usable buffers for a long period, as losses from a severe recession will take time to materialise.

Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies, and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the business cycle dynamics of international trade and its relationship with monetary policy and exchange rates.

The Covid-19 shock is placing enormous strains on corporates cash buffers. Corporate financial statements from 2019 suggest that 50% of firms do not have sufficient cash to cover total debt servicing costs over the coming year. Credit lines could provide firms with additional liquidity. On average undrawn credit stood around 120% of debt servicing costs at end 2019. However, access is uneven and banks may be reluctant to renew or extend them in the current environment. Sticky operating expenses result in many firms running operating losses, placing an additional burden on cash buffers. Estimates indicate that following a 10% drop in revenues, operating expenses only fall by 6% on average. Simulations suggest that if revenues fall by 25% in 2020, then closing the entire funding gap with debt would raise firm leverage by around 10 percentage points.

If you’re feeling awful, you know who to blame.

Let’s pick someone who doesn’t keep us awake nights.

OK, you’re gonna hear a lot about Joementum.

Well, there’s always the good old “incomplete.”

Test your currency with current events.

Always look on the bright side of life.

Suddenly, the White House loves Bernie Sanders.

What this country needs is another group with a very long name.

Almost every movie reminds Trump of … something it’s not.

What happens when voyages go viral.

Trump wants us to see him as defeating a foreign enemy.

Pre-existing health conditions leave one group particularly vulnerable.

The idea that this virus is an equal-opportunity killer must itself be killed.

Let’s concentrate on where the need has been shown to be greatest.

Many factors make blacks, especially black men, particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus.

The media is allowing disinformation to appear as news.

It will be a difficult road back to any kind of normal living.

He will use deception to keep his bungled response to Covid-19 from ruining his re-election chances.

This crisis is exposing the savagery of American democracy.

Another black man falsely assumed to be a criminal is dead.